Go back to the Sep 30 13F to see Elliott sold out 579k shares during the 3rd Q, so they sold out those shares between $23 and $32/share. Their residual position as of October 1st was 2,529k shares, not even half of 1% of total ownership, and they sold that out for between $32 and $39/share. Profit taking/taking out some with a collar or similar positioning is one thing, but selling out an ideally-positioned company consistently outperforming guidance is another.
As noted above, their 2013 performance was roughly 1/3 the S&P 500 for the year -- special situations and distress, yes, but still weak sauce relative to top performing funds. There are funds whose returns in the last couple of years have been consistently excellent (LOL), but Elliott is not even close. Anyone looking to them for stock picking prowess ain't thinking too well.
Have a good look at the ownership on the first couple of pages of the 13Fs and all of the 13Gs -- rock solid names there, including Crown Mgmt and Melco group -- BOTH of which own 33% of the company and have sold out none since inception. In our view, those guys know more than any other management group involved in Macau or the Manila, and while putz small funds may think it is a great idea to short these shares on the news of the week (particularly the rumors that the early trust/shadow banking may soon have a "Lehman moment" and economic data involving commodities involved in China imports/exports last month are extremely negative headlines, we continue to think it is a great set up for the surprisingly strong turnaround of data sets and the Macau oriented stocks) coming right up.
I've pointed out several times since last year when the shares dipped for a few days from $25 back to $20, then as the yr end incentive lockdowns/hedging took place, and then again from $45 back to the double tested 50d ema, and now again, but the confluence of those dips with paid dipS bashing here is a clear sign they are back.
To our benefit...
ZQK's numbers and null set outlook blow vs Urban Outfitters, so this is looking alot like the big SI has some caught unhedged short trying to cover for a few days as we suggested may happen... up uneconomically another few days and it'll be ripe to short again. Just for fun, we'll let you know when we get short again. LOL
pass the pipe to your long pals here while it lasts. We smell a good opportunity to short it heavy coming right up. LOL
And, unlike Quik, Roxy and DC Brands, those are still relevant brands that kids still want (at least the Urban outfitters gear).
That said, American Eagle is out there in the Roxy/cheap junk bucket...
Again, retail is a tough business, esp youth fashion. companies need to constantly refresh and be exciting to remain viable. ZQK brands are "has beens", except in foreign countries where the kids don't speak English and so have yet to figure out they are wearing brands kids in Western countries have long abandoned.
Love gejim1947's update above put up 2 days later -- after trying to dis me seems he actually went back to read our posts... LOL
gejim1947 • Mar 8, 2014 12:32 PM
Actually, Squeezy, I agree with you about a lot of what you say (like Obama, you sure take a long time to say it though). I listened to the conference call and was very unimpressed with the management team. I am simply saying that this company will be dressed up and sold. That is the only reason I am holding it. Look at what is happening over the past two years with GAP and A&F....still viable brands in the long run and can be turned around with the right leadership. Less
Good for you! An open mind is a sign of intellect and education...
btw, I already told you the story on selling dead brands... do you really think Bob would have left without selling the company for the change in control premium if it was there? And as for "dressing the story up for sale"? Again, they are presiding over a smoldering plane crash -- in a plane the prior mgmt badly hurt, but the current mgmt team piloted into the ground at full throttle.
Billabong's fate is the irretrievable pathway at this point.
Good for you! An open mind is a sign of intellect and education.
Gap and A&F have gone hot and cold as companies/brands, but esp Gap hascontinually reinvented themselves from a style and "freshness" perspective. Dana Telsey will tell you that retailers who do not do that are like hot restaurants... on the road to a fail when people get tired of them and want something new.
Footwear is one of the hottest segments in teen and fashion retail, yet DC Brands is waning, fading from out of step to dead. This mgmt team's answer? Go downline to compete on price! That is the same thinking that has taken Roxy down the toilet.
Same with Quik... once the only brand the lifestyle 30+ set and all kids wanted to wear (shirts, wetsuits, sandals, backpacks, snowboard pants, winter jackets, and ya... board shorts), today it is a brand with "China junk" quality -- cheap fabrics, worse construction and gaudy/ugly logos and huge print -- no one wants to wear except netstockers's kids and their classmates. Dead in L.A. and Newport/Laguna is DEAD, let alone void in the rest of the country. LOL
We have seen a delightful recovery back from below $16 here... delightful. And the story and stock are just now getting going.
Can mgmt update guidance competently enough to close out the drop gap from Dec 2, 2014?
See the "Getting This Story Back to Exciting Now" thread for the key points they need to make tomorrow to begin the RIP back to the mid $20s. That'll do it...
LOL -- You tell grftt... but he is an imbecile on all 8 aliases he's used so far. LOL
And he is too stupid to have a margin acct to short anything in... so he's obviously being paid by some dip S pm who thinks MPEL is a good unhedged short at these levels. As noted, though, we are grateful his employer's lame thinking and that they are back. It has made it easy to add shares between $41 and $43.
