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squeezetracker 787 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    See my comments on PCLN board for discussion, but the subject stocks are once again cheap relative to adj ebitda and earnings and growth prospects for these companies. As for NFLX, TWTR, Faceplant and all the other moonshots trading at big sales (compare with ebitda) multiples? They deserve a big mohawk, but these OTA companies have excellent financial performance metrics and prospects and will prove to be big winners as the 2H unfolds.

    PCLN and TRIP are very compelling down here now that all the momentum players are quashed out and only the stupid money unhedged shorts remain short. Ridiculously oversold DAL, AAL, and MPEL are also screaming buys ahead of next week's earnings calls. After the washout this week, we even put some WYNN back on.

  • See my comments on PCLN board for discussion, but the subject stocks are once again cheap relative to adj ebitda and earnings and growth prospects for these companies. As for NFLX, TWTR, Faceplant and all the other moonshots trading at big sales (compare with ebitda) multiples? They deserve a big mohawk, but these real metrics companies will prove to be big winners as the 2H unfolds.

    EXPE and PCLN are also very compelling down here now that all the momentum players are quashed out and only the stupid money unhedged shorts remain short. Ridiculously oversold DAL, AAL, and MPEL are also screaming buys ahead of next week's earnings calls.

  • Reply to

    Time to own the OTA (Again)

    by squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 4:53 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    Good to see all the same morons blasting PCLN here. As said in prior shakeouts, these clowns stand around yelling "jump out now" right before the reversal to new highs begins.

    This has been a solid shakeout on PCLN, but the reversal is already underway -- with a base count reset, all the momentum players thrown off the horse, and lots of stupid money unhedged shorts thinking that PCLN is in trouble... just the opposite is the reality now. TIME TO BUY all you can -- just like we said at $595 end of 2012, again at $950 as we rentered after the 3Q 2013 report, and now again after this broad shakeout and tumble below the 50d ema for roughly 80% of all the high growth stocks.

    PCLN will be leading the solid growth stories to new highs. Time to own this, EXPE and TRIP again, and the hotel, airline and key gaming stocks -- these will be the big winners for 2014 and beyond as the world economies pick up into 2H

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    As usual, your comments reveal your lame arrogance and that you know little about the business, Macau or either company. And LOL about your ownership of all of the gaming companies... what a putz.

    VIP play still comprises half of GGR in Macau and likely will figure prominently for years to come. Steve invented catering to VIP players at Bellagio before losing it, and he has always done a brilliant job of ensuring a quality VIP book in Vegas and now Macau. But WYNN certainly is not and will not be the singular "premier brand" in Cotai and no, it does not "serve the upper tier better than anyone else can." Cater to their book as well as MPEL does theirs? Okay, but decidedly not better than MPEL.

    The elite VIP players booked into MPEL's 5 star Altria would not stay or play anywhere else. MPEL's handling of VIP, and absolutely their book of extraordinarily valuable "premium mass" players is something Steve and Shel do not have.

    As for mass play in WYNN's current property and coming all-suite property? Yeah, they will all get on the tour buses and come over the new bridge to come and kabitz and play baccarat next to the VIP who flew in on Steve's jets and charter helicopters from HK to play to stay and play... and they will have no qualms about paying $100 per head for dinner and $600+/night for their suites. Not...
    LOL

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Pulling hedges and adding to this, EXPE and TRIP

    The RIP higher on these OTAs will begin next week as the airlines report stunningly good numbers on record rasm and gentle capacity increases while holding casm down. We own AAL, DAL and ALK again too they are ready to roar again too now that the shakeout is done.

  • Reply to

    Back to full allocation (again)

    by squeezetracker Apr 9, 2014 12:22 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Relax zird... new highs are likely as soon as next week because the data sets are cranking for the airlines. We own this, AAL and ALK -- they are all going to continue kicking #$%$. Same with the OTA -- pcln,expe and trip are all screamingly compelling down here.

