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squeezetracker 262 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 28, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    tell em goos! LOL

  • Reply to

    Turnaround

    by grftt Jan 27, 2015 7:38 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 28, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    Dave,
    Even Steve Kent (Goldie Suchs LOL) is back to bullish this week after repeating his BUY in July (WYNN AT ~$200 and LVS at ~$78) and then again in mid Sep on WYNN and LVS (at around $187 and $65 or so) before backing down his rating on both just before the bottom last month. The two multialias tarts here think the analyst group had the doom for 2014 called out in January, a month after the dumbest of the two was hyping MPEL would get to $75/share last year. Talk about funny... that was right when I suggested selling some/hedging out at $43+ (as we did and i know you did too Dave).

    Listen to the LVS call tonight, Shel had fun kicking Kent in the nuts and all the exec guys chuckled about it. Maybe the LVS execs don't realize these guys get fired if they miss 5-6 important group turns in a row? LOL

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 28, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    I see that below sheethead doesn't grip what an idiot he is yet... what a pos on all 10 or so aliases.

    Everyone here longer run knows we bailed on the trading allocation and hedged out the core at $43 in January 2014 and on the next trade chunk out again at $43 in March after $38 reload...

    Here's an excerpt (January 2014 with stock at $43.50 and dufusboy calling for $75 in 2014):

    "several of the nubs here trying to dis me (and other longtime quality guys like grftt) are also on that thread and other topics with ongoing examples of cluelessness. Eyes wide open folks; when dippy new #$%$ trading club idiots and other clueless individuals try to dis guys who have extensive knowledge of the markets, sector and individual companies are making points that putzes (see definition below) attempt to refute with ignorance, it is time to consider that this stock changing hands from high quality institutional sponsorship with extraordinary niche knowledge to those chasing [2013's performance here]. Be careful if you have serious money allocated here in an unhedged allocation."

    then, on that same thread I expanded on that for Bentley when asked for more info:
    "Those who have not been around or forget how several here tried to dis me for calling the stock "frothy" above $45 and suggesting, on january 18 and 19 (the first of the double top highss -- see comments below ) that some who had nice gains along with us might want to consider hedging or selling some along with more reasons for that assessment, might want to read this thread top to bottom."

    Everyone who can read beyond sheethead/mytek/tahoe/idotpumper/fcaholly/fcaimbecile/fcanyc/dthe98 and his other labels here can just laugh.

    The longtimers since 2009 know our long time success with this stock, and that we own the core at $17, and the current trade allocation right at $25 now... unhedged long the core at $17 and trade chunk at $25.

    Again, just for Shirley Mason, the $17 and $25 #s are before hedge gain numbers.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 28, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    goos,
    Great to listen to upbeat comments on LVS and Macau as the "Greatest gaming market in the world" (per Rob). They did a great job emphasizing the positives and fun to see them address "new Macau" by saying "diversification" at least 25 times on the CC... Also good to see their emphasis on adj ebitda... that is the important measure and why mass/premium mass is the future for MPEL and LVS. Shel still thinks absolute level of ebitda makes LVS best in class and all that matters though. He stills struggles with the difference between that and what matters more than total ebitda: adj ebitda/capital invested (cash ROIC). No one is ahead of MPEL on that metric in Macau, not even Steve now that VIP is haircut 40% or more at WYNN.

    LVS numbers (not so much the script) also make it obvious that Vegas is hurting -- as discussed here while the weakest of the bunch and the idiots on this board were dissing macau last summer, so much for the big Vegas "resurgence" the analyst group was touting last summer while the May and June fly ins from China were happenings, along with Steve's "Latins" LOL

    A point of departure: Shel's comments on HODW and entertainment at COD were out of touch. Shel does not understand that HODW is an "every visit" thrill for most of MPEL's "premium" end of the market clientele and that the show does change over time. He apparently also does not realize what MPEL is bringing to the party with Studiop City phase 1 and then 2.

    And Shel has in fact done a great "diversification" service to Macau with all the MICE facilities... hat off to him for that investment -- all of the companies benefit from big events and it helps other properties fill up rooms (MPEL's COD is the best occupied property on macau week in and week out as you likely know -- 100% last three Qs running).

    Again, good to hear an upbeat assessment on things going better than the bs media and weak analysts would have guessed, especially in the very soft Dec Q.

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 28, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    No, pretty much you are the only idiot here.

