EXPE up from $48 to $77, pcln up from $950 to $1300 and MPEL up from mid $20s to $43 since i shared those ideas here... but TPX has an easy run to $60 coming... with Einhorn and Bass adding hard last Q.
All aboard for the RIP higher (and the other names above still have lots of runway ahead)
Imagine, a sellsider figuring out what we have been saying for three months now. "Channel checks" = code for mgmt winking during our meeting with them. LOL
Then we have the barrons piece on GDP, and about 100 data points suggesting consumer discretionary/retail spending and housing are ready to lift...
Altogether, TPX is ready to crank friends... time to load the boat again (we'vee added over the last two weeks and just finished getting back to full allocation on the fortunate fade from the morning's high above $50.50.
This is close to the last few moments of being able to own this below $50... shorts are effd and Einhorn, bass and players like us play to gobble game and the shorts get stuffed. Round trip number 8 underway now. ROFLOL
I obviously meant to repeat my comments from when the stock was at $42: PT is $60 near term, and $75 by EOY if housing is stronger than flattish. LOL
Here comes Einhorn and Bass, stomping on the gnads of the shorts like elephants might quash ants. LOL
Meant to add that not only did the successful double bottom retest of the 50d ema reset the base count here, it was contemporaneous with the significant reduction in box hedges (short interest) at the last report and is consistent with continuation of the outperformance theme we have been discussing here.
Shorthand is that MPEL's juxtaposition on fundamentals, quant and technicals is a delightful set up for another great year of meaningful outperformance vs the group - and broad market.
On the strength of the latest earnings report, IBD moves MPEL up to #1 in their rating system. MPEL's chart is lovely if one is long and looks ready to recapture the open drop gap at $44 (perhaps today?).
The rest of the group charts look solid as well reflecting the strong group recovery in recent weeks. In IBD's schema, WYNN drops to #2, and IBD slots LVS at #3. MGM is way down the list (it is on our list, too -- woof woof).
The cutoff for the 13F is Dec 31, 2013, so he did put on NUS just two weeks before the NUS shares getting whacked in half!
Search "enron" on this board and you'll see a display of pages and pages of this idiot's multiple aliases saying the same dog S over and over. Here's a bit of knowledge brought to bear on this stupidity and lame arse topic.
Enron was being audited by a big eight firm yes, but with a young audit partner under pressure to milk a big fat cow and obviously without strong enough staff to identify key issues and to figure out what off balance sheet SIVs even were, let alone how lacking in substance and fraudulent they were. That's right, BILLIONS of dollars worth of fabricated subsidiaries where no audit confirmation work was done, no vouching of any fabricated transactions or bank accounts, no required investigation into "related party" transactions and alternate name corporations, or anything else to validate what these transactions (none of which were authorized by the board of directors), and nothing to show but an ever increasing series of strangely large and unaudited SIV investments done off balance sheet. Auditing is all about looking for funny debits because when a company has fraud going on and credits revenues to artificially inflate earnings, the debit is to the balance and should be easy to find if material.
There is are "funny" debits on HLF's balance sheet. Two independent big four accounting firms have attested to that on the same years involved here. PWC did so under the heaviest scrutiny in memory including of the SEC and the entire financial community courtesy Ackman's "boy who called wolf" antics until he was purple in the face, pouting that continues long after PWC called out his bs.
This texcrement moron and all of his alaises are too much... he really ought to be thrown off yahoo, relegated to only his dog S Seeking Dufuses essays with essays showing all the intellect of a dumb and very conceited 7th grader.
Another fun article for MPEL
Tam predicts economic growth will stay steady
Stephanie Lai | 14/02/2014
The economy secretary says the government has no intention of changing labour policy
Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak Yuen has said economic growth will be steady this year, propelled by further but slower growth in gaming revenue.
He also said the government was unlikely to make any big changes in labour policy.
Mr Tam, speaking after a meeting yesterday of the Advisory Committee for Economic Development, dismissed worry that slower economic growth in the mainland and uncertainty about the global economy will hurt Macau.
He said the government expected the economy to grow steadily this year.
Growth in gaming revenue would slow this year to a “low double-digit” percentage, he said.
Gaming revenue in January rose to 28.7 billion patacas (US$3.6 billion), less than expected, growing at the slowest annual rate for 15 months.
Mr Tam said the government hoped a “gradual change in the composition of gamblers” would turn out to be a good thing.
Analysts have pointed out that recently mass-market gaming has been generating a greater proportion of gaming revenue than before, and VIP gaming a lesser proportion.
“In the past one or two years growth in mass-market gaming revenue has been more rapid than growth in VIP gaming revenue,” Mr Tam said.
“These mass-market gamblers, they are middle-class visitors that not only gamble in the casinos but spend freely on shopping or dining in the city,” he said.
“VIP players come here only to gamble for a day, and then leave without spending much on anything else.”
Mr Tam said the change in the proportions of mass-market and VIP gaming revenue would mean slower growth in gaming revenue. “But this change can also put our economic development on a firmer footing,” he said.
See full article in MDailyNews
For the last 7-8 weeks commodity prices (metals, oil/gas, foodstuff) have been surging, particularly those items considered to be the infrastructure building materials throughout Asia. Copper, e.g., has risen for 8 weeks straight to the highest levels seen since 2011.
