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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

split29_2005 3983 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2013 3:58 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2005
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  • split29_2005 by split29_2005 Jan 30, 2013 3:58 PM Flag

    How best can they say...

    We regret to inform you that compiling the results has been a much bigger task than expected. Results are still being tabulated, but it will take an additional two weeks for them to be verified and finalized. Hang in there.

  • split29_2005 split29_2005 Jan 30, 2013 10:16 AM Flag

    Agreed. Tomorrow, but your HOD has to be 10% on the pessimistic side.

  • split29_2005 split29_2005 Jan 22, 2013 11:10 PM Flag

    1/31/13, 12 vs 24, $13.80

  • Reply to

    Mixed messages

    by split29_2005 Jan 22, 2013 10:17 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Jan 22, 2013 10:39 AM Flag

    So maybe I presumed too much when I didn't put in all the what-ifs. My post was focused on the non-refundable $5 million and the rights, not the follow-up payments, which require firm positive results.

    There was no suggestion that CLSN has lost anything. There was a question as to whether CLSN might have achieved more of an up-front payment. Sorry I was not clear enough for you. Us fools certainly appear to do that sometimes depending on the capacity of who is listening.

    Anyway I've just increased my holdings by 50%, somewhat nervously as a result of what I've stated in my earlier post.

  • split29_2005 by split29_2005 Jan 22, 2013 10:17 AM Flag

    China pays $5 million - non-refundable for the exclusive right to manufacture and sell Thermadox to nearly half of the world's population.

    a) China wouldn't buy if the Phase III results were not at least partially positive.
    b) Why would Celsion sell the rights that cheaply if trial results were expected to be very good?

    Assuming no one REALLY knows the final HEAT results, this seems to be a rather bearish play by the company and a quite a bullish gamble by China.

  • Reply to

    Believing in "darlings"

    by dmlongk Jan 20, 2013 1:55 PM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Jan 21, 2013 9:02 AM Flag

    If you've actually been writing the data down, show your hand to back up what you are saying or you are just another bagholder with an opinion, just another part of the "I think I am a hot trader crowd".

    I think you might find that the insider holdings are not as impressive as you'd lead people to believe with your post. However, something is always better than nothing. Tiresome as your endless pumps are, good luck to you.

  • split29_2005 by split29_2005 Jan 20, 2013 10:35 AM Flag

    I have had success buying stock and selling calls based on positive results for upcoming events. In my experience, the hype surrounding the release of the results seldom translates into the type of dollar figures that the long-term shareholders hope they will see. I like to minimize my risk as much as one can in this sector. I made some nice premiums this month, which basically offset the decline in my underlying stock. Since I'm not in the business to break even, I have to reassess February and determine my strategy for this coming week. A quick note of thanks to RIMM for making the month for me.

    I expect the Phase III results to be positive but it is hard to imagine that those results alone will drive the stock into the stratosphere, as some on this board seem to be touting. As a 'one-horse wonder' company, the general consensus seems to be that unsuccessful results will push the stock to the $2 range, meaning there is already $5 worth of hype built into the stock. I think it reasonable to assume that a fundamental movement to $10 is warranted based on the increased, albeit untapped value of the company. However, successful results open the door to partnerships or a potential takeover which will have a separate effect on the stock price.

    Assuming there is no actual agreement announced prior to OE in February, the stock price should be the fundamental $10, plus another couple of bucks for 'partnership' hype. so $12 per share seems to be a reasonable strike price for Feb.

    Things don't work in a linear fashion, so it is quite possible that a positive announcement might drive the stock to a high of $13 or $14 in the short term before profit taking sets in. One might gamble that the scramble of shorts covering and buying from investors with a longer outlook than my month-to-month view, will create such a bubble. If so, that will happen quite quickly and I may hold off selling calls until then.

    If this works as I hope, I'll retain my shares with Celsion in the $11-$12 range in February. We'll have to see at that point what the possibility are for March.


  • From the AMRN board, some guy named ticktack says:

    START quote

    Can you even imagine what a nightmare his life must be?

    I can see Kolemup with multiple windows open, all signed in to different board names, posting away on yahoo as if he would have any effect on share price.

    We know these things:
    1. He lives alone
    2. He abuses alcohol
    3. His room is a complete mess
    4. He keeps a list of his fake board names handy so he can access them as needed
    5. Nobody likes him, not even his relatives
    6. He is nearly a "shut-in"
    7. He is a hoarder
    8. He is very lazy and overweight but most of that can be blamed on his depression
    9. He currently has credit card companies calling him looking for their money

    END Quote

    Why, those are all the things we know about coldie-feddie-geier!
    As well, he works at a burger joint drive-through, he eats scads of Krispy Kremes, and he attends a baggie tree house party every Friday night after market close. He used to have a well-drooled upon Bartz-in-a-bikini poster but I think he has replaced it with some sort of Marissa objet d'art that he gathered from her trash during a late night stalking episode.

    Oh, and he's singing "YHOO to $20" for the fourth or fifth year in a row, still off key.

