Recent chop and basing on option expiry against light volume and rebalancing are done now; PCLN's basing and retest on low volume is now on t-minus days.
Some may have noticed how the stock has kissed yet not seriously breached the 200d ema and that both it and the 50d ema have converged and now turning up again (LOL). Tape volume has been very light since the day after the OPEN deal was announced... that reflects all the institutions that want out prior to the coming lift have already sold out.
More? Retail and commercial travel is soaring these days -- the airlines' rasm, casm, load, ebitdar and eps data for the 2Q and increased guidance info is going to be stunning too. Do note the hoteliers and car rental agencies, the other big pieces of business for PCLN and the other OTAs, are also cranking. PCLN will be reporting record numbers this Q and the smart money is setting up for the blow out Q and ripping move coming.
Get ready to watch PCLN shares catch up with the recent move in TRIP and EXPE as PCLN relaunches to new highs over the next 20 days into the earnings and guidance update.
See my comments on DAL's news from last week... AAL in the same great position except DAL has better routes, mgmt and balance sheet -- but AAL's relative valuation makes up for that. They will both mash it into EOY.
The HOTELS are also mashing! From IBD:
The record-high stock market and rebounding home values have made consumers feel more confident and comfortable about taking vacations, said Arthur Adler, Americas CEO and managing director of JLL's hospitality group. On the business side, the modest economic recovery coupled with slow job growth has necessitated more travel for workers, he added.
More recently, group travelers have begun to book rooms with increasing frequency, which should give the industry a further boost, say Adler and Scott Smith, senior vice president in the Atlanta office of PKF Consulting USA, an advisory and real estate firm specializing in the hospitality industry.
The important group-bookings segment, which includes state organizations, business meeting groups and worker incentive travel programs, pulled back not only because of the slow recovery, but also as result of the negative reactions to the American International Group's (NYSE:AIG) widely publicized retreat at a swanky resort soon after receiving bailout funds, Smith said.
Only now is the group travel segment beginning to book rooms on par with its activity before the recession, which should give the industry a further boost, he adds.
"I've been doing this for 25 years and have never seen the kind of economics that are driving hotel revenues right now," said Smith, referring to the steady rise in fundamentals and lagging construction of new rooms. "We think we're in a real sweet spot."
Investors think so, too. The R.W. Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, which tracks the 15 largest publicly traded hotel companies, is up 11% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 by about five percentage points.
Three of the six largest companies by market cap in IBD's Leisure-Lodgi
Congratulations! In the crush of incredibly stupid posts seen here, especially of late, yours is one of the most mind-numbing of all time! It demonstrates a comprehensive lack of knowledge about the capital markets, this business and this company in particular. Let me guess -- you have been involved in this stock since shorting a whopping 1000 shares yesterday at the open, or you are a first year at a lightweight trading firm and have WAY too much of your peanut sleeve short this stock at the open yesterday. LOL I'll discuss your points as if they are meaningful just for comic relief of the group malaise seen over the last two weeks in particular.
Buybacks ALWAYS make sense when they make sense, and as I discussed extensively when and why they initiated a geared common stock dividend, a buyback program would have been a better capital distribution program... a point even more relevant today than it was late last year. Particularly in light of the Macau GGR expectations and group stock resets shared by Ho yesterday, a meaningful buyback initiation for MPEL is VERY compelling. Why?
1. Buybacks done chasing stocks ever higher when organic, tactical and strategic growth opportunities are waning often don't add shareholder value over time. This buyback is being introduced when MPEL has one of the best footprint and its organic, tactical and strategic growth opportunities are monstrous. Your $25 is wishful thinking for longs (even more than shorts in this context), but at $30, the $500m would take out 3% of the stock -- a very nice chunk when that "use" of forward free capital from adj ebitda accumulation will likely drive ROI in excess of MPEL's best in class overall ROIC metrics. As anyone with a corp finance background understands, this will be the first of a series of authroizations.
