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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

specman4 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 31, 2015 5:15 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    if accepted price jump will be?

    by alt225alt225 Jun 17, 2015 11:08 AM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 17, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    Expect the pps to continue to rise into late June. Target: $32 Once they announce that the NDA is complete, it could pop a little into the high 30's and settle. If or/when the FDA announces their review plan, normal or accelerated... It could find a home in the mid 40's. Accelerated review could create a short squeeze and get nasty. The data surprise that could really make a difference is the muscle biopsy data. I believe this data should be considered "Material", based on the impact on the review process. If this data was released and demonstrated a strong correlation between dystrophin production and walking results... Big POP! Enjoy the ride. This drug seems to make a difference and is as safe as water. With the right CEO, this could have been done a year ago and muscles would be getting stronger now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • specman4 by specman4 Aug 26, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    I've been buying and holding this company for over 6 years. Wish that I had sold too many times... The NDA acceptance and the broader progress made on the regulatory process make the next 4-6 months huge for SRPT and the patients that need this platform. Thanks for the discounted shares today. I'll take a few more, if ya'll continue this irrational selling.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy, buy, buy!

    by specman4 Aug 26, 2015 6:31 PM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 26, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    Three Options for SRPT: 1) Continue a steady climb towards the Ad Comm and approval. 2) Decline for no good reason. The only real data risk comes in Oct around the WMS, but all signs point to continued stability in function. 3) Buyout. Although not the best option for the longtime shareholders, it would require a significant premium. Once commercialized, this stock could command $150-200 a share. A buyout prior to approval may land in the $70-90 range.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Last day of the month ,time is just ticking

    by usagary1 Jul 31, 2015 7:14 AM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 31, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    They could actually get notification of the NDA acceptance today at 4:05. That would seem about right given the June 26 filing. Although most CEO's would consider and ponder the best way to release such news on a Monday morning, I'd like to see Dr. K just release the big news around 7:45PM. The shorts would be crushed! The longs could enjoy the weekend and find the perfect seat for the grand squeeze on Monday. I suspect that an "Acceptance" with an "Accelerated Review" linking the November Ad Comm timeline would finally give these parents and boys the hope they deserve. The investors may also get some fair-play given the roller coaster ride created by a poorly managed regulatory process.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Froggy went a courtin'...

    by goducks444437 Aug 11, 2015 8:58 AM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 11, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Great post! I suspect that several "Froggys" are courtin' them now. Why not? The market cap is still cheap vs the peak year sales for etep. Most deals are done at 4-7X peak year sales. If peak year for exon 51 alone in the US are projected at 700M, the value price would fall around $80-90 per share. When you add some value for the follow along exons and the rest of the pipeline... Time will tell. Anything less that $90 should be rejected quickly.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Every day some shorts are choosing the weakest hours to cover. The pps rise is as controlled as they can keep it and they now believe they are running out of time. It's likely that this Friday or next Friday will ring the notification that will send this higher. At least that my theory. Sure would hate to go into a weekend with a short on this stock.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Aug 31, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Based on current status and risk, SRPT should be at $50 today. (That's about 3X peak year US sales) Once approved, $80-90 is about right. This would also be a reasonable level for a pre-approval b/o. Once revenue begins to flow, assuming the launch goes well... The pps could easily rise to $140-$170 level. 10X level currently held by most growth stage bio shops. Any higher just get frothy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Statistical significance was achieved with etep at 48 weeks. That's where the party started. Overtime the curve has fallen slightly, but the stability vs natural history is meaningful and may turn out to look like a Beckers MD case. Beckers vs death at 22 is a no brainer. If you're SHORT and need to get out, consider doing it now. I like to short too, but this one can get dangerous fast.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Biomarin CEO Interview

    by raynemanuno Jun 24, 2015 12:19 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    I agree the CEO is sharp and confident. The 800M purchase of RNA was a great move. He got a cheap shot on goal for what will the next big platform in the space. Drisap may or may not lead the market, but it will be reviewed and likely approved. Noise is worth a lot as he broadens his footprint. Big win... Within 2 years, if Etep is winning in the market, he will sell his IP and access to the EU to SRPT for more then 800M. Just wait! If he is a visionary, he pay 3B for SRPT this year and own the space.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Aug 31, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    I hope you're correct. I spoke with a CEO today from another small bio shop about this valuation trend. He firmly believes that the 5-10X and higher multiples may continue for several years for the shops that truly have quantified growth or clear growth potential. What seems frothy may just become normal as long as M&A continues and the need to buy revenue stays high.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    You stumped me for a minute. The Drisa trial never got above 7mg without issues. The etep trial landed on 30 and 50, but the early work suggest it could go much higher. That said, higher doses do not appear to be producing faster or prolonged dysto. Limited data here, but the data seems to suggest that starting at an earlier age may make a difference and continuing at a steady dose could protect. No cure, but stabilization would be a win for the DMD patients. I've followed both companies closely, but I'm not a scientist. Know the data pretty good

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Any explanations for todays bloodshed?

    by manonthemountain77 Aug 7, 2015 10:20 AM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 7, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    Perfect storm... Biotech rotational selling coupled with a well timed short attack. If you believe in the science and the leadership, buy a little. I just added 1000 shares at $31.64 and will take another 1000 if you offer. I believe the stock will rebound by the end of the day and finish above $33. Maybe higher. If you're short, Friday afternoon is a risky time for FDA news. One of these days real soon, the big catalyst will hit. If positive, the upside could be 10 points or better.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Drisa does produce some dystrophin, but it was inconsistent across the boys in the study. I suspect it would reach consistency if the dosing could be raised another notch. That is the issue with Drisa that will greatly limit its effect and ultimate acceptance... Safety. Like many of the ISIS targets, the side chain seems to produce protein and other issues in the kidneys. Etep is different and the profile looks clean.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RSV Elderly - The Slumbering Beast

    by bballgm Jul 10, 2015 5:28 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Spot on regarding RSV in the elderly population. Even with reasonable pricing, this market is worth 2-3B annually. Possibly 4B with the right age indication. The maternal vaccine is a bit tricky, but the market is ready for an alternative to the current antibody. This vaccine would target near-term and term infants and likely leave the premies under 30 wks for the antibody. With all positives, NVAX could support a huge market cap in the next 2-3 years. Flu data is due this summer and the RSV Elderly data is due a bit later. A double or triple seems likely in the near to mid-term. Of course, data can slip up and surprise sometimes. Not for the faint of heart.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Froggy went a courtin'...

    by goducks444437 Aug 11, 2015 8:58 AM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 12, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    I would agree. I'd add PFE to the list. Maybe even an outside play for Teva or GILD. Seems like someone in the rare disease space would be interested. That said, the big guys seem to always take the lead on these deals. The right growth company in the specialty area could really grow their market cap if they would man up.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Froggy went a courtin'...

    by goducks444437 Aug 11, 2015 8:58 AM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 11, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Curious. Who's on your short list of "froggy companies"?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Wasn't HGSI once NVAX's neighbor? .... also

    by wvwvwv12399 Aug 12, 2015 4:03 PM
    specman4 specman4 Aug 12, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    GSK stoke HGSI for $13.75 a share after the pps ran to over $34 and the company turned down a bid from Amgen for $35. (Published after the deal.) GSK is moving some operations and research into the old HGSI building soon. Although they may take a shot at NVAX, they play dirty and would not overpay.

    Sentiment: Hold

SRPT
36.89+1.68(+4.77%)Sep 2 3:59 PMEDT