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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

specman4 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 1, 2014 8:56 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    CIADM

    by hardfocus Oct 1, 2014 6:48 PM
    specman4 specman4 Oct 1, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    This is critical information. Expect the DoD to activate one or more of these facilities ASAP. The PMO chemistry is the easiest to scale and replicate quickly. SRPT's drug is the only one tested for safety in humans and the efficacy in primates was 60-80%. Some data suggest that their drug can produce these results days after the infection begins. Add it all up and you start to understand why the CEO is speaking very conservatively. Something must be in the works to stop this disease.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's up with RNA?

    by bf109gee Apr 28, 2014 4:59 PM
    specman4 specman4 Apr 29, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    You're spot on regarding the IPO language and the likelihood that SRPT will eventually gain that access. My theory is based on two elements: RNA needs the cash to sustain the enterprise and they may make a good deal that is similar to what the legal cost would be. More importantly, if SRPT had that access now, selected analysts would very quickly adjust their targets to reflect the new peak year sales for RoW. Most peg the EU to be worth 500-700M for 51 alone. This would justify a much higher current price and may help them prevent a b/o at a low multiple. It looks like about 33% of the stock is held by insiders and strong long-term investors. That's not enough to fight off the sharks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's up with RNA?

    by bf109gee Apr 28, 2014 4:59 PM
    specman4 specman4 Apr 28, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    You missing the forest for the trees. Although their drug has its issues, they have the IP lock on the EU. This factor alone adds value to the enterprise. If SRPT was smart, they would buy those rights for 50-100M and double the global peak-year potential for etep. I suspect they will ultimately win these rights in court, but will spend 20-50M in legal fees and waste time. If they had this access now, their potential market cap would be a multiple of 1.4B vs 500-700M. I'm long SRPT and do not buy stock in bad drugs, but this play makes sense.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pricing is in........

    by georgecantstansya Apr 23, 2014 9:24 PM
    specman4 specman4 Apr 23, 2014 9:36 PM Flag

    Word on the street, they could have sold twice as much. The demand is high and the shelf will clear quickly. Let's just hope the big shorts don't get any of these shares to cover their... The cash only strengthens their hand in negotiations and sitting on the balance sheet, it does no harm.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • The next few days and weeks will likely produce the mother of all melt-ups, short squeezes, rockets runs, etc. To make that happen, we need to hold the shares and make them pay to cover. If you were in for a quick trade, congrats. Consider letting it exceed your target. If you're a long time investor, this ride is just getting started. I've been invested in AVII/SRPT for nearly 5 years. Ive seen $45 peaks twice and $55 last Fall. Selling and buying back would have been a better strategy, but my crystal ball is not that clear. Even a novice investor can see the potential ahead. Stay strong!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Best possible win for the patients. The platform will proceed for all. This doubles the possible reach into the population of kids that need a drug. And yes, it doubles the peak year sales targets. Etep alone was targeted at 700M, the additional exons will drive that number to 1.2-1.4B a year. Put a 5X multiple on that and you have a starting bid that offers huge value. 7-10X would be more like the more recent M&A.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Prosensa PR tonite is misleading....

    by hardfocus Mar 17, 2014 7:35 PM
    specman4 specman4 Mar 17, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    The words chosen... "clinically meaningful" are only used when "statistically significant" cannot be claimed. This statement only proves what we already know. This drug would likely work, if it could be dosed higher. Due to the toxicity profile also shared, the risk benefit is questionable at best. Even in a rare disease where death is coming, the benefit will be scrutinized.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Bring on the shorts!

    by specman4 Mar 6, 2014 8:25 PM
    specman4 specman4 Mar 6, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    By the way, did you notice that GILD did a bond deal for 4B this week. They're pretty flush with operating cash and the money is flowing like water. What do you think they have in mind? Maybe CG's old pals want to get the band back together. No reason to buy, but GILD understands what the right acquisition can do to your market cap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bring on the shorts!

    by specman4 Mar 6, 2014 8:25 PM
    specman4 specman4 Mar 6, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    I think 70-90 on a pop will happen. The FDA will need to agree to accept the NDA and provide some clarity on the confirmatory trial that feels positive. Of course, if the base is higher, the pop will go higher. I believe the DB target of 213 included all stars aligning with a clear regulatory path, RNA out of the picture and EU open for business. The EU factor will take more legal action, but the path should be easier as the IP that prevented their access is based on a failed drug. If no one takes a quick shot at SRPT after the clarity is know, expect them to take a shot at RNA. Cheap play and the peak year potential doubles.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The more they fight to keep this stock down, the stronger the spring gets that will propel it up when clarity comes. And it will come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SRPT
12.32-0.12(-0.96%)Jan 27 4:00 PMEST

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