    The other multiliias poster was a seller at the top and didn't reload until down about $10 before selling out in the high 20s and then reloading some at $25 as he documented here and elsewhere on various pseudo names and alaises. He's no idiot like you though -- he can actually write and is reasonably bright... he just lacks integrity and consistency, has no sense of couth, and is intentionally underhanded and deceitful as called out on this board.

    And several of those who considered my suggestion to sell or lighten or hedge out the double top (both times) above $43 last January and March thanked me for that perspective right on this board and on email.

    You really ought to find something to do with your time -- you sukk at dissing people and must simply like being stomped on. Thanks for the entertainment tho... fun to call it out your stupidity when i see it and have time.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 29, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    Shel has skimmed over favorable holds for years... he tends to discuss them only when they are light to "expected" bounds.. As for the property tax credit at MBS, no one is viewing that as "earnings"... and MBS still looks good given floored expectations

    The U.S. listed stocks are all completely washed out down here, to the point where even though Vegas is worse than skeptics have modeled, it may be that even MGM is too cheap.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jan 29, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    As noted last night, against the backdrop of all the ridiculously negative press and "jonny come lately" negatively slanted analysts reports (on "plummeting VIP" (9 of the 10 largest still operating all but 3 rooms LOL), the late summer '14 corruption crackdown/Zhou arrest in late July, Ho's reset of mass expectations to half the run rate of 1H as told in Aug '14, Jinping's Dec visit, smoking ban bs, it was good to see LVS offer up less than disastrous update last night, and remain "uber bullish" on the future of mass/premium mass in Macau...

    I pointed out a few less than flattering aspects of the results (lucky holds and solid Singapore results made to look really good by the obscured property tax credit incl in "ebitda" verbiage until they came clean at the end of Q&A and then only when asked?) , but still good to see less than awful results. Shel dissing MPEL's HODW and saying they are the best on ebitda (in total, not relative to ROIC/footprint) was also pointed out as Shel's being out of touch a bit, but that is not new either.

    Good to see LVS get to 80% of adj. ebitda in macau from mass play -- ironic that they call that best in the group; apparently they don't realize MPEL was up to 85% on that metric for the Sep Q and will no doubt be even moreso now given that VIP is down hard 4Q yoy (adj for premium mass playing in VIP rooms for smoking purposes).

    MPEL should also look "best in class" on occupancy as they have run at 100% (30-40% turnaway rate) since March Q2014. COD has had better ADR/revpar too -- without the comp promos LVS concedes they are now doing to fill rooms.

    Singapore doing decent on VIP is also an important note... seems some RC players will travel a bit further than Macau to play. Maybe that is part of what MPEL was alluding to when Ho said the 300 or so VIP suites at COD Manila was "not enough to meet demand." Macau really does need to think through whether they want all that biz to go elsewhere, but MPEL and LVS are all set if so.

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 30, 2015 6:32 AM Flag

    So now this multialias sheethead/idiotpumper/mytek/blaqnite/tahoe/fcanyc/fcuimbecile/fcaholly and his other 5-6 aliases used here writes this as if I have been disgenuine here?

    "squeezetracker • Feb 20, 2014 11:40 AM
    Adding to core down here

    Group move underway without MPEL ... love it.

    squeezetracker • Feb 21, 2014 12:38 PM
    We are now on our largest ever allocation and done adding unless the stock breaks down again.

    It was a delightful little shakeout while it lasted, serving our wants just perfectly.
    *note the stock was $42 at that time."

    Seriously, what a moron this putz reveals himself to be. I have shared many of our trades here over time, especially when this putz tries to dis me with his stupidity... Those who can read without mental impairment don't have to try hard to resolve what this putz thinks somehow demonstrates that I have no idea what I am doing. LOL

    Simply read above and below for posts I shared in jan., Feb and March last year (selling out the trade chunk hedging the core) and when we pulled the core hedge and reloaded the next iterative trade slug as the shakeout back to the 50d ema ($38) happened -- which was then sold out as the stock double topped again above $45. (Incidentally, this F head has made reference to his "gotcha" stupidity on at least 10 occasions prior where I simply dumped his then new alias to ignore without responding at the time.)

    AFTER that bail in March 2014, we inititiated a new trade allocation layered in over the last 9 months & lightened on the 20% bounce higher above $36 over the last half of June 2014. As noted, the adds were heavy below $28 and esp below $22 double bottom - this is the "trade" piece we currently own just below $25, again, excluding the NUMEROUS box shorts & pair trade shorts (MGM, LVS and WYNN) and option writes -- many of which were discussed right here over time.

