When i am in the office, I do spend much of the day reading SEC files and reviewing our team's models and reading published research. I even share much of it in excerpt form when I think the emphasis is worth my time for the guys I am sharing perspective with here (it ain't you janetoastdrjackoffmatrixputz). That is why I know much that you have no clue about, be it capex, ROIC, adj ebitda metrics and what not). Several here -- even you -- have seen some of our modeling and I've even truly wasted my time helping you understand errors in Sterne Agee's work and reports (e.g., Manila) as now borne out on public commentary by Lawrence Ho. And it is a pure delight that ideas you have tried to suggest we were hosed on were actually complete victories (TRIP, PCLN, EXPE, HTZ etc) Suk on that you miserable chump.
Talk about spending all day on message boards -- you do precisely that here and on IKGH and SUNE that as you have revealed. You are a head case drjackcar,toast,janetate, dthe98, brinerbriner,jugusheadus and a dozen more you ironic little "ad hominem" dope.
As for all those yous, I have pointed out your "slips" revealing your machinations here, and so has "puthimon" on the IKGH board. So you have amply demonstrated you are one and the same dbag... play pals with one and aholes with others while you carry on conversations with yourself here and on IKGH while going ape trying to convince me and everyone else to chase your dippy IKGH and SUNE while you advocate shorting this as janetate and the rest while feigning long as toast. Do you think all here are
Thanks for the entertainment here though. Keep on sweating those moronic short-dated calls you idiots write, and do stay short if you have any capital left to lose. Wait, you must have someone paying you to do this nonsense -- it is clear you are on the wrong side of most of your "trading" ideas, if you actually trade any of them. Now get back to those incomplete leaps with your leapfrog friends Sybil. LOL
The report covers recent topics that have been distorted or just plain errantly handled by the media and lesser analyst teams. They get it right on the group vs individual visitation topic and point out recent signals of a change in attitude by the Macau govt (see my post on protecting Mcaunese peoples' "livelihoods" from earlier today):
"... government now does not wish to reduce the number of Mainland visitors coming to Macau. Instead it wants to ‘improve' the issuance of visas to independent travelers from Mainland China under IVS" as contrasted with the "group" VS that has caused problems for both HK and Macau.
They also get it right that VIP is being re-rationalized on Macau. Anyone doing real study here knows MPEL is less reliant on VIP in macau than any other company (85% of ebitda is from mass), citi suggests VIP will remain subdued as the smaller, lesser funded operators are marginalized or simply shut out now as rooms/floors have been reallocated to the big, quality tours. suncity now has new salons at both Altira and Wynn's resort.
They also discuss why they view Galaxy 2 opening in months) and LVS' new Parisian (soft opening scheduled for late this year)are likely to get small table allocations vs Studio City and Wynn's new Palace (due open mid 2016 now) and rave about Studio City hitting it out of the park on addressing the Beijing/Macau mandates to "diversify" and strive to attract more "tourism" to the island and Hengqin territory.
remedial reading just for greg5thtrader... read from start to finish.
and how about the matrixputz alias trying to dis me like an 8 year old moron here... nutty funny. When i suggested some might want to lighten at $43+ last january, he hyped that this stock was going to $75 in 2014. He was still hyping the stock when i explained why we took the hedge off the core and sold out the trading sleeve (that's right matrixputz, the "sleeve") and reloaded that at the 50d ema in Feb (~$38), then selling out the trade piece again at $43. We even discussed why we were doing that despite the 40% YOY increase in GGR for Feb.
Of course, longtimers know I have clarified this several times. I think matrixputz is #$%$... he can;t be the same player as Shirley Mason (the latter known here by many underhanded, decitful and otherwise disgenuine aliases incl: drjackcar, toast, janetate, fkuholley, fkuimbecile, fkynyc, mytek, blaqnite, dth98, etc),
Speaking of dthe98, i see where that alias is now trying to dis Grant Govertson again, having made an #$%$ of himslef two weeks ago on Grant slamming out of cluelessness... So now today Cit's analyst group is calling the "turning point" for Macau -- along with Morgan Stanley and Govertson's firm.
