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squeezetracker 300 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 7 hours ago Flag

    As discussed here prior, one day soon Henny Penny, Macau and Beijing officials are going to realize their political corruption withhunt is going to cost them billions of tax revenue per Q, money they need to do the contemplated infrastructure (bridges, rails, roads), Hengquin and realted development programs...

    Not sure this article marks the end of the witchhunt for tigers and flies, but if so it is IBDs first article with objective references and meaning related to Macau since Detar began writing about it.

  • Article quoted in IBD piece:

    BEIJING - A campaign put a check on misbehavior by party officials may just be ending, but the Communist Party of China (CPC) is eager for yet more improvements.
    The "mass-line" campaign began in June last year to improve the flagging relationship between CPC officials and the general public, by cleaning up undesirable work styles such as formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism and extravagance.
    "The campaign has reached its goals... but Party organizations at all levels must not let up on the drive to improve working practices and should continue to deal with the problems exposed by the campaign," said a statement released Tuesday after a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
    Empty speeches, interminable meetings, lavish banquets and entertainment at VIP clubs were all targets of the campaign. Focused on officials at or above county level, Party members examined their own conduct, laid their problems bare, analyzed the causes and made plans to set things right.
    "With strict standards, measures and discipline, the campaign helped officials solve their own problems. It had significant effect and won people's full support as well as positive comments from both inside and outside the Party," the statement said.
    Party members have learnt to think for themselves and make decisions from the people's perspective. Many began sincere relationships by speaking honestly and being real friends with the people.
    According to the statement, "a batch of prominent issues" that were closely related to people's interests and harmed the Party's grassroots foundations have been solved. Party officials and organizations at the grassroots level have improved their work capacity and sharpened their awareness of rules.
    The statement called for continued action on misbehavior and a long-term mechanism to limit the power o

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 8 hours ago Flag

    a final point on Studio City tables... the two guys wetting themselves on the SC topic are the same guys who "didn;t like" my comments about how incredibly ill-timed Shel's Spain ambitions were two+ years ago. These grumps have posted that bs about SC tables here too, but let the "grumpy old man club" squeal about SC tables... Our money is on Ho's take of "pulling their share" and we also believe his confidence emanates from discussions, as you wrote, "outside the public forum."

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 9 hours ago Flag

    tbery, all excellent comments as usual from you

    Re the FF LVS board, there are a few good posters there (notably our drjack here), but several of those guys, notably mrtaxxxx with however many "x's" he uses now there as a prime example, "don't like"(LOL) people disagreeing with the myopic bullishness they pat each other on the back with there... exclude drjack, the board moderator and only a couple others, and all you have is the myopic "grumpy old men" club that has been bullish on LVS since before Shel advocated the since abandoned "Spanish Empire building" nonsense even Shel gave up on.

    That is the kind of thinking that leads one to never hedging downsides or trading around key core positions... and that group (many of them anyway) rode it down unhedged from $70+ to $35 and now again from above $80 to less than $60 until this week.

    Those with a little more cap markets knowledge likely share our view that reading what bright, knowledgeable guys (incl various pm and c suite guys as has been revealed over time) share on these boards is often worthwhile, perhaps especially when such ideas are contrary to our individual perspectives.

  • From an earlier post reply to crnjms:

    "as you know we've been talking above Vegas tables games here since a month before Steve Wynn confirmed they were using the jet fleet for VIP tours from China back in late July. Tang was also a big throb on Vegas' "recovery" a couple months back when Steve Wynn's private fleet was bringing in the VIP tours from China... April had a double digit number, then May and June showed tables games up more than 30% YOY... right before the jet travel slowed and table games revenue dropped back to 7% for July. The Nevada gaming commission has not yet published August, but they may be staring at the numbers trying to figure out why August continued to see tables games drop hard from May/June levels (Steve's planes likely not shuttling VIP from China into Vegas)... meanwhile, Vegas slots (some 2/3 of Vegas GR these days) are about flat to down in recent months... so much for the big "recovery" of gaming revenue in Vegas.

    Meanwhile, Bain has dropped his PT to $54 last week (down from $57 in early August when Ho "reset" everyone's idea of mass gaming growth for the rest of this year -- to about half the prior level). Haven't seen anyone referencing this yet, but if easing premium mass is driving that (given the rooms are all still full throughout macau as per latest data and grftt's confirming trip notes) because those direct credit players decide to "low profile" for the near term, then our reduced PT (lowered to $40 on the Ho update) will prove to be optimistic as well. Interesting that Bain, after meeting with macau execs, decided to trim $3 vs $10 as we did the day of Ho's comments in August and the sellside has done since."

