They see VIP becoming less important over time because the chinese govt and investors and mgmt teams will all want the reduced risk of having blow ups on corrupt players/tours/activities in macau. Union Gaming, as more of a boutique consulting firm for private funds than meaningful research unit for brokerage purposes, is focused on all of that integrity stuff for macau operators because clients have asked them to look into it. Those who have read their report know they don;t really give much thought to December or 4Q results -- for the reasons I have discussed many times as noted above... what matters is that they think mass will soon be back in stride and that the 2H numbers will be back to growth trend... and, while dthe98 and all of his opther aliases have suggested "VIP is DEAD" forever, Union Gaming essentially says ~"corruption and illegal money transfers and concealment of dubious players is forever dead, but real VIP will remain in good stead, and so will premium mass, esp as new properties come on 2h.
Joining first "back in the water" Morgan Stanley, Union revised their rating from neutral to BUY, raised their price target to $31 (MS is at $28 -- easy bogey for 20% upside needed for BUY)and later raises) and suggests owning them before they all take off as the street gains comfort with the forward progress.
Lots of good news to come from here forward, esp for MPEL and WYNN... or you can focus on what the idiots at Mcquarrie,Zacks, karen Twang, Isis Wong, and dippy KcKnight as well as Shuli Renn, James Detar and the multialiasssess here have to spew about macau being a sell...
But a hardy F off to all of those putzes-- they deserve what is coming as I wrote with the stock at $21. And yes, the stocks certainly can still retestrecent lows, but serious money sentiment is shifting back to positive on the group and hedges are largely off if my optics.
Did i say F off to the two idiots with 10 aliases here? Yeah -- go F yourselves, all of yous. LOL
You have Shirley mason comments trying to dis Union Gaming's piece on macau on another thread here (unless he deletes them), and I called out his bs on that aliasss solely because prior to signing in I see he wrote some juvenile bs about shoving quant up my sleeve -- what a little F cork soaker -- on all 10 or so aliases he uses here. On this topic (his thread) his comments are disgenuine and lacking in knowledge as usual, but they comically reveal his lack of sophistication about the markets... come to think of it, he does just that on all of his aliases used here.
A prelude to what Grant had to say in his piece though, as i have said since November on many threads, the month of December will suck and so will the quarter -- but that has little to do with anything about what will unfold in 2015 -- a very tough comp for Q1 (last Feb was the end of ramping the new LVS cotai central and first CNY with all of the new Cotai properties up and ramped and this was all pre July's revelations on "tigers and flies" and jinping's "Foxhunt" for his political foes, say nothing of all the bs noise on visas, smoking bans, Lisboa's Goldfish Bowl, car trunk card swipes and closeout of a hundred or so marginal VIP tours that don;t matter to macau long term as the big/legit/ quality VIP tours are still running as discussed here often. Rough comps aside, the quality buysiders in these names know what matters is sustainable ebitda, and no one is doing that better than MPEL with the premium end of mass play.
Here's my take on what union Gaming's report says...
thank you Ed... with at least two multiple aliases aholes here, iy is good to see a few longtimers including grftt and yourself are still here. Better days ahead for Macau, and MPEL is better positioned than any other company for what is unfolding in Macau and Manila.
along with his 6+ other aliases he uses to make an #$%$ of himself everywhere on yahoo. too stupid... 78 posts on this new pos since Thursday. Click his messages to see EVERYONE tells him to go F himself on all aliases.
Here's what I stomped in November when he #$%$ on himself on pcln, expe and hlf:
"This is the fifth alias this twerp (he goes by various known names including idiotpumper/mytek/tahoe/blacknite/) has used on this board. You know, the moron who say he made billions short/long NFLX, TSLA/HLF and every other stock jumping around all decade. LOL I'll point out how stupid his moronic comments are just once on this heretofore unseen here alias...
EXPE did crush earnings (and revenues) that is why the stock jumped from below $80 to above $85 last Friday -- where we blew out half and the other half yesterday on the afternoon fade ahead of PCLN's news to pare risk trade allocations on the fade into the elections and oil going nuts south.
