fwiw, incentive hedging revisited...
We are on our biggest long ever here, but the frothy tape is inconsistent with quality accumulation over the last few days in a down market. The group is also showing some topping action again, and this stock looks a lot like panicky short covering to us (again)... volume there today so we hedged out half (again) just above $37.25.
Every comment you have made here reflects comprhensive lack of understanding of the markets, the company and basic technical analysis. You bs chart service is a donkey suk too.
Cover your 50 shares already before you have to move out of your trailer rental and back in with your momma across the trailer park. LOL
I would not kill anyone, let alone a moron with the mind of an 8 year old holding out useless comments as if TPX is in deep trouble. LOL Yours are stupid comments, just perfectly ironic for calling me an idiot and reflecting the thoughts of a mindless dufus short from $36.
Laurence (not his dad Stanley) was pretty clear that he thinks japan will be a victory for the well connected, but getting resorts built and running is at least 5 years away, and hard to think anyone is discounting that... as said prior here, the street isn't even discounting that the increase in tables andmachines in Manila is as if MPEL will have two resorts coming on line there next year.
But at $37, back to the all time high, the stock is now breathing a little bit hard as is LVS given the uncertainties associated with Spain... we are on our biggest allocation and ready to put some box hedge back on into some likely chop before EOY.
As for WYNN? Love Steve and we've been on that several times in recent years, but his stated intent to develop resorts in rust belt cities in the U.S. harkens back to yesteryear ideas as we see it... we like the idea of rapid growth arenas such as the known in Asian venues
As Hertz ads would say, "Not exactly"...
The HK shares trade in HK$, which currency is significantly less value per "$" than USD (aa with all currencies, that differential changes daily, but one US$ is worth roughly $2.60 HK$).
The HK exchange shares, as noted a few times here, tend to trade in call it generally irrelevant volume vs the ADR listed here in the US, closed at $94.50 today, up that $2.20 you referenced, but that was only 2.28% in HK$.
Here in the US, the ADR closed at $36.44 yesterday, up 1.93% or $.69. One doesn't need a currency converter to get to the math that if the U.S. shares trade up $36.57 (a "whopping" $.13), they will be pari passu with the HD exchange close.
Again, the correlation is tight between the ADR and the HK shares over time, but the HK shares are definitely not driving the valuation of the ADR over time... that is all about franchise power, management execution, and growth of ebitda/share.
Our PT remains $40 near term (our EOY 2013 PT was $30 when the stock was $12 a year ago, raised to $35 when the stock hit $25 on better than even we expected performance, and again to $40 as the stock ripped past $30 several weeks ago, but given the lockdowns (sell outs or box short hedges now) for 2013 incentive calcs in place now, the stock may drift sideways until the Dec results are reported. If not clear, we think $40 is still possible by EOY, but not "likely" until next month.
The bottom is in here... only thing left is upside into the real guidance update, pricing increase, and incremental store openings on top of the sandbagged guidance.
Nice to see the institutional buying today resulted in one of Woody Allen's socks stuffed full of horse dung being shoved down the moronic short bashers' throats here today.
Shorts are roadkill as my partner loves to quip.
Looks like a few hedge funds decided to get long with us here. How are those unhedged short trades from yesterday working out for the chumps here? LOL
wasting your time reading that bs... Motley Morons and the like are all wasted ink.
We wrote all you need to know about the playbook here yesterday.
If you know much about the key holders here, they aren't looking to the sell side, GS or anyone else, for analysis or advice, and if you read most of what passes for "analysis", it tends reads a lot like a summary of investment conference presentation slides. It takes more work than superficial power point gleening to develop ebitda modeling and growth curve shifts (e.g., such as what is coming up here with Manila), and t there is something to the guys looking like players in the resorts but actually hired consultants studying machine play, limits and play depth... Most of the pm sponsorship over the last two years is still here, staying in with offset shorts to protect the 2013 roic incentive comp driven by the run above $35 seen of late.
