and just clicked through to the China page on bloomberg to find many a few other great articles re regional stimulus to accelerate progress in china. As a few here have been suggesting since March, the sky is not falling quite yet on China or Macau or its elite wealthy gamers playing direct with the premier houses (so called premium mass players and VIP).
Great post in further refutation of bs noise from the media and dippy analysts as well as the towel tossing handwringers here who now espouse it will takes a long time for the stock to recover. Yeah, about a Los Angeles minute once things get to RIPPING soon. LOL.
Right on the pivot as I write...ready to break out hard to the upside oin good news next week... and the weekly chart is also just finishing up a beautiful "W" base pending some big boy volume to the upside once the Q update/refreshed guidance is out there next week.
Just our cup of tea so to speak. LOL
Teravana, 700 new stores from last year layered over with 700+ more this year, China cranking, new food and afternoon initiatives, and coffee futures now down from $240 to $160 again.
Time to be VERY LONG for us...
Up to 90 mph wind is a big yawn except for surfing... and COD Manila doesn't open for another 3 months.
this reminds us of almost exactly the same vibe on soft GGR 53 weeks ago when MPEL was printing below $22...
Just then we thought it was time go add heavy too... LOL Reading the last pos "update" pre-earnings call from Cam mcNight, ummm yes, we know VIP is softer than some thought, and yes, that is likely to press the weak sauce analyst estimates on WYNN and MGM (even though they have been reduced a few pennies for CY14 LOL).
For MPEL and LVS though? Mass (incl direct credit premium mass) is up call it 35% for the Q yoy, and that is likely to be AT LEAST 80% of MPEL's book for the second Q and MPEL is likely to have done better than the Macau group garnering mass+ premium mass (i.e., growing this chunk more than the overall 35%)... and even if their residual 20% (that would be the VIP portion) is down 25%... oh wait, I've already shared that logic. LOL
LVS reports tomorrow guys... the bs parade is about to take a big header from the top of the Venetian, and LVS' report, even if they do a poor job making fun of the stupidity that has driven dog s group sentiment, is likely to make it clear it's time for everyone to get back in the pool where the water is fine, just fine.
Nice little daytrader drop lets us back on the LVS trade... just 5k at $74.85 for "toast" and anyone else keeping track. LOL
Are you seeking abuse here now? Seems your new emphasis is trying to dis me? LOL
for those keeping score, we just blew out the little LVS trade... up .41 on 6k shares (too early on the way up) will restock the cognac shelf. LOL
Now, if only the sleeve daytraders will take it back down below $75 one more time, we'll reload it for the earnings call bump tomorrow.
then go read on the mpel board how stupid (for MPEL that is) the myopic focus on GGR is ve MPEL's business plan... Steve is figuring it out though... and WYNN will be just fine over time... but LVS, second pick at present levels, should outperform WYNN near term, and certainly MPEL should.
We are currently on our largest allocation ever...
As an aside, you can see this chump is a glotton for abuse. Here he tries to dis me, one of WYNN's biggest supporters in the history of this board, when the board is a mound of S filled with idiots tooling on this putz? He deserves Sybil and all the rest. LOL
A final thought until WYNN reports bearing the brunt of the VIP slowdown without a commensurate premium mass/direct credit book (yet), the F suggests I am trying to get people to "take my word"... Anyone taking anyone's word for anything in these forums is a moron. The record of our allocations, adj ebitda analysis and PTs speaks for itself (posted as we went along and did the chunks/trades, not afterward you'll notice), but validate anything said anywhere by anyone for yourself.
Those who listened to us more than doubled their money on MPEL and did it with timely offset hedges; andalso made profitable turns on LVS and WYNN on EVERY trade.
I see below the pedantic f head that called me 5th grade names (LOL) on mpel and then said it was his largest position is trying to dis me again. LOL
Click on messages and read my last ten or so posts if you want a brief history... but we have been long a large core (hedged at times and others not) on round 3 since October 2013 at just below $13. We added a bunch at $22+/- during the first week in July 2013 (after it pulled back from $26 quickly for a couple of weeks), when we said it would likely get to at least $30 if not $35. Go to the MPEL board and click in $21.80 to read about it for yourself if you are as dopey as this yourdufusintheworld putz.
We've also traded numerous sleeves in and out on MPEL, including the big slug at $34 when it pulled back from $37 late 2013. We said that would likely rip toward $40 by EOY (it got above $39 and then ripped further to a double top above $45. Yeah, go back this dolt's 6 months where we said, with the stock at $43+, there was a good chance the stock would break down below the $37 50d ema. THAT call was BEFORE the market took call it ALL growth/beta names down 20% or so, including this sector (WYNN from $250 to below $190), and then the onslaught of the noise parade as all the clueless journalists and sellsiders in this sector started their pantswetting sessions over bs that matters not to MPELs story.
Those reading our posts right here for the last few years also know we think Steve Wynn and team are VERY good, almost as good as lawrence Ho who runs MPEL. But even Stecve has been tipping his hat to lawrence as "a couple years ahead of us" [on premium mass]. Ya, we also continue to flip trade WYNN in the portfolio. easy pickings -- read our posts here.
From here fwd? MPEL is BY FAR the cheapest in group on cash flow metrics, has the biggest footprint expanison f24m (COD manila and MSC ph 1&2 and Tower 5 at Cotai COD, is the best managed, adj ebitda growth, etc. MPEL is THE stock to own f18m. PT $50+
just doubled the LVS trade w ave now 75.06... still small, but should be a fun Wednesday report as LVS is assuredly getting its shares of the June Qs mass GR, even if their share (incl VIP) of Macau's overall GGR looks to be only decent yoy.