PCLN also beat on earnings and revs. No one need fret for little old us -- those who have been reading along as we go know we've run PCLN many times in recent yrs, and owned most of the PCLN below $1040 on the recent gift pullback (sound familiar? ring any bells?...) We blew out of half of PCLN at just below $1200 yesterday (biggest position of the 3 OTAs) and TRIP (smallest trade) yesterday. Out of PCLN just below $1200 and the other half today at $1110.
HLF? Out of the core at $80..." [and hedged out the trade piece last yr at $80 too a year ago... then a few small trades on the bounces before the capitulation].
Here's news for the little cork soaker -- back to very long PCLN on bs dip last week. Currency hits indicated, yes, but lots of travel to Europe this year on the currency advantage and fuel impacts putting consumer discretionary back in daylight now.
Anyone reading here knows the mpel story-- core at $17 (excl hedge gains) - trade chunk basis $25 excl hedge gains and pair trade offsets. 100% long again.
Good to read this exec team's perspectives considering that Galaxy is "not worried" about tables, visas, diversification, employees, GGR or even VIP growing again soon, when they are in a significantly weaker position on all of those fronts than is MPEL. D'YA THINK JUST MAYBE THEY UNDERSTAND 9 OR THE 10 LARGEST JUNKET OPERATORS ARE NOT CLOSING DOWN ANYTHING, AND THAT DAVID GROUP ONLY CLOSE 3 OF THEIR 7 ROOMS ON MACAU? (caps not intended, but F retyping. LOL)
“We were lucky to be given the opportunity to enter the Macau market in in 2002,” said the chairman, adding that the company’s aims were “aligned” with the Macau government’s goal of developing the city as a “world centre of leisure and tourism”.
Galaxy Entertainment’s vice chairman Francis Lui said the firm’s commitment to diversifying the local economy was strong. He said that the company would also be giving more detail shortly on its plans for non-gaming facilities on neighbouring Hengqin Island – a special economic zone of mainland China, next door to Cotai.
But he said the city “needed to address” its logistics and transportation systems before it could become competitive globally in the conferences market.
Mr Lui added: “Because of the huge denominator in the gaming segment, it takes time to see a clear shift with more and more non-gaming.”
Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
Jan 23, 2015 Newsdesk Latest news, Macau, Top of the deck
Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
A senior Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd executive on Friday said he believed the Macau government would think “very carefully” before deciding whether to increase Macau’s effective tax rate on gaming from its current level of 39 percent. A possible four-percentage point rise to 43 percent was mentioned recently by brokerage CLSA Ltd.
Mr Lui stated regarding the tax issue: “We are realistic [enough] to say the government will look into all aspects before making a decision. This is a major decision to be making, and I think the government would be making such a decision very carefully.”
Galaxy Entertainment said at Friday’s press conference it is aiming to open Galaxy Macau Phase 2 with “the majority” of its facilities on offer to the public.
But there was no detail on how many new-to-market gaming tables the scheme would have either at its launch on May 27 or after launch.
Galaxy Entertainment has said in previous public statements that Phase 2 has capacity for 500 tables and 1,000 slot machines.
Robert Drake, chief financial officer of Galaxy Entertainment, told the media briefing in Macau: “Our intention is to open with the majority of our operations as we have done historically with Phase 1. But as far as tables are concerned… we are going through that process right now of working with the government on the submissions… and we are quite confident we will get a sufficient amount of tables to generate the returns we have been forecasting.”
Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
Jan 23, 2015 Newsdesk Latest news, Macau, Top of the deck
Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
A senior Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd executive on Friday said he believed the Macau government would think “very carefully” before deciding whether to in
let's hope the rest of the "wrongway" analyst group remains negative until the reversal is well underway... they will if Maquarrie, Credit Suisse, WFC's Mcknight and Isis Wong and Karen Twang drivel along with Shuli's bent is any indication.
and check out the press on what Li (Beijing overseer) had to say tuesday... he makes it clear that they want diversification and oversight to eliminate illegal money transfers, fraud and prostitution (MPEL has no institutionalized prostitution or "Goldfish Bowl" such as the longstanding Lisboa's "protection" organization for the working girls there LOL)... but Li's comments make it abundantly clear that Beijing wants to avoid restraining the growth of Macau (i.e. tax receipts) in the process.
Good to see them pump some liquidity into the small and medium sized banks in china today... good to see them use some of their treasure chest to patch some leaks in the hull.