  • Reply to

    TRIP will be down tomorrow...the GOOGLE EFFECT

    by drdan68 Apr 16, 2014 4:49 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    LOL

    The shakeout drop is over, the reversal is underway. time to own this, EXPE and PCLN as they resume the runs to new all time highs plus 10% this year.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Troll? Short? Your girlfriend alias (ms the pink pants) owns the stock up $30 from here. He's the little snot eating pink pants holding himself as the world's foremost authority on everything when he doesn't know S about the markets, the sector, AM, macau or anything else he wheezes on and on about. LOL

    But no, we are not short nor are we playing troll here -- just stomping on the gnads of any f head trying to dis me. That is where you come in on a fresh new horse in the same old pink pants. LOL

    Just to make fun of what a moron will say, read our comments again to learn we are long the stock (again) as of this week and have owned it many times over the years. Further, you obviously have comprehension and reading problems, but this thread is about the brilliant growth coming for Macau. Did you even read my comments?

    Wait, I see... it is just little old pink pants (little ms charmingly arrogant, entitled, self-loathing, and gumptarded yourbestfriendintheworld #$%$ head) on another alias. LOL

  • Reply to

    More Quant Fun for the Longs

    by squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 7:01 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    cont

    Then we have dthe98 repeating that commentary on fundamentals and quant from time to time as being useless because (in his mind that is) the only thing that matters is "stimulus" from the new regime. To be clear, other than perhaps a few chart-focused traders, 100% of hedge fund managers we know base their entire capital deployment precisely, exactly on fundamental and quantitative analysis and risk-reward combined with management and catalyst assessment. As for China's economy, they just told the world two days ago that they are still targeting 7.5% growth for the year which means, along with their t12m data included in that same release showing 5.7% GDP for that period, that they intend to foster the much discussed consumption and service based initiatives with whatever resources are needed to make that mid 7% GDP happen for 2014.

    Further, the entire hedge fund community well understands and appreciates that China's 7%+ growth and new initiatives to support quality and fuller employment for their people is anything but a threat to macau stocks. Instead, it is entirely supportive of a very bright future ahead for these companies, even the weakest sisters. In the end analysis, China knows they have a golden goose in Macau and that the tax revenues, employment and infrastructure and tourism aspects are entirely consistent with their economic initiatives for the entire country.

  • Reply to

    More Quant Fun for the Longs

    by squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 7:01 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    tfberynell,
    As for Manila, our baseline modeling is for $0 revenues this year, but they will have some. As for when it will begin? Ho stopped saying "mid year" about 5 months ago, rolling that to 3rd Q of this [calendar] year"... the reason analysts do not have anything in their models for that this year -- or next year until Bain just began inclusion two weeks ago -- is because they do not have reason to stick their neck out until the company begins framing what they think they can do with manila and MSC for that matter. On the last point, only 2 of the 10 or so analysts published on MPEL have any rev/ebitda in modeling for even 2015! Same for MSC... lots of upside revision coming, and to date, only the guys, incl us, who have been gobbling up shares down here below the 50d ema, are modeling the likely outcomes and realizing what that will mean to 2014 and more significantly, 2015 revenues operating leverage, ebitda and eps.

    Beyond that, you give the analyst community far too much credit. From published reports, you can see Bain does more work, and work that is actually meaningful, then the rest of the sellside combined, but he knows nothing more than management and the gaming commission data don't give him. The hedge fund community knows EVERYTHING the sellside communicates to them, and then individual pm know the things they don't want to share because that is the advantage they covet and protect.

    Above, toast2234 suggests that "holders are soiling their pants over fear GGR will fall to less than 10%. We have not soiled our pants over anything on this name since we got involved and neither has any hedge fund mgr in our circles. Nor do we, or any other pm we know running a hedge fund or mutual fund, think Macau's GGR will fall below 10%. We'd assign that an extremely low probability, and if we thought that we'd definitely be short MGM, LVS and WYNN if not MPEL. Hedge funds are buying down here, not selling out or shorting.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    well said... China's growing middle class will continue to prosper and grow under the transformative policies of the new regime.

