THIS IS JUST ABOUT READY TO TURN INTO THE NEXT BIG PREMIUM ON SALE OF MED EQUIPMENT COMPANY SALE -- JUST ABOUT THE SAME GREAT SHAREHOLDER OUTCOME AS WAS MAKO 2 MONTHS AGO... thanks to Uncle Carl.
MAKO, after running from teens to 43 two years ago (we shorted it at 38 on the way up), then missed the next 5 Q in a row. Instead of watching it collapse again after clawing back up to 16 this year, they decided to sell to Stryker while the getting was good, at a huge premium to the run up price.
The street thinks this mgmt team is teh suk and Carl knows he can win some BOD seats if necessary to change out mgmt... but the better course he will likely advocate is an auction of the Company. The timing is good as there are many big cap companies likely willing to take out this co for some if its best in class obgyn related technical equipment.
The BOD and mgmt have a choice though... be forced to sell out quickly in an auction, or go ahead and pair up with a sweetheart deal (suitor of choice) to do a tax free reorg sale and keep some of the exec jobs and consulting contract "kisses" and a few BOD seats.
As with MAKO, the change in control premium is likely going to be at least $10 or so to Carl's 13D change date price... we think the franchise is worth at least $30, perhaps $35 near term based on recent deal metrics. Hit it HOLX, your fumbling days are over!
As you know from last year, we agreed with you and others then that einhorn was dead wrong on his 5 point essay which included that no one would renew on the new Vue or kcups when the reality is that many did. We made fun of the rest of his thesis and won that with authority from $18 to $88.
We agree with you on his bs about accounting. No funny debits or huge inventory build not correlated with sales...
But we think his comment, almost a whisper from him, that now 25% of pods sold are going out without license fee payments owed to GMCR. That is telling! His take on upgrades to new machines was also interesting -- and we also note that SBUX and PEET pods ar superior to any we have tried with a GMCR label -- a bit at odds with your take above (we know SBUX is currently paying license fees on all products). But 25%? No wonder Kelley sounded like he was in a POW camp with a gun at his head last night.
Today was clearly all about corp desk buback activity and panicked shorts... but where will the stock be in a month or two? If Einhorn's 25% is correct, it is clearly a telegraph of more problems to come on share, revenue growth and ebitda... but the guidance for "high single digits" -- half the level for 2013 -- is really telling. They know it is getting rutted on the track out there, and they have told everyone it is coming. now, whether a horse will drink is a different question... but time has a way of opening eyes.
We think the stock is in trouble not yet understood... but maybe they can drift it until they get carbonation done in half the time they said in September. We'll get long when that is ready...
Schmuckowab said what? LOL
You paki trading club putzes are a laugh, I'll give you that!
You should fly on LUV then, and hope you are on their 1 plane in 10 that have ENT service, and get out your wallet to pay $15/flight for email and movies and surfing. LOL
As far as users experience on other services, are you aware of the speed initiatives that will be in place for gogo within 12 months, and that ENT is using gogo satellite service? The good outcome for ENT is to be acquired by gogo for a nice premium. You should be rooting for gogo if you are long ent -- happy or not, gogo customers will remain gogo airline lockup customers for years to come under the respective contracts. if you fly in Norway or vietnam or northern china, ENT service may be available to you on those planes in a couple years... but everyone will be using their phones start to end of flights long before then!
There is a stupid F comment for all to laugh about.
I see you are a F putz punk #$%$ off everyone on every board. Keep on making an #$%$ of yourself..
but get back to the carwash before you get fired f head. LOL
We have posted here I think on 4 days since Sep 10th.
and now we see you are nothing more than a putz moron punk. That's good though, it let's serious players see that the crystal meth trailer park crowd is part of the momo putzes chasing this without any knowledge of the issues challenging the company. LOL
We often do -- part of managing a portfolio responsibly. Our returns since the early 1990s speak for themselves though. Did you ever hear the one about take the easy gains? LOL
You must be new here? This was one of our largest allocations from $18 to 61 and then $73 up through $88 (trading sleeve and new core) this year, and then short (left on the 50% hedge of the core position sold out at $85) from $85 doen to $59 about 10 days ago. We made a LOT more than $22k here.
Stock is down $1.50 from when einhorn took to the podium in NY... we usually do not daytrade, but the company really ought to stay on the bid for a week or two lest it be easy for Davey. LOL
and the guy who said we may see $75-80 today! I'll suggest that that $73.50 is close enough to call that a brilliant hunch!
We may also still see $60 today.
As I suggested premarket, it'll be a fun day to watch with no horse in the race.
looks like corp buybacks trying to stand on his feet this morning, huh. His presentation is now over. Can;t wait for a report on what he said.... but we doubt he said, gee , I give up.
my call on price action? we usually don't give a S about daily moves and don;t have a position, over?
