great article drjack... a nice contrast to the weak sauce analysts issuing "research reports" latewly on all of the nonsense reasons the "sky is falling" on china and macau business. LOL
great posts grftt...
when you consider the incidence and desperation of the new aliases bashing here on Asian time, going so goofy as to reference the HK shares following the U.S. shares last Friday and that somehow the equivalent of 33k ADS shares in total for the day, including a push down down on the last couple of peanut trades somehow indicates the sky is falling, and a repeat of all of the other dismissed nonsense... you know, they might "scare" another couple retail holders into selling 25 shares apiece...
unreal to think anyone would pay this guy(s) for such inanity.
it is terrific that the ignore box seems unlimited, seemingly the only thing yahoo does well. LOL
Thanks for the comments... Love this part: "The Tiananmen Square anniversary was the lone source of slump the last week of May IMHO." Interesting drill down into our speculation on this topic.
Just think... with your update on this topic , now we can expect several analysts to issue a follow up first call piece to say Tianamen Square remembrances and somberness caused the softness in overall tourism and traffic flow to Macau during the last week in May. Likely they will ewait to see early returns on June GGR... but do you suppose they will try to do a bit more work on mass play? LOL
When everyone figures it out, MPEL will be back above the 10W ema, en route to new highs before long and into the manila opening.
And great to see them select Hyatt as door number 3 for Manila... a nice choice. All future business meetings and travelers will now have a choice play to stay, meet and dine... and game a bit at COD Manila on their free time while there.
Although the strong hands (beyond Packer and Ho's 68% that id) do understand the mass piece, the press does not, most of the sellside analysts do not, and NFW do the morons daytrading this 5 x per day understand what you just summarized.
Further, absent quality input from those sources, and the dimwits on this board and shorting the stock give witness to, there is plenty here for the pantswetters and hand wringers to fret about... the previously inexplicable dropoff over the last week of May was spooky for many in that regard, certainly all of the people focused on weekly GGR as a relevant metric. Remember that most of the companies are no where close to MPEL in developing premium mass play (direct and no commission high rollers with private jet service in to Macau and or helicopter service in from Hong Kong) and emphasizing mass and entertainment... that is why MPEL COD did 80% ytd in mass while WYNN and MGM are running more like 2/3s VIP -- less than they did last year, but almost the inverse of COD. The upshot of that on first blush is that those two co's should be trading off a bit if VIP was really going to trend flatline from here on out, especially since some choice tours will be booking into manila later this year for something new. The next derivative is that apart from MPEL, a flatline in VIP means that WYNN and MGM are likely picking up some of the less important junket crumbs sloughed off by MPEL, so maybe their VIP is going to continue to represent enough growth to hit expectations even as they try to emphasize mass play.
grftt's extension of my comments on Tianamen Sq quelling effects during the somber 25th anniversary of were of note as well.. things will likely be back to normal through June in terms of visitation as mass continues to more than offset any VIP easing.
We're glad to add while the gifting continues.
Enjoyed your additional color on Tianamen Square on the other thread grftt... the sector and MPEL dislocation has limited days remaining...
Recent posts demonstrate that several posters here understand that GGR is not the key metric these days. The valuation will follow as the street figures it out and the daytrader and hedge fund sleeve shorts meet the logical end coming.
Mass GR, with its attendant lack of commissions and far better win rates and ancillary benefits to occupancy/F&B/shows is running 75% and growing in MPEL's properties, and mass GR on Macau is growing call it 35% for the Q (last week of May aside), while operating expenses are contained at say 10% ramp (gearing up for Manila opening in a few months and then MSC next year), so even if MPEL's RCT matters less and less over time and MPEL will still outperform the group on operating leverage (adj ebitda ramping).
The ADS div is $.1293/share, "on or about June 6th." It did not hit our Morgan account on Friday... Monday seems likely.
From the 6k
"Declaration and Payment of Quarterly Dividend
Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that on 8 May 2014, the Board considered and approved the declaration and payment of a quarterly dividend of US$0.0431 per ordinary share of the Company for the first quarter of 2014 (the “Quarterly Dividend”).
The Quarterly Dividend will be paid on or about 6 June 2014 to the shareholders of the Company whose names appear on the register of members of the Company (the “Shareholders”) at the close of business on 26 May 2014, being the record date for determination of entitlements to the Quarterly Dividend."
blaqnight just can't help himself...
