Sheethead Shirley tries to dis me yet again below. LOL and glad janetate toast drjackoff "loves" everything here considering how F stupid his running tilt commentary us here and trust he and his "cabal" also "loved" having his bs on Macau, tables, LVS and MPEL shoved down their throats today. LOL
For anyone new here? janetate has been called out many times here as "Shirley Mason" (goog that name if you don't know that story LOL). Special thanks to his toast alias trying to diss me for months with the same expression on many aliases on this and IKGH (which he hyped with Bain from $9 down to $1 and then started using brinerbriner and jugheadus on that board as "puthimon" and "marketmaker called out"). Yeah... you can see his jackoff posts undr drjackoff, toast, janetate, tahoejack, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, fku holly, blaqnite, mytek, idiotpumper and so on... here's a recent example:
"Shirley Mason... one deceptive, underhanded piece of work, devoid of any integrity... And given your nonsense on IKGH and here, do you actually think anyone has sold any shares based on your bs "bashing?" You are almost as ridiculous as matrixtrade, the putz who has tried to dis me 300 times here when he is the F moron who hyped MPEL was going to $75 in 2014 -- the same day in Jan 2014 I explained why we were selling out/hedging the core at $43. FY both -- with a fork.
For everyone else new to Shirley Mason (aka janetate, toast, drjackoff, blaqnite, fkuholly,fkunyc, fkuimbecile and all the rest of his inane aliases used here and on various other boards to carry on conversations with himself including congratulating himself on his most always incomplete or otherwise errant "analysis" of companies he is hyping or shorting), have a good laugh with the longtimers who have repeatedly called his bs out here."
was counting on... great news for the other players without the monolithic hotels to keep full with non-gaming patrons heavy in the mix.
But little old LVS is going to be just fine over time. As Shelly said, "We have been in stormier weather than this!"
Re my comment in part 2 below:
"So LVS stock is back to where it was last week (BFD) for at least a few hours?"
Now it is above the low yesterday... is little old LVS going to close green today, right ahead of better news from other players in Macau?
Galaxy, and now LVS, has the relevant pov -- Macau is all about the future, not the prevailing environment since Zhou was arrested in late July 2014, nor LVS' struggle to keep rooms full in seasonal GGR and VIP slowness -- rough realities for their massive 3k+ room hotel complexes likely to persist for them past new Grand Opening galas at G2, SC and up through the openings at Parisian and Wynn's Palace... unless Beijing and Macau begin taking action to protect jobs, the economy and tax revenues from gaming.
On that note. add up the GR taxation, annual land and gaming concession license fees (incl directly from MPEL) and all of the multiplier effects on economic activity/employment/housing rents etc. generation on macau, and the total is likely closer to 97% of all money flow on the island. The Golden Goose matters to more than just macau and hengqin and Guandong... China needs it all too, a showplace for international visitation, tourism and pride of china. Listen to Shel's comments to the CSLA's chinese analyst for a good chuckle on this part: "Aren;t you Chinese? you looked Chinese last time I looked," said Shelly to laughs in the background. LOL
"Not true"? My points were recitation of simple facts... i did not mention Vegas because the Vegas peice is trivial, a bit player now for LVS and not the focus or the future. Do some time series charting on ebitda sourcing since 2011 and you'll see that point vividly.
If/when LVS goes to Japan and or decides they need to do something else "big" to have a critical footprint in SE Asia outside of Macau (e.g. Manila), Vegas will matter even less to LVS.
MBS is indeed very important to them right now, just as COD Manila will soon be for MPEL -- a great venue apart from the spotlight glare in Macau... yet even at that, MPEL has increased share of total GR YOY, is now getting the Altira repositioning up and going, and still some 60% of peak VIP play is running on Macau -- essentially all the big quality junket customers who are not political foes of Xi Jinping, not corrupt govt officials playing with illicit funds, and not concerned about being seen playing for high stakes because of dubious backgrounds.