    WYNN's business plan is almost entirely focused on china's elite. The new property coming online in 2016 will be entirely suite-based for the VIP/premium mass players... middle class families and mass players will not be going there or to MPEL's 5 Star properties. Still, both companies (and LVS too) will benefit as the Chinese titans of commerce will benefit greatly as the middle class prospers.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 17, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    Us stepped on? What a moron. Anyone following our core allocations (and hedging and sleeve trades) knows we have fared really well for years, and through this little correction of late.

    What a f putz... are you the little curly haired guy who wears white glasses and pink pants at Vassar? Go eat more of your snot, kick yourself in the nuts again and shut the front door. LOL

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    If Macau's GGR is "only" 15% this year, and MPEL does no better than to hold share, then revenue will beat the consensus of $5.77B by a few hundred million...

    Given MPEL's operating leverage, that would absolutely CRUSH current estimates for ebitda, adj ebitda, earnings and roic... and that mashing assumes COD Manila generates no incremental revenue (which is the consensus as not even Bain has any revs for CY 2014), and further assumes that MPEL does no buybacks after getting what will likely be 99% approval for that 10% authorization now sought to grab shares during times like these.

    Not a single analyst, not even Bain, is focusing on the upside here... that means only the buyside pm that have been gobbling up all the shares they can find are thinking as we are here. Isn't that darling? LMAO

  • Reply to

    David Baine the best of the best

    by grftt Apr 14, 2014 10:21 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    matrix,
    I know you understand, but assume there is no more than 10% annual growth for Macau GGR (I think it'll be substantially more than that). The critical part of MPEL's competitive position is that there is very limited additional footprint available, and MPEL's Studio City and Tower 5 at COD CotaI will be a significant portion of the incremental rooms and gaming facilities, meaning that MPEL's share of ramping GGR will be significantly more than today's call it 11% or so.

    Ho and packer are also going to fare well on the Japan piece (not necessarily Tokyo. Agree on the northern China/russia piece -- hat's off to the best mgmt team in the business.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    From your incessant rambling and spew here, it is obvious you don't know S about the markets, China, the gaming/entertainment sector or this company in particular. Do you even know who Roach is? Your comments are those of a moron... almost as lame as the "yourbestfriendintheworld" chump who thinks he is the world's foremost authority on everything. LOL

    If you want to develop some arguments that make you sound significantly brighter than you are, goog "Jim Chanos and China real estate bubble." Jim is a bright guy and spews lots of scary data that is not always correct as he endlessly disses China (for the last 4 years now). Too bad for his investors, though, he continues to be wrong . He once owned several of the macau players (MPEL and Galaxy in particular from memory) and if he is as bright as I give him credit for, he's likely long WYNN and MPEL as a hedge for his other China-domiciled developer, real estate and engineering firm shorts. LOL

  • Reply to

    it appears, at least for today,

    by drjackcar Apr 16, 2014 12:31 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    We'll never have the data, but ime it is likely much of the selldown on MPEL and the rest of the group was pm doing either box or paired hedging against the broad market swoon, intensified for this sector by the idiotic analysts' perspectives (the latter about to be trampled as the companies report and share their updates for the current Q). China's finance ministry update before the U.S. open was helpful in this regard, and those hedges are all coming off quickly now, starting yesterday, in orchestrated fashion, just ahead of WYNN and the group reporting next week.

    Additionally, objective data available for the work/consulting arrangements with data providers reveals that the OTA and airline businesses are going along ahead of expectations... all good for those groups (we're very long gaming, airlines, hotels and the OTA's down here) and this sector.

    As for the "nitwits", by that I think you mean the dip S unhedged shorts and put buyers here who likely got clobbered out on the first jump back to $40 and are getting mashed again after shorting down below the 40W ema... Yellen's comments today and Draghi's this week also make it apparent no central banker surprises are in the mix anytime soon.

