So far only 45K shares have traded, and help me here, why is the company down another 5%
Yield now 8.5%................
Management has already announced that $6 million in additional operational savings has been identified.
With $94 million in cash, the dividend is safe or the next 2 to 3 years. And the business is about to experience an increase in orders.............
I guess the MM is done squaring his book this morning, the stock is moving upward and now in the $23.94 range. Glad I picked up 500 more shares this morning. ASEI is very, very undervalued, and as we get closer to the dividend date the MM will move the stock up, and the short shares will be covering.
So far this morning, I am buying. At $23.80 the stock is yielding 8.4% annually.
But more surprising is the level that the this narrowly traded stock, and the market itself, is valuing ASEI at!
This morning, ASEI is value at $171.36 million, back out the cash and the net naked enterprise value of the company is $76 million. That's right, ASEI this morning is on sale for $76 million
Really hard to believe. You could not buy the patents for that price, let alone develop the business. That's the thing about the market, it over reacts and creates great opportunities. At $20, ASEI would only be worth $50 million, or, 50% of 1X revenues.
ASEI is a great buy at these levels. Orders are coming in for the next generation of products. There is NO reason for the stock to have sold off 32% since the cc. I read, and re read the cc, management is on top on their game.
Just beginning to buy, and take my good fortune as a sign to buy-buy-buy, after not having my order at $34 filled at the end of trading yesterday.
Once again, at $25 the stock is yielding 8%. Do not be surprised if the stock is trading at $29 + at the end of trading today. The last shares I bought 45 minutes ago are yielding 8.28%.
Do not let the MM continue to run his game. ASEI is a stone cold BUY!
Naked enterprise value now approximately $75 million. Less than annual revenues. Think about it for a minute. Management just discovered another $6 million in cost reduction which will come into play going forward, and the company is involved in large cargo orders, and Federal agencies have already begun buying some of the new products.
Husky & Usfar,
The dividend is safe. There are only 7.2 million shares outstanding and $97 million in cash. This is an absolute no brainer. Once again the net naked enterprise value of the company this morning is a PALTRY $75 million. Try and rap your head around that. The company is doing approximately $100 million in sales, and the stock is valued at $75 million once you back out the cash!!!!!! There is no debt. The sequester hurt orders, but I can tell you that the CBP is updating their technology and equipment. It is surprising that the stock did not go up with the increase in bombings and terrorism.
ASEI represents strong and stable value at this price point. If it goes lower I will add a ton more.............
It is a no brainer acquisition for a larger company. Imagine, anyone can purchase ASEI at this valuation for a net cost of less than $75 million. Even at $150 million it is a no brainer. 6 new products, and the validation is the customer orders which are already taking place.
Buy yourself some shares at this level USB..........
ASEI is soo over sold at this point based solely on valuation. Please take it lower, I want to buy some shares.
Oh contre..............the stock and the company is a STRONG BUY at these levels and I will continue to add shares. Maybe you missed it $.05 X 7.2 million shares outstanding equals a paltry $360,000, but FREE CASH FLOW from operations is real.
I misprinted before. ASEI is a Strong Buy based on valuation and watch for it to close 10% higher by the close today. I misprinted before. Market CAP is $175 million, therefore the net naked enterprise value is only, are you sitting down, only $75 million or less than 1X sales (about $.75% of sales).
Translation: Every defense contractor in the world is, at this valuation, looking at ASEI as an acquistion. Clearly it is undervalued at this level. At $25 the yield is 8%, and my earlier assessment of cash burn of $14 million is erroneous, FREE CASH flow softens the cash burn about $10 to $12 million a year, so the real burn off the cash hoard is about $.30 per year, or $2.4 million (somewhere around there). Today's action is nothing more than a buying opportunity, and the MM is loading bigtime.
GAO investigation could always be detrimental, and the talk of an acquisition may be spooking the market (hopefully market is smart enough to do an all stock deal and make sure the deal is immediately positive.........as Donald Trump might say........be prepared to walk away from the deal).