2. MPEL's numbers fell short of consensus rev and eps yesterday largely because of the VIP slowdown... yet their adj ebitda remains rock solid, despite carrying the rampi
2. ... carrying the ramping costs associated with Manila in 4q this year and Studio City mid CY15 as confirmed by Ho yesterday.
3. You say you "would be a seller down here" -- what is holding you back? Have at it man; short your gnads off! Others might suspect that when the dust settles on Ho's revelations over the next couple of days, and barring a likely temporary and perhaps bigger than seen yet big leg down for the entire market on geopolitical events, the guys who are long the group with hedges still on likely are pulling box shorts starting this week, and paired shorts, yes, even on MGM are likely going to come off quickly now. All the bad news is in for the sector. Maybe ambitious buying will wait for data sets for some pm, but the left tail risk discussed the last time the stock touched $29 is now on the screen... even WYNN broke below $200 yesterday and LVS broke to post earnings call lows be for an untold number of hours or days to go. LOL
4. The key point is that MPEL has already monstrous adj ebitda relative to footprint and huge operating leverage (BIGGER adj ebitda) rolling forward as the new properties double the footprint f12m and they start producing revs to go with the preopening exp being carried. Then they will finish up iconic Tower 5 which will become the premium mass site of choice on Cotai. Then they will proceed with expansion phases of Manila and Studio City... and then the Japan program.
Reread #4 a few times... MPEL is already cheapest in the group on adj ebitda metrics, and ebitda will be amply growing for years to come. And just think, mgmt and the BOD believe they have sufficient capital and adj ebitda generation to not only do their buildouts over time... they can cover the new buyback program and do the dividends.
btw, are you aware that Packer and Ho's companies own 67% of MPEL? THEIR INTERESTS ARE DIRECTLY ALIGNED WITH LONGS HERE!
Last year I called the stock stupid cheap at $22 as we came close to doubling our rebought core position put on below $13 in late 2012. Here's a quick look at perspective then, and why it is even cheaper today.
Beginning with 2013 GGR growth vs 2012, the YOY comps for Macau GGR included the huge impact of all of LVS' new properties coming up the "opening ramp", meaning that unless a commensurate percentage increase in new property openings was happening this year, growing more than 15%+ in 2014 was going to be premised on solid mass growth (smoked that even if "slowing to 20% now as conversions are done) even without footprint growth for Macau this year and a fairly stable if slowing VIP growth curve. We know that VIP presumption aired by Ho and all other CEOs has been thumped on the conversion to premium mass effects as well as private jet fleets diverted to Vegas, AND of all the noisy corruption headlines and low profiling done by the tours, players and all the rest.
Still, comps of 14/13 YOY through May showed GGR growth was 16% vs 14%. June's (and later July's) data had the swing on the WC, VIP and other pieces this year, even having a net drop for June, against growth of 20% GGR for the 2013/12 period -- and STILL the stock traded off in early July 2013, down to the $21 level that was the thrust of my comment above. The ytd GGR yoy was 13% vs 15% 14/13. It is not until we compare July's data that we see ytd GGR down to 10% vs 16% the PY. In the lookback, it was the run up into EOY13 that made the 19% happen, particularly the 4th Q which included the 31% for Oct Golden Week.
Will key catalysts for the group (Golden Week, infrastructure progress, new IRs for MPEL, WYNN and MGM and Galaxy IRs) begin being discounted more favorably in days, weeks or months? How many days before MPEL-specific catalysts (COD manila, Studio City, Tower 5, Altira VIP repositioning, COD revamps) will be more appropriately be reflected in valuation?
Day follows night.
"Our development pipeline continues to progress, with Studio City on-budget and on-track to open in mid-2015, while the timing of our Philippines Project remains unchanged and is expected to open around the middle of next year. Both of these exciting development opportunities are key components of our strategy to maximize return on invested capital and drive long term shareholder value."