Separately, unreal to see Shuli at it again in Barron;s today.
MPEL is not exiting HK exchange for any unsettling reason as discussed here when they did it and by Lawrence ho last week. What Lawrence did not discuss was that NASDAQ rules do not require 25% ownership apart from designated insiders as does the HK listing agreement.
The second "scary" thing she ridiculously repeats from the clowns at McQuarrie Research (who must have clients remaining unhedged short down here at these washout levels just ahead of major upside ebitda catalysts coming for MPEL in particular) is that a "major VIP operator" is pulling out of Macau. She first regurgitated that incorrect comment last week when mcwquarrie or another cheeseball analyst (I'll pass on looking for the stupidity) first reported that "news" and while Shuli corrects herself in the next paragraph to say only 3 of 7 cage rooms are being vacated ("temporarily" they said -- until things settle down as the David Group clarified for the asking the next day), she also includes the reference to her errant earlier piece on that bs. Too stupid to laugh.
The third item involving Sands exec retiring, as if under a cloud, is a ridiculous attempt by rto spew uncertainty in my view... a professional publication really ought to talk to the company before writing such spew and doubly so for Shuli to repeat since Shel Adelsen has already made it clear (again, for the asking) that the guy is retiring for personal health reasons. That guy has been a great player for LVS over time, and his latest hat trick was to get the new regime to immediately remove the permit/approval hurdles put in front of LVS by Francis Tam re completing the Parisian on schedule.
p.s. for the peck worried about us, back to 100% net long on the gift this morning
Good comments. let's review... especially given darnite's joke that "VIP is gone" (sounds just like dthe98s "never coming back huh .. diversionary nonsense repeated dozens of times on his many aliases no matter refuted with facts. Although "adj" VIP doesn't really matter to MPEL (95% of ebitda is mass and will be even better once SC is opened on macau) , VIP play is continuing along quite well all considered at the largest VIP tours... onlyone has had its license suspended (over a year ago for fraud) and now David Group has scaled back to just 4 from 7 rooms
If you have not, see Morgan Stanley's recent first call pieces on why that group (that was pretty good until they lost their minds on the noise last summer until the real news of Xi Jinping's "crackdown" on political foes and gov't officials on the "shady deals" all came to bright lights with former China Security Minster Zhou's arrest in late July) is now bullish on Macau.
As noted then and subsequently here, that MS turn to brightly negative last summer was timed directly with Jinping reemphasizing that they were now going into "Fox Hunt" mode, seeking to recover funds illegally taken from govt interests and "illicitly transferred" out of China. Some of that money and those "tigers and flies" found their way to Vegas for May and June and up through July... but that all ended the 21 analysts freshly touting the "Vegas resurgence" -- precisely at the end of July. Fun to point out again that Ho's reset was also at this time... when he told the world mass was going to run at more like half the 35% or so seen 1H14 (largely on conversion to direct credit play away from small to large VIP tours).
Now MS has come in out of the woods to say the stocks will soon begin to discount coming 2H catalysts -- as soon as during THIS MONTH.
Looking forward to the update from the exec teams on the U.S. listed companies over the next couple of weeks..
I thought I already had you on ignore putz breath, but you calling me clueless is probably the most ironic thing ever posted here.
The point of the analyst's report (and the article if you can read at the 4th grade level) is that she and others have blown UnionPay WAY out of proportion and that is not just with respect to last month's "new measures" but going back to last summer. As she writes in her update, the "new review measures" are really nothing new at all; instead they merely restate the reality that ALL ILLICIT MONEY TRANSFERS are going to be found out as they are carefully scrutinizing all large transactions. And "large" here is in the context of debit/credit card cash withdrawals -- here's some more "homework" for you -- VIP cage room players are not going out to pawn shops for cash.
Since you are the new moron here, you really ought to do some remedial "homework" reading on these terms "unauthorized swipe machines" -- it is all old news and fun to see an analyst who has written negatively on it 5-6 times suggest that VIP play is reliant on swipes for 15% of volume. Too funny.
