Deutsche Bank 2014 BioFEST
Presentation date: Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Presentation time: 11:05 a.m. E.T.
Piper Jaffray 26th Annual Healthcare Conference
Presentation date: Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Presentation time: 9:30 a.m. E.T.
Here's what I'm seeing on the NAZ site:
BREAKOUT WATCH for possible breakout above 14.05, no resistance in area just above.
Type: True breakout from Double resistance. Target: 16.32
Maybe they've updated or we're looking at different Stock Consultant sites.
Regardless, a move to either $15.84 or $16.32 would be a nice Thanksgiving present for AVNR longs. AVNR shorts, not so much.
It looks like Yahoo lost this one. Basically, I posted that there were about 450,000 shares represented by "in-the-money" call options for AVNR in November. Around 22,000 in puts. Possibly a minor positive for the share price.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, if (1) during the last 17 days of the 60-day restricted period, we issue an earnings release or material news or a material event relating to our company occurs; or (2) prior to the expiration of the 60-day restricted period, we announce that we will release earnings results during the 16-day period beginning on the last day of the -day period, the restrictions described above shall continue to apply until the expiration of the 18-day period beginning on the issuance of the earnings release or the occurrence of the material news or material event.
In IPO's, I believe the underwriters support the share price for a period of time. Not sure that's the case here. This provision appears to bar major sales by corporate insiders without the underwriters' approval.
When the new shares were sold, I dug into the prospectus looking for information. One of the things I was looking for was the length of the lock-up period. It was 60 days, but there are some possible adjustments to that:
Our directors and executive officers have entered into lock-up agreements with the underwriters prior to the commencement of this offering pursuant to which each of these persons or entities, with limited exceptions, for a period of 60 days after the date of this prospectus, may not, without the prior written consent of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, (1) offer, pledge, sell, contract to sell, sell any option or contract to purchase, purchase any option or contract to sell, grant any option, right or warrant to purchase, or otherwise transfer or dispose of, directly or indirectly, any shares of our common stock or any securities convertible into or exercisable or exchangeable for our common stock (including without limitation, common stock or such other securities which may be deemed to be beneficially owned by such directors, executive officers and shareholders in accordance with the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission and securities which may be issued upon exercise of a stock option or warrant), or publicly disclose the intention to make any offer, sale, pledge or disposition, (2) enter into any swap or other agreement that transfers, in whole or in part, any of the economic consequences of ownership of our common stock or such other securities, whether any such transaction described in clause (1) or (2) above is to be settled by delivery of common stock or such other securities, in cash or otherwise or (3) make any demand for or exercise any right with respect to the registration of any shares of our common stock or any security convertible into or exercisable or exchangeable for our common stock.
I'm basing my figures on the 424B5 filing from Sep25, page S-9:
"If the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares is exercised in full, we will issue and sell an additional 2,730,000 shares of our common stock and will have 192,761,324 shares outstanding after the offering. "
Of course there may be options, warrants & restricted shares (I posted these figures somewhere), that aren't yet included in that figure, so it's kind of a moving target, but 192,761,324 shares is the most recent one available.
ole, no question that share availability is drying up. I think the EFT holdings may be as high as 7-8M based on posts I've seen here updating the figures I see under "Major Holders" here on Yahoo.
In case there's any question, I'm being a bit sarcastic. Here's the headline:
ModusLink and Credorax Partner to Provide Complete E-Commerce Acquiring and Payment Processing Solutions to Cross-Border Merchants
Check the news if you're interested.
howard, thanks for updating us. I'd been trying to post that information for quite a while this morning, but Yahoo was acting up again.
HSBC Holdings, the last one on the NAZ list that hadn't yet reported filed about 10 minutes ago. They're showing 61,757 AVNR shares, a slight increase from 61,670 last quarter. They had added 154 shares in the previous quarter, so it looks as if their motto is slow but sure.
One note on the NAZ percentage - they are basing it on 190M shares outstanding. It's actually something like 192.8M shares.
ralph, I was thinking along those lines. My thought was that Jefferies may have been accumulating for someone who bought AFTER the end of the quarter, and so JEFF still had the shares and subsequently sold them to a large buyer after Sep30. If that's right, it could have only been Baker Bros, though I'm not sure they deal through JEFF. I suppose Jefferies could have acquired those shares from the offering and is selling them for their own account.
Jefferies Group filed around 3:10 and they're showing a 7,201,069 share position in AVNR stock and a 277,400 share call position.
Guess that means they weren't taking the Wei-wei's advice!!!!
Remember that Jefferies is a brokerage and these shares might have been traded subsequent to this report.
koufax, my read is that BB is in until a takeover - their large stake would probably facilitate one. Of course that's just a total guess on my part and could very easily be completely wrong - might need to check into past BB stakes in bios to see what their usual M.O. is.
You do bring up a good point vis-a-vis institutional holders. While myself and others feel that a large institutional base is a good sign, there are some well-known examples of large tute sponsorship of a security and their subsequent stampede out of it - Enron comes to mind.