    If not such a waste of time, it would be just comedy pointing out how lame this tart is. LOL

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 30, 2015 6:50 AM Flag

    Your comments once again reflect your ignorance and pig-headed agenda here. Unbelievable to think anyone would pay you for trying to post your endless stream, on many sheethead alaises, of blithering attempts at diversionary posts.

    They are also out of context of my comments on dividends and buybacks over time as those with a brain certainly understand regardless of what stupidity you try to cast.

    I have commented numerous times here that the reason MPEL is paying cash dividends is that Packer's company that owns 1/3 of MPEL needs the cash flow to support his otherwise marginal funding. I have also noted several times that buying back stock is a far more compelling and tax efficient means of managing excess capital/returning it to shareholders. MPEL's cash divs have been trivial to date, while the buybacks have dwarfed those amounts -- in sum, MPEL's sophisticated BOD obviously agrees with my view on buybacks; so does everyone managing money unless the charter is div oriented.

    So now, pigeon, go read your last sentence again to see how hollow your bs is as always. In the context of our selling out/hedging at $43 (not "telling others to do so", just pointing out in plain terms that some might want to think about why we and other pm were doing just that) in January '14, then also why we reloaded from 50d ema at $38 up to $42 to relighten above $44 in March '14, your comments are as always ridiculous.

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 30, 2015 6:52 AM Flag

    Grant's views have been largely seconded by LVS since... see the ggrasia article for more if you missed it.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jan 30, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Last summer we pointed out that Vegas cheerleading by weak analysts and dippy media writers aside, Xi Jinping's "Foxhunt" (his quest to extradite crooks and political foes who absconded with misappropriated funds from China launched with vigor in July netted former Security Minister Zhou among other "corrupt tigers") was likely to shut down the Vegas GGR "resurgence as quickly as it began in May and June (uo 30%+ yoy) down to just 7% in July and pretty much negative all year thereafter, including today's data release that Vega GGR was down a whopping 16% for December.

    Seartch under "Vegas resurgence" here to read some fun going back to July. LOL

    We don't have a corruption crackdown here in the U.S. last time I checked, and no Asian whales or Steve's "Latins" are playing here either it seems. Nah... seems Vegas is just back to blue hair slots and college kids and tour bus play when it comes to those high-ceilinged Vegas casinos...

    But it makes sense for the group to go off on this data, huh? Oh, that's right... of the four U.S.-listed companies, MPEL has no Vegas operations. MPEL has only the best performing premium end of mass gaming properties in what LVS called the "greatest gambling market in the world (Macua)."

    Wait, I forgot they also have COD Manila, where their 300 VIP suites are said by Ho to be "insufficient to meet [booking] demand" and where observers uniformly agree the GGR will be growing faster than anywhere else in the AP region. I wonder how many months of operation there will pass before MPEL announces they are ready to begin consturtion on their new "premium mass" and VIP suites tower in Manila as Phase 2 there. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 31, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    Ed,
    Diversionary posts and ridiculous "thumb ratings" are lame attempts to discredit anything contrary to those short the stock as downside bets.

    There are at least two Shirley Mason posters here -- this one has repeatedly tried to dis you on about 7 different aliases here over the last 6 months -- is all one chump and his boos must think they can influence retail investors with such inanity. Stupid really on a tape with 5m shares trading daily. Have you ever noticed this idiot has the same syntax issues and themes on all of his dippy aliases? I put them on ignore as they come up, but if you click through on his iterative new aliases, you'll see he posts 100s of posts per week on many aliases and, as you have done when he "attacks" you (LOL) many folks call out his bs and new aliases on other boards as soon as they read one of them. You'd think YHOO could at least limit everyone to one alias per board... but other than holding BABA shares, yhoo is not much of a company as you know.

    As you likely know from reading this board, we have at least one other multialias posters here... but seems he has gone dark after revealing his lack of integrity. yawn

    Ed, glad to see you, grftt and 4-5 other guys who have been involved with the stock over the longer run are still around for the brighter days coming for MPEL

  • Packer's Crown owns 1/3 (plus their share or another 1% or so after the buyback done in late last year) of MPEL, but based on the Sri Lanka pulling the plug on gaming there, looks like Macau/Manila/Singapore and, maybe someday, Japan will lose another would be "competitor" to what LVS called just last week: "the greatest gaming market in the world" (Macau). Fun to note that Lawrence Ho, MPEL's CEO, said the same thing two weeks ago when they unveiled the grand plans for the first phase of Studio City and, in the same interview, advised that COD Manila, though not even fully opened yet, was already running "well ahead of expectations."

