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spook2b 183 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jul 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Record scripts tomorrow

    by lucumo2000 7 hours ago

    I suspect that sometime in the next few weeks we could see a bump in the pill sales due to the publicity we've gotten for the Alzheimer's study. This week's report wouldn't reflect this since it covers last week (before the report was released.)

  • This is for Sep18

    For the NASDAQ they show

    1,591,681 in short volume
    900 in short exempt volume
    4,651,851 in "total" volume

    For the NYSE they show

    309,005 in short volume
    0 in short exempt volume
    615,328 in "total" volume

    For the ADF market they show

    81,912 in short volume
    900 in short exempt volume
    195,255 in "total" volume

    Total volume of these 3 again about 1/2 of today's reported volume of 11.17M. About 34% of reported NAZ volume attributed to the shorts. About 52% of NYSE volume involved shorts (total NYSE volume is only about 1/8 of total NAZ volume though).

    Note the marked drop in short exempt volume from the previous 3 days I've reported. One of the valued posters on another venue has alerted us to a possible UPC restriction on AVNR short trades. My reading seems to indicate that short exempt volume is for "bona fide fully hedged and arbitraged transactions".
    So far I haven't see stats on "fails to deliver" for AVNR. If they are going up or getting close to the threshold, it could get very interesting.

  • Sorry, I can't do the math - too much noise here. Quiet down folks.

  • As I recall, SONS put another 2 years duration on the poison pill back in June of 2013. That means it would have run out in June next year. You could interpret this as them putting a for sale sign on the door.

  • Interesting! I wonder if there's something going on behind the scenes.

  • Reply to

    Reg SHO report on today's short volume from FINRA

    by spook2b Sep 17, 2014 8:04 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 17, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    sigtran, it used 2b that the NASDAQ counted both the buy & sell side of a trade, so that a 100-share trade generated 200 shares of volume. I don't think they do that anymore, but I guess it's possible. When we first started parsing the FINRA numbers, we noticed the discrepancy and various theories were advanced. I think one of them was that lots of trades didn't go thru traditional channels anymore - for instance dark pools. As retail investors we can only work with what we've got, and I've always felt that one of the possible advantages of a stock message board was to share information. As a small investor I've often found one vital piece of information I missed, and for that I'm thankful for the informative posts that find their way to these boards.

  • They have a POSSIBLE breakout alert if the price exceeds $12.86 with a target of $14.98.


    A POSSIBLE breakdown alert if the price drops below $11.87 with a target of $9.75.

    Again, this site appears to rely on technical analysis - support, resistance, etc.

  • For the NASDAQ they show

    2,012,853 in short volume
    195,865 in short exempt volume
    6,090,706 in "total" volume

    For the NYSE they show

    231,568 in short volume
    800 in short exempt volume
    852,098 in "total" volume

    For the ADF market they show

    56,987 in short volume
    45,658 in short exempt volume
    192,660 in "total" volume

    Again the total of all the above is very close to 1/2 of the reported volume of 14.4M. The short component of the totals FINRA is reporting is again very close to 1/3 as was the case yesterday. Recall that Monday's figures reflected short volume close to half of what FINRA reported.

    Next bi-weekly short report is due out a week from tonight.

  • spook2b spook2b Sep 17, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    Lucky $13 in sight......

  • I just wrote a very long and detailed post on options expiration this Friday and its possible effect. Unfortunately, the Y gods were evidently displeased and it disappeared into the netherworld.

    A max pain calculator I consulted set the m.p. value for this expiration at $6 for AVNR. Needless to say, I think that on this occasion max pain theory will be incorrect. It does, however, call to mind what might happen if all of the open interest in options is exercised Friday. I added up the in-the-money o.i. and came up with around 20,000 contracts X 100 shares/contract represents 2M shares (that's calls only, I didn't look at puts). I doubt that that many shares will be called, as some writers will probably close their position prior to the expiration. Regardless, it may have an effect of some kind - anyone out there with options expertise care to explicate?

    One article I read noted that shares of some securities seemed to show a "Monday effect" following options expiration - the price rising evidently from traders rebalancing their positions.

    One other options comment - I added up the Oct. open interest in in-the-money calls and it looks like 5M shares are represented at this point, so we could see a bigger options effect next month.

    Short volume 3,189,096
    Short exempt volume 309,214
    Total volume 10,349,590

    Short volume 210,728
    Short exempt volume 4,800
    Total volume 1,139,779

    and one I missed yesterday

    ADF (Alternative Display Facility)
    Short volume 78,316
    Short exempt volume 50,019
    Total volume 274,502

    Again, these totals equate to approximately half of today's reported volume. What is noticeable about today's report (as opposed to yesterday) is that on the NAZ, short volume was only about 33% of the total compared to almost exactly 50% yesterday. One would have to assume on this basis that shorts were a good deal less active in today's trading.

