Thanks for the post, another good recap of the high points on footprint expansion.
We continue to think a meaningful cash dividend is not going to happen anytime soon. Frankly, this analyst's continued reference to a common dividend coming soon is plain wrong. Last year he said in 2013, then a few months ago he said by year end and I think he said it again in early November.
What Ho has said, repeatedly and also repeatedly pushing back the date, is that they will continue to review the capital distribution policy. We think that means he is listening to portfolio managers, incl us, who think this company is better than any other gaming company at deploying capital and has plenty of uses for ebitda and capital vs heavy debt financing or giving it back in tax efficient repurchases or less desired cash dividends. If you talk to this analyst, you might ask him if he talks with some of the longtime hedge funds in the stock -- we've done no work on his clients, but they must be retail for him to continue thinking dividends are important for the stock; the sponsorship doesn;t want that until the footprint expansion is done because paying dividends will mean issuance of shareowner dilution to fund expansion. As we wrote about dividends a while back here, we think most pm do not think a common div is a good idea here, and we are pretty sure Ho is hearing that loud and clear, thus fully explaining how "we'l' review the policy in Dec Q as part of BOD agenda" has now been pushed off to "sometime in 1H 2014"...
The analyst's note also references "stable" China GDP growth." We've seen not much on that, but they lowered their official growth target to 7% for 2014 Tuesday, down from 7.5%. We know that really means more like 2% than 3% if they reported real data, but that likely has convinced a few pm to either sell out for now or further lock down the 2013 gains pending the next cc and ebitda inputs for 2014.
Other than Ackman's position, most of the remaining SI and surely most of the 1m new shorts are likely comprised almost entirely of pm box shorts to lock in the huge gains for 2013s mgmt fee purposes.
These big gains were gifted by Ackman and other shorts this year... they will all be hurling that gasoline on the fire once the buyback news hits before year end, and in january at the latest as HLF resumes the run to $100+.
Did you see the huge premarket short covering today? 150 shares up $.73/share! That means that texcrement, swampi, imhummia, tubofshite and all the other members of the pakiville trading club covered in a fire exit panic. LOL
click on the alias to see how we have made out this year on names like gmcr, sbux, hlf, lvs, mpel, pcln, expe, dal, lcc, alk, tpx, dnkn, gs, bac, wfc, aig, mako to name most of our 2013 allocations... As you can see for the clicking, we are actually pretty good at this. LOL
This is a fabulous opportunity, exactly the kind of set up we love to play.
The saga here began with close to a wipeout followed by massive retrenching and mgt changes. That was followed by a couple of years of surprisingly good progress, Atkins diet fade (LOL), and very lately a big old wad of momo players chasing this to the latest double, all of which was followed by an amateur hour conference call where "good ol' boy" aw shucks mgmt thought they had it all set to chuckle their way through a tiny rev miss, but also a bush leaguer approach to articulating 2014 growth in revenue and footprint/store count terms as well as weak preparedness to explain ss comps for the franchise stores, except to say they think it will get better, maybe even have some price upside and actually have some answers and, novel here, well considered guidance for 2014 ready for the next call.
Meanwhile, all the momentum guys have now bailed out in a panic exacerbated by several funds bailing out on big gains netted here as well as others box hedge shorting for the huge gains coming here next year into the market turmoil over the last two weeks (as pm incl us have hedged out ytd performance to lock down incentives).
Why do we think this has the potential to be a HUGE winner next year? The company has clearly learned from past expansion butches and now established new religion about expansion criteria, requiring strong operators with financial stability. Ca is just getting going, they are expanding in many new markets domestically and internationally, and a modest price lift will be magic for rev, margins, operating leverage, ebitda, and eps. They also have a $50m share buyback in place now.
Regarding new markets, today they announced North India with have 35 stores with the first one opening this week. Same news with Taiwan this week.
On all that and more markets coming, we think it is time to wade right in. So we added large at 17.90 into the close.
Come'n get us short dweebs!
All the big beta stocks up 100% or more this year took a big hit as the last vestiges of hedge funds unhedged likely locked down box short offsets into EOY or news catalysts boinging a rip higher, whichever comes first.
Easy for us to say F it on reinstating a trading sleeve. That can wait for a better market tone and some news here. otp, we now look to pull the core hedge and join the torching higher once the leveraged buyback is announced, even if that takes until the earnings call... old Bill has a lot of shoving to get his ridiculous puts itm though... do es anyone think he can shove it down to $32 singlehandedly? LOL
Meanwhile, for all the gumps worried about our capital as per their repeatedly inane comments on losses and "panic" (LOL), we're 100% hedged above $72 now on the core owned at $38, so you need not worry your little minds on that. LOL
I don't see any 13D filing update, do you? You and Cramerbull and another 30 or so guys who have said that every time this stock or the market dips apparently do not understand the transactional filing requirements once one is under 13D.
Lines? Check out Union Square -- all day long despite the new store on the other side! Actually, check out every store in NYC... tslk sbout gold mine. LOL
Can you read you putz? After fliipping out of trading sleeve number 15 or so here with just shy of another $3 pop, we want someone to push this down to $70 again for us. We know you, with all of your aliases combined in that #$%$ trading club, likely have no position having been quashed as the stock ran above $40, so we are just making fun of you retail unhedged shorts here. LOL
As for our core position, we put that on at $38 last March and pulled the box hedge at $68 (early on on the way down to Stiritz's and the Sep Q buyback level of $64. But thanks for worrying about us you F idiot, it has been reassuring to see how incredibly uninformed, inept and lacking in sophistication you f clowns are here.
This billtopper #$%$ head is now stalking me from the hlf board. LOL What a complete putz.
