This f head putz moron calling me a dumb S is pure comedy. Freight train meets bottle cap on the rail.
For everyone else long and not doing real work on this story, let the stupidity and juvenile thinking of this stockman1 putz alert you to the quality of dufuses chasing this yesterday without understanding jack S about the company, licensing issues, and the rapid slip in market share not yet well understood but obvious in GMCR's guidance and kelley's disconcerted delivery of shaky message on licensing on Wednesday.
We don't set up portfolio allocations for one day price moves. We don;t trade one week options like the moron who tried to give me S here yesterday. And we don't take kindly to morons trying to dis either one of us.
what is relevant for GMCR these days are the things we have been writing about since 12 months ago. As we wrote as it happened, we owned this from $10 to $61 (several hedges and trading sleeves along the way in addition to the large core position -- one of the biggest in the fund). Then we came back on to the shares in early july after the CC and in the low $70s, noting too that the BOD buy and two mentions of carbonation coming at conferences was BIG news for doubling revenues near term as well as impressed with the progress and focus on addressing the licensing piece and pullback of some 10%.
Then came investor day (Sep 10th) with the dreaded news we anticipated in the days prior, that carbonation was going to be 2-3 years out... that set up the collapse from above $85 to $60, and we blew out of the trading sleeve, the core sleeve and left on half the hedge short, suggesting this would soon retrace from $85 to low $70s, and if that happened then back to $60 was visible, and if that happened, along with any other stumbles, a retrace back to the high $40s was certainly a threat, especially given Einhorn's renewed thrashing about.
This stock is in trouble, whether cheerleaders understand it or not. Read my posts from the last few days, not for a guess at stock price change for 5 hours, but for the fundamental and competitive problems this company has right now and ahead. Yesterday we suggested the stock will likely see $60 before $75 (that must be your reference to "less right yesterday?), and we still think that -- though I gave credit for $73 to the guy who said it may get to $75 yesterday when I offered that reply on one day price action.
Key words: rev guide halved 1h14, "many" new competitors vs "several" signed for 2H.
Everything there is based on knowledge of the markets, pm and hedging, and information one can independently develop.
Others can be off on the Flat Earth Society meetings if they want, but knowledge is valuable.
There have been call it 700 posts on how killed the shorts are here. Clearly the people chasing this on that premise do not understand much, and no, it is not yahoo's 49% of outstanding stock...
Here's some fun things to consider though.
1. Einhorn is short a bunch and so are his hedge fund pm pals. Unlike probably 99.99 percent of retail investors, these guys know how to hedge their downside exposure (long, short, paired or option trades) as well.
2. Einhorn has said he never covered in his big short from two years ago -- that means he feels no pain until the stock goes above $90 or so.
3. As of last report Oct 31st, the SHORT INTEREST TOTALED LESS THAN 27% OF OUTSTANDINGS, which here is not too dissimilar from float. YHOO's 49% is just plain lame and anyone relying on yhoo for anything is in trouble.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/31/2013 40,079,020 4,691,291 8.543282
10/15/2013 36,075,088 4,968,340 7.260994
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gmcr/short-interest#ixzz2lNiyF3o1
4. Yesterday some 20m shares traded during the regular session. Add in the say 3m+ AH trade from the day prior and that is likely a big chunk of hedges (both unhedged and box shorts) coming off. Hedge funds covering in box shorts did not lose money here -- those shorts were likely put on above $80 as the idiotic momo chasing happened even AFTER the company said carbonation was 2-3 yrs out.
5. A few key long term investors look to be quietly exiting the shares. For example, study the 13Fs and learn the relationship between Wellington and Vanguard if you don't know it. These guys own the shares below $30.
and we share your comment re hoping for a dip as we'd love to put on a discounted trading sleeve...
The FNM/FRE debacle will go on because the govt guarantees are inescapable unless Fairholme and others can come up with a few hundred billion extra to privately insure those losses. In the meantime, the govt will continue to milk these agencies for all the net profit they can milk because it offsets spending programs and every pol loves that.
This is part and parcel of the Fed's running commentary that accommodation will continue for years to come. There is no privatization of U.S. residential real estate until after several years of price appreciation has been accomplished. Buy the banks and mortgage insurers instead of gold. LOL
As for Ackman, he's at risk of losing another $1B here as uncle Carl is and will remain in the bushes pending the recertified financials and the huge buyback program is announced. Stiritz is the player to watch... we will not be surprised to see him put a deal together with a strategic buyer or group for HLF.
Outstanding and about time a high profile player decided to push for either a sale or new management of HOLX.
As with the MAKO story(recent sale announced), mgmt can only fail so many Qs in succession before important holders decide they'd rather "encourage" the company to sell out at a 50%+ premium vs simply selling out in disgust. The difference between this and MAKO is that HOLX equipment is not a one pony act -- they have dozens of important women's healthcare related products that all of the strategic equipment majors will pay a nice premium to control.
This is the kind of idea Uncle Carl was talking about two weeks ago when he said they have an even brighter future coming right up...
And hey, IEP down another $15 or so and we'll reload this stock for another ride.
LVS: We have owned it several times, but the last trip was to pull the box hedge and load at $38 followed by bailing, way early in hindsight, at $62. We've traded it a few times since, but no serious position. We have done well in other gaming sector allocations though, we ran MGM from $6 to $14, missing the drop back to $9, and then reloaded that at $9 for another run to $15. We've also made nice coin with WYNN over the years -- a great operator but we don't like his ideas on building in the rust belt. We'd rather be short MGM and WYNN than long at current levels, but no position in either now.