MBS generated almost as much adj ebitda there (almost $500m) as they did in Macau. Those long can be glad they have that since their Macau franchise is becoming the "MGM of Vegas"... lots of big, monolithic buildings to be sure. Those properties will be great as Shel hopes if LVS and Macau can build a book of steady convention business and GGR picks up even a little bit (mass and or VIP), but not as desirable a place to place for the monied player -- same as Vegas, the valuable patron actually gaming wants to stay in the more tailored venues in Macau... that is why MPEL and Wynn have better table/room key metrics.
But hey, LVS is good at the game and as Shelly said on the call, "We have been through much stormier weather than this and [he thinks] we are at the bottom now in Macau." That said, if I were long I would much rather see them crank up the buyback program vs paying out big regular and annual dividends. same for MPEL and WYNN, especially with the shares hammered down here.
On a brighter note, they still generated over $1B of adj ebitda for the Q and MBS (Singapore) numbers were very solid, even discounting the flat but fat holds. VIP continues to be ho hum for them, the legacy they brought onto themselves alienating the junkets in 2012. All of that is a nice backdrop for MPEL's Manila operations which, although just opened in feb, is likely now rolling out at least some of the 300 VIP suites in the Crown hotel there. Singapore for LVS and COD manila for MPEL are good news for both companies -- a place for VIP and premium mass (direct credit) players who want to avoid the spotlight glare in Macau.
Shel was also call it brilliant discussing the visitation limits... but a big yawn anyway. No one mentioned smoking bans... what? LOL Why hasn;t someone suggested smoking floors could perhaps be staffed with only those staff persons who smoke and want to work on smoking floors? Hard to suggest they would be "unduly" exposed to health risks...
So LVS stock is back to where it was last week (BFD) for at least a few hours? Pending supportive policy changes for Macau, those big, monolithic buildings of LVS are going to struggle to stay above 90% occupancy for some time given the new venues, especially Studio City and Wynn's palace next year, are going to be the places valuable patronage will want to "stay and play."
Longtimers here know we've often used LVS (and WYNN and mostly MGM) to hedge the MPEL allocations, but we've also minted long LVS (and the others) many times as shared right here when done. I'll pass on a detailed recap of LVS, but the aerial flyover is relevant to MPEL.
Shel continues to not grasp that people who know the business actually understand normalized holds. Unfortunately for them, the house did not play so lucky as they did in the PY quarter... at least they were consistent in not discussing holds much. Shel still seems oblivious that having the biggest room count, ebitda and earnings doesn't mean much unless one understands that ebitda relative to tables/keys and capital invested is what matters. Would someone who cares tell Goldstein to explain ROIC to Shel and the other parts just noted? LOL
Also predictable is that LVS VIP numbers are low. On one hand they say they don't care because they are not interested in that business, and on the other Goldstein continues to say at conference that they want to create relationships with the big, quality junkets... Rob understands that they ought not be excluding themselves from quality business during the current lull and that (VIP's low margins aside) there is something to say for generating ebitda.
Shel shared that the Venetian was packed out last week while the execs were there --good news -- and even the CSLA guy notes that Beijing is leaning into policy/stimulus for the economy that ought to help Macau over time. They went around on how great it is to have so many rooms -- the most in cotai and more than all the rest combined, but as has been the case (ebitda/table/key, adr metrics) since the Cotai strip opened, LVS massive monlithic buildings are not the "choice" place to stay or play. Surreal if you listen to the call, but Shel's focus on room nights for non-gaming patrons is ironically alot like MGM's Vegas franchise (~it's ok if people don't gamble, we will make money on F&B and ADR)... cont
Cool Bloomberg piece out on these guys too. It is the same 100 or so top corruption targets Xi Jinping's "tigers and flies" corruption crackdown, then "fox hunt" and now "skynet" derivatives team has been talking about since Zhou's (China's former national security director now convicted of massive fraud crimes) arrest in late july shook everyone up on China's search for real crooks and Xi Jinping's political foes alike.