    August strip numbers are in for Vegas now -- down 6% and baccarat down 12.6%! Steve's private jet fleet is done flying Asian whales to the strip already? So much for the "resurgence." Vegas "on line" poker and regional casinos in places like Baltimore and now Boston will continue to erode Vegas GR too.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    tfberynell,
    MPEL (MCP) issued a press release yesterday clarifying that they have not issued any announcement wrt finalizing the opening for COD manila, but since their partner continues to wave his arms around, and the company has said it will be a 4Q event, and all the Hyatt changes are likely in place now, it seems a decent feel that COD will open in another 6 weeks or so.

    Japan continues to be a non-event until the legislation is passed and MPEL gets a concession. meanwhile, Ho and his team have plenty of chance to show what they can do boosting tourism and gaming/tax revenues for manila, and dazzle with Studio City in another 9 months or so as well.

    Glad to see mgmt taking out shares down here... a good message they are sending with daily updates for those wondering if the Big Bad Wolf is coming down on macau or if, as the "analyst" community has cast things, the Sky Falling on China... obviously MPEL's accomplishing BODs and Packer and Ho, and two of the world's richest individuals, do not agree with the poser "analysts."

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    Seems they bought in another ~900k yesterday... great to see.... apparently they are not afraid of peaceful civil disobedience, the big bad wolf or whether the Sky might Fall on china. Based on IMF visible on the tape today, seems they are taking in another 800k or so today while the shares are being thrown out with the bath water.

    And all just ahead of the formal manila opening announcement and telling everyone that despite all the bs going on, the Sep visitation is up 4% overall in macau for this final week of September, leading right on into Golden Week opening tonight.

  • Haven't seen that before... reaching out for international tourists now? Guess they have no plans to roll tanks there either...

  • Reply to

    Another 27mm repurchased yesterday

    by therealstars1234 Sep 25, 2014 4:13 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 15 hours ago Flag

    From the good news dept. LOL

    Good to see ongoing BB

    We've done more study on the HK exchange disclosures requirements wrt share repurchases. Put simply, the HK exchange disclosure requirements are more stringent than the US markets in that other than 8k requirements here, only the subsequent '34 act filing (10Q, 10K) needs to disclose buyback activity. In contrast, HK listed companies (MPEL) are required to file "next day" reports on various matters, including any change in the issued shares. Although there is some uncertainty regarding de minimus carve outs, as a general statement all changes in outstandings shares are required to be filed with the HK exchange on the "Stock Buyback Report" we have now seen used twice by MPEL.

    With no attempt to be dispositive on this topic, and without solicited clarifying comment from the c suite (our apm was told they are complying with HK listing requirements which led to the review), we believe MPEL will continue to disclose any and all repurchase under the "next day" report. It is not clear whether these brightline disclosures overcome the "quiet" and "cooling" periods U.S listed companies follow, but it is interesting to see MPEL's buybacks being done ahead of any formal announcements wrt COD Manila opening and the 3Q results/outlook update.

    wrt the "riots", when we think of riots we think of here in LA after the Rodney King trial... in HK, other than some false starts to quell the numbers, it appears Beijing is going to let them sit around HK eating pizza and drinking coke as long as they continue to be civil and respectful of property. Since it is likely 95% of the "protesters" were not even born when tanks rolled through Tianamen Square, hopefully things remain civil and peaceful after the govts' original harshness will tear gas last week...

    Macau impact? As of this morning, this week overall visitation is up more than 4% YOY but GR likely to be off as pre GW lull/ VIP low profiling likely remain in effect.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 28, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Bump of thread to help mrtaxxx and mrtaxxxx and anyone else who thinks Ho is worried about MPEL "pulling its own weight" with respect to bringing the "IR" that is Studio City to fruition, including the table allocation planned, with govt officials at Studio City. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 28, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Start by reading the above.

    then, mr.taxxx, one of the old guys on the lvsforum cheerleader board whether lvs is at 85 or back to 60 or has building permit related construction halts or way overline holds or anything else the street discounts more than those "buy and hold" guys think righteous, seems to think this is a good place to suggest MPEL has no gaming license for Studio City. Yet Ho has amply addressed this topic with words and the design of new projects and towers. Ho has shared MPEL's view on this and table allocations for Studio City many times in recent years, although without any of Steve Wynn's "extremely confident, as confident as one can get" brashness.