If you have been around a while here, you know we owned MPEL from $8 to 15, then loaded large at $12 on the last drop when many, including us, were concerned about more equity being raised (we are not fans of dilution). We've traded around the core as noted over time, but think this stock should do really well again next year as Ho and his team continue to drive outperformance.
Back to your question, we know Shel has been great on many calls incl Macau, but if you've read our posts on LVS, we have not been willing to stay in LVS chiefly due to the Spanish Empire flinging they have begun. We don't like the idea of multinational consortium consensus being needed to secure "partner" funding to build a resort complex in a country with 50% unemployment for the under 30 group... However, if past ifs prologue we think LVS may come with a special dividend any day now, which may be good for a temporary blip up for a few days. If we play it while the market is "suddenly" all aflutter to the upside, we will be quick to sell it out on the bump.
Final thought -- read the posts of grftt, matrixtrade, drjack,goos and a handful of other longtimers long here. I'm not sure of their backgrounds, but they know the business, these companies and others in Macau, and a few have/do likely still own other co's in the sector (e.g., Galaxy and LVS).
right on into a sale above $30/share (minimum based on recent deal comps in the sector).
in a mgmt led sale or Icahn gtting BOD seats and changing out mgmt or forcing a sale.
Shorts there are just as hosed as they were here at $36 on the second dip after Ackman's 300 slides bs. LOL
You've obviously never been to a dais oriented conference... No one will be booing or hissing at anyone.
Intelligent people will be listening intently and likely concluding that Bill is just committed to his ego trade here with nothing new to say or conclude except the nonsense "alien Spaceship" #$%$ that has cost him over $1B in investor capital so far and has him saddled with a smelly dead albatross put trade around his neck.
Besides, he only has time for about 250 slides in his 15 minute slot. LOL
Ackman calling HLF a pyramid scheme is just like calling a small pumpkin an "Alien Spaceship"...
Saying it is so doesn't make it so, no matter how stupid any listeners or lemmings following are.
Nice start toward new highs today... today the tape looks alot like what happens when bs unhedged shorts get their heads kicked in by committed pm on the long side.
THIS IS JUST ABOUT READY TO TURN INTO THE NEXT BIG PREMIUM ON SALE OF MED EQUIPMENT COMPANY SALE -- JUST ABOUT THE SAME GREAT SHAREHOLDER OUTCOME AS WAS MAKO 2 MONTHS AGO... thanks to Uncle Carl.
MAKO, after running from teens to 43 two years ago (we shorted it at 38 on the way up), then missed the next 5 Q in a row. Instead of watching it collapse again after clawing back up to 16 this year, they decided to sell to Stryker while the getting was good, at a huge premium to the run up price.
The street thinks this mgmt team is teh suk and Carl knows he can win some BOD seats if necessary to change out mgmt... but the better course he will likely advocate is an auction of the Company. The timing is good as there are many big cap companies likely willing to take out this co for some if its best in class obgyn related technical equipment.
The BOD and mgmt have a choice though... be forced to sell out quickly in an auction, or go ahead and pair up with a sweetheart deal (suitor of choice) to do a tax free reorg sale and keep some of the exec jobs and consulting contract "kisses" and a few BOD seats.
As with MAKO, the change in control premium is likely going to be at least $10 or so to Carl's 13D change date price... we think the franchise is worth at least $30, perhaps $35 near term based on recent deal metrics. Hit it HOLX, your fumbling days are over!
As you know from last year, we agreed with you and others then that einhorn was dead wrong on his 5 point essay which included that no one would renew on the new Vue or kcups when the reality is that many did. We made fun of the rest of his thesis and won that with authority from $18 to $88.
We agree with you on his bs about accounting. No funny debits or huge inventory build not correlated with sales...
But we think his comment, almost a whisper from him, that now 25% of pods sold are going out without license fee payments owed to GMCR. That is telling! His take on upgrades to new machines was also interesting -- and we also note that SBUX and PEET pods ar superior to any we have tried with a GMCR label -- a bit at odds with your take above (we know SBUX is currently paying license fees on all products). But 25%? No wonder Kelley sounded like he was in a POW camp with a gun at his head last night.
Today was clearly all about corp desk buback activity and panicked shorts... but where will the stock be in a month or two? If Einhorn's 25% is correct, it is clearly a telegraph of more problems to come on share, revenue growth and ebitda... but the guidance for "high single digits" -- half the level for 2013 -- is really telling. They know it is getting rutted on the track out there, and they have told everyone it is coming. now, whether a horse will drink is a different question... but time has a way of opening eyes.
We think the stock is in trouble not yet understood... but maybe they can drift it until they get carbonation done in half the time they said in September. We'll get long when that is ready...
Schmuckowab said what? LOL
You #$%$ trading club putzes are a laugh, I'll give you that!
You should fly on LUV then, and hope you are on their 1 plane in 10 that have ENT service, and get out your wallet to pay $15/flight for email and movies and surfing. LOL
As far as users experience on other services, are you aware of the speed initiatives that will be in place for gogo within 12 months, and that ENT is using gogo satellite service? The good outcome for ENT is to be acquired by gogo for a nice premium. You should be rooting for gogo if you are long ent -- happy or not, gogo customers will remain gogo airline lockup customers for years to come under the respective contracts. if you fly in Norway or vietnam or northern china, ENT service may be available to you on those planes in a couple years... but everyone will be using their phones start to end of flights long before then!
There is a stupid F comment for all to laugh about.
I see you are a F putz punk #$%$ off everyone on every board. Keep on making an #$%$ of yourself..
but get back to the carwash before you get fired f head. LOL