If anyone gives a S, I already answered this morons's attempt to dis us on the HLF board. But I'll excerpt it here just to make it plain what a gumptard she is. LOL
Now this f putz is stalking me. The f moron (note he posts on all the same boards as tubofshite, texcrement, swampmeat, smokedputzbreath, etc) asks if i am still recommending FIO at $36. The last time I talked about FIO at $36 was right after the ipo where we said we were out above that.
Anyone who followed our several round trips on [FIO] knows we ran it from sub $20 to above $30 three times before mgmt really butched it followed by our in at $18 out at $15 when the original ceo and the other co-founder resigned to being only on the board. Subsequently, right on that little board, we called for a trading buy at $12 and sold out at $15 and shorted a small position saying there would be no sale near term. As noted on that board, we covered at just above $10. You may also note, as we point out often, we tend to shy away from discussing micro and small caps because they are often tough to trade in the size we need to have a meaningful impact on our roic.
This new alias the putz is using here must have spent hours trying to find something he thinks we blew a call on (again, we did not on FIO as detailed above). Here's a partial list of the names, all available for the clicking as this stalk f head learned the hard way vs taking out credibility at face value, we ran this year to drive an 84% ytd return as of last Friday: hlf, gmcr (up and down),dnkn, sbux, aapl (reload at $389) lvs, mpel, mako (short from 36 last year to cover at $11 then long from $12 to 15.80 but missed the sale to Stryker), expe, pcln, dal, alk, lcc, ual (lately), FB (big short at $35 followed by long at $19 out too early at $28), gs (long at $89 out early at $140) bac, wfc and so on...
Easy call for us to hedge out the core above $38 this morning (almost a 5 point swing from the lockdown a month ago at $36+ with box short cover sub $34.
We also blew out the trading sleeve (again). Delightful to sell to the short chumps while they are chasing the ask. LOL
We're looking to replace the latest (smaller) trading sleeve we flipped out as vol surged last night... counting on you short dweeb morons with 50 shares short and the numb effers running the sell program yesterday to push back to $70 for us.
maybe imhummia can post how it is "impossible to squeeze the stock" or that Uncle Carl is going to sell out his shares now that the lockup is trail dust for the umpteenth time.
IBD has this with a 99 composite rating and "in buying range" within pennies of the pivot at $73.28. LOL
and hey, maybe tonight they will file the 8k? LOL
We don't write here in any professional capacity, it is largely entertainment value for us. Have you given a good study to the stocks we've talked about for the last few years here, though? We are actually very good at mm. LOL
About you, I was replying to what sounded like yet another weak sauce attempt to dis me on holx which is a tiny position we doubled on the dip and which we are call it b/e on. I was surprised to think you were trying to dis me as the moron mulple alias f heads do here... but you are one of 2-3 guys worth reading here. LOL
But angry? not -- just #$%$ down the napes of the necks of morons posting nonsense bs on my threads. Fun really when I have time... these guys must be from pakiville. LOL
Last night on fast money, this legendary pm singled out DAL as the singular stock to own for appreciation in 2014.
That follows more than a double this year!
AAL is now running ahead of itself as it will take two years to get the combination synergies DAL will be running with 100% in 2014.
Says DAL is ready to RIP higher throughout next year.
LCC is now two years away, best case, from generating the synergies DAL will benefit fully from in 2014.
Then there is UAL, who promises again and again they will try to be more like DAL if they can ever do better managing the process of running a major airline. LOL
We almost never watch Cramer (the horns, baby crying, yelling and hyperbole take away from his otherwise deep equity market knowledge and experience which shines through the arm waving and ranting too rarely) but saw his very right on comments on SBUX in the airport last night.
Summing up in my words not his, Cramer explained that SBUX is one of the seriously great U.S.-based growth stories and that "some analyst's" (ITG's kid that looks 14 years old and interviewed on CNBC like he is 12, had never been on TV, and has all the financial and market savvy of a trading club putz) misinterpretation of data that supposedly reflects a slowing of same store sales is ridiculous and that the 3% drop see [yesterday] may impact one more day, but then it will be time to BUY BUY BUY.
As those who read my irrefutable post here yesterday understand, we agree completely with that assessment.
Comments yesterday in part:
"We are thrilled with the special sale price good for another day or two max.
SBUX is one of the best managed companies in the sector... lots of runway ahead with Teavana, single serve branding and premier quality.
IBD ranks them number two in the group
This fake drop will be over quickly; just a blip that almost disrupted the chart (but anyone reading our posts knows we think charts are fun, but fundamentals and quant are the drivers for sustained outperformance for all stocks. SBUX was a great allocation this year; next year will be powerful as well."
lots of quality replies here, and only a couple of morons who suk on every posts here. LOL
Cramer was also terrific in his assessment of this ITG (who?) "analyst" call on sbux... essentially saying the guy misinterpreted unavailable same store data, but that he (Cramer) is sure that SBUX is doing great and that the stock will be back ripping higher in another day or so. LOL
As we can all see this morning, the VDO putz from the shanghai trading club is here again sharing his ignorance and stupidity as well as his inability to write a sentence in english.
His comments also reflect a complete lack of understanding of MPEL's ebitda, revenue and ebitda growth relative to footprint, and what is coming on line over the next two years.
He's an expert in nonsense though -- just ask him and his multiple aliases and other trading club pals who can write a sentence about how the restrictions to shut down "ultra cheap shopping tours" are going to ruin the State-sponsored gaming, convention and visitation center for all of China. Of course, as with his every post whether on VDO or shanghigay or other aliases that all hang together, his comments were also ridiculous on that .