For about a week there has been a solid bid under this stock. Clear if you'd care'd to have looked. Someone was/is working an order - steadily at 72 moving the bid up and down by 10ths and 100ths of a cent and patiently vacuuming up anything/one who wanted out.
In a really detailed search you can turn-up other careful studies of the cash flow generating capability of this co. I think given the successive quarters that this has now been demonstrated people are increasingly convinced that this model is being proved out. It is a very good bet that a buy-out or roll-up is in the future here. On balance sheet cash alone at the end of the year there was c.13 cents a share meaning that the business itself can be bought for 63 cents a share based on yesterday's price. Also it is "discounting itself" steadily at the rate of something like 2 cents a quarter as excess cash presently goes straight in the bank. Theoretically this means that the share price should move up (on average) by this amount at least and that the risk of holding the shares (ceteris paribus) decreases.
Recent trading also has show a steady bid - you can see this as the the ask was programmed and held steady in fractions of a cent. Finally the company itself is thinking of a buyback plan.
So here we sit - very few sellers at current prices, a steady bid, insiders buying, the company thinking of buying, cash generating ... waiting to be bought.
5 cents per share should do it and would have significant signalling power - it would likely lead to a major appreciation in the share price as the cash generating ability of the company would be clear. It would likely also flush out interest from the private equity sector.
The major concern is (I think) simply the silence of Southern Cross and the fear of oppression of the minority (shareholders). Should they be able to play against type (Argentine crooks) and actually have decent business ethics. A personal contact of mine seemed to believe so and that is one of the main reasons I have held a position.
They are industrialists and they are apparently good professional managers (again according to personal reputation and also track record).
It was of course a shock to many the degree of mis-management that seemed to emerge out of the River segment. This was never supposed to be the case and this seemed fixable. And this says nothing of the larger plans - double hulls, OEM barges, retrofit of push boats and proliferation of longer term contracts. Hey they are supposed to "own" this segment.
Clearly also they is "Petrobras" induced anxiety in the offshore piece, but this should be transitory.
The real issue here is silence and waiting and anxiety. This was looking like a turnaround and then they went silent on us. Are they going to low ball an oppressed minority - do they feel like a class action - or are they going to do the right thing. I still say the latter, but I wait with interest.