Reviewing the math seriously, the 8 properties currently under development will essentially build out the remaining entitled Cotai land bank (except for follow on phases of Studio City and ???), so using the current table count, that would mean an average of about 240 tables per property would be available. From there, they could "extend" the 3% ave increase in table count for years... Since there will be no land left to develop on Macau that would mean a couple hundred tables per year could be split up amongst the existing properties.
I wonder how much of what Leong Tac said was lost in translation to English in the Macau press this morning. One can take away that the table limits are not really a problem for the developers, more of a tool to ensure they know macau officials really do want some quality tourism attractions beyond fabulous casino facilities.
On the gaming tax topic, beyond the Laffer curve perspective, and quite apart from the draconian gloom one can hope is there if one is short these Macau names, it may be that in his native tongue the new Finance Secretary merely commented that they will review taxes in a couple of years to see where things stand. That is entirely reasonable perspective... and not saying they plan to ruin GGR permanently and then make up for taxes on the lost revenue by raising the rate on a smaller revenue base.
Goog that title to see the Credit Suisse analyst making fun of herself... incredible to think people that incompetent can retain their jobs, even if they work 90 hrs a week in grimy little cubicles.
And check out those dazzling stats she spews forth on how much UnionPay cards fund for mass and also VIP -- 10-15% on the latter she says. Talk about clueless.
That said, she does say the "concerns may be overblown" that this meeting to review existing information sharing between originating and settling banks somehow means anything to Macau, and there she goes again, saying the "corruption crackdown on Macau" is what this is all about.
Unless one is a political enemy of current leadership in Beijing or a known "shady deal"/private club #$%$ being hunted down by the new security minister, there is no "corruption crackdown on macau" unless one is talking about executives organizing "protection" in the form of skimming from the working girls at Lisboa's now vacant "goldfish bowl" where #$%$ parade around the loop, or those involved in illicit (i.e., illegal/non-compliant with established rules) transfers of money away from china. Again, gaming on a VIP junket is perfectly legal -- just ask the big tours, including David Group, that continue to take clients to play in luxury facilities there daily.
On the David Group note, they are shutting down only 4 of their 7 rooms -- likely some of that VIP play is being redirected to Manila. :) That leaves 9 of the top 10 junkets still running the same number of rooms, David Group with 4 of 7 still running, and only one former big junket in Macau under investigation for criminal fraud (compare with less severe compliance mistakes) against the party.
In total then, the politicians have a long way to go to "kill" the golden goose, but they do continue to throw rocks at it of late (makes you wonder if "they" have hedge fund pals short for a day or two more? LOL)... and should have given a bit more thought and care to the new "politically sensitive" comments on ~"gee, in a couple of years we will review how the concessionaires have done with diversifying away from just gaming, and, depending on how things are going up through our 'mid term review', maybe we will review our tax policy then too."
Based on Leong's Tac's previous public relations efforts and visible policy leanings, it has been easy to say he "gets" what Macau needs to continue developing the economy, tax revenues and employment... He was a math major in college but the news from the press conference yesterday reflects a basic lack of understanding of economics. Someone ought to send him some of Art Laffer's baseline curve charts/thesis on what happens to collected revenue (and derivatively, capital investment and employment) when taxes are increased...
Then maybe someone can sit down with Tac and show him a comparison of what Macau has now (taxes and revenues) and to reduced taxes happening in Manila and elsewhere in the AP and what Abe is likely to do in Japan. Butching policy in Macau would be shortsighted.
That said, a few percentage points on gaming revs doesn't materially change the picture in Macau -- at least not for model citizen MPEL as Studio city comes into focus.
Tac's running commentary has been very supportive of the gaming industry and he very recently showed responsiveness with LVS' approvals for Parisian getting done within a week of his swear in, and offered up favorable commentary discussing the ongoing economic development associated with the new "casino properties" (incl Studio City) coming on line this year, all of which has been encouraging with regard to thoughtful policy, and even moreso given SC's best in class "diversification."
Yet last week Leong Tac's q&a with local press made it clear that the new leadership in macau is apparently not ready to commit on a few policy items prior to review, seemingly posturing to ensure that even projects currently under development bend towards offering "diversified entertainment" apart from primary focus on gaming operations. He told reporters that they generally intend to continue with ave of 3% new table policy through 2022 (old news, but these are not laws or even rules and are rather policy statements they have not enforced since started in 2012, yet if played out would mean that the eight new properties under construction would get an average of only 60 tables per new property -- a result obviously at odds with the "fair and reasonable" concept all developers are counting on). Tac also said they will leave open the topic of whether to modify current gaming revenue tax policy.