If anything, we think last night's call tilts the thesis toward einhorn's view -- directly at odds with our take up until Sep 10th and then last night's news regarding lack of licensing signups and the compressed revenue guidance.
So let's see -- you are impressed that the company's buyback activity couple with panicked retail and unhedged trading club shorts has moved the stock up for a few hours ahead of einhorn's retort? LOL
As for price calls, prior to last night's updates, right here on this board, we suggested up 3-5 on solid results and guidance (from 62+) or down 5-10 on a miss, hello?
This morning, all considered, we said we viewed it more likely we'd see below $60 than above $75. Was it not clear we don;t have a horse in the race yet? As for the $60 part, given the obvious sloppy repurchase plan buying on the tape, it now seems unlikely einhorn can push it down this morning or perhaps even today...
but he may be much craftier than you suspect... what happens when dip S unhedged shorts are covered in and einhorn and his contingent hit their sell algos again? to the extent this is not real longs buying (unlikely we think) other than the company, the higher it goes today the easier it will be for the committed shorts to stuff it again.
The company told you last night that the 7 or so months between now and hoped for sign ups of unlicensed players is going to compress revs, cash flows and eps. That is not a rosy backdrops for the stock... and who is the F punk here? LOL
"Not exactly"... He is short above $85.
And you and fcolosino apparently don't understand the meaning of "box short" (most likely above $80).
Algo battle starts later today. Einhorn on in a few minutes now.
Our record here over the last 2+ years has been outstanding, but are we that good? LOL
Einhorn is at the Robinhood Conference today -- will he use shorting gmcr as his 15 minute "Best Idea" or shorting Fedex as the new SBI? Fun to watch the tape on gmcr today with no position.
GMCR needs to emphasize premium options because that is where new competitors are taking share. Again, if you are a serious coffee drinker and use keurig single serve machines, try PEET italian or french roast blends or the sbux option -- they are all better than gmcr's lineup -- even though the new gmcr darkl roasts are very good. And price is the really soft point. When PEET doesn;t need to pay a license fee, that is all pricing power to play the margin compression game.
Talk about cheerleading. We wouldn't bet a college fund on that...
We currently have no position but think it is more likely the stock will see print below $60 than over $75 today. We actually hope Einhorn blasts the story hard enough to let us reload large well below $60. From a chart perspective, down around the last reset at $42ish would be great.
While we wait, DNKN is a much sounder footing for up 30% relatively near term. So is SBUX.
Based on your post it seems you missed my points entirely. As for the punk comment? teh suk it Trebeck
Those who have been around know we have been one of the biggest bulls on the stock since $18, but thought there were several reasons (chiefly pushed out rev doubling carbonation and also the broad licensing fee implications for share,margins, cash flow and eps growth flattening) it would pull back from high $80s to $60 or even back to the $40s unless they could make huge strides on licensing and competitive threats.
It's only our view, but the news last night was more supportive of the Einhorn mindset than a bullish outlook near term.
That said, we are amazed that not a single one of the analysts congratulated gmcr management on a great quarter they just turned in despite the many challenges Kelley et al are trying to address. Chicken S of that following and if I were running the company I would be calling the corp finance coverage to express my great displeasure.
refreshingly intellectual response to my attempt at gentle critique...
last night the analysts seemed to be reading my posts as each of my points before the call were the emphasis of the questions. Joking aside though, the analysts are all over the key issues here -- regardless of whether they got there with Einhorn's horn honking, the few quality posters here who understand the issues, and overcoming the bs and clueless optimism here. Again, your reply to mine reflects elevated thinking and congrats to you.
But they do not have PEET and Whole Foods yet or they would have been honking the horns and flshing the lights! Smucker's news two days ago is really illuminating -- they said so much as lots on new kcup (not Vue, kcup) competitors taking share, and while DNKN products going well and Folgers premium kcups going well, the less premium brands of Folgers kcups were flat ... FLAT! If you've read my posts over time, you know I like gmcr premium blends, but SBUX and PEET's italian and french roast pods are BETTER THAN GMCR's! That is a problem when competitors are no longer "marginal quality"... and they need these players in fold starting last year, not "hopefully" sometime later much when they have been trying to accomplish that for 18 months!
As for the short interest? Lots of it likely continues to be box shorts such as we put on to offset the core in the mid $80s after blowing out the trading sleeve at $88 -- see our posts from before and after the Sep 10 event for our thinking then (carbo huge).
So they need to solve the license fee bit. without that, the stock is likely to be kicked in the teeth by einhorn and others... and will need to wait for carbonation to gin up street interest.