No one who saw the movie would say it sucked... Chinese prostitutes say sucky sucky big time though. LOL
TD2 will win the Oscars...
good comments guys... now we are down to just one analyst worth his salt in the sector -- Sterne Aghe's David Bain...
They likely have prop desk positions and a few important clients short below yesterday's close. LOL
This bs is at the end of the rope... let'em dangle.
Agree that this guy made many fun points about macau infrastructure and growth for years to come. Yet he apparently does not understand Macau's economics. The taxes on everything about macau, incl gaming revenues, travel and currency transfer, are the source of tremendous employment for the central planners to take credit for...
Tianamen Square happened 25 years ago, representing the reality that chinamen were willing to die to express views contrary to the central planners ideas on control.
One of the most insightful talking heads I've seen commented at 2:00 AM (PT) today to the effect that all of the recent noise [UnionPay, corruption crackdown apart from gaming, Visa modifications without meaningful effect] are attempts to assert influence, but in the end Macau gaming will grow rapidly and for many years to come as properties and offerings are expanded.
Moreover, gov't officials realize that they need to appeal to other, non-Chinese patrons because other venues (incl Japan and the Philippines) are coming hard over the next several years and they will be the advantaged destinations for other ethnicities and ALSO Chinese people to the extent Rob Cox's idea of a constrained policy future for Macau unfolds "someday."
Whether Cox or even the most controlling of Chinese govt officials like it or not, the genie is out of the bottle and will remain so if China is to get its share of the global GGR pie.
As for conversion of OPEN shares into pcln, you don'' have that choice; it is a taxable, cash only deal. It has been fun to hear several talking heads suggest ebay or others will come with a higher bid... I doubt it, but our call to mgmt will advocate taking the breakup fee and laughing about the "one that got away" as pcln has other options and more are coming in this soon to be highly competitive referral fee restaurant service. One thing many should consider is that even if no other bid shows up prior to a 3Q close, it may be worth it to hold on if that gets one over the 12 month hurdle for LT Capital Gains treatment, regardless of whether a dreamy second bidder comes in. Our guess is that our own 2 cents shared on overpaying for OPEN was roundly said to mgt by other pm. Doubt pcln will raise the bid.
That you minted on OPEN is another nice trade by you -- not our cup of tea.
My wife uses pcln principally as a pricing comp tool, but often books trips (flight, hotel and car) for my kids because she believes pcln is consistently better than other OTAs or hassling directly with three different providers and cancellation/rebooking fees, etc. I know she thinks if it is flights only, she can always do better with our FF miles and Admiral's club perks.
In the end, pcln is a growth AND value story, has ample capital and FCF, shareholder oriented mgmt, best in class execution (though EXPE's new platforms close the gaps) and is again trading cheaply relative to ebitda (you know this is a theme we love) and earnings growth. We have a serious core here, and as seen since early 2009, love to trade catalysts here. Sound familiar? Yeah, about like the gmcr, sbux, dnkn, cmg, mpel, lvs, expe, trip, dal, aal, ual,htz, car, bac, gs, wfc, and another couple handful of names we've discussed openly on various boards over the last few years.
Fun year ahead, but pcln will be fine without any OPEN shareholders using their after tax proceeds
to buy pcln. LOL
Bedwetters? I think thsat is new usage here. LOL
My reference has been to the nervous nellie handwringers and pantswetters, certainly including the disgenuous morons paid to bash here or doing so -- likely against policy if working for a hedge fund required to file with the SEC -- as entry level traders on pissant sleeves or interns on a demo sleeve of capital. ROFLOL
Today was an important day in our minds... another attempt by the hedge funds/daytrader shorts to create dissonance and shakeout of retail holdings which are trivial on this company, with, as drjack called it out, more bs noise. The best part is that as I said last week, the smart guys have taken box hedges off and continue to write puts for those who want paper that will expiry worthless. LOL
Even funnier, now even Shuli Ren ("EM" blogger at Baron's) has apparently decided she has been made a fool on the sector but has intent to redeem herself by pointing out the reality that people don't go to Macau for extended stays... a night or two is plenty for most players, even the high end players with their entourage in tow. That said, her title today reveals her true color. LOL
For us, this morning's bs made for a great chance to add a few more chunks. Anf fun to see a few last straggling moron multialis putzes post some blithering bs... the dumbest of the dumb still involved with idiots short this name.
Also fun to see some differentiation on MPEL/LVS vs WYNN/MGM... some apparently think the ltter two will be hurt by VIP softening... yet they don;t realize even those two are benefitting from the emphasis on mass and conversion of some VIP tours to direct (premium mass)... and that the tour operators are likely being catered to by WYNN and MGM as they pickup the slack of less focus on VIP by MPEL and LVS. June Q results will wash out the rest of the idiots who think shorting these stocks is a good idea. LOL
Looks like the sky is NOT falling on china's economy after all...
