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squeezetracker 381 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Portugal's weak banks need capital, but the sky has not fallen on China yet... LOL

    BEIJING—Chinese exports grew in June on the back of strengthening U.S. consumer demand, in a positive sign for China's factory sector and for the global economic outlook.

    The pace of export growth disappointed some economists, though others blamed the lingering impact of distortions in last year's Chinese trade numbers used to make the comparison.

    "The global demand recovery is still on track but the momentum is very modest," said Ma Xiaoping...

    Chinese exports expanded by 7.2% year-over-year in June, compared with the 7% year-over-year increase in May, according to China's General Administration of Customs on Thursday. This was below the median forecast of 10% growth from a Wall Street Journal poll of 21 economists.

    Some economists shrugged off the shortfall. "A number over 7% is quite decent, quite real," said Lu Ting, economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "I think it's the right pace for China based on global demand. Forget about expectations"

    Others cited strong import data, which suggested solid demand from Chinese consumers and a positive impact on China's efforts to speed up infrastructure spending and loosen credit—moves economists call a ministimulus.

    "We saw imports go up quite a lot," said ANZ economist Li-Gang Liu. "And the strong trade surplus will vindicate the U.S. view that the Chinese are still accumulating a large trade surplus, suggesting that the renminbi might not have reached its fair value."

    ...export momentum does appear to be returning, analysts said. U.S. imports of goods from China increased in each of the past four months to reach $37.99 billion in May, according to Commerce Department data. Despite tepid global economic growth in recent years, China has continued to pick up market share. Nearly 20% of goods imported globally by the U.S. now come from China, up from 16% in 2008... [big share of pie on a much bigger base we'll add]

  • Reply to

    quick review of where things stand

    by drjackcar Jul 9, 2014 3:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Re "Anything else?" We could use a Woody Allen horse manure sock factory for the media... add Zacks to the Barrons' and IBD "hall of stupidity" crowd.

    doc, the conversion of the most desirable stay and play patrons from VIP tours to direct credit relationship "Premium Mass" players is poorly understood by call it almost everyone -- but certainly most analysts and sellsiders from a significance standpoint. Premium mass and VIP trendlines at MPEL are more than expressed by MPEL's results -- this conversion dynamic is the PLAN and why MPEL is mashing competitors on a pound for pound basis. It is also a serious piece of why MPEL remains in fabulous standing with the political leadership in Macau... catering to these highly valuable visitors is valuable to MPEL, but it is also that to Macau's politicians, shop owners, restauranteurs and other cultural development aspects for the island and surrounding buildouts.

    We don't think credit availability is an issue for most quality tours or players, but losing the cream players to direct Premium Mass is not going to be good for tour operators dso/collection stats. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Part 3

    "Our development pipeline continues to progress, with Studio City on-budget and on-track to open in mid-2015, while the timing of our Philippines Project remains unchanged and is expected to open around the middle of next year. Both of these exciting development opportunities are key components of our strategy to maximize return on invested capital and drive long term shareholder value."

    Reread that last sentence for emphasis -- do you think they are going to Manila to dilute their ROIC? We sure do not as discussed at length here by us a few times since 2012.

    "Macau continues to deliver robust growth across all gaming and non-gaming segments in 2013, highlighting its unique position to cater to the rapidly evolving Asian consumer and expanding middle class. Similarly, our Manila project is well positioned to address this segment in the Philippines and the broader region providing another destination to a wider array of consumers seeking a broader leisure and entertainment proposition. Both of these markets are expected to benefit meaningfully from wide-reaching development plans and significant infrastructure improvements, helping to improve access and enhance customer experience."

    Here is more reference to doing more than just gaming in Macau and Manila -- and identifying and capitalizing on the emerging trends in mass and PREMIUM MASS that MPEL is leading the pack on. Ring any bells about what Pansy was calling her visionary thing in the article this week? LOL More like she is trying her level best to think of what brother Lawrence would say and ascribe that "vision thing" to herself whenever she finds herself standing next to an open microphone.