2H14 should be a fun party, just as seen in last year's impressive runup into EOY.
thanks ed... yes, i meant 2013... i believe you were around during 4Q12 when we called MPEL a screaming buy below $13 since theyt had resolved the fear of a big secondary to fund out Manila then.
And to be clear, we called for a PT of $25 at the start of 2013. That was raised to $30 when it pulled back to $21 (from just above $25) in early July 2013... Shortly thereafter we suggested the stock could rip to $35 into EOY and as it got to $37 and then pulled back to ~$34, we said we expected it may well blow back to $40 by eoy (2013) as the momo guys chase and pm pull of hedge offsets into EOY. That all played out just as called... and we'll suggest $39+ change as of 12/31/13 was, as a practical matter, close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades to our $40 PT on the upside. LOL
You likely recall we were very concerned about frothy trading as it ripped toward $45, selling out our then trading sleeve and hedging the core as we thought a trip back to the 50d ema (~$37+) was looming... then that happened before the double top just above $45.
We were very solid on all of that. what we missed in March was the thumping slammed on call it all growth stocks back to the 50d or even 40week levels, and below that on many names, notably MPEL as the bs noise purveyors threw S at the fan. All of that gave us the most delightful adds to core we can imagine here -- a pantload and another pantload below $35 as shared as we put it on... including the tentative and then firmly called retest bottom (see "bottom is in" post here).
As noted today, our PT is still $50+ no later than when the Dec Q report is filed (early Feb).
We've added a few more shares here since, but now have a small sleeve on for LVS into Wednesday... Shel must be #$%$ at all the bs noise and be desirous of doing some thumping this week...
I meant to post my thoughts on Dave Winter's interview in Barron's last week on this board, but errantly posted it on the WYNN board instead. I hope they enjoy my view. LOL
Anyone who has been reading our perspectives for long knows we think MPEL is BY FAR the horse to ride this year and next, followed by LVS and only then WYNN. That said, we think Steve is the second best manager in the business (after Lawrence Ho) and continue to enjoy flip trading WYNN as an ATM machine as longtimers know.
We also put on a small trade of LVS this morning going into the CC Wednesday... Shel and Mike were seen working at Woody Allen's horse manure socks factory over the weekend. They have a lot of throats to stuff this week, starting with Shuli ren, IBD and Zacks writers, and the bevy of weak sauce sell side analysts writing bs noise since March ended.
As I alluded to on the other thread, Moody raisning its outlook to positive on MPEL is a telegraph that the June Q and 2H outlook is a lot better than the naysayers think is happening. LOL
Just got around to reading the Barron's article (written by Sarah Max, a real journalist -- not our darling "horse manure sock" bs slinger Shuli Ren blog writer for Barron's) from last week interviewing Dave Winter (Wintergreen fund) on why he likes Macau gaming and has a big allocation to WYNN. Seems he thinks WYNN is reasonably valued on today's [ebitda] metrics, but that the new Cotai Palace now under construction will come close to doubling [ebitda] and the valuation [when it comes on line sometime in 2016].
Winter is a buy and hold, relative value guy with a small staff, but someone ought to tell him that MPEL has a dramatically better/bigger footprint in Macau, is about to bring the relatively open field running (i.e., competition free) COD manila online for this year's Golden Week in October, followed by opening MSC next year and then Tower 5 at COD Cotai about the time Steve opens his only cotai property (and that will be his second and final property on Macau... yep, right about the time MPEL gets going on the buildout of the "expansion phase" of Studio city -- which based on the anticpated budget, will be huge vs the initial phase opening next year.
Yeah, Dave Winter and his minions ought to learn more about MPEL alright -- it is growing FAR faster than WYNN can even think about... and it has none of the U.S. market baggage.
We'll be interested to read the full release more when it hits the wire today, but for those who do not understand the ratings committee actions, the group responsible for a sector and individual company ratings would meet with mgmt and review submitted materials prior to changing such aspects of their prior ratings. Therefore, it is highly likely this action is being taken after seeing confidential updates on the June Q ebitda and adj ebitda, and in contemplation of the debt financing arrangements for MSC and Tower 5.
Excellent news for longs...
Fun for us to read all the towel tossing by longs on this board... the shorts must be beaming. Given LVS is releasing Wednesday, a full week ahead of lat year's scheduling, we think it is likely Shel wants to stuff some socks full of horse manure down the throats of all the bs noise makers... Open wide Shuli, IBD, Zacks and all you weak sauce sellsiders... a big juicy sock is being served up within 48 hours just for you. ROFLOL
Meanwhile, anyone not wetting their pants ought to pull a chart of what happened to the stock between July 1 2012 and Dec 31, 2012 -- the stock RIPPED from $21 to $40. Then it double topped above $45 before all of the bs noise for the reset drop where the bottom was put in at just below $30 for a few shares. Those with weak continence should be aware this should move hard, perhaps even violently, to the upside from here... the reversal launch sequence is underway. LOL
See my comments on LVS Q/buybacks this morning, but I agree it will be great to hear from LVS... they will be out to stomp on naysayers, dip S media and weak sauce aalaysts' perspectives on the sky falling in on Macau.
Those who know Shel's story can also grin knowing they are coming a full week ahead of last year's June Q report date. We are expecting great news from them, likely to mash all of the bs noise into the pavement with thumping kicks in the head...
I can hardly wait to hear Shel and mike all but snort listening to Robin ask dumb S questions about the weak hold purportedly suffered by ALL operators in June... yeah right... for those who have taken an introductory statistics class, that is about as likely as ALL Chinese familes having precisely 1.1 children. LOL