    Studio City is to be an "integrated resort" -- which means destination resort with more than just casino gaming ((hotels, spa, entertainment, dining and gaming) but certainly includes casino facilities which in the end analysis is what Macau is all about.

    For those who understand the concessionaire, license and table limits issues for Macau, it is pretty comfortable to conclude that MPEL will, as Ho suggests, get their fair share of tables for Studio City.

    Ho CEO
    ....I think, on that front the Macau Government is still thinking about their strategy and also talking to the leadership in China about the quota. But based on what they have guided all these years with the table cap, I think they will allocate the tables accordingly to the diversity -- the diversification and neatness of the property. We still -- we're very confident that we'll get our fair share of those tables. But the Macau Government have not communicated with us or the properties that are opening next year. I anticipate and again, this is a best guess, that we will all going to pull above our weight on the on the fair share, we've always guided that we hope to get 400 tables or more."

    Ho and his co own 1/3 of MPEL incl 25m (HK) shares personally - he does not sound worried to us.

  • Reply to

    CITY OF DREAMS - MANILA

    by ptwhite57 Sep 27, 2014 6:19 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 28, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    you might give some thought to learning about the company before broadcasting your lack of knowledge of this company and its markets and business plan.

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg article

    by toast22342000 Sep 26, 2014 8:36 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 26, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    well said toast... As I noted this morning, MPEL ran at 99% percent occupancy and record adr despite comps during the June Q... despite the "terrifying" LOL VIP slowdown yoy... The Bloomberg article is, in that context, just the latest in a slew of weak reports on Macau from them, especially from that once venerable financial journalism house.

    Many people do not understand that when rooms are full, rooms are not available to people who are not playing in the house... MPEL is one of the masters of studying clientele spending habits... the low $ player will be staying somewhere other than MPEL or WYNN facilities from now on...

  • OT and off color for everyone else here...

    First of all FY for being such a moron and trying to ruin the board with your stupidity. I rarely see you and your idiotic alais postings, but you are too stupid to avoid using all of your alaises together it seems... too funny.

    tell your boss all the smart money unhedged shorts used this week to cover in... it is now moron headhunting season and you are the only cork soaker left here other than the LVS genius. LOL

    As for our PT? Read the board you little pos... we lowered to $40 (back to where we started late last Fall) when the analyst consensus was above $50, and bain reduced to $57. Her's now at $54 and despite two rounds of lowering by most of the "analyst group" the consensus is still $1 above our PT and sits at $41.

    Now get back to soaking those corks... all the boys are missing you.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 26, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    jim,
    As i mentioned above, MPEL is used to running VERY packed out. MPEL ran at 99% occupancy during the June Q depsite ripping up the second floor in the Crown hotel (COD Cotai) to install SoHo, the new entertain,ment/lifestyle/restaurant attraction there, and despite reworking a few of the mass gaoming floors to install new machines. etc.

    dthe98, a longtime naysayer here, says "of course they are coming now that they feel safe"? LOL... Mass visitation -- perhaps especially the upper crust of that in MPEL's 5 star facilities and premium play haven at COD -- and "nothing to get excited about because post GW back to the trend"? LOL
    Again, the "trend" is for a full house d98, yes, a 995+ plus full house means a few units off line for special guests and or refurb. Amazing...

    It just goes to show everyone reading here that those wactually ddoing some legit diligence actually understand what is happening. At least dthe98 is not a consistently present moron cork soaker like multialias putz tahoe/blacknite/mytek/idiotpumper is here... what part of Asia does such an idiot come from?

  • Fun story for a change... of course, anyone doing legit diligence (e.g., reading the SEC file) understands MPEL has run with record revpar (full occupancy, strong adr and F&B), and that is despite all the bs media noise and "govt corruption crackdown" causing VIP softness for Macau since April. Sep GGR will be light in Macau due to the ongoing graft barking as well as all the new smoking rooms being built for the various customer segments, and MPEL's new SoHo build out on the second floor of the Crown tower has obviously been disruptive. We can expect a natural lull in Macau GGR going into GW as well.

    "Macau casino shares jumped in Hong Kong trading after Sands China Ltd. (1928), controlled by billionaire Sheldon Adelson, said it expects full occupancy during China’s Golden Week.