    We look forweard to the june Q results and updated outlook from MPEL... we like Lawrence's upod framing of 15% GGR growth for Macau this year (said knowing VIP was being crossed into Premium Mass by MPEL) and can hardly wait to see more info on their "PHENOMENAL" Golden Week that began May.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Part 2

    "Adjusted EBITDA(1) was US$330.1 million for the second quarter of 2013, as compared to Adjusted EBITDA of US$203.8 million in the comparable period of 2012. The 62% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA was [primarily] attributable to strong growth in the mass market table games segment at City of Dreams..."

    A ceo focused on quant and FCF generation?

    Ho:
    "I am pleased to report another successive quarter of record earnings and EBITDA, building on the strong momentum in the first quarter of 2013.

    "Highlighting the ideal strategic positioning of our flagship property, City of Dreams, this premium-mass focused property once again captured meaningful market share in the mass market table games segment which, in turn, has been the major driver of our impressive group-wide performance in the second quarter of 2013. City of Dreams' unique ability to cater towards these highly discerning, premium mass market-focused customers is highlighted by our market-leading mass table yields, which is increasingly important in a table supply constrained market."

    "Premium mass focused property" is pointed here... as the most desirable players and MPEL have forged their very own direct stay and play relationships including credit arrangements settled up every 30 days, you need not wonder too much why VIP GGR growth has diminished in macau YOY, quite apart from all of the other headline bs and particularly as other venues try to follow MPEL's leadership on this dynamic.

    Here's more from ho on that: "We continue to move forward with the fifth hotel tower at City of Dreams and anticipate to commence construction by the end of 2013. This iconic additional hotel tower represents another powerful addition to our wide array of amenities and attractions that City of Dreams already offers its premium-mass and high end customers, providing another tool to further extend our leading position in this key segment."

    Tower 5 is rolling on schedule as poer subsequent updates.

  • This is fun stuff for longs... LOL

    Start by reading my latest "Quant fun" post that Sybil, who is dumber than dirt from all visible references and can't do 3rd grade math as we've seen before, apparently doesn't like. (ROFL) Yeah, if mass is growing at 36% in macau and MPEL is leading the pack on that piece of the pie and now pushing 80% of revenue from that vs VIP, matrix got it right 80% up 36% is (net) gaming rev growth of around 28% [(0% x 20%) + (36% x 80%)] for MPEL this Q -- even if VIP is flat/zero % growth for them during the 2Q14.

    Compare that framework to the range of brokerage estimates out there for the June Q. The consensus number gets to around 3.5% growth, while the highest number of $1.51B drives growth of 17% yoy for the June Q. There's some room for upside surprise here, huh?

    Sounds too optimistic? Maybe so (wry smile). Everyone who has more than 10 shares long here ought to go back and study last year's June Q a bit. Lawrence Ho's quote in the PR were all about how ideally positioned MPEL's COD was for pursuing their premium mass and mass gaming growth with constrained table growth for everyone. Seems he understands the ebitda and margin numbers on all these little quant details...

    Without footprint expansion, during the June Q13, net revs grew 37% YOY! Reflecting the operating leverage, adj ebitda grew 62% YOY fir the Q ended June 2013. 62%! One might study the terms if they are a mystery because that is driving what Ho called MPEL's key objectives of "maximizing ROIC" and further expanding their ideal position in Macau and coming with COD Manila and Macau Studio City on schedule. Sybil and unhedged shorts can pass -- they don't know how to do math. LOL

    Here's some more from Ho with my color comments:

  • The idiots at Zacks obviously has no idea what an "Integrated Resort" is or what the difference is between flat VIP for the Macau IRs vs MPEL growing mass/premium mass AT LEAST as much as Macau's reported 35%+ for the 2Q14 overall.

