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squeezetracker 247 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Analysts need to do some research

    by cronjms Sep 22, 2014 11:19 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    jim, you are talking to an idiot who uses several aliases to say the same mindless drivel and overtly insulting people on all boards he frequents. He has no view on anything of substance regarding the sector -- ever. Here, he uses is idiotpumper/mytek -- you know, the dufus that has brought up your "Adding at $32" thread about 5 times -- and his latest alias asking 5 times about whether my former PT of $50 is still there as if I am trying to influence the trading of retail investors holding about .0001% of daily tape here. Too stupid to imagine really... but notice how those aliases all post together with the same comments and syntax issues?

    As you know, we held out $50 when matrix was talking about $75... and the $50 was below consensus and lowered to $40 on the generally fat holds and still weak results from WYNN, LVS, and MGM and then MPEL's lowering of mass expectations and the ongoing corruption shakeout. After this week, the "analysts" he is now saying were way ahead of everyone are belatedly lowering the consensus PT to now $41 -- still a buck above our lowering to $40 two months ago. LOL

  • Reply to

    Analysts need to do some research

    by cronjms Sep 22, 2014 11:19 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    You are a dolt, to be sure, but a persistent one.

    As for balance, Shuli's articles are consitently poorly researched and written, even when she is writing something favorable. You must be her girlfriend. LOL

    drjack and me along with a few others were concerned about the banking system last Fall, and discussed it often here. did you miss all of that too? How about back in early August when Ho reset expectations for the entire secotr saying mass would soon be running at half the ytd run rate --- you must have missed our balance of lowering our PT to $40 when the consensus was still above $50. You obviously weren't around when we bailed out of MPEL on the first trip above $16, suggested hedging many times to great effect, and called out the top and then double top above $43... And what do you have to say for my suggestion it was going to pull back to the $37.50 or so 50 d ema between those tops? Unbalanced? LOL

    More "balance"? I am to date the only one I have seen discuss Chanos' real estate collapse essays from three years ago and running. No collpase yet, but the vcentral planners are now supporting the banks to promote housing stability having overtly slammed the brakes on housing 11 months ago.

    If you want to continue trying to dis me with your stupidity on quality threads, I'll take the time to point out how stupid your comments are when I happen to see them and need a laugh. Amazing how some morons seem to thrive on throwing sand to provoke a kick in the head.

  • Reply to

    Analysts need to do some research

    by cronjms Sep 22, 2014 11:19 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    exactly Jim!

    Don't know if you saw my other post on this Karen Tang junk, but one article over the weekend suggested Tang was first to suggest whales from china were playing in Vegas and elsewhere. I don't know where they find these "journalists", but as you know we've been talking above Vegas tables games here since a month before Steve Wynn confirmed they were using the jet fleet for VIP tours from China back in late July. Tang was also a big throb on Vegas' "recovery" a couple months back when Steve Wynn's private fleet was bringing in the VIP tours from China... April had a double digit number, then May and June showed tables games up more than 30% YOY... right before the jet travel slowed and table games revenue dropped back to 7% for July. The Nevada gaming commission has not yet published August, but they may be staring at the numbers trying to figure out why August continued to see tables games drop hard from May/June levels (Steve's planes likely not shuttling VIP from China into Vegas)... meanwhile, Vegas slots (some 2/3 of Vegas GR these days) are about flat to down in recent months... so much for the big "recovery" of gaming revenue in Vegas.

    Meanwhile, Bain has dropped his PT to $54 last week (down from $57 in early August when Ho "reset" everyone's idea of mass gaming growth for the rest of this year -- to about half the prior level). Haven't seen anyone referencing this yet, but if easing premium mass is driving that (given the rooms are all still full throughout macau as per latest data and grftt's confirming trip notes) because those direct credit players decide to "low profile" for the near term, then our reduced PT (lowered to $40 on the Ho update) will prove to be optimistic as well. Interesting that Bain, after meeting with macau execs, decided to trim $3 vs $10 as we did the day of Ho's comments in August and the sellside has done since.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    We are not trading this matrix... Your "we the people" is helping you what? We liked you better when you posted here with respect for others (which we generally do unless putzes try to dis us on the way to the ignore bin.