Separately, another topic in the Macau media over the weekend revisited prior calls (union leadership pushing?) to have the 6 concessionaires perhaps have a new entrant in the form of a Nationalized (Macau) owned casino. The buzz around this suggests advantaging Chinese-owned enterprise(s) vs those owned by [US] interests.
These topics are less than supportive of Macau, its economy, employment (current and planned) and the companies developing the current $25B queue of casino properties in Cotai. Hopefully the exec teams will have clarity on the Q4 calls (50% hedged until then)
here's more on VIP junket curtailment from another article, including concern from a new committee formed by Macau's brand new finance minister that junket curtailment is going to cost Macau citizens their quality jobs and at least temporarily clip Macau tax revenue... for the sake of Macau's economy, good to see that reduced "egg" production from the Golden Goose (i.e.,taxes on Macau gaming revenue) is now causing some rethinking on the effects of crimping junket play.
Although Galaxy,MGM, WYNN and others have far more to lose than MPEL (where 95% of its ebitda from mass play on Macau).
"David Group joined other junket operators including Suncity Group and Hengsheng Group in expanding to markets beyond Macau as the city’s casinos last year suffered their first annual decline in revenue amid Chinese President Xi Jinping’s continuing battle on corruption. The overseas plan is also part of the company’s strategy to follow the government’s guidelines to develop the city into a global tourism destination, Ng said.
Macau’s casino regulator had received notice of one junket operator that canceled its operating license so far this year, according to a statement from the office of the Secretary for Economy and Finance Lionel Leong, posted on the [govt] website today.
The government is “extremely concerned” about developments in the casino industry and has set up a team to follow up on possible job cuts by junket operators or casinos, and it may also review and modify industry rules including on the licensing of junkets if needed, the statement added.
The Chinese government’s clampdown on corruption and extravagance has cut David’s high-end clients’ spending on gambling tables, he said. The group expects the casino industry to recover from the fourth quarter as more resorts open, boosting customer traffic and revenue, Ng said.
David Group, which also runs a travel company, owns private jets and luxury cars [now plans to take clients to other AP venues, incl Manila].
Anyone who is actually studying MPEL's business plan knows that 95% of MPEL's adj ebitda was from mass gaming and that junket-related VIP play has less to do with MPEL's ebitda generation than any other company operating in Macau... Further, David Group does not have any junket rooms in MPEL's properties, but at odds qwith reports last week that they were closing ALL 7 rooms they had on Macau, they have now confirmed closing only 3 of their 7 Macau cage rooms at WYNN and Sands properties... fun quotes from David Group in the Bloomberg articles this weekend though.
"David Group is shutting three of its seven rooms that cater for high-end players at casinos, it said in a statement on Saturday. The company, which runs rooms at casinos including those operated by Sands China Ltd. and Wynn Macau Ltd. (1128), is taking the action as part of a re-organization prompted by an industry downturn, Frank Ng, the company’s director of corporate communications, said by phone.
“We’re adjusting our business strategy; this is a general trend in the industry,” Ng said. “We’re hibernating. Once we wake up, we can restart.” The company can reopen the rooms when the market conditions improve," he said...
The Chinese government’s clampdown on corruption and extravagance has cut David’s high-end clients’ spending on gambling tables, he said. The group expects the casino industry to recover from the fourth quarter as more resorts open, boosting customer traffic and revenue, Ng said...
David Group is taking more wealthy customers to Asian centers with more relaxed visa approval process, such as Manila, Vietnam and South Korea, Ng said. David takes its VIPs shopping and sightseeing, and allows them to gamble at its private rooms in local casinos, he said. As part of its marketing strategies to draw gamblers, David Group publishes a lifestyle magazine in China to promote its brand. It also has a film company."
vegasbaby/doyour homework and all the rest...
Another new alias here?