    As I wrote earlier this week, all factors considered, the stock is relatively cheaper now than it was last July at $20 (after pulling back 20% in a couple weeks time on weak sauce suppositions about China's economy, worries about the new regime and the impact those were sure to have on Macau's GGR -- all just ahead of GGR surging to record highs for the 2H... Sound familiar? LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    the comments of a moron and his 9 multi aliases and one pakitart trading club pal. ROFLOL

  • Roach is the former chairman of Morgan's china/asia region and considered to be one of the world's foremoist authorities on that region's economy and development. He was interviewed a couple days ago by Fin Review about his brand new book. The interview excerpt below will sound familiar to those reading our views on china since last year.

    "As for all the talk of a shadow banking system and a lack of credit growth in China that could dramatically slow down the world’s second largest economy, Mr Roach is not concerned.

    “The fears are exaggerated,” he said. “China is going through a critical, once-in-a-20-year transition to a different model of economic growth that will eventually be more balanced and more stable and more sustainable, but most importantly, a more slower-growth model.”

    Mr Roach said that as the consumption share of the Chinese economy was set to go from 36 per cent of its gross domestic product to as high as 60 per cent, “China is about to unleash the biggest consumer story that the world has ever seen”.

    “Investors need to think services. They need to think the Chinese consumer... growth of the middle class and all of the ancillary characteristics of that from retail trade to wholesale trade, domestic transportation and hospitality and leisure, finance and the big one – healthcare. China has a rapidly ageing Chinese population rapidly in need of a broader array of healthcare choices. These are spectacular opportunities for investors... over the next couple of years.”

    Nice huh? MPEL is by far the cheapest stock in the group based on its best in class rev and adj ebitda growth and premium mass focus along with COD Manila opening this year and Macau Studio city opening next year followed by iconic Tower 5 at COD Cotai in 2016, but LVS and WYNN are stupid cheap again now too (we own after buying WYNN and LVS again yesterday). And MPEL just announced today they will be coming with a 10% buyback in addition to their new div policy (30% payout ratio).

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 16, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    This authorization for up to 10% of outstanding shares is new. Great news as it further underscores their confidence in the plan and forward ebitda growth.

    Wynn next week and then LVS and MPEL's updates will be out. Time for the unhedged shorts to begin realizing the latest reversal is now imminent.

  • Roach is the former chairman of Morgan's china/asia region and considered to be one of the world's foremoist authorities on that region's economy and development. He was interviewed a couple days ago by Fin Review about his brand new book. The interview excerpt below will sound familiar to those reading our views on china since last year.

    "As for all the talk of a shadow banking system and a lack of credit growth in China that could dramatically slow down the world’s second largest economy, Mr Roach is not concerned.

    “The fears are exaggerated,” he said. “China is going through a critical, once-in-a-20-year transition to a different model of economic growth that will eventually be more balanced and more stable and more sustainable, but most importantly, a more slower-growth model.”

    Mr Roach said that as the consumption share of the Chinese economy was set to go from 36 per cent of its gross domestic product to as high as 60 per cent, “China is about to unleash the biggest consumer story that the world has ever seen”.

    “Investors need to think services. They need to think the Chinese consumer. The growth of the middle class and all of the ancillary characteristics of that from retail trade to wholesale trade, domestic transportation and hospitality and leisure, finance and the big one – healthcare. China has a rapidly ageing Chinese population rapidly in need of a broader array of healthcare choices. These are spectacular opportunities for investors, not today but over the next couple of years.”

    He said that for the next 15 years there would be 20 million people a year moving from rural to urban cities that would keep commodities demand happening for Australians – but not, of course, at the same growth rates of the past decade."

    Separately, China released its new forecast for GDP growth of 7.4% for CY 2014 today. All of the above good news for Macau's GGR.

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