My guess is that the sell-off will result if lower strike prices on executive stock options.
People tell my that I'm way too cynical.
But maybe not.
Not really. If you can execute the trade for settlement by 9/29, there would be no problem at all. If somebody sells you notes or shares too late for a normal settlement by 9/29, you would eventually receive your LEU shares (plus cash and new notes if you buy the old notes) via Depository Trust Co. That's my expectation anyway.
Today's announcement had the effect of bringing to everybody's attention that the end is near.
Of course, my opinion is worth at least twice as much as you're paying for it.
". . . residual post restructure bond value still favors bonds over shares."
I used to think that but I'm not so sure any more. Depends on how undervalued you think USU may be valued now.
Say you have $10,000 to invest and are torn between the notes and shares. At $2 each, that will buy you $5,000 shares. The same dollars into the bonds will get you roughly 3,800 shares (plus, of course, the accrued interest and new notes).
As with you, I still favor notes over shares but the arbitrage is bringing the values closer.
That's been a big part of the Company' problem all along. They think like engineers, are dominated in their thinking by lawyers, and, in fact, the presser was likely written by a lawyer rather than somebody who can be truthful and still communicate without always emphasizing the negative side of every issue. There's nothing worse from a communications standpoint than an engineer under the thumb of an inside-the-beltway lawyer.
Wingfield should find other work.
At $2.25 per USU share, Usec's market cap is $11.1 million (for 5 percent of LEU). So the implied market cap of LEU is $222 million upon emergence.
Ask yourself, sports fans, given the risks and opportunities, is that high or low of the intrinsic value.
So old note holders will likely receive exactly $30.00 in interest (or maybe one day short).
The major note holders (soon to be the controlling shareholders) likely wanted it that way for reasons that I don't understand. Apparently the interest stream is a big deal for them. Sometimes that happens, for example, when there are separate income and principal beneficiaries to a trust. That's consistent with the structuring of the new notes. That is, 37.7 percent of 8.0 percent (relating to the new notes) is the same as the 3.0 percent interest rate on the old notes.
From the Company:
"BETHESDA, Md. – USEC Inc. (NYSE: USU) today announced that it expects to complete the final steps necessary to emerge from its Chapter 11 restructuring on September 30, 2014, under the name Centrus Energy Corp. The Company’s new common stock shares are expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “LEU” on that date.
"The Company’s Plan of Reorganization was confirmed on September 5, which was the last major court action in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process that USEC began March 5, 2014. Details relating to the cancellation of existing securities (including USU common stock, preferred stock and notes) and the issuance of new LEU common stock and new notes are set forth in the Company’s Plan of Reorganization, which is summarized in and attached to a Form 8-K filing issued by the Company on September 5. Holders of record as of September 29 do not need to take any action as the existing securities are expected to be cancelled prior to the opening of trading on September 30, and new securities will be distributed electronically through the Depository Trust Corp. or the Company’s transfer agent Computershare on September 30."
Sadly, that answer depends on lots of factors that have more to do with you than the Company.
Got next month's rent covered?
"They can contract with anyone if they so choose."
I suppose, but would that be a good solution?
Another vendor could hang out a help wanted sign in "downtown" Piketon and see who shows up. Or maybe there are a few Iranian refugees who can get H1B visas to staff the place.
" DOE owns everything."
DOE owns the tangible property and most, if not all, of the intellectual property. But they still need LEU to throw the switches, read the meters, and shovel the manure. The expectation is that this arrangement will allow LEU to commercialize the project, no?
My recollection, without going back to verify, is that the large note holders are prevented from selling their shares in order to protect the Company's NOL carryforward (for income tax purposes). That means that substantial future income would be tax free, another plus for the shares.
My limit buy order for a few lottery tickets, er, USU shares was filled today at $2.81. So, that's my bet that LEU trades upon issuance at above $31 or so.
We shall see.
One more thought.
If Centrus Energy evolves into a sort of public utility, allowed by the DOE to receive what's effectively a statutory return, then that return ought to be calculated based on the Company's total investment in ACP, not just what's left on the balance sheet.
Or so it seems to me as the prince of fairness.
All I know is that the Company continues to state that it seeks commercialization of ACP.
"It is now almost three months since the Joe Douglas rig moved to BBW2 to attempt a completion."
According to a post on the IV board for MMR (#11069 by "cnrlong"), the Joe Douglas commenced completion on July 28 for an estimated 90 days of operations. So it looks like it may be the end of October when the results are announced?
I only see one trade today, a customer sell at 35.96, followed by the customary dealer deliveries. Maybe the seller needs the cash because she has a deposit due on next summer's rental in East Hampton.
The continuing weak price (CUSIP: 2033EAC2) remains a mystery to me. Just like King Ed, I'm hoping for a nice boost in my account value in the next few weeks. But there's obviously something I don't understand, so don't follow my example without your eyes wide open as to the risks.
I also surprised that the bonds haven't been cancelled with the common (USU) no longer trading. Usually these things happen pretty quickly after the POR is approved by the Court.
Mrs. Sponge is lurring me to the kitchen for dinner. Maybe more later. Enjoy the weekend, sports fans.
Ok. My bad. I misread your post.
But how has his trade worked out so far? FTR closed at $6.74 the day before going ex-dividend and hasn't traded within a dime of that close since.
"Funds can smell money anywhere. They are called vultures for a reason."
A few months ago I met with a well known distressed debt investor who acknowledged that this firm was looking at Usec's bonds. They had no opinion or position at the time (at least that they would reveal to me).
"There are no well known funds that are fighting for bonds . . . ."
What, you've never heard of the Sponge Fund?
Canuck, thanks for the refresher on accounting for R&D.
Regardless of how they're characterized, Usec has spent billions on ACP that were either expensed immediately, or capitalized and written off later.
Both give rise to the off-balance sheet assets to which I alluded that MAY provide a substantial investment return in the future.