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USG Corporation Message Board

spirach2 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 8, 2014 11:00 AM Member since: Nov 7, 2007
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  • spirach2 by spirach2 Dec 8, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Your stupidity, in choosing to sell BRK 2 1/2 years ago, at $82, and 1.15 BV, because your hemorrhoids were acting up (or whatever equally stupid reason you gave at that moment), when smart people were doing their best to buy more,... and then *bragging* about it incessantly, as if you had done something brilliant and admirable,... is SO awesome,... SO monumental,... it's really like Mt. Everest.
    We can only bow down before the *majesty* of your stupidity.

    Your stupidity should be in the Smithsonian, where all can fully and freely admire it.

    Thanks again.

    (BTW, BRK's P/Last BV, which you idiotically pronounced would probably never again exceed 1.2,... is now pushing 1.6.)

    You're the best, JADdie.

    Merry Xmas.

  • When my sell-order went through today at $148+, I realized we're now more than EIGHTY percent above the price at which you chose to sell out of BRK. Absolutely fantastic call, Einstein.

    Tomorrow, I will give thanks, among many other things, for having the wisdom to go big into BRK when it was dirt-cheap, and also for having MORONS like you to trade against. It makes things so much easier.

    Thanks again, Buddy. Gobble, gobble.

  • Reply to

    JADdie's Spreadsheets and BNSF:

    by spirach2 Nov 11, 2014 12:32 AM
    spirach2 spirach2 Nov 11, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    Maybe the unbelievable stupidity you exhibited here helps illuminate the unbelievable stupidity you showed several years later in deciding to sell BRKB at $82.

    I'm trying to figure out which of your assessments was the *greater* idiocy, but Man, it's a tough call.

    They're both REALLY impressive. Wow.

    All I know is reasonable people, like myself, saw May '12, at 82 bucks, as a time to *buy*.

    Your unbelievably bone-headed and pompous declaration that it was time to *sell* pretty much made it a certainty.

    So, thanks once again, Buddy. Your pathetic attempts at 'analysis' have proven very useful to me.
    Keep doing what you do,... please.

    (It's not only got great contrary practical value,... it's also just so #$%$ entertaining.)

    Bye now.

    I'll check back on you when BRK's up EIGHTY percent since you sold it. (Very close already.)

  • Reading the Bloomberg piece about the railroad today I couldn't help but remember JADdie's colossally stupid statements about BRK's purchase at the time of the deal. (Remembering his 'analysis' literally made me laugh out loud.)

    He told then, in his usual ultra-snotty 'superior' stupidity, that Buffett was an idiot to pay $34B, because JADdie's spreadsheet proved that it was only worth about HALF that.
    (No, I'm not making it up; that's what he said.)

    Here's the Great Excel-Master, 11/5/09: (I had to bookmark and save this one; the stupidity here was just too wonderful to resist.)

    ... IMHO, he's paying about twice what I believe the business is really worth!

    My Conservative Guesstimate of the Value of Equity per share:

    Copy & Paste into Excel:

    =(-PV((1+2.25%+3.5%)/(1+1%)-1,100,(32%-9%)*(1-36%)+9%-15%,0,0)*14708-9259)/340.435006

    Key to guesstimated parameters:
    • 2.25% = median real yield on the LT-TIPS
    • 3.5% = equity risk premium
    • 1% = real (inflation factored out) sustainable average annual revenue growth rate over the next 100 years
    • 100 = one hundred years of free cash flow to the firm, FCFF, under evaluation
    • 32% = EBITDA/Rev
    • 9% = Depreciation/Rev
    • 36% = Effective Tax Rate
    • 9% = adding back Depreciation/Rev after taxes
    • 15% = Capital Expenditures/Rev
    • 0 = first zero, Future Value, none
    • 0 = second zero, payments occur at the end of the period
    • 14708 = M$ Revenue, TTM 9/30/2009
    • 9259 = M$ Net Debt, 9/30/2009
    • 340.435006 = Millions of shares outstanding, 10/13/2009...

    Market comps now put its current value at something like *$90B*. (That's probably a little overblown; it might 'only' be worth more like $70B.)

    JADdie made it $17B.

    Gosh, either it's *quadrupled* in value in five years,... or, umm,... JADdie's a MORON.
    I wonder which it could be.

    JADdie, I'm curious, have you ever tried out your spreadsheets for toilet-paper purposes?
    At least that way they'd have a *little* value.

  • Reply to

    Over 75% Now, JADdo...

    by spirach2 Nov 7, 2014 11:23 AM
    spirach2 spirach2 Nov 7, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    When it's officially a Double, maybe we can throw a little party.

    I'll see if I can find a vintage DUNCE cap for you to wear.

  • ...since you sold all your BRK at $82, because your keen insight --and incredible mastery of spreadsheets-- allowed you to see what everyone else was too stupid to understand: that BRK would never again trade above 1.2 times last BV.
    Today, it's over 1.5.

    Might be a good weekend for you to snuggle up with your old sweetheart JB Williams again, and make all that nasty reality just disappear.
    (Otherwise, you might have to accept what a moron you actually are,... and we KNOW you're not gonna do that.)
    I guess you can always just work up a few more nonsensical spreadsheets. That might do the trick.

    Enjoy.

USG
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