This statement should prove to be key for the pathway forward. Expect these minutes to be shared before Dec 15th and they will likely be material. Additionally, the PPMD advisory board (Dec 12) could pave the way for a much clearer understanding of the etep and drisap data vs natural history. Craig McDonald said it over and over, the etep data is impressive and he believes the drug is producing clinical benefit. You decide... Place your bets.
While I agree that long term (2-3 years) valuation could be much higher if SRPT fully commercialized their platform, it is highly unlikely that this will happen. The risk of commercialization is generally high, but in these cases where the patient numbers are low, fully informed and connected to the science the market peak can be realized quickly. With the big guys starving for revenue and new platforms, it's almost certain that offers are being discussed now. I suspect the leadership already has a price-point in mind and also knows the possibilities of full market value once the platform reaches peak sales. I suspect that spread is something like 4.5B to 10B. At the end of the day, the CEO and board will decide if the 5B bird in hand is worth passing on the 10B dream. My prediction... A deal is done in the 4.5 - 6 range with a company that is willing to build a separate rare disease enterprise and let CG run it. This would be a win-win for all and may speed the development of the platform and get these drugs to the patients faster. Either way, this one goes higher over the next 6-12 months. Stay long my friends.
700M - 900M in the US. xUS adds another 700M+. Until now, it was thought that RNA would hold that market, but their IP/Access will be difficult to defend. I suspect SRPT will take 100% of that market a pay RNA a single digit royalty to smooth the way.