For May, retail sales rose 12.5% yoy, above the 12.1% consensus estimate. Capex was up 17.2%, also above consensus, and industrial output rose to 8.8%, level with consensus expectations. All three of these data points are best performance ytd, and note the May results also overcame the numerous one-offs and Tianamen Square quelling of travel and tourism over the last week of May.
Given that China's VIP and premium mass players own the businesses driving this growth, looks like the doom and gloom crowd are going to have to find another sector to issue "real time market moving news" to report about. LOL
best to you too! I'm off to play golf with my three sons home for the weekend. As good as it gets!
I see under yahoo ignore veil that my little stalking putz bongload redleaf/fteetmyself from the dnkn board is still stalking. ROFLOL what a moron will do with his time. I'll have to cut and paste this respone on any new board he stalks on. Comedy and LOL
I didn't read whatever the dope wrote here, but dippy little redleaf is likely dissing our run on dnkn from $30 to 52 as a loss (LOL) and just for fun, I'll point out that anyone who understood what we have had to say on call it every stock we've discussed on yahoo over the last three years is hugely outperforming the market - because we are.
Those who want to audit what we have shared (it speaks for itself about our market and stockpicking success) can have fun clicking through our calls on PCLN (latest trip on at 952 after selling out the prior trip on at 595 in Dec 2012) , EXPE (long the core since last summer at 48) , TRIP (just bailed out with a quick 20% pop) , CAR (on from 9 to 29 so out too early), HTZ (22 to 28 on the core), DNKN (see above), DAL, AAL, ALK and even UAL (all except alk more than doubles), SBUX (still long from $52) , GMCR (long from 19 to 72 then short from 88 to 59 and a few positive trades since), CMG (from 65 to 240 or so -- out way too early), BAC (long since $6), GS (long from 89 to 142 so out too early), ISRG (major win from 29 to $330 and many trades around the core; recently back to long a trade and blew that out up $22 in three weeks), MGM (short from 85 to 55 then long from 6 to 14), WYNN (a dozen or so trades -- all green), MPEL (own the core at 12 but lots of quality trade sleeves -- going to $50 or so by the time Feb 2015 rolls in), ZQK (a multi-trade short party)... and so on.
Have fun if you want to go audit that but know the recap was off the top of my head and that we posted those as we did them, not afterward. LOL I'll add that anything you might think we lost more than 5% needs further digging; you'll see that we quickly hedge or blow out ideas not working.
Macau spotlight, but reference other smaller markets someday -- Someone ought to tell them about COD Manila. LOL
"Gross gaming revenue in Asia reached $63 billion in 2013 and is likely to almost double to $110 billion by 2018, helped by a rising middle class and a growing number of tourists, Goldman Sachs said in an in-depth report on the region’s gambling jurisdictions.
There has been a 32 percent compound average growth rate in gambling revenue in Asia since the global financial crisis in 2009, compared with just 2 percent growth in the U.S., it said.
Goldman pointed out that in the U.S. gambling took off in the 1980s, once disposable income per capita exceeded $10,000. There are now more than 75 million mainland Chinese earning that amount, with 183 million in the rest of Asia, it said.
The Asia region will see an explosion in new supply over the next few years as new casinos are built, with 21 projects under construction, or undergoing upgrades. However, the existing pipeline suggests no excessive competition, it said, adding that may change after 2020 if Japan and Taiwan legalize casinos and new resorts are built there.
Despite the increased competition, Goldman said Macau is unlikely to be unseated as the world’s top gambling hub and the territory remains its top pick. At the bottom of the list is Malaysia, which is seen as a mature market with declining returns. Among the smaller markets, Goldman pointed to Cambodia and Vladivostok as offering considerable opportunities.
Goldman says Cambodia is likely to be the second-best performing market in Asia, with 19 percent CAGR in GGR through to 2018, albeit from a low base. The investment bank said low tax rates and low labour costs are giving the country an edge, offsetting the higher junket commissions being paid to attract high rollers.
Vladivostok is also seen...
Re bailing on the trade sleeve, as in golf, sometimes lucky is better than good. LOL
but forget that... the rest of your comments are clear thinking... and note that our far bigger core long here is at $950 which we did NOT sell that out at $1260 for two reasons. First and foremost, we expect the shares to be materially higher by EOY.
Second, as with most hedge fund incentives, tax efficiency matters to us and we don't want to trigger the gain on one of our best ideas and biggest positions this year.
All else equal, PCLN is one of the best big cap growth stories going and it is trading at a significant discount relative to foreseeable growth. This OPEN deal may work out well over time, but relative to ebitda, ROIC and overall growth, it doesn't really matter if it only works out marginally.
Our baseline PT modeling comfortably supports $1400+ by EOY, and if you have been around since even just $595 in December 2012, you know we are decent stockpickers. LOL
idbtc dip S,
"Saying it the way I'm seeing it" is a riot...