    Here's quant fun in the form of a 3rd grade math quiz one can use to help develop an understanding of the MPEL story. If 20% of their gaming revenue stream is growing at 0% for the quarter (i.e., VIP is flat yoy), and the mass gaming portion (some 80% of MPEL's revenue -- by far best in class) is growing at 35%+ for 2Q14 yoy with a margin of more than 3x the VIP business, then how much will MPEL have for increased gaming revenue expressed in percentage terms yoy?

    Answer:

    a. 0%

    b. Negative 3.7%

    c. 28%

    d. No one can tell so it is best to sell the stock, especially since a complete idiot posts dog S under 30 or so aliases here all day long.

    Soon to come: a fifth grade math quiz on what operating leverage means to adj ebitda growth for MPEL.

    ROFLOL

  • Reply to

    something is wrong?

    by matrixtrade123 Jul 9, 2014 11:38 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    If anyone had any doubt about how absolutely useless Zacks "Investment Research" is, their "analysis" of MPEL today should be reason you get a refund back on your subscription cost. I've never read anything from them worth acting on, but this takes the cake. What a POS -- good for nothing except maybe training a new puppy in the house.

    The Sybil (aka poser Shirley Mason) multiple personality idiot talking to herself on 30 names here all day long must be the author for that nonsense. MSC a waste if no gaming license? Search on "table limit" on thios board for authoritative sources to think through that bs. LOL

  • Reply to

    Typhoon Neoguri Misses Philippines...

    by squeezetracker Jul 7, 2014 1:39 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 7, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    great comments... the good news about Vegas VIP last month is that Steve and Shel must have done some "old school" charter flights bringing in the Asian players. That let Tam pound his head into the pile of bs he helped mound regarding UnionPay machines (that is all about nothing of meaning to the elite venues), Visa nonsense (5 vs 7 days), smoking "bans" (that will turn out to be a benefit to those who do not want to be in smoke-filled casinos and yet a convenient place to smoke for those who do want to breath tobacco air all night), "corruption" crackdowns (yawn, but good comedy from Tam), table limits (that really aren't remotely adhered to even as rough guidelines), and so on and on... and since then he's clarified that UnionPay restrictions are just bs and tried to make the soccer excuse for why things looked slow for VIP last month.

    Buttboy Tam and all of the central planners over there likely have had a huddle or two about protecting the Golden Goose that is Macau gaming, visitation, tourism, travel, restaurants, credit fees, etc.... All good news for Macau's future GGR growth.

    We were going to add more yet another good slug here today but the DAL opportunity was too compelling to do anything else with capital today. As for the multialias #$%$ still using 20 aliases here daily, way too funny. I wonder if he was able to shake out 200 shares from the 48 retail investors reading here daily. LOL

    The pm coming up the learning curve on this story (and LVS for that matter) are buying all the putz brigade will gift down here. Just think: if VIP is flat for MPEL, then they will have GR growth of "only" about 28% this quarter. LOL

  • Hey grftt, do you have more info on whether this hurt the Philippines in any way? This report said it largely missed the Philippines... This storm is supposed to bring sustained winds of 150 mph and gust up to 200 mph and waves up to 45' high! to Okinowa Japan... they are calling it the strongest superstorm EVER. Hopefully people get their families away from coastal areas!

    "The Philippines was spared from the ferocious winds of Neoguri, which blew closest to land late Monday when it roared about 480 kilometers (298 miles) east of the northernmost province of Batanes, government weather forecaster Gladys Saludes said.

    While the typhoon did not make landfall, it intensified the southwest monsoon, dumping heavy rains to some western Philippine provinces, she said."

  • Reply to

    3 REASONS WE ARE BACK TO LONG

    by squeezetracker Oct 30, 2013 2:23 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 7, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Ain't that special?

  • Reply to

    China's economy improving

    by grftt Jul 7, 2014 7:38 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 7, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    My fav part of the great news china is broadcasting:
    “China’s economic performance in the second quarter has been improved from that in the first quarter. However, we cannot lower our guard against downward pressure,” Li said.