China has now released more details/photos, departing flights and likely locations of the specific people it is still hunting down. Many of these people are alleged have stolen millions and billions from China via fraud, extortion, embezzlement and so on... but read several of the aritcles to learn there is not a peep about corruption or money laundering in Macau, nor has anyone running casinos in Macau been put on any list.
Yet none of these people or their friends are going to be seen in any casinos anywhere if we were guessing... an no, they are not playing in Vegas and haven't since last July as noted on various prior threads. So who are the players still playing on quality. legit VIP tours in Macau? Xi Jinping's pals and everyone else with legit wealth that is not at risk of being sent to jail or worse.
goog title for WSJ article, but the Economist and Bloomberg pieces and others are better and more info/links
If they remain on track with the timing they have shared with the street, COD Manila is likely opening up those 300 VIP suites at Crown Resorts right about now...
Then a few comments on Bain's update courtesy ad hominem breath toast drjackoff...
The analysts paying attention know the story on Manila though Shirley's pal Bain does not... frankly, I am surprised Bain still has a job after his blown calls on IKGH and the gaming sector altogether... he has not gotten around to even thinking in terms pm do -- most have done as we have, adding shares but hedging out a lot of the downside since last July with various tactics --many of which were shared as put on and taken off right here as matrixputz and Shirley's little cabal trading club and conversation with himself reveal over and over.
But someone ought to tell Bain that MPEL is decidedly not "under-followed" vs the group... he must not have access to a Bloomberg terminal where someone could show him that MPEL has only 2 less publishing analysts than does MGM, WYNN and LVS. When Jefferies completes the SA buyout, Bain can always try his luck at open microphone night at one of the clubs here in LA. LOL
Reading your question twice, I am not clear what you have for numbers, but I'll expand on what I wrote prior.
The "guideline" (not a promulgated rule or law) is that Macau's annual table growth will be limited to 3% per year for the ten year period... so now take their program inception number and multiply it by 1.03 out through the end of the ten year period and you will have the math for the referenced "average annual rate of growth of 3% -- and what I wrote: ~ 1800 more tables to come until the end. Do your own math, but the "170" tables /existing casino is another point entirely.
N.B. that LVS opened the rest of Cotai in 2013 and that annual limit was exceeded by a bunch, but they have clarified many times that they meant what they said "average annual growth." Macau officials (and DICJ) obviously issued this guideline with full knowledge of the pipeline project plans they have approved for Integrated Resorts development and also any more dribs from the Wharf scene, and so knew they would have a lull for 2014 (their basis for the calculation actually reflected a decrease of some 80+ tables last year as you may know) and that 2015, 2016 and 2017 would be big surge years for the 7 major properties with significant casinos coming in this timeframe.
After this second wave of Cotai development though, things ease hard from a pipeline perspective out through the end of the 10 year period. As noted in my recap on the topic, the practical reality is that they may push hard enough on the limits to shut down or sharply curtail the size and capital devoted to new projects after the current wave of ~$25B being spent on the projects with cement poured already... but if they want another dozen or so art museaum at this special purpose SAR, that is what quality management teams will do -- sending their capital and resorts developments to other venues where it will be greeted with open arms as per the Manila piece from Asian Gaming journal I shared prior.
I see matrixputz is running his mouth again today... read the above for the story on that idiot.
and in the conversation with himself, Shirley praises blaqnite's bs here. LOL remember this? Yeah, the record is clear.
Shirley suggests "mark my words"... he forgets we already have right here where janetate,toast,drjackoff, idiotpumper,tahoejack,mytek, matrixtrade and all the rest of his coy cork soaking on his other bs aliases' posts.
I already did "mark your words"
From january 7th:
and speaking of entertainment... how about that darqnite putz...
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value", then he tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL
"blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
0users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here
I meant to note earlier that some may have noticed LVS ratings were held steady on their big rewirte/increae with their lender group.