We've shared much of our trade in and around the core position here, and we know many have positioned similarly (except we pulled the hedge off here)... 2014 will be great, and no one managing serious capital allocated here gives a flyin Fick what GS publishes about the company.
agree with your points... i usually do not read any of the MF bs as it is almost never worth reading, and here I did based on the headline that MPEL is overvalued on a relative basis. That assertion is plain stupid and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the sector, Macau and MPEL's ongoing and very solid outperformance. MPEL desrves a rich premium multiple and despite the the outperformance, does yet even close to reflect what is happening in the coming quarters. All the better for us; this has enabled us to get to our largest ever allocation on the cheap.
We're long a bunch of DNKN largely on the menu expansion, growing margins, coffee victories AND ONLY THEN the geographical expansion west.
As for DNKN donuts, they suk compared to Krispy Kreme delights... and KKD is going to be just fine after all the retail selling is done and moronic, unhedged shorts finish impaling themselves. last Q this process took 5 days before the turnaround... this quarter will be quicker as people figure out that everything discounted about forward guidance (ss comps, revenue and new store openings) is VERY sandbagged vs what they will rollout.
Unhedged shorts are effd, just like we said in march about HLF at $38, and GMCR at $18 last year end. But who gives a flying F what morons do with their money... the smart folks are getting long here -- VERY long while the morons are selling/shorting.
You calling me dim bulb is F hilarious.
FY moron. See you up 20% before Christmas... you'll be on the f porch alright, with the puppies standing on newspaper #$%$ yourself. LOL
p.s. funny to see this inhummera and all his twerk partners back on the board today... you would think the most gumptarded of the twerk circle of #$%$ trading pals would have torched the aliases they have been so dead wrong on and come up with new ones to write their ignorance essays. LOL
We were surprised to see this join the chop early and then all afternoon, but glad to take advantage of it.
CNBC and Bloomberg commentary is consistently awful, as is every other talking head who knows next to nada about the markets. Rates going up with strengthen the dollar, and the "fear" of a 3% 10YT is so nuts... yields backing up is going to strengthen the USD and oil runs up $2? These inconguities are ripe picking for those who paying attention.
As for MPEL, a few recent "research" pieces and Motley Moron articles suggest MPEL is expensive based on simpleton trailing metrics. Would someone please write to their research directors and "service" editors or comments sections to advise other readers that more than one person understands that MPEL shares are discounting only a fraction of the huge ramp coming on ebitda as COD Manila and then henquin and Studio city come on line? As for more thinking on relative valuation, consider that LVS has 4 new properties opened on the strip just now coming up to fully operational, and while that has been a beautiful thing for Cotai market size gains and they have made some (we think surprisingly small) progress on share, MPEL continues to do better than hold share without any incremental footprint.
And here comes the footprint! Based on the tape today, we are not alone buying up evermore of the shares people will sell out or short for us. LOL
is this fun or what? Time for victory laps for Uncle Carl.
Where are the #$%$ twerk circle trading club morons... I only see inhummia and texcrement?
Back to top of IBD (LOL) and every other chart trading service... and all the way up to where uncle Carl called it "seriously undervalued." And we don't even have the 8k with the recertified back year financials on file yet!
We know inhummia is not good at thinking clearly. He's short at $67.30 last check and also said he couldn't wait to see us cover at $35 -- LOL -- and that after Ackman's brilliant (I mean stupid) restructuring with puts that are OTM unless the stock drops to below $32 or so, and that "it is impossible to squeeze the stock" [sic LOL].
His latest montra chanting is that icahn is going to be a seller at the first opportunityas the price moves above the lockout floor... LOL inhumnia apparently didn't get the memo Icahn published about how HLF is the "kind of story we like to own for 10-15 years."
There he is, with all of his arrogance on blazing display... with wet pants after today's breakout. LOL
For those keeping score, blew out the latest sleeve of trading shares with a 17% gain... hey, up another $14 or so to our PT for this month and we may even pull the plug on the unhedged core position.