Reread that last sentence for emphasis -- do you think they are going to Manila to dilute their ROIC? We sure do not as discussed at length here by us a few times since 2012.
"Macau continues to deliver robust growth across all gaming and non-gaming segments in 2013, highlighting its unique position to cater to the rapidly evolving Asian consumer and expanding middle class. Similarly, our Manila project is well positioned to address this segment in the Philippines and the broader region providing another destination to a wider array of consumers seeking a broader leisure and entertainment proposition. Both of these markets are expected to benefit meaningfully from wide-reaching development plans and significant infrastructure improvements, helping to improve access and enhance customer experience."
Here is more reference to doing more than just gaming in Macau and Manila -- and identifying and capitalizing on the emerging trends in mass and PREMIUM MASS that MPEL is leading the pack on. Ring any bells about what Pansy was calling her visionary thing in the article this week? LOL More like she is trying her level best to think of what brother Lawrence would say and ascribe that "vision thing" to herself whenever she finds herself standing next to an open microphone.
We look forweard to the june Q results and updated outlook from MPEL... we like Lawrence's upod framing of 15% GGR growth for Macau this year (said knowing VIP was being crossed into Premium Mass by MPEL) and can hardly wait to see more info on their "PHENOMENAL" Golden Week that began May.
See the GRAsia article of that title for the whole article, but almost a month after we drew the picture, Union Gaming's analyst has begun to figure out the 2Q softness in VIP in macau as the junkets laid low about playing in Macau --opting for private jet trips to WYNN and MGM instead as I suggested was happening in my July 7th post. The central planners have since told Tam to #$%$, no doubt... they just can't kill the Golden Goose that macau gaming represents for them. Hey Union Gaming research director, you really ought to tell your underlings to connect the fact that MPEL and LVS, in particular, are converting lots of VIP play over to the more obscure and massively more profitable direct credit (premium mass) play, and that their ytd VIP reduction is likely call it about 1.5B in the second Q alone. btw, tyhis dynamic is also likely benefitting WYNN and MGM there.
From my post on July 7th here:
"the good news about Vegas VIP last month is that Steve and Shel must have done some "old school" charter flights bringing in the Asian players. That let Tam pound his head into the pile of bs he helped mound regarding UnionPay machines (that is all about nothing of meaning to the elite venues), Visa nonsense (5 vs 7 days), smoking "bans" (that will turn out to be a benefit to those who do not want to be in smoke-filled casinos and yet a convenient place to smoke for those who do want to breath tobacco air all night), "corruption" crackdowns (yawn, but good comedy from Tam), table limits (that really aren't remotely adhered to even as rough guidelines), and so on and on... and since then he's clarified that UnionPay restrictions are just bs and tried to make the soccer excuse for why things looked slow for VIP last month.
...Tam and all of the central planners over there likely have had a huddle or two about protecting the Golden Goose that is Macau gaming, visitation, tourism, travel, restaurants, credit fees, etc.... All good news for Macau's future GGR growth."
If you haven;t used the initial authorization yet, this would be a GREAT day for pedal to the metal on that $500m buyback authority, just prior to announcing the COD manila opening schedule.
On that last point, it is hard for anyone to book a Golden Week or any other fourth quarter visit to COD on Manila if you guys don;t let the world know when it will be open. Some news on that would be good later this week since your development partner in Manila has said you'd be open for Golden Week (starts Oct 1).
"Adjusted EBITDA(1) was US$330.1 million for the second quarter of 2013, as compared to Adjusted EBITDA of US$203.8 million in the comparable period of 2012. The 62% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA was [primarily] attributable to strong growth in the mass market table games segment at City of Dreams..."
A ceo focused on quant and FCF generation?
"I am pleased to report another successive quarter of record earnings and EBITDA, building on the strong momentum in the first quarter of 2013.