I hope all these moronic weekly call option players have fun under the tires one day soon. LOL
Yesterday Macau's CE Chui told the press they are evaluating the Individual vs group visitation topic and will be deliberate and balanced because the "livelihood" of Macau residents needs to be protected.
It seems he and the new finance and social secretaries as well as Beijing are apparently getting the message that their "Golden Goose" (Macau's gambling tax revenue and the driver for ALL of Macau's employment and economy generally) is a highly coveted object, and VIP tour operators as well as premium mass players, whom have alternate funding vehicles and travel flexibility, will go to alternate venues if political whim and caprice of Beijing and Macau leadership persist on discouraging Macau patronage.
On top the new Leung Tac's (new Finance Secretary in Macau) acknowledgements of the same ilk, e.g., Macau's "edge" is to be the premier gambling destination for the Asia Pacific, this is affirmation that leadership is aware they need to protect their "Golden Goose," in other words, avoid causing GGR to erode away from Macau.
2/3 of the street now rate the U.S. listed Macau names hold or sell. Just now it would be great if all the "esteemed" analysts in the group would pull their buy ratings, but , hey, the consensus is already more negative than it was in 2012... you know, with LVS at $36 and MPEL at $12... this "brilliant" (not) analyst group got that negative just in time for the rocket reversal to over the following 15 months.
The analysts and others must have the clients that are writing all the calls between $24 and $28 or so -- not just out to April, but in March, April and July. And right when Najarian and other option mpnkey's think the options matter so much, they really ought to consider that ALL of the calls combined are equal to about 1 day of trade here, and that is without any accord to paired, verticals, collars used as hedges and similar offsets. Those trading the ridiculously speculative weeklies as one way bets deserve to have their premia confiscated...
Institutional longs are smiling...
Galaxy's table news will be interesting vs the rumor they will get a small number while MPEL will fare better in a couple of months. These company's need those numbers to finish fitting out the new casino floors/construction.
Per filings the "expansion phase" for Studio City is still under review by MPEL and "partnership" with gov't officials, but they have aired ~2100 new rooms in program as this second phase is developed. While they no doubt want to see tables and a more supportive policies out of the new macau regime (so far, so good apart from crowd rhetoric witness LVS approvals within a week of the new Finance secretary swearing in) and a re-rationalized table policy, at least with respect to co's incl MPEL actually making a hard run at "diversification" to promote "destination" tourism and not only gaming. Studio City phase 2 is to be done by July 25, 2018.
The future is bright for Macau and MPEL...
MPEL announced yesterday that the HK exchange delisting is proceeding. They'll be off the HK exchange on July 3.
As discussed here when they first mentioned the topic, this will save them the superfluous regulatory filings/notices that more than double the paper shuffle required for the NASDAQ listing. no brainer as 99.99% of their trading volume is on NASDAQ since the ipo.
another possibility on the April calls is a small capital player was trying to use leverage to take a one way bet that he would not have to deliver shares at $26 next month (as in the shares would stay below that level). As with the other two scenarios I discussed above, what matters is that whoever wrote the calls did not want to remain short them after seeing the surprising strength of Macau GGR over the last few days of February once the glaring spotlights of the golden Week CNY celebrations were over.
A cursory review of longer dated months reveals the same pattern -- those writing the calls in the $26 and close levels have decided they want to reduce their exposure to having their teeth kicked in harder than already seen up from retest at $21.
Golly Shirley Mason (janetate, toast, drjackcar, matrixtrade, mytek, fkuimbecile, fkuholley, fkunyc, blaqnight, and all the rest of your intentionally obnoxious, underhanded and deceptiive aliases), d'ya MacQuarie's view matters to the buyside? LOL But really funny against your bullish post using the the "toast" alias to share David Bain's latest reiteration of bullishness.
This article you posted is focused on Sands (china) and Galaxy's dividend orientations and free cash flow to continue supporting their payouts... it doesn't discuss Galaxy's VIP reliance either, say nothing of the now largely discontinued "goldfish bowl" prostitution ring.
MPEL is not really even mentioned, but it certainly does not have a big dividend payout focus as those two companies have. This analyst, which the article's author incorrectly suggests called the GGR problems of 2014, has been wrong on MPEL almost always. He was negative on it throughout the run up from 2012 until the end of 2013 as the stock ran from $9 to $30, then went to a BUY rating. He missed the first and second tops, changing his rating back to neutral only AFTER the entire group was down more than 30%.
