See the thread I updated last night on the MPEL board if you are a serious long on any of the macau names, but here is what I wrote on Jan 19, exactly six months ago, in part #$%$ on this yourbiggestdufusintheworld pedantic putz for trying to dis me with his ridiculous ignorance and arrogance. If you read the whole thread, you'll see we thought WYNN (then $250) and MGM were due for a fall and that LVS was still buyable (it was up 14% a month later), but then at $45+, we also made it clear we thought at $45 MPEL was too frothy to own unhedged and or without selling out some of the 270% gain t15m . (Read more to learn we blew out our large trading sleeve (round 30 or so) and hedged half the low basis core (which later posts reveal we covered at the 50d ema and then got back to 100% long for the double top retest... before again hedging back to the 50d ema -- and also began tip toeing back in to what is now our largest ever sleeve with a basis below $34. LOL) We own the core unhedged.
"Repeating myself, we think MPEL's story is great and so is the mgmt team, but the stock is now ahead of itself and the risk reward math is upside down from last year at this time. Remember? No one wanted to buy it last year, except the very knowledgeable institutional and hedge fund sponsorship already long then. Now, based on the parabolic run up last yr and another hot 20%+ this month, we can see the stock is being chased hard... but think through who is selling/hedging it out for now."
I detailed why we had gone from very positive to negative on MPEL to serious longs asking why on that board back then, and the best part is that the risk reward matrix is EXACTLY switched out back top positive on MPEL now. Unlike the morons on both boards who try to dis us and have a penchant for being on the wrong side of both our serious allocations and short term trades, we actually understand the markets, the sector and all four of the U.S. listed companies doing business in macau.
CNN's latest news 12 minutes ago:
So far only 1 person has been reported killed -- struck by a falling pole...
"By 7 a.m., the typhoon appeared to have changed course slightly, heading in a more westerly direction. It has been expected to hit Manila head-on, but it now seems to be veering away.
The real danger, however, could be the 2- to 3-meter storm surge that's expected to follow. Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to storm surges, and could easily flood.
Marco Savio of Plan International spoke to CNN from Makati, Manila's business district. He said he expected the storm to be at its most severe in Manila around 2 p.m. local time (2 a.m. ET). More than an inch rain was falling per hour in the city, many areas of which are susceptible to flooding.
Savio said while communities along the path of the typhoon have been evacuated, the government was not moving people out of the capital. "(The) majority are living in areas prone to floods. Schools are closed, offices and buildings closed."
see the updates, but things are worse than expected now. Two hours later winds atrengthened up to 125 mph, surprising the U.S. air force and other data center forecasts. As with the big one last year, we hope people get their families WAY out of low lying areas, and we are glad COD Manila won't be ready for another 3 months or so as the forecast is now for a storm surge of up to 10' is possible (it was only 3" forecasted earlier today!).
See the photos on "mashable" site as the mid coast homes on the eastern side are only about 5 feet above storm tide (so 10' will put those shanty huts 5' under the waves!
Thankfully, the last center report said winds were moderating as the storm hit the Northern mountains -- Manila is on the other side, but there will likely still be some street flooding there.
Re my comment in late April, a few days ahead of LVS talking about how excellent the mass and premium mass development was coming along and Ho calling Golden Week "phenomenal" two weeks later later:
"Those who think China's sky is falling ought to have a look at iron ore prices firming of late... why stockpile iron ore if your economy is collapsing?"
Check out the RIO news tonight. Iron ore shipments (largest customer is china for those who don't follow RIO) are up 10% yoy, well ahead of the guidance and significantly outstripping production run during the June Q. So the fundamental demand is still cranking in China... not the least of which is building that darling rail.
Combine this with the running notes on the banking system, including drjack's series tonight, and it is pretty clear the now debunked series of noise bs is trail dust. LVS' call should be a great update for Macau tomorrow... time for these two stocks to giddy up... not so much for WYNN and MGM as they are likely taking the brunt of the VIP crimp, at least for the noisy 2Q.
Those who have not been around or forget how several here tried to dis me for calling the stock "frothy" above $45 and suggesting, on january 18 and 19 (the first of the double top highss -- see comments below ) that some who had nice gains along with us might want to consider hedging or selling some along with more reasons for that assessment, might want to read this thread top to bottom.
I'll also suggest that we are now precisely opposite that thinking on the risk reward matrix as I wrote a few weeks ago when we suggested the "bottom is in" around the retested $30 floor. Just as the sentiment was way too positive then, it is far too negative now... precisely the kind of opportunity we like to do our own risk/reward matrix on before going large.
MPEL is currently our largest allocation -- by far. And oh... we are 100% long (no hedge) and long a small trade in LVS we will likely own into the CC tomorrow. Hell, we may even go large if the sleeve daytraders try to press today's ill-fated short bets on LVS. Again, we think that WYNN and MGM will suffer the most on the VIP news, because those two are well behind MPEL and LVS on dialing in direct credit players ("premium mass"). Fun times for those with a little capital to spec with in here...
and just clicked through to the China page on bloomberg to find many a few other great articles re regional stimulus to accelerate progress in china. As a few here have been suggesting since March, the sky is not falling quite yet on China or Macau or its elite wealthy gamers playing direct with the premier houses (so called premium mass players and VIP).