I agree with you that it's a good idea to keep possible negatives in mind, and we're all a bit giddy here from the stock's performance this year, so it helps that some posters keep an eye on possible problems. I hope that the "downer" brand can be more associated with the morons who post SELL!!!!, THIS STOCK IS TANKING!!! and other one-liners with no factual basis.
ps Hope you're not a Lakers fan. The youngest spookling is in N. Hollywood suffering, though he can bask in the Cavs team's success this year, and I think Kobe is looking pretty good.
I've been looking through some of the 13F's filed today, and I found 2 tutes that hadn't previously shown positions in AVNR, so we might yet see additional late reports - which would only add to the total since they'd have to be new holders.
Jump Trading is showing 71,867 shares in AVNR stocks. Additionally, they had 18,600 shares in call options and 12,900 shares in put options.
Cowen Group's report shows only options holdings (won't show up in NAZ totals). 236,600 shares in calls and 65,000 shares in put options. I'm wondering if some of the institutions holding options chose to exercise the option after Sep 30, in which case we'll see a rise in holdings in the Q4 reports.
They're showing 691,113 AVNR shares in the 13F they filed this morning. That compares to their 6/30 report of 89,497 shares, so they added over 610,000 shares. Following the trend of several institutional holders, they also show a 1,088,600 share position in put options and 371,300 shares in call options.
One other delayed 13F filing came out this morning showing Managed Account Advisors with 1,259 shares which is a small drop from their 6/30 position of 1,623 shares.
If you're checking the NASDAQ site, I believe only HSBC Holdings & Jefferies Group have yet to report, so barring a big change there, we've got a pretty complete picture of the Q3 tute holders.
Remember that Baker Brothers' 32.76M-share stake is NOT fully represented in this tally, as they acquired over 12M shares after the end of Q3 (Sep 30),
The NASDAQ site, in addition to showing the 81% tute stake in AVNR (remember they don't include some of the indexes), they are showing a total of 157 institutional holders of AVNR shares. Looking back, I believe there were 131 holders at the end of Q2, so it looks like we've added something like 26 NET holders.
From the NAZ site:
Increased Positions ... 95 .. 44,034,800
Decreased Positions .. 52 .. 17,078,239
Held Positions .. 10 ... 92,906,843
Total Institutional Shares .. 157 ... 154,019,882
Your are correct - they filed Nov 10. What I was looking at was the part at the top of the filing that said:
October 6, 2014
(Date of Event which Requires Filing of this Statement)
That made sense to me since that was probably the day that they exercised their options or added shares or both. Because they are filing as passive investors (13G), the SEC requirements are less stringent as to when they have to amend a previous filing.
krkaufhold, the information came in a Nov 10 filing with the SEC. Here's a truncated copy:
1 NAMES OF REPORTING PERSONS
I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NOS. OF ABOVE PERSONS (entities only)
Baker Bros. Advisors LP
2 CHECK THE APPROPRIATE BOX IF A MEMBER OF A GROUP (See Instructions)
3 SEC USE ONLY
4 CITIZENSHIP OR PLACE OF ORGANIZATION
5 NUMBER OF SHARES BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY
EACH REPORTING PERSON WITH SOLE VOTING POWER
6 SHARED VOTING POWER
7 SOLE DISPOSITIVE POWER
The filing says that the 32.7M shares amount to 17% of shares outstanding. There are certain SEC filing requirements for owners of over 10% of a company's shares. They have to report any change (up or down) of 1% in their holdings. You'll have to consult the SEC website for the specifics. Check under 13G.
AND they might not be through yet, Chico! Thanks for supplying the appropriate terminology to describe their AVNR holdings. Have a great weekend.
The Baker Bros. filed shortly after I left this afternoon, and their filing shows 20,974,677 AVNR shares. Remember that this is their position as of Sep 30. Their June 30 position was 18,558,487 shares, so the institutional holdings sites will show a 2,416,190-share increase in their position this quarter. However, as orfelioulises and other posters alerted us, they filed a 13G/A on Oct 10 showing they held 32,767,078 AVNR shares. That means that they acquired another 11,792,401 shares between Sep 30 & Oct 10. Those shares won't show up on most institutional sites until mid-February, which is one of the shortcomings of the way most of them report tute holdings. Since that amount is over 6% of the AVNR shares o/s, it will squelch our dreams of a huge jump in the institutional %.
Now, as to the $1 call options. I think it was traderalph who first reported here that someone had established a position of 48, 773 October $1 call options. Tonight's Baker Bros. filing, in addition to the 20.9M shares shows the following option positions:
Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc C @ 1.0 OCT 14 4,874,700 SH Call
Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc_FLEX C @ 0.9 OCT 14 1,235,100 SH Call
Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc_FLEX C @ 1.0 DEC 14 3,246,400 SH Call
There can be no doubt that the first position is the $1 Oct call position ralph (& I) noted in mid-Sep. My guess is that the Baker Bros exercised that option sometime between Sep 30 and Oct 10. They probably exercised that 2nd Oct position (the flex) also and possibly even the Dec $1Flex calls - though they may still hold those.
That would mean that the Bakers would have also bought shares on the open market OR acquired some of the shares from the 21M-share secondary - remember it didn't close until very near the end of September, so their buy may have settled in October. Flex options are different from the garden variety ones, so I don't think we can check the open interest.