    I expected a pullback today, and was surprised that it was this mild compared to the explosive up move yesterday. I believe that bodes well going forward.

    For the covered call writers, I noticed that quite a few new option strike prices were created today - up to $20, I think. At some point depending on everyone's risk tolerance, it might behoove them to do an option strategy of some sort to protect their gains.

    Lastly, I see the board has been invaded by one or more moronic posters. I guess that's 2b expected for a stock in the limelight, but it makes it very hard to pick out the informative posts here.

  • Reply to


    by xlx_pool.shark_xlx Sep 15, 2014 1:40 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 10:48 PM Flag

    And, of course, we have this one which was reported by several posters today:

    Separately, analysts at Piper Jaffray upgraded shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals to a positive rating in a research note on Monday. They now have a $17.00 price target on the stock.

    You might think about doing your own dd rather than asking others to do it for you.

  • Reply to


    by xlx_pool.shark_xlx Sep 15, 2014 1:40 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    Here's another one BSbear:

    Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc - Research analysts at JMP Securities lifted their price target on shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AVNR) from $10.00 to $15.00 in a report released on Monday. The firm currently has an “outperform” rating on the stock. JMP Securities’ price target would suggest a potential upside of 20.10% from the company’s current price.

  • Not sure where they got that figure, I'm just reporting it. I think the post-split high of $17.50 is likely one. And it might take quite a while to reach that all-time split-adjusted high of $33.50 - I'm betting that is an intraday high and the close may have been $32.75 (now where did I see that figure recently?)

  • Some of the posters here have kept an eye on the point & figure chart for AVNR. Previous readings showed a triple-top breakout on June 10 with a preliminary price objective of $10.25. (as reported by jn_kelly)

    When I checked the chart on Aug 18, it showed the same thing. Recently, though, I noted that they'd revised their price objective to $13.25 (which I don't believe I posted). At any rate, with the share price getting within 16 cents of $13.25 today, I thought I'd take another look at the P&F chart.

    They are now showing a "long tail up", and a 3-box reversal chart with a preliminary bullish price objective of $32.75!!! Again, charting & technical analysis are often poo-poohed, but to me it's just one more data point to consider. I would dearly LOVE to see that price objective met. Wasn't there a guy here who used to say the stock price would go to $150?

  • Reply to

    Report 9-15-14

    by dankaeck Sep 15, 2014 6:42 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    In quickly glancing over the report, I missed that Gladys was flowing @ 550, but expected to go up as yesterday was 695 BOPD.

    Also, I didn't see the part that said they'd be changing their REPORTING FORMAT to a monthly basis, 2b released on the Monday of the 2nd week of the month - unless there is some specific news which will be released "in accordance with our full disclosure policy."

    I liked following the weekly reports, but this change makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Report 9-15-14

    by dankaeck Sep 15, 2014 6:42 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    If you're referring to the operational report, it's now out. Bootleg 4 & 5 producing, everything else either shut in or fracking.

  • For the NASDAQ is showing

    16,663,876 in short volume
    41,038 in short exempt volume
    33,455,548 in "total" volume

    For the NYSE is showing

    1,502,676 in short volume
    2,800 in short exempt volume
    4,435,156 in "total" volume

    Obviously, as we've discussed before, these totals are far short of the total reported volume of the 88.3M shares reported today - around 43%. Back in the bad old days, I remember NASDAQ double-counting volume, though I'm not sure that's the case anymore. I'm guessing that a lot of trading activity occurs outside of the FINRA reporting system.

    Regardless, I believe these stats give us a good idea of daily trading activity - namely that short VOLUME accounted for almost exactly HALF of the share trades reported by FINRA. I capitalized VOLUME because I believe a lot of Yahoo posters vastly oversimplify activity by the shorts. They claim that they're either selling to force the share price down or being caught in a "short squeeze." One could look at that 16.663M short volume on the NASDAQ and say that the shorts have now covered - not so. I'm sure that a lot of shorts (especially ones of the computer variety) are buying and selling and shorting and covering all day long - which accounts for the bump in securities volume since the early 70's when total market volume was less by far than today's volume in AVNR. Then too, there are a bewildering variety of hedge and options -related strategies being employed which makes it difficult if not impossible to ascribe price and/or volume movement to any one event.

    Today's move in AVNR, though, was directly related to the release of the Alzheimer's data. I've said before that anyone who has the misfortune to have a relative or loved one suffering from dementia in a long-term care facility would instantly recognize the importance of today's news. Here's hoping that today's news gives hope to those affected by this terrible disease.

  • Reply to

    MAUI PARTY at $15

    by tetonsnake Sep 15, 2014 1:04 PM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 1:23 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    AVNR biggest %age gainer on NAZ

    by spook2b Sep 15, 2014 11:36 AM
    spook2b spook2b Sep 15, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Sorry, that was 5-1-2006. I read the day as the year (doh) All-time high looks like $33.50 in 2000 - I think that was prior to the reverse-split.

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