    Crown Scraps Plans for $400 Million Sri Lanka Resort
    January 31, 2015

    (Bloomberg) -- Crown Resorts Ltd., the Australian casino company controlled by billionaire James Packer, said it won’t proceed with a planned $400 million development in Sri Lanka after a government ruling on gaming projects.
    Sri Lanka won’t allow casinos in planned mixed developments in Colombo, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told the nation’s parliament Jan. 29 as the government detailed measures in an interim budget.
    Melbourne-based Crown had proposed to construct a five-star resort with about 450 hotel rooms and suites, gaming areas and restaurants at Beira Lake in the center of Colombo, according to a 2013 regulatory statement...
    “We respect the Sri Lankan government’s decision,” the company said today in an e-mailed statement. “On that basis our project will not be going ahead.”

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 1, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    The Barron's article shared on this thread, from two weeks ago and NOT written by Shuli Renn, offers a nice contrast to Shuli's negative/repeat the negative, then repeat the negative bias again bent of her online article from yesterday.

    In today's article by Shuli, she appears to be hellbent to one up the real Barron's writer who wrote the "Time to Bet on the House Again" piece... and must be pained to write (as discussed in this article below) and pressured by her editor to note that Morgan Stanley is calling for the stocks to begin turning higher as soon as this month... and that even Deutsche Bank's "negativity" is tempered by suggesting Galaxy's [and soon there after MPEL's Studio City] imminent opening will likely soon begin (i.e., months before openings) to be favorably impacting/discounted in the Macau stocks. She also apparently doesn't have any inclination to think mass visitation during the CNY celebrations in the latter part of this month (February) will have any positive impact (understood that last year's 42% YOY comp for Feb is tough to overcome in the current environment, but her "gamblers go home for the Chinese New Year" comment is bizarre, even disregarding the "pre CNY gaming lull" was calendered in January last year and that this year it falls in the 2H of Feb for CNY was earlier last year). From the Shuli article for those who do not subscribe Barron's:

    "A number of investors and analysts believe that casino revenue will bottom in February as gamblers go home for the Chinese New Year before recovering in the spring when new operations are scheduled to open. Galaxy Entertainment ’s (27.Hong Kong) new wing will debut in May, followed by MPEL's new Studio City casino in the [4Q].

    Morgan Stanley, for instance, thinks Macau stocks could pick up as early as this month, while Deutsche Bank recommends the expanding Galaxy, noting that casino stocks on average tend to rise 38% in the [2-3] months before an opening."

    Meanwhile, Manila opens tomorrow!

  • Including direct holdings and beneficial ownership shares controlled by their families and the two billionaires' separate companies (Crown Resorts and Melco Development Corp), each of these co-chairmen of MPEL now control 34.2% of MPEL stock, for a combined total of 68.4% of outstanding shares.

    They still have ~$200m of buyback authority left (rough estimate of remainder) on MPEL's initial BOD buyback authorization, and given the Japan prospects are uncertain (perhaps no capital will be deployed there near or long term), and their publicly stated intent to do "transformational" second phases at both COD Manila and Studio City, it will be interesting to see what they do regarding the repurchase authorization in the 2015 proxy statement.

  • in case you missed it, goog the title for great video discussing Ho's "tale of two halves" coming in 2015.

    meanwhile, ggr for jan was down 17% yoy, consistent with consensus.

    CNY scheduling is later this year, but Feb comp will likely be rough as ggr was up 42% including big VIP numbers last year that will not be repeated this year.

  • goog that title for more Bloomberg coverage on the "Vegas resurgence," you know, the big surge in table games seen last May and june that faded to minus 12% (-12%) in august and has seen Asian whale play gone gone gone since...

    Another recent Bloomberg piece suggests that Asian whale play used to comprise most of the baccarat revenues... and was based on about 100 players coming regularly that are no longer playing in Vegas following the Xi Jinping "corruption crackdown." Gee, d'ya think maybe that 100 or so players is the same 100 or so "Fox Hunt" players that Xi Jinping's administration has asked the U.S. government to extradite to China based on the assertion that these whales absconded with "billions" belonging to the PRC?

  • Reply to

    Macau Fisherman Wharf

    by grftt Feb 1, 2015 9:21 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 2, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    Hey grftt,
    The wharf group obviously got a last minute "allocation" from the prior admn, including the now cast off Francis Tam. Perhaps the new leadership, incl leong Tac as finance secretary, has said that "table grant" is not yet official.

