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Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Limited Message Board

southernred_dog 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2015 7:48 PM Member since: May 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    The manipulation was short lived

    by doneatforty Jul 1, 2015 3:31 PM
    southernred_dog southernred_dog Jul 1, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    I sometimes get asked why I hang around a stock I don't believe in long-term. It is because of movements like this. GURE is a scalper's and trader's dream. Not big enough volume to let the bigger fish swim in this pool, but predictable enough to consistently play on a smaller scale. At the risk of killing one more metaphor, the last week was a gimme' putt. Only twice in the last 12 calendar quarters has it gained a nickel or more (net) in the last few days of the calendar quarter (once for 6 cents, once for 10 cents). A few times it stayed almost flat, but in most cases it takes a dive going into the quarter end. In 6 of the last 8 quarters it has fully reversed plus 5%-10% gain in the first one or two trading days of the new quarters. That's a pretty consistent return of 15%-20% over a specific 4-6 day trading period. It comes out to a 75% probability of a positive outcome; 20% probability of a negative outcome (with negligible severity) and 5% probability of a neutral outcome. Sooner or later I am sure I will get caught without a chair when the music stops, but until then I'm having fun.

  • Reply to

    Just Waiting

    by gocoltslionssuck Jun 19, 2015 10:07 AM
    southernred_dog southernred_dog Jun 19, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    I have observed the same. An explanation I was given is this is a reconciliation of the daily trades. The theory is some continue to get the direct feeds milliseconds faster than the SIP feed from NASDAQ, allowing them to possibly front-run using BATS with High-Frequency Trading. Also because of the few milliseconds difference, duplicate orders periodically show up in the ticker but are later cancelled during the daily reconciliation. Don't know if all this is true or not; just the most plausible of the ones I've heard. Not related to the Form 4 discussing below, but interesting nonetheless. With regard to Chinese stocks in general, I suspect there are many shell games going on from trading unregistered shares, private placements hedged by options and collateralizing unregistered shares as well as using multi-leg options combined with any of the aforementioned to mask the movement of money out of China to avoid currency controls.

  • Reply to

    Just Waiting

    by gocoltslionssuck Jun 19, 2015 10:07 AM
    southernred_dog southernred_dog Jun 19, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Trade, I am sure you are tracking the form 4s as one of your metrics. One thing I do note is over time the total number of shares and/or options are being reported when acquired, but not fully when they are divested. Take Min Li for example. Block 9 of his Nov 2014 shows 750k beneficially owned. Issued more options representing 100K shares in April, with an ending beneficial ownership of 650k shares. That means he divested the equivalent of 200k shares. When all form 4 filers stop divesting, I will seriously consider something forthcoming.

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