    And the new board dufus keeping us busy stuffing the ignore bin (unreal that yahoo lets abusive dolts post with more than one alias per company) is talking about Macau stocks "tanking" after the latest analyst upgrade? LOL

    Yeah, the HK shares were down 1% overnight -- on a "whopping" 17400 shares. Converting that to the U.S.-listed ADS share equivalent, that is a mouth-dropping 5800 shares worth of painting the tape. But it is funnier than that: the HK shares were up that amount last Friday while U.S. markets were closed. LOL Even funnier is that for more than the first half of the day and volume-weighted, the "whopping ADS 5800 shares traded at ~flat for Monday in HK... it weas the last copuple thousand shares of dippy painting that took them down.

    Beyond the fundamental and quant reasons the stock remains undervalued, the chart is now VERY constructive for longs. Down days over the last few weeks have been few and light trade weighted volume, the stock is back above the 40w ema and the 50d ema is now turning up.

  • Reply to

    AAL vs DAL

    by alicei99 Jul 6, 2014 11:59 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 6, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    Those are ridiculously uninofrmed and errant perspectives. DAL is by far the superior mgmt, balance sheet, ebitda and capital distribution story now... American is better only as to relative earnings multiple against near term eps growth.

    We own both and ALK too.

  • Reply to

    RIP TO NEW HIGHS COMING RIGHT UP NOW

    by squeezetracker Jul 3, 2014 8:03 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 6, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    LOL at the morons suggesting this is a short. DEad dead dead... ZQK was a great short at $8... this is one of the key stocks to own 2H14.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 6, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    DAL easily the best balance sheet, execution, international routes and management, and the biggest ebitda and share buyback program on top of all of that... if you only own one airlines, this is it. But AAL and ALK are both great stocks for the run coming. We own all three, but more DAL than the other two combined x 3.

  • See my comments on DAL's news from last week... AAL in the same great position except DAL has better routes, mgmt and balance sheet -- but AAL's relative valuation makes up for that. They will both mash it into EOY.

    The HOTELS are also mashing! From IBD:

    The record-high stock market and rebounding home values have made consumers feel more confident and comfortable about taking vacations, said Arthur Adler, Americas CEO and managing director of JLL's hospitality group. On the business side, the modest economic recovery coupled with slow job growth has necessitated more travel for workers, he added.
    More recently, group travelers have begun to book rooms with increasing frequency, which should give the industry a further boost, say Adler and Scott Smith, senior vice president in the Atlanta office of PKF Consulting USA, an advisory and real estate firm specializing in the hospitality industry.
    Fundamental Rebound
    The important group-bookings segment, which includes state organizations, business meeting groups and worker incentive travel programs, pulled back not only because of the slow recovery, but also as result of the negative reactions to the American International Group's (NYSE:AIG) widely publicized retreat at a swanky resort soon after receiving bailout funds, Smith said.
    Only now is the group travel segment beginning to book rooms on par with its activity before the recession, which should give the industry a further boost, he adds.
    "I've been doing this for 25 years and have never seen the kind of economics that are driving hotel revenues right now," said Smith, referring to the steady rise in fundamentals and lagging construction of new rooms. "We think we're in a real sweet spot."
    Investors think so, too. The R.W. Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, which tracks the 15 largest publicly traded hotel companies, is up 11% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 by about five percentage points.
    Three of the six largest companies by market cap in IBD's Leisure-Lodgi

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 4, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    just clicked to see if this moron replied on other posts of quality. LOL... Forest is one idiot and a half and pos. LOL

    Hope he is still short his 3 shares here though... stock is up $40 or so since the moron tried to dis me and we plain love having deutcheee bags opposite our thinking and trades.

  • Reply to

    CHART FUN: PCLN READY TO RIP (AGAIN)

    by squeezetracker Jun 28, 2014 12:39 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 4, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    Nothing is up like our trades here you F putz... anyone paying attn to us has likely been long since Dec 2012 at $595. This stock has more than doubled since, and no, you pos, the market has not done that.