Market my word, at $75 million for the entire company, less than 1X revenues, with a slimmed down operation with break even at $120 million run rate, ASEI WILL NO LONGER BE A FREE STANDING COMPANY WITHING 6 MONTHS AT THIS VALUATION. THE TECHNOLOGY, THE BUSINESS, THE ESTABLISHED CUSTOMER BASE IS WORTH A TON. This morning is a buying operation with a flush of small investors as shares are scooped up. Remember the CBP technology refresh cycle is just beginning, 4 or 6 new products, etc, etc, etc. ASEI is a $75 # with 18 months.
And the dividend is going nowhere with 87% of all shares outstanding owned by institutions.
Are you buying ASEI this morning. I am. I was almost stuck yesterday with 500 @ $34.00 yesterday at the close. But it did not fill after hitting that # several times. So God is on my side this morning. Bought 1,500 this morning after listening to the cc.
Market, imo, has totally over reacted, but it appears that it is a valuation reset. Which imo is a compelling buy.
At $25.00 the stock is now yielding 8% plus. Dividend already approved. Market Cap this morning $175 million, $97 million in cash, revenues soft, but backlog growing, and I am somewhere close to the southern border and the technology refresh cycle is happening now. Net naked enterprise value of the company this morning is $100 million (1X of revenues), for the premier American bomb detection company with a global footprint and state-of-the-art products. $13 million port/cargo order just received just one more example.
You once stated that the company and stock exist for the market maker. See, I do listen once and a while.
The value reset is extreme this morning, I am a heavy buyer at this price level for a debt free company with $97 million in cash and positive FREE CASH FLOW!
Have a nice day........
I had a buy order in yesterday at the close at $34.00. The MM dropped it there a couple of times but my order did not fill. Thank God, otherwise I would be down $5,000 on that one trade alone.
But the order filled this morning and the stock is now yielding 8%.........
The mention of an acquisition is the only thing I can get out of this, but it is probably a value RESET is what is really taking it down. ASEI currently valued at only $175 million, now is the buying opportunity of a lifetime imo............
The only thing I can get out of it, is the market is spooked about management's talk about making an acquisition..............or, maybe someone knows something we do not!
You can only give away $14.4 Million per year for so long, when you are losing money. As it is, it is highly unlikely that the company will actually make a real GAAP profit, of $15 million or more per year, to keep the dividend going. Even during good times. Management spent $60+ million extra on buying back shares to artificially keep the stock higher (I think the average price paid for shares bought back was $56 per share).
Which now with the fundamental turn down in the the business, proved to be a costly error.
The enterprise value of the company is approximately $150 million, or, 1.5X revenues, as the market has accurately priced the company's value in today's world. ASEI needs a much stronger order book to keep this game going at $34 per share.
The integration will take a long time and there is going to be a ton of charges and expenses to pay off LOJN employees. They paid $25 million more then they wanted to, and it will 2 to 3 years alone to recover that amount.
Company has plenty of cash to keep the dividend going for one maybe two years, but the government GAO situation has been completely unexplained. No amounts, no size and scope, no real what it is all about.
Any kind of financial weakness and this stock will slide quickly to the downside imo.
I am sitting here wanting to invest in the business and there is little to no clarity as to what is going on............
All segments reporting lower revenues in 2015. So the key now is proactive management and cash conservation. The oil patch is going to be weak, and even with price improvements the over capacity will adversely the Development and Cap spending even further out imo. I do not like to hear so much about the acquisitions that everyone is wanting to make, although the industry believes that NOV is a capable MA operator. Perhaps just like when the company was born with National Oil and Varco International.
Have they cut the dividend yet?
I would gladly sell my worthless shares that I bought 10 days ago for a small loss today, but there literally is not liquidity.
At the first available opportunity I will be bailing out of this one. $700,000 a year plus bennies, like my CPA says, "it's great work if you can get it".
Why is corporate America and Wall Street so corrupt and self serving?
How do we get rid of them? They surround themselves with "yes" men, conduct meaningless cc's, and the shareholders essentially are locked out of their own company.
Sure, an activists shareholder like Miller can affect change, but the crew installed now will intentionally destroy the company even more than they already have on the way out.
total for the first hour and 40 minutes is 277.........
With that as a backdrop maybe IDSY management deserves another $100,000 each for the two relatives who are leading the company down the path of..................(fill in your own description).
Without question, their pay packages are OBSCENE!