Three weeks ago this analyst was discussing MPEL very favorably in discussing its prospects with Studio City opening this year and its just opened COD Manila. Those reading here know he suggested MPEL's newest resort (COD Manila) would be the catalyst for Manila GGR rising to $4.36B+ in 2016, and his view that MPEL would grab 26% of that total. Lawrence replied that COD Manila will significantly outpace that estimate. Some may want to reread Ho's comments.
Meanwhile, MPEL is dancing on the 50d ema recapture, the last few days of GGR in macau were surprisingly strong, and it is likely MPEL has continued to outpace competitors on occup and ebitda/table, and Packer and Ho remain bullish on macau.
Good the analysts roundly bearish now. They missed EVERY sector turn since 2009 and are contraindicators.
Given expectations and numbers through all but the few days, it is a GREAT result to see the math here... Right as analysts throw in the towel and say it is really bad and will remain so for the rest of the year, the last few days of February show unexpected strength -- by a BUNCH given there was only three play days to close from expectation of down 54-55% (at run rate MTD) to down "only" 49%.
The number is even better given the 100% Chinese owned companies are struggling on low VIP, and at least three analysts called out WYNN's numbers were not good considering their noise on adding new suites for Suncity and other premier junkets.
All that as well as suggested overall Macau occupancy below 88% for the GWeek -- when MPEL has run at 100% occupancy all year long -- implies MPEL is doing really well on a relative basis. The idiot multialias twerps (shirleymasonmatrixtrade here don;t get it, but the pulled hedges and strong bid all days suggests pm longs do. meanwhile, Shirley is short here as janetate, but must be long as toast (LOL)... Too stupid or I'd laugh.
Speaking of utter ridiculousness, Pete Najarian's comments on cnbc discussing the April 17th calls at 26 strike were stupifying. One needs to understand option prints to figure out what was happening, but he clearly does not, even if people pay him and his brother (both ex NFL players) for their option "wizardry." The real story is that someone short the calls (as a hedge or reducing basis hoping they'd expire worthless) synthetically representing around 1m shares decided they wanted to call off that bet before the shares get assigned... now that it appears there may be some new beginnings in Macau -- despite all of the noise and legit constaints of late. LOL
Better days ahead for Macau, and certainly for the singularly best positioned company of them all.
See my other post on this topic a few days ago for more discussion, what Macau wants to change around is the group visa issuance in favor of more individual visas. That will have the smae effect that shutting down the "ultra cheap shopping tours" did two years ago, i.e., then making it difficult for shopping tour promotors to bring in shoppers on cheap tours when those shoppers don't add much to the revenue base and "cost" the destinations mashing crowds and diaper changes in the streets and frustrating crowding everywhere.
Macaunese (and HK officials and residents too) are not saying it directly, but what they want is to curtail what they view as "locusts" (i.e., riff raff from the mainland) coming to these two "independent" territories because such visitors don't really have any money of substance and do not spend any money on dining, shopping or hotels or anything else... they merely clog the streets and make Golden Weeks miserable for everyone, even causing the would be spenders to shy away from coming during these important weeks.
The pickup in Macau gaming revenue during the last few days of February to well beyond the gloom of the "analyst consensus" makes the point.
See the Bloomberg piece for quality discussion and comments from several analysts, but it is obvious that some real players returned for the last few days of February and that the management teams of the Macau operators think the new resorts this year and reduced glare from Beijing may manifest in the form of improving business now, especially 2H14. Fun to see the reference to better than 20% ROIC again... Ho's comments from last month imply MPEL's sees them not only getting to profitability in Manila this year, but also attaining better than the 20% ROIC hurdle at COD Manila next year.
Wait, maybe there is something to the calendar last month and the worst of the glare in macau will continue to ease now??
