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Joy Global, Inc. Message Board

spectracide 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2015 12:36 PM Member since: Apr 8, 1998
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  • spectracide by spectracide Aug 15, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Ichan just filed a 13D that said he would not NOT any shares as a part of the $250M repurchase program....

  • spectracide by spectracide Aug 6, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    If nothing would not surprise me at all to have someone take these guys out $1.50 to $2....they have $200M in sales....and you could be them for 1X that easily....or else, the Private Equity guys that own a ton of this could take it private.

    The stock deserved to get hit....but not like this....

  • Reply to

    we've bottomed?

    by pjcooper4855 Jun 22, 2015 8:55 PM
    spectracide spectracide Aug 6, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    This is WAY overdone....there are a lot of questions about the future...but they are trading at 1/4 of annual sales now... I think what is happening is that any funds that have held the shares are now forced to sell since it broker $1.... hopefully, if that's accurate, we will get a rebound once their shares are gone

  • Could this be what we are caught in....regardless of whether it applies to SIMO or not ?

  • spectracide by spectracide Aug 3, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    This is either way oversold in reaction to the Chinese market/slowdown....and tech in general...or something very recently happened (ie: the lost a contract).

    You may recall about a year and half ago...we saw this same incredible volume and downdraft and right after that came the warning that they lost out the competition because of design issues and were out of the new phones...

    It's the very high volume today that worries me more than anything else....

  • spectracide by spectracide Jul 31, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Cree just filed a's an SEC filing and for some reason I can't link it here...
    Anyone know what this is about ?

  • Reply to

    Obviously I am missing something

    by spectracide Jul 31, 2015 10:16 AM
    spectracide spectracide Jul 31, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    As I understand it...the cloudy issue is that the mix between leasing and selling railcars is shifting toward more leasing...which means higher gross margins, but with less revenues....the business is still very strong...but with leasing, the revenues are spread over the life of the the PR they noted that about $130 MILLION of Revenues generated in the last quarter was effectively being deferred over the life of the short, if they had sold the cars directly, they would have had much higher Revenue and profits (in the short run)...the positive on the leasing is that they have a really good revenue stream over time and are protected during downturns... I guess the street doesn't like it....but when you are still highly profitable with a great doesn't seem to matter....

    One other issue is that the float is very small (and about to get smaller with the buyback) and those who want out can obviously pressure the price downward easily....but if and when those who want it....the opposite will hopefully occur.

  • This sell off just makes no sense... The company is going to make over $5 per share...has a great is solid even with the oil & gas problem... yes there is a business mix issue between leasing and selling railcars...but gross margins are going up.... what does the market see that I don't... I've listened to the conference call twice and I don't see anything negative.

    Glad to listen to someone with sensible thoughts

  • spectracide by spectracide Jul 30, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    The market must just not understand this company and the industry.

    I just added another 900 shares (to my losses).

    I understand the decline from $80 to $60...but not to $40...due to the energy issues. But they are doing very well...will make $5 to $6 per share....have a solid 4% (now) dividend...and a new share buyback that will increase earnings as well... Yes, revenues are being impact by the mix of business between selling and leasing railcars....but they are attaining better margins. The market seems to be ignoring earnings and only looking at the revenue shortfall last quarter...and muted going forward

    I would think Carl Ichan may soon be interested in taking this company private....they make too much money at this price....

    Good luck

  • Reply to

    Fall baby fall

    by chris749a Jul 30, 2015 9:50 AM
    spectracide spectracide Jul 30, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    I did not expect this additional drop....the stock is now down 50% despite great earnings and a great dividend...obviously the Revenue shortfall has the street really does the backlog drop....conference call may have a big impact...

  • spectracide by spectracide Jul 30, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    Not bad overall...and the CC will tell a lot...but one sizable problem....their backlog dropped 20% from last quarter.....

  • Reply to


    by kjrpcfl Jul 23, 2015 12:01 PM
    spectracide spectracide Jul 23, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Hard to's way down today because of URI....which I don't understand either....URI was already down substantially for the year....they forecast revenues down somewhat....but not terrible and the stock is down over $10 today to a new low....

    But HEES has been crushed even more....down 60%....

    I actually expect the dividend to get cut in half at this point...and we could see $11 (though I hope not)...

    Obviously, the insiders either didn't understand their own marketplace....or we are totally caught in the herd mentality of the stock market...who hates anything to do with oil & gas, cyclicals, etc.

    I have 1,800 shares at $26 on a lot of pain....

    As much as I want to buy more....I bought call options instead to limit my potential losses....the puts were way too expensive....

    Good luck

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