    Moreover, anyone who put on a trading sleeve and or re-established the core at $950 is similarly kicking butt right along with us, as is everyone who piled into TRIP on the recent low with us (we sold that out two weeks ago to add to EXPE, on which we recently blew out the core we owned at $58 from a year ago if you go stalk our posts LOL)

    Here we traded a sleeve of PCLN at $1120 as noted right here, which sleeve we blew out of at $1260 two weeks ago before reloading half at $1205 on the OPEN dip and more at $1191 as we noted then.

    Did I mention FY for trying to dis me with your stupidity? Yeah, FY.

  • Have a read through Moody's positive ratings action yesterday. It is no coincidence that this action happened the same day as the other news yesterday. DAL mgmt did a good job updated the agenmcies and timing wise ... So despite the MASSIVE buyback underway, cash dividends ramping to come, the agency understands that DAL's revenue, ebitda and eps are all surging and that debt levels will continue to moderate over time.

    Golly, they love DAL mgmt, execution, balance sheet strength and improving operating leverage/profitability? Who'da thunk that? LOL

    See y'all at out PT of $50 for 2014 rather soon from here. LOL

  • Reply to

    World Cup effect

    by grftt Jul 2, 2014 9:12 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 3, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    grftt,

    Thanks for the article.

    The interesting thing to us is that Tam's own noise on corruption and UnionPay terminals and attempts to appease Macau shop owners and other political interests and not clarifying any of that or Vias noise from March through June was certainly part and parcel of the confusion and concern aserved up by the media, press and politicans there and heaped upon tour operators, patrons and would be travelers to Macau last month, and the noted lack of travel throughout China during the last week of June on Tianamen Square remembrances by Chinese citizens in their homes all had a deleterious effect on Macau GGR as well. As noted on another thread, last week Tam and his henchmen got a wakeup call from Vegas GGR for June; they need to make conciliatory remarks such as those above or see some of Macau's "private jet VIP crowd" fly to Vegas more often as they did last month to LVS and WYNN's properties on the strip.

    Then we have the critical dynamic most sellsiders do not understand: Reported GGR is a shifting sands story as former VIP players becomet direct credit premium mass "stay and play" patrons of the elite venues (notably MPEL and LVS facilities on Cotai). We'll see a good preview of that with LVS' report in 20 days, and MPEL showing the rest how it is WAY ahead of the curve when they report 2Q results after that.

    The bs noise of 13 reasons "the sky is falling" on Macau is shot in the head... it won;t be long before EVERYONE managing money wants to have an allocation back to the best names to ride for the next couple of years as GDP growth flatlines across many continents and the power of the Macau , Manila and Japan IR and GR development story reassert themselves on valuation . MPEL is the front of that pack.

  • While at first blush PCLN might be expected to follow the airlines down yesterday, DAL's rasm was UP 6% for the quarter ahead of the guidance, and although June was softened by slowed business travel to Latin America because of the World Cup restivities and tourism snarl, DAL made it plain that was a temporary WC affair that will end with the World Cup drawing to a close soon (only 8 teams left now). Knowledgeable reading also coughs up the following that should have caused PCLN (and EXPE) to move higher.

    First, domestic business is booming without price/capacity pressures.

    Second, DAL noted there is some increased pricing competitiveness from int'l carriers (Luftansa and the big middle eastern carriers). This should prove beneficial to travel volumes if past is prologue, particularly in the business travel segment (think about the impact on hotels and rental cars).

    Third, planes are flying packed with record loads, rasm, and capacity ramping. ALL of that spoeaks to increased volumes for the OTAs, notably PCLN and EXPE, for the June Q and forward. Guidance and estimates are too low and will drive another beat and raise cycle for PCLN when they report in a couple weeks.

    "Get your motors running"

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