The useless blitherings of Shuli Renn and james detar and other pseudo-journalists knowing nothing about the markets, these stocks or the industry but foaming the stories as told by short hedge fund interns (LOL), or our own Shirley Mason, desperately it seems attempting to dis people posting anything worth reading here and distort facts and conflate issues on all of her aliases (drjackoff, toast, idiotpumper, matrixtrade, janetate, blaqnite, fcaholley, fcanyc, fcaimbecile and all the rest, including now trying to use a fake "tony" alias after tony himself dissed drjackoff for months on end here), may give some casual readers here a cluttered view of every relevant issue. A really funny one recently was Shirley's dthe98 alias suggesting Philippine residents can't gamble in Manila - they are 70%of GGR there.
There is no "new" non-solicitation initiative. It has always been "illegal" for foreigners to solicit Chinese Nationals for the purpose of encouraging mainlanders to go gambling in casinos away from China's own Macau. The recent and marked proliferation of gambling venues in Vietnam, Cambodia, Russia on top of the pre-existing venues (Australia, Singapore, Manila, Vegas, Korea,) has intensified competition for players from all categories, but the particular renewed enforcement of the standing non-solicitation issue is with regard to promotors from away actively advertising group tours of mainlanders to travel to China adjacent properties by the busload. See the dovetail to the group vs individual visa
The big, high quality, well-funded, rules compliant VIP tour promotors will continue to dominate whereever they set up, responding to clients requests to take them, esp right now while Beijing has Macau under spotlights. Even so, the big tours control ~80% of RCV there. Sun City now has at least 19 cage rooms in Macau, incl a new floor at MPEL's Altira and just opened in WYNN's refurb VIP area, but also has expanded to Manila, Korea, and other venues.
Feb GGR numbers get reported probably Tuesday and, again old news, they will be awful as everyone knows, but from a quant valuation perspective (just ask the 5 largest holders other than Packer and Ho LOL) that is more than discounted in the oversold shares already... Meanwhile, fun to document again that it is more than a few other pm see "value" here: Blackrock, Oppenheimer, Harris and another 7 or so well established value funds taking up all they can get sub $30, and all began buying/adding large last summer too.
Herro's Oakmark Intl fund is the largest holder of MPEL now. Portfolio mgr Herro bought 10m+ shares in the Sep Q (so between $27 and $37/share), and another 11.3m+ shares during the December Q (so between $21 and $27), and now owns 21m+ ADS shares.
Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change (%) Value (in 1,000s)
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P 12/31/2014 21,063,500 11,307,300 115.90 505,945
Noted a few times here since last summer -- value funds are returning/adding hard to MPEL shares as the momo guys left: "we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and Packer via the $300m of buybacks since September."
Here's what Oakmont Int'l's pm (Dave Herro) told VI journal (before the December 13F was published two weeks ago showing that Herro's fund aded 11m shares of MPEL 4q and now has 21m+ shares largest holder):
"The keys to investment success, says David Herro, are skill in valuation and having the discipline to actually buy low and sell high. He would know.
He’s seen it all from his vantage
point as one of the industry’s top
international investors – Morningstar
named him Foreign Equity Manager
of the Decade in 2010 – but even
David Herro is impressed with the level of
economic turbulence today. “There’s always
a lot going on,” he says, “but we’re
probably closer to a peak than a trough on
that front right now.”
Herro has proven more than capable
in navigating turbulence. He manages or
co-manages some $55 billion for Chicagobased
Harris Associates, and the Oakmark
International Fund he’s run since 1992."
"We recently bought shares [MPEL], one of six
license holders to own and operate casinos
in Macau. Macau-related stocks have
been hit by a variety of concerns regarding
corruption, visa restrictions, credit conditions
and regulatory changes. None of
that, however, impacts our view that the
Macau gambling market is a double-digit
grower long-term as increasing supply is
comfortably absorbed by insatiable gambling
demand from China’s rising middle
class. This is a typical type of idea for us:
there’s an industry under pressure, we find
a player in it with distinguishing features
we find appealing, and we place a bet that
short-term problems are not indicative of
structural tailwinds going forward."
goog title for article to learn that the author joins the pile of journalists noting that Feb gaming numbers will be awful... he quotes Wong as "shocked" that Feb is likely down some 50% because VIP and other high rollers did not play during Golden Week as compared with 2014? Someone ought to show him the calendar scheduling of CNY YOY. As most posters who understand the dynamics have discussed here since October, we can expect February numbers will be awful, and that will likely continue on for the quarter if not into the 2Q numbers... More towel tossing ahead, or are the bulls such as David Bain correct that the GGR bottom is in now that February is over? We know Vegas had a bump in table play from April through July last year (esp May and June), and we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and packer via the $300m of buybacks since September.