Although it is not news that the Chinese Ministry is thought by those doing data set work to often fabricate their own data sets, it is quite difficult to make up import and export data when global shipping companies and container and tanker shipping rates and the logical commodities are also running... So it was with great interest we read numerous articles in Bloomberg and otherwise over the last several days documenting others seeing those relationships... including the Chinese Ministry reporting that both imports to and exports from China grew by more than 10% last month. That is more than the CNY "trickiness"... things are picking up. Forward WTI is now also picking up again this morning on anticipation of further progress for the U.S. economy.
So much for China's economy imploding any week soon...
Melco Crown leads China rally in U.S.
Chinese stocks in New York rose on Friday U.S. time, extending the biggest weekly advance since November. Macau casino operator Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd led the rally, along with Guangshen Railway Co., amid signs that growth in China and abroad is picking up. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index of the most-traded Chinese stocks in the U.S. added 0.2 percent at 100.73 yesterday, bringing its gain for the week to 3.5 percent. Macau casino venture Melco climbed 0.9 percent after saying it will start paying dividends. E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. rallied for a seventh day.
Seymour seems like a nice guy, but all of the guys on that show are poser third tier players/wnaabe journalists and writers. Our buy and sell traders leave cnbc and bloomberg screens above the desk, but not to listen to pseudo journalists wannabe analysts... Rethaer, they keep it on in case a guest worth watching comes on one of the shows.
As for his comments on MPEL, he must, in superficial/clueless fashion, be looking at trailing p/e ratio... when one studies ebitda, growth of same and the dramatically expanding footprint in macau and Manila over the next few years, there is no other company currently operating in macau that will come close to growing as fast as MPEL in percentage terms on those critical measures. Using discounted forward ebitda measures out two and three years, it is highly likely MPEL will continue to be the best performing stock in the group... no other companies should come close.
Forgot to add FY eat S... and a quick scan of your obnoxious posts on every board reveals you manage to be a complete s head everywhere. Your boyfriend must be so proud over there in pakiville. LOL
Certain that your comments would be stupid and not address the issue raised, I took you off the ignore veil to kick you in the head...
AIG huge correction? You are a F moron. It pulled back all the way to the previous night's close, and was up more than a $1 off the low... that you think that is a short squeeze is reflective of your stupidity and ignorance.
As for out position? We own a small position of AIG at just below $24.. we are in that for an extended timeline as they will continue to make serious progress and the stock is going higer by a bunch over the ftm.
You little pos #$%$ stalking us like a little girl on aol is funny though... what a dufus. You are so F stupid, you try to dis us on names like hlf (up from our $38 basis and hedged out at $80), MPEL almost a three bagger for us since $12 in late 2012, and this which we ran from $18 to $61 and then $73 to 89 before bailing on the long and leaving on half the box hedge until covering at $59 a week ahead of the Sep Q cc.
Those who have not seen this troll F heads posts should click through if you need a laugh. He says he made a trillion last month and year, but his calls are wrongway almost every time... and everyone tells him to go F himself. What a F putz.
Here's real info on Blackrock's position. They own EXPE in at least 4 funds, and well over 95% of those shares were purchased PRIOR to the share price collapse on the lousy June Q.
As for the latest Q, two of those funds added shares, and two sold shares. You would not see that at many firms... by policy, most well managed mutual find companies have their portfolio managers and research staff work out opinion differences so that within the firm, they don't have some selling (negative) while some are buying (positive on the stock).
The creativeforce guy says Blackrock is "smart"... which ones, the buyers or the sellers for the Q ended 12/31/13?
We suggesting the stock was stupid cheap at $48 and had an initial PT of $60 by EOY which it blew past before raising our PT to $70 on the very important Sep Q progress on ebitda and also the sign up of part of Travelocity's book (efficiencies and buyside muscle additive).
Our PT for 2014 has been $100 since early january... see the history here if interested in leanring more about our views.
We also reloaded Priceline at $960 blended on the last earnings call bs dip after hours... we had been out after owning that from 595 to 950 for 2013. As good as expe's future is, pcln is better positioned for Europe and Asia, both of which are powering up now.
Have a look at coffee futures ripping. Since November, they have raged higher (call it 105 to 142).
D'ya think the sellsiders have even begun to think this through for gmcr? How about the company? Now we know the CFO is a genius (LOL), and has the first half of 2014 almost hedged (so they think anyway), but as world demand growth and supply constraints have taken forward pricing parabolic, what will this have to do with gross margins over the next handful of Qs prior to them figuring out how to market 5 cold servings/day at $.05/serving to everyone?
This cost pressure combined with gmcr losing share to both licensed and unlicensed competitors is going to make it, umm, difficult to retain margin anywhere near present levels.
LOL... trying to guess daily, let alone hourly, price movements is comedy. So hahaha
As for fearless forecasting, we have been close to perfect with respect to longer run price movement for almost three years running... but that is premised on quality analysis, not a crystal ball or a wet finger in the air.
Still, here's a fearless prediction series just for you.
1. If the stock does not go up or down, it will likely remain about the same.
2. Barring an economic collapse globally and particularly in China, this stock will be materially higher by EOY. Our baseline analysis with peer multiple on ebitda for 2014 is $50+. If ebitda ramps more like we think it will on the strength of a rapid ramp in Manila, though, the $50 will be as conservative as our $25-30 PT for 2013 was at the outset of 2013.