Your point 4) was the one I keyed off mainly in my own back of the envelope calc. Guidance is not impaired greatly by this and if you use the same metric in this sale accross total production then total value of this company effectively doubles.
This appears an immaculate deal and exactly what this kind of operator should be doing. Operating flexibility is confortably increased - net debt on the books and relative to cash flow decreased - borrowing capacity he same.
Back or the envelope it adds a $1 to the shareprice and speaks well of the future and the management capibility ofc this crowd.
RSI nicely tightening - look at 1 minute intervals on the 2 day chart - OBV shows accumulation and you can see (on the chart - look at V+) that positions are going in. On the face a nice set-up. And the fundamentals like NG prices plus the catalysts (Horn River) etc. support. Happy to hold here.
Petrobras has announced that it expects to increase the use of supply and special vessels from 287 vessels at the end of 2010 to 423 vessels by 2013, 479 vessels by 2015 and 568 vessels by 2020. The Brazilian market has seen an increasing demand for larger PSVs since 2005 (prior to 2005 large PSVs in excess of 4,000 dwt were unusual in Brazilian waters), and we believe the demand for this type of vessel will grow significantly in the next three years.
Note in UP's case the increased size of the 3 new vessels (20% up) ... these are right in the sweet spot in terms of capability and capacity.
Oil World projects soybean output in Paraguay in 2014/15 (Feb./Jan.) at 9.3 mln t, which is above the 9.0 mln t produced in 2013/14...
Argentina, which will sow nearly 50 million acres, joins Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia as the other up-and-coming soybean hot spots below the equator. It seems that everything east of the Andes will be in soy sauce bottles soon. In Paraguay, soybean production has skyrocketed, quadrupling in a single year...
Farmers in South America’s top five producing countries may plant 54.2 million hectares (133.9 million acres) in the 2013-14 season, 2 million hectares more than last year, the Hamburg- based researcher said in an e-mailed report. Brazil may plant a record 29 million hectares, up from 27.7 million the prior year. Argentina’s sowing at 19.7 million hectares will be 3 percent larger than a year earlier. South American production in early 2014 may top last year’s record of 145 million tons if rain expands in dry regions, according to the report...
… South American soybean exports have been "unusually high" in recent months, with shipments 4 million tons larger than the prior year in August and 2.25 million tons bigger in September, Oil World said...
Prices are expected to stay high as China suffers its smallest soybean harvest since 1993, due to heavy rains and flooding. That’s good news for South American growers: Nearly 60 percent of all soybeans entering international trade already go to China.
Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor in struggling industries, raised $100 million to buy ships hauling coal, iron ore and grains, betting that accelerating growth in emerging markets will boost trade.
“Since we think a lot of the demand for dry commodities is going to develop in the emerging markets, we think they’re well-suited to that,” Ross said by phone. Shipping rates will recover by the time the new ships are built, he said.
World trade in iron ore, the biggest commodity transported by sea after crude oil, will rise 7 percent to 1.27 billion tons in 2014, with China accounting for 88 percent of the increase, Clarkson estimates.
I agree and believe you are correct on all counts - including how to make money on something that is likely to make a secular move to revalue significantly.
I hold over 63,000 shares and have cash ready to buy significantly on dips.
Fully out of MHR - had a decent run there - fully invested in AXAS - feeling more and more confident that this is one of the best relative value plays around - besides being decent on its own merits. Happy to see that the market is catching up.
Amost for sure he was pushed out and pretty much along the lines of the scenario you have outlined.
Range Resources announced tonight good results and upped guidance - they are big in the Utica which is a good sign as far as MHR is concerned ...
Extract from Range's announcement:
Basin leading liquids-rich wells drilled in Pennsylvania continue to provide impressive results. 540,000 net acres of Range's leasehold is in southwest Pennsylvania where the largest estimated gas in place (GIP) occurs when combining all three shale horizons.
Production Guidance: Production growth for 2013 is now targeted to the higher end of our original 20% to 25% year-over-year guidance.
If still mildly interested in the topic - suggest you also take a look at what happened to HK (Halcon) today ... precisely the same timing and precisely the same effect (its easy to map the 1 day chart of one over the other using the compare feature of Yahoo's charting application).
Bottom line is that this had zero to do with MHR's fundamentals or the speculative set-up that is in front of those willing to hold. Best of luck in any event.
Those interested should Google around this topic, but that is what hit this stock today - funny if some Bozo from Capital One or the perhaps our friend at "The Street" were linked here and fed into this ... no doubt the hard workers at the SEC are busy right now (oh sure!) joining the dots ...
Bottom line it was a high speed, computer driven successful clean-up of trailing stop losses. Nice way the "pros" show their love for the "moms and pops". You'll see this as a fairly common practice on stocks that are moving with momentum.
The issue here is that the speculative fundamentals (not an oxymoron BTW) truly do underpin the climb here. Normally I would have cut my position to 50% by now since I am up 100% up, but not here as the catalysts are numerous and imminent. Do not get shaken.
John Shanahan, Revett's President and CEO stated "Although our expectation to return to production this quarter will not happen, our valuable infrastructure remains intact and we remain confident the Troy Mine can safely resume operations. The development to the I Bed, which is expected to initially access the North C Bed for production late next year, is the best development alternative available. We have at least ten years of mine life at Troy where resuming operations and utilizing our experiences in the Revett formation will continue to be our all-important bridge to Rock Creek."
I hold MHR (my basis is around $3.20) - based on relative valuation and industry dynamics (after looking at a bunch of co's - most of those at the SF IPAA) I bought AXAS. Without question AXAS is now relatively undervalued versus MHR. Although MHR, in my view has more speculative potential, AXAS is a better developer. The sector dynamic is strong and I expect both to continue. I will likely buy more AXAS as it conolidates on dips on its way up.
"could not find your info on Market Pulse YHOO message board"
Look above on this page - directly underneath the title of this board on the far right above the graph of the stock price. There is a link to "Market Pulse" ... which passes on chatter and rumors ... nothing any more or less than this.
It's also likely to a real-time market reference point to ease sources of disagreement between Southern Cross and the Menendez-Ross Family concerning any other type of financing (to inject into a model etc.) and/or give the family a market source of liquidity as this thing plays out.
BTW I think there are a bunch of people who agree with everything you have said BTW.