Great post in further refutation of bs noise from the media and dippy analysts as well as the towel tossing handwringers here who now espouse it will takes a long time for the stock to recover. Yeah, about a Los Angeles minute once things get to RIPPING soon. LOL.
Right on the pivot as I write...ready to break out hard to the upside oin good news next week... and the weekly chart is also just finishing up a beautiful "W" base pending some big boy volume to the upside once the Q update/refreshed guidance is out there next week.
Just our cup of tea so to speak. LOL
Teravana, 700 new stores from last year layered over with 700+ more this year, China cranking, new food and afternoon initiatives, and coffee futures now down from $240 to $160 again.
Time to be VERY LONG for us...
Up to 90 mph wind is a big yawn except for surfing... and COD Manila doesn't open for another 3 months.
this reminds us of almost exactly the same vibe on soft GGR 53 weeks ago when MPEL was printing below $22...
Just then we thought it was time go add heavy too... LOL Reading the last pos "update" pre-earnings call from Cam mcNight, ummm yes, we know VIP is softer than some thought, and yes, that is likely to press the weak sauce analyst estimates on WYNN and MGM (even though they have been reduced a few pennies for CY14 LOL).
For MPEL and LVS though? Mass (incl direct credit premium mass) is up call it 35% for the Q yoy, and that is likely to be AT LEAST 80% of MPEL's book for the second Q and MPEL is likely to have done better than the Macau group garnering mass+ premium mass (i.e., growing this chunk more than the overall 35%)... and even if their residual 20% (that would be the VIP portion) is down 25%... oh wait, I've already shared that logic. LOL
LVS reports tomorrow guys... the bs parade is about to take a big header from the top of the Venetian, and LVS' report, even if they do a poor job making fun of the stupidity that has driven dog s group sentiment, is likely to make it clear it's time for everyone to get back in the pool where the water is fine, just fine.
Nice little daytrader drop lets us back on the LVS trade... just 5k at $74.85 for "toast" and anyone else keeping track. LOL
Are you seeking abuse here now? Seems your new emphasis is trying to dis me? LOL
for those keeping score, we just blew out the little LVS trade... up .41 on 6k shares (too early on the way up) will restock the cognac shelf. LOL
Now, if only the sleeve daytraders will take it back down below $75 one more time, we'll reload it for the earnings call bump tomorrow.
then go read on the mpel board how stupid (for MPEL that is) the myopic focus on GGR is ve MPEL's business plan... Steve is figuring it out though... and WYNN will be just fine over time... but LVS, second pick at present levels, should outperform WYNN near term, and certainly MPEL should.
We are currently on our largest allocation ever...
As an aside, you can see this chump is a glotton for abuse. Here he tries to dis me, one of WYNN's biggest supporters in the history of this board, when the board is a mound of S filled with idiots tooling on this putz? He deserves Sybil and all the rest. LOL
A final thought until WYNN reports bearing the brunt of the VIP slowdown without a commensurate premium mass/direct credit book (yet), the F suggests I am trying to get people to "take my word"... Anyone taking anyone's word for anything in these forums is a moron. The record of our allocations, adj ebitda analysis and PTs speaks for itself (posted as we went along and did the chunks/trades, not afterward you'll notice), but validate anything said anywhere by anyone for yourself.
Those who listened to us more than doubled their money on MPEL and did it with timely offset hedges; andalso made profitable turns on LVS and WYNN on EVERY trade.
I see below the pedantic f head that called me 5th grade names (LOL) on mpel and then said it was his largest position is trying to dis me again. LOL
Click on messages and read my last ten or so posts if you want a brief history... but we have been long a large core (hedged at times and others not) on round 3 since October 2013 at just below $13. We added a bunch at $22+/- during the first week in July 2013 (after it pulled back from $26 quickly for a couple of weeks), when we said it would likely get to at least $30 if not $35. Go to the MPEL board and click in $21.80 to read about it for yourself if you are as dopey as this yourdufusintheworld putz.
We've also traded numerous sleeves in and out on MPEL, including the big slug at $34 when it pulled back from $37 late 2013. We said that would likely rip toward $40 by EOY (it got above $39 and then ripped further to a double top above $45. Yeah, go back this dolt's 6 months where we said, with the stock at $43+, there was a good chance the stock would break down below the $37 50d ema. THAT call was BEFORE the market took call it ALL growth/beta names down 20% or so, including this sector (WYNN from $250 to below $190), and then the onslaught of the noise parade as all the clueless journalists and sellsiders in this sector started their pantswetting sessions over bs that matters not to MPELs story.
Those reading our posts right here for the last few years also know we think Steve Wynn and team are VERY good, almost as good as lawrence Ho who runs MPEL. But even Stecve has been tipping his hat to lawrence as "a couple years ahead of us" [on premium mass]. Ya, we also continue to flip trade WYNN in the portfolio. easy pickings -- read our posts here.
From here fwd? MPEL is BY FAR the cheapest in group on cash flow metrics, has the biggest footprint expanison f24m (COD manila and MSC ph 1&2 and Tower 5 at Cotai COD, is the best managed, adj ebitda growth, etc. MPEL is THE stock to own f18m. PT $50+
just doubled the LVS trade w ave now 75.06... still small, but should be a fun Wednesday report as LVS is assuredly getting its shares of the June Qs mass GR, even if their share (incl VIP) of Macau's overall GGR looks to be only decent yoy.
2H14 should be a fun party, just as seen in last year's impressive runup into EOY.