Funnier is that those pigeon english putzes actually think anyone, even the feeble-minded, would sell shares based upon the inane posts they put up daily.
So here on dip S alias #8 you fail to use your numb effer used car salesman bs?
The only "predication I have shared here is our PT of #50 by EOY which we have cast as likely same level of conservatism as our initial PT of $25 for 2013 (first discussed in Novemeber 2012 with the stock just below $13. LOL
The "pivot point" is a well-established technical analysis term and concept. What we said about the pivot last week was NOT a prediction. It was a fact. The reality that you don't understand jack S about technical analysis and try to dis anyone commenting on it richly underscores your ignorance and stupidity.
You ought to go back and read every post we've shared on the charts, fundamentals and quant analysis since $20 last July. With some remedial reading and comprehension classes, even a moron like you might be able to elevate yourself out of the imbecile bucket...
Now I know you can't understand any of that, so in terms you can comprehend, go F yourself and twerk the horse you rode in on. LOL
I'll guess we own more shares than most posters, and we have been big bulls on the story for 3 years except for the interlude of dilution risk before they locked down the funding for Manila. Further, we've suggested that smart as Chanos is, he's not giving the central planners enough credit regarding their willingness to use huge firepower to protect China's economy from the downside risk of letting the shadow banking system collapse, or otherwise ruining credit availability for their entrepreneurial millionaires and billionaires and employment for the millions of people coming in from rural China.
In simple terms, e don't foresee a collapse of China's economy or financial system; conversely, we anticipate expansion of Macau's GGR for years to come. Yet, as my post summarized, their are several good reasons some pm would hedge their long to reduced net long positions. Additionally, the renewed presence of the multialias putzes that tried to ruin the board a couple time in recent months signals loudly that moronic pm think they can hire idiotic bashers who can't even write a sentence to convince people who do speak english to panic sell out small positions in a panic, thus negatively impacting the share price for a day or two past the recent stalling action in the shares.
To be clear, this confluence of uncertainties (China economy slowing all of the sudden on big import export miss last month?; shadow banking trusts imploding (two of hundreds of thousands so far; airliner disappearance mystery in the South APac; and the Ukraine mess) have clearly impacted the gaming sector valuations for some likely very breif period... Yet we think most of the issues will quickly fade as overdone concerns, and that Macau GGR will continue to surprise to the upside as it has for many Q running.
The ceo already said they'd beat the top end of the range... and now the earnings call is just two 2 days out.
Shorts are effd. LOL
f moron -- same s as always. You are buried short at $16 -- go back and read your lame f head posts.
As for us? Fret not, you have not made anything on us or anyone else as we are $2 itm now. As said prior, we own it below $17 and will be adding on a confirming cc update. You'll be sitting there with S in your pants before, during and after the cc. LOL
If your posts were not so stupid, you'd realize that your every post is stupid and unsupported drivel.
We are not whining about anything. More like enjoying watching the shorts, including your 25 shares at $16, go further underwater by the week on the run up to earnings. LOL
The ceo already told us they will be above the top end of the guided range/consensus. But i'll goof on your 5 points of blithering anyway.
1. Weather does not matter to the analysis of this stock. If the franchisees missed their objectives on weather, they are making it up now. And who doesn;t love a good donut with a cup of good coffee on a cold day?
2. Gas prices are now dropping hard and don't matter anyway.
3. We own Dunkin and it is a great story, but their donuts suk. DNKN is making money on sandwiches and drinks, not donuts.
4. Cramer is a bright guy, but his books and show and advice are for idiots and no better than a dartboard. He plays idiot boy for the morons who would buy his books or listen to his rants on tv. Hello? LOL SBUX is another great company we own... but people do not go there for the world's best donuts. People also don't go to KKD for tea or to read... they go for coffee and donuts. Period...
5. Minimum wage hike will be a stupid result for all of corporate America, but kkd already pays its people more than the average retailer, so KKD will be less effected than others.
Again, technical analysis is fun, but our focus is always fundamentals and quant work.
Today we can see the market and this group are under pressure from the surprisingly weak China import/export data from last month on top of the ukraine mess and the airliner mystery, albeit with a nice bounce off the day's low.
Deeper into the chart, confirming volume did not kick in on the breakout and although the stock remains above the 50d ema with 94 rsi, it has retreated some 5% from the pivot point -- close to another shakeout level (7-8%) for those adhering to strict chart analysis disciplines, and looking like a double top if the morons can break it down on heavy volume (volume has been light vs the 50d since the pivot last week). Fun to note the serious pm in these shares don't trade on charts in a vacuum. LOL
The events of the last few days certainly gave the Macau gaming companies plenty of reasons to pause, and they are all off together again today... is this it, or down another couple of percent first. We'll add more if the morons paying these putz bashers (that have re-appeared here with new aliases) can push it back to the 50d ema... otherwise, we'll stand on what we have for now.