    You can trend trade, we could care less what you do. Trend analysis has nothing to do with our serious allocations on fundamentals/quant valuation metrics. "Dis" that with goofy comments if you want, barebutbob, idiotpumper/mytek/darnite multiple alias s head must think we give a S about that too. LOL

    You may think the analysts matter, but the historical record is that professional buysiders and Packer and Ho don't give any accord to what they write -- see last Q 13Fs and Pimco and Gabelli's recent comments as well as the chunky buyback filing for recent examples of that. "Analysts" reduced their price targets and estimates in 2009 and then again in 2012 -- within a month of the final bottoms. The reality is that the analysts in this sector are good as contraindicators (Bain excluded) ... and Karen Tang, Shuli's favorite, is the weakest of them all. Her update Friday after hours? Gee, We put our thumb in the air and now think mass gaming and VIP may never recover in Macau. Talk about weak... We now know the corruption rumblings are what has cooled the VIP and premium mass play... all the rest of the noise was just that. Tang has also been loud on the "Vegas Recovery"... that lasted two months before China VIP stalled out there. LOL

    Your new PT of $22 cheers us! We file that up there with your $75 PT for MPEL you wrote about in January with the stock at $44... right when we explained we had sold out the catalyst (not trend) trade slug at $43 and hedged out half the core thinking the stock would soon retrace to the 50d ema around $37 (which it did 10 days later before the double top at $45).

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 7:58 AM Flag

    A month later and on the verge of Golden Week, the Macau names are still scraping along the bottom. A few things have become more clear though.

    China's economy "slowing" continues to make headlines, but those paying attention and actually processing what the central planners are doing can more clearly see the shift from manufacturing/export based growth to one more focused on better employment, infrastructure, service and consumer demand can see that "slowing" to 7% is not going to cause the sky to fall on china or macau. Nor is cooling off real state and other white hot aspects of china's growthin recent years -- it is all about a measured reshaping of their economy which will likely continue to drive negative headlines, but not forever ruin macau as a gaming mecca.

    It is also now more apparent that the "corruption crackdown" is not about UnionPay cards or gaming; rather, it is focused on corrupt politicians taking bribes and putting personal gains/bribe taking ahead of State interests driving low profile of China's elite wealthy over the summer and now into the Fall pending playout.

    As measured by sector stock prices now as well as analyst sentiment and pseudo journalist opinions reported daily it seems, Macau is forever hosed... again, precisely upside down from where sentiment from those corners were just 8 months ago --when really nothing of substance has changed except some 30 or so suicides or corruption crackdown targets, and now we see those "investigations are moving from the big "tigers" and now down to chasing the smaller "flies"...

    Meanwhile, the ballyhooed "Vegas GR recovery" seemingly lasted all of two months before fading in july as the private jet fleets apprently focused on only Steve's "Latins" and the China whales stayed home... the latest from JPM suggests the VIP tours are calling Macau venues again though -- seems they wonder if anyone still has tables enough for big VIP tours. Ho is "repositioning" Altira for them at last report...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 7:02 AM Flag

    btw, Aquis Resort at the Great Barrier Reef may one day be a terrific family resort with lots to do (swimming snorkeling, golf, etc) but protestors have already curtailed the scale the developers wanted (almost a village unto itself as it were) and the originally targeted opening date of sometime in 2018 may be wishful thinking... so is the idea that they can get over 1m vistors a year to come and stay for their intended average of 4 night stays... GFL with that, and it is dubious that VIP tours will be part of that extended stay concept with families in wet bathing suits and flip flops.

    Regardless, as Rowen Craigie so aptly summarized, “The challenge remains to get the players to Australia."

  • Reply to

    "Macau: A New Direction"

    by squeezetracker Sep 20, 2014 8:19 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 22, 2014 6:53 AM Flag

    This is a great piece if you missed it amongst the mounds of diversionary posts here. Section on HDW at COD starts at 20th minute, but the entire video is quality input.

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