Your comments reflect ignorance and stupidity, and you calling me dumb is also a riot. You have no idea how much I know about valuation, deal making and tax free reorg... but I was not trying to explain any of that -- simply point out what pm would have preferred if they are long OPEN. Those long PCLN got the cash deal they would have preferred as is obvious. I'll also pass on discussing incentive payouts for hedge fund pm... but taxes figure large in after tax efficiency. LOL
As for stock vs cash, the only reason to prefer cash is if you think yesterday little trim was permanent. Those who want out for "cash" won't get more than the tender; in a stock deal, they would have been able to hedge out the downside, sell out the OPEN stock, or let the upside run as PCLN ROARS up $100 or more by the end of July.
Remember I sold out the trade sleeve at $1260 (put on again at $1120) on Wednesday and then suggested the stock would see $1200 or even $1175 yesterday while the premarket tape painted up $8? Yeah, see, that's because I understand the capital markets, this sector and this company.
great stuff grftt... VIP may be in a brief lull (the growth curve is certainly being flattened by MPEL and others hooking up premium mass directly... but as you shared above, mass visitation is up 10%+ and that data set has a long ramp years into the future.
A while back I posted some ytd date on MCE growth this year... MCE activity is up significantly -- early days on that too, incl sporting events that will continue to take the book away from Vegas.
Mass GR is cranking over 35% growth ytd, and MPEL's positioning to dominate Manila with COD opening there later this year and to have a dramatic increase in overall Cotai footprint (Studio city, then Tower 5 at COD and then Phase 2 at Studio City) combined with GR growth in the existing footprint will enable MPEL to ramp hard and more than double the adj ebitda run rate by EOY 2016. EPS growth for MPEL is also poised to grow faster than any of the U.S. listed companies...
Before long, we'll all be having fun saying things like "Wasn't it ridiculous when all the dip S "analysts" and pseudo-journalists were recuding ratings in early summer 2014, just like they did in 2009 and then again in 2012 -- each time RIGHT BEFORE THE STOCKS TOOK OFF AGAIN as the niche is exceedingly well positioned to outperform most all other sectors." Yeah, these people are terrific contra-indications when they yell "the sky is falling"... it happens over and over again, right at the bottom.
This was an important week for longs... all of the bs noise being yelled by weak analysts and the media as the momo shorts used them like puppets took an abrupt about face... no surprises or new info for those reading the quality posters here, except that 2 of the five analysts publishing nonsense up through last week were on the "oversold" horn this week. Too funny...
Good to see the successful retest of the double bottom now too... our suggestion on May 15th that the bottom was likely in at $31.09 proved a bit early given the last week of May mystery, but between Tianamen Square (Chinamen stayed home with their families vs touring anywhere) and then we had all the coincident one-offs and 13 noise items... but seemingly now the bs is done for this cycle. Have you noticed most of the bs multialias idiots have left already? LOL
Our PT remains $50 for this year (i.e., no later than the Dec Q CC)... and we've now "highly likely" seen even the closest we'll see to the left tail of $28 we said about a month ago was possible if the sky falls on china's economy or Putin rolled tanks into the Ukrain and opther former USSR territories. What about our right tail of $60+ between now and when they announce the january Q in early Feb or so? We'll see... but anyone unhedged short here now is asking to have their capital mohawked. The box hedging is done, and seemingly so too is the downside here...
p.s. The $.128/SH dividend was credited to our MS account this morning.
The stock took a nice hit, especially from the $1260 level yesterday, but dropping $1.9B of market cap today is even dumber than dirt, so we were thrilled to put half our trade sleeve back on after bailing that yesterday as noted prior.
Here's the simple math...
Maybe they paid a bit much for a business plan that is easy to compete against, but, yawn... PCLN will certainly make the most of it with their interconnectivity of travel and database mgmt. Will the $2.6B prove worthwhile in the end? Maybe... but the drop in market cap is as if they issued stock for the deal (i.e., 4% dilution), and then threw away another $1B of cash out of stupidity... they did not do either of those things. Why not? OPEN shareholders certainly would have preferred stock and a tax-free reorg. The answer is simple: they are telegraphing they think the sotck (currency) is TOO cheap to use in a stock deal, and they didn;t want to have to use monstor ebitda to immiediately rebuy the shares they would have been issuing in an equity deal.
Now the stock has taken out the gap at $1197 as I suggested was certainly possible, the shares are ready to begin the runup into June Q earnings which should be stellar and reignite the shares. Anyone who did not cover today should prepare to get stomped.
Hardly a perfect match or even a smart deal, but it doesn't matter to the power of the PCLN ebitda story. As the stock went up on tape painting premarket, we called for a drop to $1200 or even $1175 whence this elOver cheerleader with his pom pom called me clueless. Funny stuff to be sure. LOL
Grabbed a 5k at 1190 on the turn up... looks like our firiends are not going to let it drop to $1175. Time for even the dumb shorts to cover now.