"Highlighting the ideal strategic positioning of our flagship property, City of Dreams, this premium-mass focused property once again captured meaningful market share in the mass market table games segment which, in turn, has been the major driver of our impressive group-wide performance in the second quarter of 2013. City of Dreams' unique ability to cater towards these highly discerning, premium mass market-focused customers is highlighted by our market-leading mass table yields, which is increasingly important in a table supply constrained market."
"Premium mass focused property" is pointed here... as the most desirable players and MPEL have forged their very own direct stay and play relationships including credit arrangements settled up every 30 days, you need not wonder too much why VIP GGR growth has diminished in macau YOY, quite apart from all of the other headline bs and particularly as other venues try to follow MPEL's leadership on this dynamic.
Here's more from ho on that: "We continue to move forward with the fifth hotel tower at City of Dreams and anticipate to commence construction by the end of 2013. This iconic additional hotel tower represents another powerful addition to our wide array of amenities and attractions that City of Dreams already offers its premium-mass and high end customers, providing another tool to further extend our leading position in this key segment."
Tower 5 is rolling on schedule as poer subsequent updates.
Re "Anything else?" We could use a Woody Allen horse manure sock factory for the media... add Zacks to the Barrons' and IBD "hall of stupidity" crowd.
doc, the conversion of the most desirable stay and play patrons from VIP tours to direct credit relationship "Premium Mass" players is poorly understood by call it almost everyone -- but certainly most analysts and sellsiders from a significance standpoint. Premium mass and VIP trendlines at MPEL are more than expressed by MPEL's results -- this conversion dynamic is the PLAN and why MPEL is mashing competitors on a pound for pound basis. It is also a serious piece of why MPEL remains in fabulous standing with the political leadership in Macau... catering to these highly valuable visitors is valuable to MPEL, but it is also that to Macau's politicians, shop owners, restauranteurs and other cultural development aspects for the island and surrounding buildouts.
We don't think credit availability is an issue for most quality tours or players, but losing the cream players to direct Premium Mass is not going to be good for tour operators dso/collection stats. LOL
"Get your motors running"!
He's one of the new deputy cio guys so he's not the lead on analysis of the sector or making the decision to own Macau companies, but he is there as the spokesman sharing the macro view of those key ideas in the now expanding equity mgmt business. Easy to give him a pass on not knowing the details but his reference to being very willing to invest in companies trading at 10-11 ebitda relative to [rev] growth of 15% was "correct" and pointed -- as long as one realizes he talking about overall street estimates for GGR being the 15% part.
As toast notes, those who know the details, including Pimco's buyside research guys (I've been suggesting the buyside/pm on the sector largely ignore the sellside analysts in this sector) and, anyone comprehending the legit posters on this board over the last couple of years understands, MPEL is growing revenues and ebitda at significantly more twice that 15%rate! He also mentioned Macau Studio City is coming online in Macau next year, but he did not know (or at least mention) that COD Manila should be up no later than October this year (in time for Golden Week) and represents and outstanding new growth venue for the company (including the little noticed second big bump in budget for Manila -- some 25% all in this week), nor did he mention that Tower 5 at COD, what will be THE ICONIC property on the Cotai strip, will be online in 2016 or that Phase 2 of MSC will be on the heels of that... or that MPEL will likely fare brilliantly in terms of getting a concessionaire seat in Japan when it is ready for gaming there.
Brian Sullivan's comment was revealing -- most of the street doesn't know the MPEL story up to now! Hey Sully, Packer's "Crown Resorts" is trying to build a new casino in Australia, not MPEL which is "Melco Crown Entertainment Limited". LOL
We also love Pimco talking airlines now. Pals know we've owned DAL and ALK since late 2012, and AAL t6m. Lots of room to run higher still on those too.
knightrider -- great post as is your history here...
As a point of clarification, MPEL may well have been buying in shares prior to this trade, but the size of this piece required disclosure under the HK listing agreement threshold referenced in the filing. We think this broadcast is unfortunate in that it puts otherwise unwitting shorts on notice that the company (including multibillionaires/co-chairmen Ho and Packer's companies owning a total of 67% of outstanding shares) is done letting their shares be stomped on down at these severely mispriced levels. As you allude to, we'd rather they buy in the entire $500m authorization down here prior to disclosing any buybacks, and then disclose the iterative second in what will likely be a series of up to some 8% of outstanding shares under the HK listing rules relevant to their ownership profile.