One thing is clear now, only half of the analysts following the group still have BUY ratings on the group -- that is just about the level this pack had in 2012 with LVS, MGM and WYNN stocks all down to about half their 52 week highs at the time. More recently, recalling that the 100% OF THESE ANALYSTS had BUY ratings on group until Lawrence Ho reset mass expectations in early August (while Steve Wynn, Jim Murren and Shel Adelson were still calling for a turnaround 4Q14), and then only 3 lowered their ratings to neutral/hold, deja vu contrarian nature of the "consensus" analyst ratings on the Macau names (group think) round 5 since early 2012?
goog "Melco Crown’s Ho Sees Pick Up in Manila With New Casino" for the other referenced Bloomnberg article.
Also good to see macau's new "social secretary" clarify his comments on visas -- they want less of the "ultra cheap shopping tours" ilk mainland visitors, and would like to see more visitors coming into Macau on "individual visas" -- you know, the kind that actually stay and play, and spend some money on restaurants and food while they are there... This guy also made special note of using the new 24 bridge to ease congestion during cruch periods, and told reporters they want Beijing's help spreading mainland scheduling over times other than Golden Weeks, as well as the need to accelerate infrastrucutre projects to ease friciton and getting around for tourists and Macaunese people alike.
Seems he was directed to clarify the misguided remarks Shuli Renn and many other journalists and weak analysts spewed about regarding his earlier remarks that they want to reduce mainland gaming on Macau. One day soon the bs will be over and Macau can regain a sense of normalcy...
Also good to see WYNN has apparently gained comfort that phone betting by VIP is not a problem as long as the bets are placed through representatives in the cage rooms, another sign Beijing and Macau govts are rethinking how far to press the Golden Goose that Macau represents for Macau and China, say nothing of Macau's employment and economic development there and in surrounding areas. Perhaps the success of other venues is gaining the central planners' attention now.
missed this fun note last week... goes along nicely with Ho commenting that he expects COD Manila will do better than McQuarie's published estimate of 26% of Pagcor's estimated $4.36B of GGR for 2016.
MANILA, Philippines - Leisure estate and gaming firm Belle Corp. expects revenues to grow bigger in the near to medium term especially due to the lease and operating agreements with Macau casino giant Melco Crowne Ltd.
Belle CFO Manuel Gana said in the nine months ending September last year, the company booked P1.2 billion in revenue from the lease to Melco of the 6.2 hectare property where the City of Dreams Manila stands. In 2013, Belle realized revenues of P1.3 billion from the lease.
These figures, Gana said, are seen to rise further as City of Dreams IS BEGINNING TO ATTRACT HIGH ROLLERS [emphasis added] and consumers and generate foot traffic.
For this year, lease revenues from the City of Dreams property is expected to hit P1.4 billion.
Apart from the lease revenues, Belle will also be realizing a share in earnings from City of Dreams’ gaming operations through its 78.7 percent subsidiary Premium Leisure Corp., which has an operating agreement with Melco.
City of Dreams Manila soft-opened on Dec. 14, 2014 and had a grand launch last Feb. 2. It covers about two hectares of gaming space, more than 900 hotel rooms operated under three hotel brands (namely Crown, Hyatt and Nobu), the DreamPlay indoor amusement park, and approximately two hectares of restaurant and retail space.
Belle also owns significant real estate assets in and around Tagaytay City, encompassing about 800 hectares of land available for future development.
The Sy family consolidated its gaming assets including its stake in City of Dreams Manila under PLC...
City of Dreams Manila is one of the four integrated resort and casinos licensed to operate in Entertainment City, which is expected to become a prime new leisure destination in the country.
Now Shirley (drjackoff, toast, janetate, matrixtrade blaqniteet al) is posing as Tony? What an idiot will do with his time. LOL
Legit posters/readers here will notice that Tony's posts have actually been sincere of late while Shirley's posing as Tony here includes reference to "art thou", an anachronistic and decidedly western concept. Tony is Asian and has never used such vernacular.