Wanted to check in on the Mad Cow -- yup, she's still mooing! Tricky Vikki still mooing in he wind. C'mon Mad Cow, get back into your barn!
I've been away for awhile & thought I'd check in to see what's shakin'. Let's see ... oh, yes ... when I last posted BP was trading in the $41-$42 area with all kinds of dire warnings and udder-shaking from our resident Mad Cow. And NOW we're trading at ... oh my!!!!! ... nearly $47 bucks! Looks like one of my earlier prognostications was right-on -- look for a breakout above $43 $44 area.
I got in on a little action with Stone Energy (SGY), a nice small producer, bought @ $26, presently $35. May wait for BP to pull back a bit & buy some more for nice +4% divy plus cap-gain ride back up to $60's.
Stay strong, Vikki -- at some point BP simply HAS to go down, right?
Just wanted to add: its' my belief one has to look at PM's on a longer-term basis. Like you, I believe the economy sucks and is getting worse; consequently the Fed will keep on truckin' with the big QE. Add to that the fact that government is sucking money out of a struggling economy in order to prop up unsustainable debt levels.
The USD WILL slide on the long run because the emperor has no clothes and there's little the Fed can do to stop the Armageddon that's coming -- the equity markets WILL correct. Maybe it will come in a series of small corrections or maybe just one gigantic collapse. The regime will do everything they can to prop up this house-of-cards until after the 2014 elections and certainly after the 2016 elections.
So there's really no point in trying to time the PM market, just jump in, grab some divies (if available) and write covered calls for extra cash to ease the pain on the down-days. There's nothing wrong with holding a core position long-term while keeping some trading shares on the side to take advantage of monthly highs & lows. Ain't nothin' wrong with doing a bit of speculative gambling on the side. I believe there's better things to do in life than going blind staring at charts all day long trying to find "A" waves and "B" waves or whatever.
That's my point! The fed has been fiddling with the market via interest rates since Reagan days and now they're doing it with QE (which was supposed to have been a one-time thing). Now add high-frequency algorithm trading to the mix. Remember the Flash Crash from a few years ago? That wasn't the first time, it happened once in 2009 & 2010, in both cases, the problem was caught and corrected before any damage was done.
Nearly one half of all trading these days is computer / algorithmic driven. That's why all the traditional TA methods are virtually useless on a daily basis. Even institutional traders have to come up with clever ways to mask their big trades so as not to attract attention to the ever-vigilant algorithms. Bot-driven trading programs take advantage of sub-penny price differentials & trade millions of shares in mere seconds. How can you use TA in that kind of environment? By the time you see a pattern and decide to buy, dozens of trading bots already hit that trade 200 times and driven up the price.
I think certain TA methods may have some use when looking at monthly & weekly data for long-term trends, but no one is committed to the long-term these days -- not when a 100K shares can trade in less time than it takes to hit the RETURN button on your keyboard (about 3-5 milliseconds).
Finally: using TA on a commodity stock strikes me as a futile effort given the nature of the markets and the variety of foreign influences such a currency trading, the price of oil or Chinese economic data. Gold & silver are used to hedge positions in other markets. All this stuff impacts prices minute-by-minute. Your charts are going to be all over the place; the patterns you see are just illusions, they don't really tell you anything, not like they did back in the 80's when the pace was slower and the little guy had time to react.