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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

specman4 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2014 11:23 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's up with RNA?

    by bf109gee Apr 28, 2014 4:59 PM
    specman4 specman4 Apr 29, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    You're spot on regarding the IPO language and the likelihood that SRPT will eventually gain that access. My theory is based on two elements: RNA needs the cash to sustain the enterprise and they may make a good deal that is similar to what the legal cost would be. More importantly, if SRPT had that access now, selected analysts would very quickly adjust their targets to reflect the new peak year sales for RoW. Most peg the EU to be worth 500-700M for 51 alone. This would justify a much higher current price and may help them prevent a b/o at a low multiple. It looks like about 33% of the stock is held by insiders and strong long-term investors. That's not enough to fight off the sharks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Anyone know what's up with RNA?

    by bf109gee Apr 28, 2014 4:59 PM
    specman4 specman4 Apr 28, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    You missing the forest for the trees. Although their drug has its issues, they have the IP lock on the EU. This factor alone adds value to the enterprise. If SRPT was smart, they would buy those rights for 50-100M and double the global peak-year potential for etep. I suspect they will ultimately win these rights in court, but will spend 20-50M in legal fees and waste time. If they had this access now, their potential market cap would be a multiple of 1.4B vs 500-700M. I'm long SRPT and do not buy stock in bad drugs, but this play makes sense.

    Sentiment: Hold

ONXX
124.700.00(0.00%)Sep 30 4:00 PMEDT

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