We, and our pals focused on this sector, love the message nonetheless... this is more than a heads up for everyone to take notice -- it is a 50 caliber shot fired straight through the forehead of unhedged shorts. MPEL's future will be brilliant; glad to see them assert their confidence prior to the opening of COD Manila as we noted last week that they were likely to do by taking in shares while idiots were willing to sell shares down here.
We know both Shuli Ren and the MS team are worthless in assessing Macau prospects and figuring out what is relevant to the individual company stories, but given all the now very public refutation of the stupidity and ignorance these people have diseeminated on behalf of hedge funds, it is unimaginable they would continue to spew such garbage. I'll pass on a lengthy stomp here, but a few quick notes to highlight the atrocity in Shuli Ren's latest dippy "real time, market moving news" -- even though she and MS again have it all wrong and the market now understands that. LOL
Shuli says "Among the Macau stocks, LVS seems the consensus overweight, for its exposure to the fast-growing, profitable mass market gaming segment." It may be that a handful of idiots think that, but no other company is mashing it out of the park like MPEL on mass and premium mass, adj ebitda and footprint expansion f18m from here. Additionally, MPEL is pure macau until they open manila -- the key part is MPEL does not have the deadweight of the Vegas strip and other U.S. venues, or the threats online gaming and increasingly ubiquitous casinos here are having on further Vegas gaming erosion.
MS ev/ebitda numbers must be leaving out out adj cash/ST investments; MPEL has alot now to build out Manila and Studio city as well as Tower 5 over the next two years. For real analysis of EV/ebitda and adj ebitda, see Bain's work. He understands and that is why his work shows MPEL to be the cheapest EV/ebitda stock in the group. did I mention lately MPEL's adj ebitda continues to grow faster (and their ROIC is higher) than any company in the group?
Dividend yields and int expense should not be in the relative value equation. MPEL will pay only a modest div/buybacks until the huge development queue isdone incl phase 2 of MSC. P/E is the same issue -- ridiculous way to assess mpel's value now as earnings aren't the math for the story. ROIC and ebitda math are it -- tho idiots do not get it yet.
just clicked to see if this moron replied on other posts of quality. LOL... Forest is one idiot and a half and pos. LOL
Hope he is still short his 3 shares here though... stock is up $40 or so since the moron tried to dis me and we plain love having deutcheee bags opposite our thinking and trades.
thanks ed... yes, i meant 2013... i believe you were around during 4Q12 when we called MPEL a screaming buy below $13 since theyt had resolved the fear of a big secondary to fund out Manila then.
And to be clear, we called for a PT of $25 at the start of 2013. That was raised to $30 when it pulled back to $21 (from just above $25) in early July 2013... Shortly thereafter we suggested the stock could rip to $35 into EOY and as it got to $37 and then pulled back to ~$34, we said we expected it may well blow back to $40 by eoy (2013) as the momo guys chase and pm pull of hedge offsets into EOY. That all played out just as called... and we'll suggest $39+ change as of 12/31/13 was, as a practical matter, close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades to our $40 PT on the upside. LOL
You likely recall we were very concerned about frothy trading as it ripped toward $45, selling out our then trading sleeve and hedging the core as we thought a trip back to the 50d ema (~$37+) was looming... then that happened before the double top just above $45.
We were very solid on all of that. what we missed in March was the thumping slammed on call it all growth stocks back to the 50d or even 40week levels, and below that on many names, notably MPEL as the bs noise purveyors threw S at the fan. All of that gave us the most delightful adds to core we can imagine here -- a pantload and another pantload below $35 as shared as we put it on... including the tentative and then firmly called retest bottom (see "bottom is in" post here).