    Advanced hotel rooms booking is “close to 100 percent” for the week-long Chinese holiday starting Oct. 1, Sands China spokeswoman Mabel Wu said by telephone today. The company had more than 9,200 hotel rooms in Macau at the end of last year, more than any other operator, she said.

    Sands China reversed earlier losses to rise 2.8 percent at the close, the biggest increase since Sept. 19. The five other Hong Kong-listed operators also gained after Bloomberg News reported Wu’s comments.

    “This is the first piece of positive news we’ve seen in weeks after a series of negative news flow,” Richard Huang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at CLSA Ltd., said by telephone. “The bookings indicate demand for traveling to Macau remains very strong, especially among mass-market gamblers who provide higher margins.”

    Macau’s gambling revenue fell a third straight month in August as a crackdown on graft and extravagance led to high-stakes Chinese gamblers avoiding the city, the only place in China where casinos are legal. The advanced booking rate suggests Macau remains attractive to gamblers even as China’s campaign to clean up government shows no sign of abating."

  • Reply to

    Manila COD

    by grftt Sep 24, 2014 9:55 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 25, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    bump so two posts on page 1... LOL

    Singapore has been close to hostile about gaming and citizenry gaming there... Manila is THRILLED to have 3k new jobs and more coming... and a huge new tax revenue base and tourism draw in manila! Looking forward to seeing what they can do there, and love their new positive minded disclosures in the 6k (10 Q) filing -- it is very upbeat.

  • Reply to

    Another 27mm repurchased yesterday

    by therealstars1234 Sep 25, 2014 4:13 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 25, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Good posts guys -- the only iones I have on page one. LOL

    ~500k of institutional trades hit in the last two minutes today... perhaps the end of Cap Re exit or other clean up trade. It would be great to see another buyback filing sharing that the company is on the buyside of those prints down here. That would be a nice use of $10m of this Qs FCF.

    I'm sure aapl has all the gear heads working 24/7 to get the patch done on i08.1... what a gift they gave to the algo players settting up to short the entire market this morning. Glad to note all of that will need to be covered in when the fix is announced,

    And great to see Nike, one of the world's great int'l companies, mash the consensus and show big orders up for 4Q! NKE beat on revs, eps and order expectations! Stock should ROAR!

  • Reply to

    Manila COD

    by grftt Sep 24, 2014 9:55 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 25, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    thanks dave... interesting comments.

    MPEL filed another $27m of buybacks done last night -- good to see them showing they care and have confidence in the future. In the context of the buyback update, fun to also be reminded that in addition to Ho's Melco corp owning 1/3 of the company (same as Packer's Crown Holdings) and his family's trusts, etc., Ho personally own some 25,000,000+ (HK basis) shares in his personal accounts. No doubt he is enjoying the buyback effects increasing his stake in the future of this company.

    otp, Some here may want to have a read through the 6K they also filed last night. It has several expanded comments about their forward positioning and an emphasis on new property development incl Studio City (initial and expansionary phases) and "iconic" Tower 5 at COD Cotai, and there are also some cool pics incl the new SoHo themed "food and lifestyle entertainment" facilities on the second floor of the Crown hotel there.

    Additionally, the feel of the 6k is very interesting reading... if one was unaware of the turmoil the Beijing "corruption crackdown" on VIP and, perhaps, premium mass play in recent months, one would think everything was going along fabulously and that mgmt has no concerns about the long run outlook og the "premium end" of mass and VIP gaming... their highlights of financial performance are entirely consistent with that feel...akin to this recap of mine: Our emphasis is on premium end of macau visitation and gaming as well as "cut above" entertainment, dining and shopping alternatives in this rapidly growing vacation, entertainment and shopping destination for all of Asia, but especially mainland Chinese visitors. We really forward to opening our new facilities in manila imminently, Studio city initial phase mid 2015, and Tower 5 in 1H17...

  • Reply to

    Cotai strip last night

    by grftt Sep 20, 2014 12:20 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 24, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    OT
    grftt,
    Again, our yhoo trade is tiny (6k shares) but catching up on some reading last night, Barron's had a fun piece on YHOO and BABA in the 9/22 edition. Author Andrew Bary (not Shuli Ren -- LOL) cited various analysts work piecing together that YHOO is worth $58 with BABA at $93 and also suggest BABA has room to run if they hit projections f2y.

    Barron's even did a credible job on BAC in that piece -- another large position (investment not trade) for us since $6/share.

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