You might want to check the HK listings before making such uninformed comments. and try to limit yourself to just 7-8 aliases here while you hype mgm, the worst-positioned and most overvalued of all the publicly-traded casino companies. But thanks for cheering us up with your "analysis". LOL
Everyone reading here who can speak English understands the many factors that caused the group underperformance over the last 9 months... but most also understand why MPEL has SIGNIFICANTLY outperformed the group over the last few years... ans more importantly, why MPEL is the best positioned of ALL of the Asian gaming companies looking to the future. While you obviously struggle with catalysts influencing the shares, what matters to FUTURE share price performance is what will happen in the FUTURE, not over the last 9 months as the group reset has taken place.
now off you go to ignore with your other 9 aliases...
Xi Jinping's speech on corruption last week also shed more light on the reality that political foes and entrenched politicians he wants to ensure have no office or sideline power are the target of his "institutionalized" antigraft campaign. These comments underscore MPEL's CEO comments last week that Macau is not the target of Xi's efforts.
"In the speech, Xi cited for the first time the names of Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee in charge of domestic security, and Ling Jihua, a former top aide of retired president Hu Jintao, as high-profile examples in his graft-busting efforts. These cases “demonstrated to the world the Communist Party has a head-on approach to problems and correcting mistakes,” Xi said, calling the effort “self-purifying.”
The risk of Xi’s anti-graft drive has “probably receded” since Zhou was formally put under investigation in July.
“For Xi, the most dangerous period was prior to July when he had to convince the leadership and the elder leaders of the party to get rid of Zhou and prosecute him,” he said.
In laying out goals and challenges for this year, Xi stressed the importance of institutionalizing his campaign. “Only by making it into a habit, a norm” can we deliver long-run and lasting impacts, he said.
Xi said this year’s anti-graft work would focus on strengthening official accountability mechanisms, keeping a closer eye on family members and close allies of potentially corrupt officials, and improving supervision of state-owned enterprises, a corruption-plagued area that saw hundreds of senior officials toppled...'
LOL at the new doyourhomework, one of 8-9 alias dope here? His "reality": "Macau gaming will fade just like Vegas," "3 years of declines and then level off at half today's level?" and Vegas is strong? He clearly doesn't understand either market. And what a conclusion: "could go up or down"... ebitda is 95% mass now, and run rate will double by the time Tower 5 is ramping.
A Turning Point in China’s Anti-Graft Campaign
A key phase of the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign has concluded
The political downfall of a former aide to Hu Jintao was finally confirmed some two years after a speeding Ferrari first crashed along a Beijing street in 2012. In a brief statement released last week, the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced that Ling Jihua, vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, had been indicted for “serious discipline violations.” Following the impeachments of Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou, Ling was the third high-profile politician to be ensnared in China’s anti-graft movement in 2014...
Fourth ‘Big Tiger’ Since Bo Xilai
That it has taken this long for Xi to close in on Ling can be explained by the more pressing need of purging the Chinese public security apparatus and China’s military of the influence of their previous officeholders. Towards that end, it was crucial that Xi focused his energies on reining in the Jiang loyalists – Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou – before opening up a new front against the CYL. Having systematically rooted out Zhou’s men within the state security bureaucracy in addition to consolidating his own status in the Central Military Commission (CMC), Xi has wasted no time in widening the anti-corruption campaign to include Hu’s protégé.
...the removal of Hu Jintao’s former right-hand man reaffirms the fact that Xi Jinping has more or less removed the final vestiges of influence his predecessor had retained. Similarly, the political shortcomings of Jiang Zemin’s clique also gives Xi an additional bargaining chip. This breaks the trend in contemporary Chinese politics in which party elders had continued to hold sway despite leaving office.
Xi is also unencumbered by the political gridlock caused by factional conflicts that marked the previous administration. With this initial phase of his anti-corru
Just a couple of weeks ahead of the quarterly call and updated outlook from the group and MPEL, it is terrific to see him emphasize the powerful catalysts in the mass market future of Macau (and the Philippines) just ahead for MPEL and also to dispel the bs noise on the 1Q15 comps and HK delisting. Surprised he did not take the chance to underscore that already 95% of MPEL's ebitda is from mass...
Also good to see the hysteria that built all week in Asian media over the potential for Mekkhala to become another "Super Typhoon" over the Philippines fade as the storm now looks to be more like merely a windy and heavy rain event, especially on the west (Manila) side of the islands.