Some may have noticed that SC bonds nor any of MPEL's other bonds have been downgraded... do you suppose it might have something to do with the reality that MPEL continues to generate on the order of $1B USD of adj ebitda on an annual run rate basis despite the slowdown all operators are adjusting to?
Then too the rating agencies actually understand the business and financial statements and that both Manila and much of SCity's operating costs were being carried in the 4Q numbers, but there was only a whisper of the big revenue stream increases to come now that COD Manila is ramping, and Studio City is going to take significant share from the less exciting venues apart from COD on Cotai.
Boy you "know" a lot with "for sure" for such a clueless ad hominem chump posting non-stop drivel all day...
As for Studio City, it will appeal to some premium players to be sure, but moreso it will be for young families coming to experience Studio City and its Hollywood theme. VIP players will not go there to play, dine and watch shows or go on rides or swim... nah. It will be an entirely new and differently postioned venue from altira and COD both... different target clientele drjackoff toast.
A here's the thing Bain has had right for over a year. Studio City will be the fun place many will want to come and stay in and have fun and be entertained in. SC occupancy will be packed out just as COD continues to be even through this trough... and COD will continue to be the venue of choice for elite wealthy premium end Chinese players signed up with direct credit with the house... another item you didn;t understand... rmember doug?
You are a riot though... off to dinner we go now. Get your rest up so you can post another 20 rehashes of the indenture disclosure on SC that has been on file for well over a year since the debt was filed. LOL
I just went to read it because Shirley is so excited. A big yawn here...
It repeats old news discussed here various times prior that Galaxy 2 and Parisian are known and abuzz about being light on the current round of table allocations, in no small part because the two properties are not entirely model citizens in terms on new diversification.
No #$%$ they will be moving tables drjackoff... they are both rumored to be getting somewhere between 100 and 150 tables only at inception for those two properties. ho hum
Shirley aka jane tate toast drjackoff has gone full tilt on 20 posts a day with nothing to say on any one of them.
I liked him better as drjackoff and toast -- he shared bain's cheerleading more often on those than he has with this sheethead janetate alias... but he went full tilt as toast too... even moreso as tahoejack. LOL
My comments assume basic english language comprehension so that even the confederacy of dunces here should be able to figure out how stupifyingly idiotic their running commentary has been on this.
But just for you, I'll sum up the three key points made more succinctly. First, MPEL's Studio City certainly "checks all of the boxes" from Beijing, Macau and Leong Tac's desk with a big fat green felt tip permanent marker pen, and if any new property is to get a "fair and reasonable" table allocation, Studio City should top the list and be patted on the head by Beijing and Macau politicians for the overt effort to pursue diversification of tourism and entertainment.
Second, even if they do not get a robust table allocation for SC, it is certainly not going to be "lights out" or "reorg" or anything near those draconian levels for Studio City or the funding banks, and decidedly not for MPEL proper. There are many levers and switches at their disposal should they need them over the 17 months until the "400 tables" bogey even matters.
Third, the idiot brigade here led by Shirley Mason (goog that name for laughs and recall toast, drjackoff and janetate as well as many other alaises here are all that one #$%$ lad) continues to post dozens of idiotic repeats of the same headlines every day here... who must be paying him 2 cents per post? LOL
5. Another Fin101 concept is the notion of covenant waivers and consents. Assume that none of the foregoing framework or several other aspects are broguht to the fore to resolve any pseudo default getting less than 400 tables at inception might otherwise present. The lending group is highly unlikely to try to press MPEL on refinancing the entire line... what they want in terms of the development financing risk they are taking as a sundicated group is to have the best management team and operator possible building and then operating the IR they have extended credit too. Lawrence Ho likes to say that MPEL's employees are in good hands with MPEL... MPEL lenders are also in the very best hands in the business when it comes to Macau operations. In other words, there is likely NFW they are going to F around with MPEL's indentures and capital structure in the event the macau govt short changes property developers, incl MPEL in this context.