Those with some intellect and who respectfully disagree with us create on any aspect of life create interesting conversation learning opportunities. His comments never qualify on either score.
When this idiot and the other awipes here try to dis others with stupidity and make it personal? That calls for the occasional stomp or just simple shorthand "FY" and pointing out the inanity of his continual blithering bs. You may notice that our dialogue with about 5-6 quality posters here is often civil disagreement or point counterpoint -- it is called conversation and debate.
He does qualify as board comedian with no clue about this company though. Now he suggests we all brace ourselves for a big drop. GFL on that from down here. Last week he said he was shorting was down below $32 as it ripped to $34.50 the next two days. Here's some fun rhetoric for the esoteric group here, but since he is obviously not any kind professional save for perhaps being paid for diversionary nonsense, I wonder how many accounts are he is using to do the purported box shorting, and (as if you have any idea or are doing that) how do you report it for tax purposes? LOL
Again, FY for thinking you are entitled to tell me what to do.
directed at blacqtart's below
As for "following me blindly", you must assume everyone is as stupid as you continually demonstrate yourself to be. Anyone who has paid attention to our entry levels ($12, 20 and latest sleeve now blended to less than $34) and suggestion that the above $43 this year was frothy momo chasing at the time and merited hedging or taking off the trading chunk as we did) is doing just fine and has no loss. those who purchased higher and did not hedge this are in the same bucket as the group and many other high beta/growth stories this year, pending a sustained turnaround for those stocks that will lead the charge higher and drive yr end incentive returns. Anyone short in a fund here will lose capital, beginning any day now. But then, some 500 or so registered funds are fail this year anyway -- just as well it be your bosses boss.
Given that, and the reality that this stock is controlled 68% by Packer's Crown and Ho's Melco, conbined with the other 25% controlled by professional mm means that only 5% or so of the stock is owned by individual shareholders. Peanuts ya morn... peanuts. Of those, the only people losing money are those who bought higher and are selling out down here below $35... we expect those who sell out on this shakeout, likely to end soon and from which we believe the bottom is already in (again, the tail risk is likely $28 on the low end and above $60 this year on the high end) will likely soon have years to regret bailing out at the bottom.
Beyond that, our only "advice" has been to avoid margin and weekly options in the market chop. We will continue to share our investment themes (long, short or hedges) on bigger cap stocks whenever we feel like, and it is not to influence trivial retail holdings as you morons think is worthwhile here (we'd be surprised if retail vol gets to 1% of daily tape). Anyone playing along is well outperforming -- because we are.
LOL...As i said:
"Again, in our 25+ yr experience managing money, quant and fundamentals almost always overcome short term trading dislocations based on bs and otherwise errant valuation/analysis."
Gee, d'ya think maybe one day soon this stock will begin responding to the real story here, not what dufus daytraders, moronic pm paying bashers, or lame media outlets and weak sauce "analysts" who likely have have never played nor could explain how to play baccarat have to say about last week's GGR or June's GGR, or UnionPay credit card or debit card withdrawals, or corruption, or smoking on the mass floors, or whether Macau will let approved IR's have table allocations, or the "horror" of china gdp slowing to only 7.4%. LOL
We are not alone enjoying that all of this bs has given us a great chance to go large the shares on the cheap again... about $5 a share cheaper than we thought possible as the stock doubled-topped and pulled back from the froth early this year as noted then. Consider that ebitda/share has more than doubled since the stock was last at $20/share... and we are on the lurch toward another double of ebitda double f24m.
make that 4.2m shares today as the vol spike at right after my post reflects some buyside algo s at work. LOL
the kids with their new 4 yr degrees and now through an internship and two weeks of training and just given $75k of capital would be all over shorting this into the options expiry at $32.50 today. They all need to cover too. LOL
Those with an actual understanding of the markets, this sector, macau and manila, and this company, and also having a bit of capital to put to work? Yeah... those would the guys who are on the buy side of $3.9m shares today.
We are adding right here at $32.50+/- 3 cents... love it.
But what a great day for the 68% owners (packer and Ho) to be taking in shares... which they may be doing since they have 99% approval of the authorization they sought last month.