    As for Lawrence Ho, in July (and several times prior) he suggested he was confident, based on discussion with the then Macau leadership (so Francis Tam and the former CE) that they would get their "fair and reasonable" share of tables ("we want 500 but at least 400" he said) consistent with their running dialogue with Macau's leadership. Back then, Steve Wynn emphatically suggested he was "highly confident" that WYNN's new casino coming next year on macau, would get "at least 500 tables"... when an analyst (Kent from GS I think) asked him how confident that was, Steve said "As confident as I can get" (as an aside, he also said that based on July results it seemed that macau was beginning to improve from the summer drop -- so that wasn't much of a tea leaf reading).

    Since then, the corruption crackdown (Zhou's arrest in late July, several notable roof jumpers in shanghai and Beijing, and Xi Jinping's ubiquitous buzz about with the "Fox Hunt") and siren calls for "diversification" ad nauseum led to Steve and lawrence both suggesting on their Q3 conference calls that they believe they will get their tables in due process/time, but that such allocations would await the installation of the new regime.

    These "integrated casino resorts" are now installing finishing trims as you know, and they will need to know the table numbers to wrap it up -- NOW at Galaxy and over the next couple of months at SC and WYNN's Palace.

    Don't know if you saw it, but Leong Tac said the "new casino resorts" opening over 2H14 will lead to an improving GGR result thus improving Macau's crimped budget for '14. "New casinos" have tables, and SC is one of the two. SC is also the model for "diversified, entertainment and tourism promoting casino resort.

  • Reply to

    Macau Fisherman Wharf

    by grftt Feb 1, 2015 9:21 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 2, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    hey dave,
    In today's edition of Barron's, three roundtable members suggest Macau is a good place to allocate capital this year as GGR is down a bunch (VIP), but the stocks are down significantly more. They also made reference to the reality that Beijing's "corruption crackdown" (which as many have said eloquently, has nothing to do with Macau but is rather about corrupt political officials and their "shady deal" cronies) causing many to be low profile on everything but that with the substantial development on Macau and surrounding it, many more visitors are going to juice Macau when Beijing/Macau relax the visa/transit issues at some point.

    On tables, spot on every point Dave... but I hope Galaxy gets a nice slug (with ~ no meaningful diversification) as a nice prelude to MPEL getting what they want and then LVS and WYNN next. Yet, since, as LVS suggested last week, many VIP tables are not as busy as they were last year, it may be that the request for big numbers is not so as important as it would be if going gangbusters on Macau. You also know better than most the the ETG and program for SC is not really goiing to be about VIP players... all about the "premium end of mass" at SC.

    It was also interesting to see last week that in the local paper there the new finance secretary Leong Tac said he understood the people of Macau (say nothing of visitors and resort operators) are frustrated with the lack of progress on the infrastructure projects and that the govt needs to step up getting them done despite budget flexibility issues.

  • Are we ready yet? Good to see the stocks go up on "bad" news today... maybe MS little turnaround is underway starting today. The last 1m or so shares looked like the gnads getting torn off the shorts. Could not happen to more deserving fellows, especially the little putzes using 10 or so aliases apiece here to post their drive LOL

    2015 should be a tale of two halves.” After the first quarter, apart from easier comparison base, brand new casinos will come to the market, which means more customers:

    "We expect 2015 to see sequential growth over the following three quarters [after Q1], driven by supply as Galaxy opens the doors for Phase 2 in May 2015 and [Melco Crown's] Studio City in September 2015. The incremental hotel rooms should help premium mass revenue (as overnight visitors tend to gamble more than day trippers), and potential extension of credit by casinos should help VIP revenue increase as well.

    Since stock prices are driven more by expectations than earnings, the bank sees the Macau stocks to recover as early as January. The Macau stocks are now trading at 8% free cash flow yield, a very attractive sector.

    [As for Melco Crown,] Morgan Stanley is more positive because of “attractive valuation and supply increase” in the Philippines as well as Macau. The casino also has room to raise dividends especially if overseas opportunities such as Japan are delayed."

    To clarify my view, the 30% dividend gearing would suggest dividends aren't going up much anytime soon, but the ongoing accumulation of FCF is likely to enable another big round of buybacks if Japan, phase two in Manila and phase 2 at Studio City are pushed off and if they quickly get the HK delisting done so they do not have the 25% public float limitation to blow past. Then again, they still have $200m left on the initial repurchase authority, and they can do another 6% or so authorization over that without going over the 75% beneficial ownership limitation on the HK exchange.

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