  • Reply to

    confessons of a paid basher

    by amarildose Nov 23, 2012 11:08 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 23, 2012 11:20 AM Flag

    If you believe this, I've got a few shares of Widget Inc. to sell you. Well written, yes. Fantasy, absolutely.
    Q. Why would he have to wait until he left the company to post? Could he not make up for the damage after he got home, or does he not have internet at home?
    Q. How was he solicited? I've pumped and bashed a few stocks for free, using logic and reason and I'm usually right. How do I get a job as a paid pumper / basher? I've never seen an ad and nobody has ever contacted me, or anyone else I've talked with, although there are many glib and intelligent writers on this and other boards. I'd sit at home for $18 per hour and a buck and a quarter per post in a jiffy.
    Q. Do intelligent and profitable companies actually believe that the market is moved by posts on message boards? ROFL. Anyone buying based on what is said by an anonymous poster deserves their "broke" status.
    Q. Buy AMRN. There, I said it. I'm long and a pumper now. Who's hopping onto the bandwagon?

  • split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 23, 2012 11:08 AM Flag

    Well thank heaven for that. Glad it's settled. I think I'll go out and spend my profit on Black Friday. Perhaps I'll see you there. I'll look for the guy saying "duhhhhh" over and over and talking to his hat.

  • Reply to

    A rational question, for Short players

    by cloxter2 Nov 16, 2012 7:41 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 16, 2012 9:20 AM Flag

    If one thinks that NCE is not going to be approved, that would be a good reason to short at this price, since there is likely to be a drop into the $9s, at least with a good chance of the stock being oversold. Then one might go long and catch any rebound.

    Having said that, I am long, having sold Nov covered calls. I "think" NCE will be approved but those who say that the delay is a positive sign may be overlooking the fact that it could just as easily be because the case for NCE is not compelling enough and they want to be sure to be perceived as having looked at all aspects of the decision.

    Either way, I am OK but I am not familiar enough with the NCE decision making process to say with assurance where they stand at this point. that doesn't mean I am blind to the possibility of a downside. There are probably others who have that NCE expertise and are willing to back it by shorting the stock in the near term.

  • Reply to

    Who's Listening to the Fat Kid?

    by split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 3:41 PM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 3:59 PM Flag

    Once a loser... always a baggie ;-)
    I'm playing with AMRN right now. Cost base of $10.50 sold the Nov $11 calls for a bunch and hoping for a close tomorrow just below $11 so that I can sell the Dec $15s. Have a look. Reminds me a bit of YHOO in its heyday. My returns are 10%-20% per month. Before that AEGR and VHC but the ship has sailed on both of those for the time being.

  • The fat kid, aka coldie, feddie, vodman and a hundred more, has walked this stock down from the $40s pumping like a poodle on his master's leg, all the way. Even if it makes a buck or two per share, there's nothing substantial behind it at this point so it's more of the hype that we've seen for the last few years. It even hit $18 a couple of years ago when the fat kid's previous fantasy - Granny Bartz - managed to convince some buyers that there was money to be made.

    Does anyone remember the coldie-mantra for 2009? "$20 in 2009!"
    2010? "$20 in 2010!"
    2011? "$20 in 2011!"
    2012? Yep, you got it... "$20 in 2012!"

    The very definition of dead money. See YHOO.

    And with a cost base of $37 per share, it only needs to double for him to almost break even! ROLF! Too bad the hundreds of phantom buys he and his aliases have made over the past couple of years won't even buy him a Krispy Kreme and a coffee.

  • Reply to

    Just another buyout rumor

    by split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 9:50 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 10:05 AM Flag

    You didn't notice yesterday's closing price?

  • Reply to

    Just another buyout rumor

    by split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 9:50 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 10:02 AM Flag

    Of course I meant $12.. darn keyboard...

  • Reply to

    Just another buyout rumor

    by split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 9:50 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 10:00 AM Flag

    I trust you are making a general statement and not directing that at me. I've been selling covered calls on this and plenty of other stock for many years. OE is exactly when these unsubstantiated rumors come out. Have a look at the open interest and you should easily figure out why certain buyers do not want this down at $10.69 and dropping. The play here is the $11 strike tomorrow.
    Is that clue enough for you, or do you want to wait until Saturday to post your apology?

  • split29_2005 by split29_2005 Nov 15, 2012 9:50 AM Flag

    Another rumor just a day before Options Expiry! What really, did one expect? No details, just another interested suitor in a list of interested suitors. It's "clutter".

    This stock is a buy because of the NCE possibility first and foremost. If it happens, POP and sell, or hold on for the chance of a buyout. If it is not approved, DIP, add if you want, and hang on for the chance of a buyout.

    Simple as that. I've got a pile of shares and I'm happy to play under those rules.

  • split29_2005 split29_2005 Nov 6, 2012 12:58 PM Flag

    Uh...the judge does not initiate a trading halt.

  • Reply to

    Yahoo Shorts Get Beatch Slapped!

    by nanobot8042 Oct 17, 2012 10:13 AM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Oct 17, 2012 5:02 PM Flag

    Still as dorky as ever, huh, coldie-alias. And you also told everyone to buy all the way down to $11 from the $40s, except for that brief period when you told everyone to hold and not sell when Microsoft came calling with a buyout. What a buffoon! You're holding onto a steaming pile of dead money and you'll never recover your costs.

  • Reply to

    now let the drop commence....

    by elmaestro111 Oct 17, 2012 3:51 PM
    split29_2005 split29_2005 Oct 17, 2012 4:06 PM Flag

    allow me to be the first to say (insincerely) that I am very sorry for your loss, elmaestro. ROFL.

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