Great comments... one to share back.
The overall health and outlook for continued vibrant growth in Macau makes the companies with meaningful operations there one of the finest investment growth opportunities in the world.
With several analysts and the companies advising the street of various one off causes for the one wekk softness, it is a quacking duck. Your last sentence is precisely correct and underscores the opportunity down here -- sort of like TPX at $37 last fall (with the brilliant daytraders and other shorts suggesting $20 was coming right up). That is trading up some 50%+ now.
Again, in our 25+ yr experience managing money, quant and fundamentals almost always overcome short term trading dislocations based on bs and otherwise errant valuation/analysis.
p.s. Someone should bump drjack's post to the top every time of of the latest round of board putz posters dishes up his stupidity here. LOL
After running to a breathless double in recent months, because the drought is now done in so america on solid rains, coffee has eased back from 220 to 170... great news for all the companies sourcing coffee 2H and next year.
Now all we need to love the story is a quick pullback to $90 (again).
Sounds like Shel understands the issue. Ho made similar comments on the last call.
UnionPay credit card and debit card volumes are running in excess of $1 TRILLION (USD) annually these days, so it is apparent their proliferation has been robust.
China's growing economic significance worldwide means evermore wealthy and middle class citizens will use both UnionPay credit and debit flexibility to meet their financing/transaction needs both at home and abroad.
Lots of noise in May incl the start with Golden Week timing (largely mass) which likely has mix as well as VIP for the first week or more... and then comes in the swirl of one offs, and, while people are tossing out one offs, just maybe some days of family time/reflection on the 25th anniversary of Tianamen Sq seriousness had a quelling effect as China censured out every Western media outlet/broadcast of those events... that could easily have had a chilling effect on almost everything in china for the last several days+.
Your last paragraph is quality thinking... and we'll see if the Nomura jokers are as far wrong as usual with their latest "research" this morning. LOL
thanks... it is very early in the story. The ebitda run rate will be more than double present levels once Tower 5 is up and running... the stock will tend to follow quant/fundamental valuation over that longer run.
thanks guys, I certainly appreciate your quality comments and tend to have all of these morons on ignore. this new dufus today is so stupid it is ridiculous. As you can see on the thread idiotpumper wrote today trying to dis me on KKD, the facts are disconcerting for these morons. Then you can see that he is so stupid he replies back on another one of his aliases (fartsforever) without even realizing how stupid that is and he also makes reference to his car salesmen bs he has used on at least 4 other aliases here.
Funnier still on MPEL, as pointed out prior, is that the moron pm paying these dufuses actually think it is worth trying to shake out retail holders here... I say that (again) because with somewhere between 1.5-2.5m share trading on a normal day here, retail holders do not matter, esp given that Crown and Melco along with institutional holders control some 95% of shares and Packer and Ho's 68% ownership is not for sale. LOL
Longs here, as everywhere else morons operating like this putz did here, should take great comfort in knowing the idiot pm short this stock and paying these morons to post such inanity try to target anyone who is sharing information of quality and contrary to their positions. In this regard drjackcar and I and a few others here the dolts try to dis might be proud... but I am not posting here to "prove" anything or even as a good samaritan. Rather, both my partner and i post on some sights where we have serious longs (here) or shorts (e.g., ZQK, formerly LULU, TSLA, GOGO, MGM -at $85, etc) from time to time as one of many venues to share perspectives with OUR target audiences (sellside analysts, weak journalists/editors, exec teams, other pm and their paid hypsters/bashers posting dog S all day long without any value -- long or short thesis, and others).
Again, I tend to put them on ignore and not see them, but when they use a new alias and I feel like it, I will point out the stupidity for anyone new wondering the story.
See Bloomberg article for that fun read if you are long PCLN. Also see the Fox video with ceo Huston from a few minutes ago.
shorts are hosed on this (again).
CEO Huston: We are the most efficient and highest margin player in the business."
Good to see him out shouting down the FBR bs from yesterday. LOL
See y'all at new highs soon as the June and Sep Q will be great based on what he is winking along with the confirming data sets from the airlines, car rental companies and the key hotels.
"pleasing the customer is driving our growth... we are very positive and optimistic.
Europeans love to travel and EU recovering is a real positive, but we are a global brand now"