Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

specman4 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2015 4:31 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2009
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    RSV Elderly - The Slumbering Beast

    by bballgm Jul 10, 2015 5:28 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Spot on regarding RSV in the elderly population. Even with reasonable pricing, this market is worth 2-3B annually. Possibly 4B with the right age indication. The maternal vaccine is a bit tricky, but the market is ready for an alternative to the current antibody. This vaccine would target near-term and term infants and likely leave the premies under 30 wks for the antibody. With all positives, NVAX could support a huge market cap in the next 2-3 years. Flu data is due this summer and the RSV Elderly data is due a bit later. A double or triple seems likely in the near to mid-term. Of course, data can slip up and surprise sometimes. Not for the faint of heart.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Biomarin CEO Interview

    by raynemanuno Jun 24, 2015 12:19 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    I agree the CEO is sharp and confident. The 800M purchase of RNA was a great move. He got a cheap shot on goal for what will the next big platform in the space. Drisap may or may not lead the market, but it will be reviewed and likely approved. Noise is worth a lot as he broadens his footprint. Big win... Within 2 years, if Etep is winning in the market, he will sell his IP and access to the EU to SRPT for more then 800M. Just wait! If he is a visionary, he pay 3B for SRPT this year and own the space.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    You stumped me for a minute. The Drisa trial never got above 7mg without issues. The etep trial landed on 30 and 50, but the early work suggest it could go much higher. That said, higher doses do not appear to be producing faster or prolonged dysto. Limited data here, but the data seems to suggest that starting at an earlier age may make a difference and continuing at a steady dose could protect. No cure, but stabilization would be a win for the DMD patients. I've followed both companies closely, but I'm not a scientist. Know the data pretty good

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Statistical significance was achieved with etep at 48 weeks. That's where the party started. Overtime the curve has fallen slightly, but the stability vs natural history is meaningful and may turn out to look like a Beckers MD case. Beckers vs death at 22 is a no brainer. If you're SHORT and need to get out, consider doing it now. I like to short too, but this one can get dangerous fast.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Drisa does produce some dystrophin, but it was inconsistent across the boys in the study. I suspect it would reach consistency if the dosing could be raised another notch. That is the issue with Drisa that will greatly limit its effect and ultimate acceptance... Safety. Like many of the ISIS targets, the side chain seems to produce protein and other issues in the kidneys. Etep is different and the profile looks clean.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    if accepted price jump will be?

    by alt225alt225 Jun 17, 2015 11:08 AM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 17, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    Expect the pps to continue to rise into late June. Target: $32 Once they announce that the NDA is complete, it could pop a little into the high 30's and settle. If or/when the FDA announces their review plan, normal or accelerated... It could find a home in the mid 40's. Accelerated review could create a short squeeze and get nasty. The data surprise that could really make a difference is the muscle biopsy data. I believe this data should be considered "Material", based on the impact on the review process. If this data was released and demonstrated a strong correlation between dystrophin production and walking results... Big POP! Enjoy the ride. This drug seems to make a difference and is as safe as water. With the right CEO, this could have been done a year ago and muscles would be getting stronger now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Love to smell the short fear. It may settle a little, but it's heading higher and they know. As for a secondary... I doubt it's coming this round. With 175M in the bank and production already at scale for the US market, the burn is not an issue. I would expect the next fund raise to be at much higher levels later in the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout possibility

    by kgrichard5 May 20, 2015 10:46 AM
    specman4 specman4 May 20, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    After 7 years in this stock, I want to see it go the distance. That said, a premium b/o in the $70-80 range would have to be considered. Although, I expect the commercialization phase could easily be managed by the right team... They do not have this team in place and there are always real market risks. Best to let the big machines do that lifting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • specman4 by specman4 May 20, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    This will go much higher. At its current market cap of 1B, it would be trading at 1X peak US sales for etep. A reasonable multiple when approval is fully derisked would be 3X. Once revenue trajectory is clear, and it will be a fast launch and rise, the multiple should reach 5x. ($120+) Most deals have been done in the 5-7X range, so expect someone to move in quick to steal the company for $50-60.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The green-light on the NDA is big. The confirmation that the filing will be completed by mid-year, as planned, is huge! This likely means... NO new requirements! I suspect the FDA will review both drugs together. A confirmation of the filing and a notification of the review status should occur within 30-45 days of the filing. I expect they will grant an accelerated review for both drugs and announce an adcom for early Q4. With scale and fill capacity ready to provide drug for the US market, there should be no huge barriers ahead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SRPT
31.90+0.30(+0.95%)12:21 PMEDT