6. Have you noticed not a single detractor here or other blogs or even the dip #$%$ analysts have mentioned any of this stuff? That is because they have no idea what crop finance is all about... a final point on that is the real issue would be if MPEL were to try work an arrangement to take some of a fat allotment from SC to other venues (e.g., Altira's new VIP suite concepts after installing "at least" 400 tables... this is a real issue for the lenders in the event SC were to be able to work out a mod with its own partner.
Well, enough of this series... let the "big bad wolf" can huff and puff all day long on 400 tables -- he's not gonna blow the SC house down.
LOL at the morons already replying with their dog #$%$ here -- notice they have nothing to say except trying to dis me with 5th grade comments? F idiot cabal is right Shirley (aka drjackoff toast janetate). LOL
Further, there is obviously lots of slack in the current table counts and electronic tables on Macau, meaning that more tables are not really going to be needed until gaming velocity recovers hard, and then absorbs increased table limits on the private salons and public floors.
3. The 400 tables is a complete red herring for several reasons. First, it does not come into effect until late october 2016, not on the open during Q#15, October 2016. Second, MPEL can internal rework the partnership agreement should it become necessary/desirable to avoid a technical default. A simple example would be like this: if they get only 240 tables, they could transfer in 160 from other venues and modify the 60/40 GR sharing to 75% for MPEL at 400 tables. Third, study the opening sequencing at COD Manila. They have rolled out only about half of the approved tables so far... this is particularly relevant given that SC will be not so much about VIP -- a lot of mechanised tables will help with the target crowd, and adjustments will always be made as needed. I could go on but F that.
4. The banks on the financing incl some involved on LVS new rollup for Parisian. Does anyone really think a 7 bank consortium would try to press a debtor led default with cross collateral/cross default provision that may be caused by Macau govt's stupid policy (awards of tables) on table allocations if in fact they are going to be super light for Galaxy 2 and parisian and maybe even the richly deserving of tables SC? If so, you have no idea how corp finance works. They will not shoot themselves in the head we are "guessing." LOL If they do that, Tower 5, SC 2, Galaxy 3 and 4 and another 6-7 projects on the drawing boards will all become something like cultural art museums and the like -- some much for another 25-30k jobs and billions and billions of increased annual GR tax generation to build out Hengqin and surrounds.
Gaming License cont.
Seems people forget one has to have ALL casino properties vetted and fully reviewed and approved PRIOR to construction, which, while subject to mods, certainly makes it abundantly clear macau has approved all casino floors and capacities. In context, it is completely ridiculous for anyone to suggest MPEL has "no license" nor entitlement to host gaming activity at SC.
SC Table Allocation and "New" Disclosure
As for the 400 tables that need to be in place no later than October 2016? Posted on this many times here prior to them disclosing the relatively new bond indenture (prima facie red herring -- see below -- handled like that intentionally just now), but that indenture has been on file over a year now. See why reading documents as they are filed matters to serious money mgmt?
1. The 3% guidleine is not law or a rule -- it is guidance. SC ought to fare better than any other firm in terms of knocking themselves out to be responsive to the request for "diversification of tourism attractions and entertainment experiences" given all they have coming with SC when it opens 3Q. As Ho has quipped, their is going to be more diversity at Studio City than the rest of macau combined.
2. Do your own math with DICJ data, but on the established baseline, the 3% annual AVERAGE works out to some 1800 tables plus the 80 decline reported for 2014 vs 2013 which we presume was the tables WYNN and MPEL had offline last year end as VIP rooms were being redone, or call it about 250 tables apiece for the resorts currently under construction with Macau-approved development plans. Albeit current distribution of tables is skewed heavily toward the large resorts on Cotai, consider the pro forma 250 tables/per coming new properties "average" allocation per property to the roughly 170 tables/operating casino currently in Macau.