As noted today, our PT is still $50+ no later than when the Dec Q report is filed (early Feb).
We've added a few more shares here since, but now have a small sleeve on for LVS into Wednesday... Shel must be #$%$ at all the bs noise and be desirous of doing some thumping this week...
So all in, we are thrilled with the Pimco endorsement... as we've been saying, hot/momo money left the building around on the way down from $45 thru the 50d ema and then the 200d ema, and the sleeve daytraders and interns shorted it down further with the help of weak sauce sellsiders and dip S pseudo-journalists, but through all of that, the legit smart money has used it as a great opportunity to put on big positions in a small tradable float stock on the cheap, ideal chance to capitalize on the coming multiyear run higher now. The box shorts have been taken off by all of us now, and we continue to sell put slugs for lunch money (LOL).
and toast, while we clearly think MPEL is the best stock in the group and that this mgmt team is the best in the business, Steve Wynn and his team are also very competent players...
You know we don't think much of the Vegas and domestic rust belt ideas, and we agree VIP is flattening out on growth in Macau, but there are a few things the sellside and street don't really appreciate yet about WYNN. Everyone seems to grip that the second property opening on macau for them in 2016 will be a huge bump for WYNN revenues and ebitda, but we've heard or read no one other than us note that WYNN is going to benefit from not only having the best stable of tour operators (along with MPEL that is), but also pickup some of the slack in next tier tours being de-emphasized by LVS and others as they try to follow MPEL's leadership direction of positioning more strategically inpremium mass and mass play, capturing all of the ancillary benefits associated with higher win rates, F&B, ADRs, occupancy and MSE business development... In this business, mgmt matters and WYNN will very likely do really well over time.
Read that again to learn we are a bit better than guessing. LOL
Those paying attention to our comments must be having as much fun as we are on PCLN, EXPE, the airlines, and, our darling pick for this year, MPEL.
See you all at $1400+ within a few weeks on PCLN. LOL
Several recent threads here and in other forums have suggested MSC may not be granted approval to run a casino in this next IR complex coming to Macau... analysts and others making such statements really ought to do a little bit of work before making such uninfrmed and errant comments.
I'll pass on rehashing the 3%/yr table limits for Macau (it is not legislated, more like a general guideline without compliance since first mentioned a couple years ago as discussed here prior). But as for whether MPEL will operate a casino at MSC, that is what an "Integrated Resort" does, and getting tables approved -- sans Steve Wynn's "highly confident" or Sheldon's blowhorn style of talking about it -- is likely a done deal for Lawrence and MPEL.
from 2013 Annual report filed in April 2014:
"We are developing the Studio City project to be a cinematically-themed integrated resort, designed to
deliver a unique entertainment proposition to visitors to Macau. We also expect the Studio City project to capture
the increasingly important mass market segment in Asia and, in particular, from Greater China, with its
destination theming, unique and innovative interactive attractions, and strong Asian focus. In addition to its
anticipated diverse range of gaming and non-gaming offerings, we believe Studio City’s location in the fast
growing Cotai region of Macau, directly adjacent to the Lotus Bridge immigration checkpoint (“Where Cotai
Begins” which connects China to Macau) and a proposed light rail station, is a major competitive advantage,
particularly as it relates to the mass market segment.
Studio City has an approved gross construction area of 707,078 square meters... The first phase of the Studio City project is expected to include a 5-star luxury hotel and related facilities, gaming capacity, retail,
attractions and entertainment venues (including a multipurpose entertainment studio). The first phase of the
Studio City project is currently targeted to open in mid-2015.
NUS over-stepped authorized product distribution... and they are being slain for it. THAT is a great short!
HLF has been and is being careful to make friends there and follow all the rules while dotting the "i's and crossing the "t's". Notice no regulatory action has headhunted them there? LOL
China will soon enough be HLF largest market. Almost time to go back in with more than peanuts after a few lucky in/out same day trades of late.