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squeezetracker 276 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 13, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    (Part 2)
    However, Macau’s casino industry will not be as reliant on these big spenders over coming years as it is commonly perceived. Analysis by Goldman Sachs shows that while 56% of gross revenues in 2014 are expected to come from the VIP segment, which is most affected by the crackdown, only 22% of earnings before interest tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will come from this segment. Goldman expects that by 2016 less than 50% of revenues, and 16% of EBITDA, will come from the VIP market.

    The expansion of ‘mass market’ gambling is likely to underwrite the earnings growth of Macau’s casinos. Many operators have adopted a ‘build it and they will come’ mentality by increasing the number of tables aimed at everyday players in the hope of attracting more Chinese tourists to visit Macau. Despite the cool chill of Beijing’s crackdown, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Macau grew 11% year-on-year in the third quarter.

    The bid to attract more mass market players means an evolution in the experience that Macau will offer gamblers over coming years. This will see Macau become more like Las Vegas by developing integrated resorts, where customers can not only gamble but also enjoy other forms of entertainment. Eight integrated resorts under construction will double the casino operator’s hotel capacity over the next three years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The opening of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge in 2016 will connect Macau directly to Hong Kong International Airport, while the expansion of border crossing operating hours, with the eventual goal of 24 hour border crossings, could help grow visitor numbers.

    Henqin Island, in the Zhuhai Special Economic Zone and directly adjacent to Macau, is also ramping up non-gaming attractions which should draw more visitors...

  • Barron's (NOT Shuli Renn lol)

    Gaming revenues hurt by corruption crackdown, but worst appears priced in as new resorts drive earnings growth.

    Fortune has not smiled on Macau’s casino operators in 2014. The red-hot winning streak enjoyed by casino stocks in the only place that gambling is allowed in China has been brought to an end by Beijing’s crackdown on corruption and extravagant spending.

    The reversal of fortune has been stark. The Bloomberg Macau Gaming Market Index advanced a staggering 100% in 2013, but this year the gauge has tumbled around 40%. SJM Holdings ( 880.HK ), whose Grand Lisboa casino is the tallest building in Macau, has been the worst performer with a 53% decline. The unrelenting drive to quash corruption and extravagant spending has stemmed the flood of gamblers keen to test their luck at the tables. The architect of the crackdown, Chinese president Xi Jinping, arrived in the special administrative region on Friday for a two day visit to celebrate the 15-year anniversary of the handover of Macau to China.

    But the misfortune that has plagued Macau’s casino stocks may be the opportunity that risk hungry investors have been waiting for. Investors that have sold their positions in the big casino operators have expressed concerns about the drop in the number of deep-pocketed VIP bettors visiting Macau. It is little wonder investors are downbeat, as slower growth in gaming revenue at the start of the year has transformed into an outright decrease in gaming revenues as 2014 draws to a close.

    However, Macau’s casino industry will not be as reliant on these big spenders over coming years as it is commonly perceived. Analysis by Goldman Sachs shows (cont)

  • Reply to

    IMPORTANT Prelude to 2015 Table Allocations

    by squeezetracker Jan 9, 2015 9:47 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 10, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Leung Tac, the new finance chief, is not alone acknowledging that Macau's future will remain primarily about its "special status" as the only legal gaming venue for China.

    The chief exec from Macau in his annual report to Beijing and also China's second most powerful politician, premier Li Keqiang, have made it clear they understand gaming resorts are Macau's reason for being so prosperous and important to Hengqin and surrounds. Seem they are intent on keeping Macau going and striving for "modest diversification" too while remaining mindful that Macau is pricipally about gaming and traffic for Hengqin. Excerpts below from the comments in Beijing last week... my favorite was the parts about "promote moderate diversification" and later "appropriate diversification" in Macau. MPEL best in class on that score with HOD and Studio City IR coming soon.

    "Chinese premier voices support to HK, Macao development

    Premier Li Keqiang on Friday pledged continued support to the governments of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) and Macao SAR when meeting with leaders of the two regions.

    Leung Chun-ying, Hong Kong SAR chief executive, and Chui Sai On, Macao SAR chief executive, were in Beijing to report their work in 2014 to the central government...

    When meeting with Chui Sai On [Macau chief exec] separately, the premier praised what the SAR government has done in the past 15 years and urged them to seize new opportunities and promote moderate diversification of the Macao economy.

    Leung said the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme enhances Hong Kong's connection with the mainland and boosts Hong Kong's financial sector. He vowed to develop the economy, improve the quality of people's lives and push forward the development of the region's political system.

    Chui also thanked the central government for its support of his administration and vowed to improve the livelihood of Macao people and work hard for an appropriate diversification of Macao's economy."

  • Citi first call piece
     We expect Chinese product oil demand growth to improve in 2015, but for
    crude oil import growth to slow; thus, anyone hoping for China to drive a
    rebound in oil prices is likely to be disappointed – This report updates our
    Chinese oil forecasts published in China’s Thirst for Oil – Waning and Changing.
     Incomplete pass-through from crude prices to Chinese product oil prices –
    While Brent prices have declined around 50% since June, Chinese product oil
    prices have declined only 20-30%, significantly reducing the positive demand
    impact. However, prices are likely to continue falling in the first half of 2015 as lags
    in the system are overcome.
     Product oil demand growth to improve – We forecast growth of 390-k b/d (3.6%)
    in 2015, up from 240-k b/d (2.3%) in 2014. Lower oil prices could save China over
    1% of GDP on imports, helping boost consumption. We are not bullish on macro
    fundamentals, but passenger transportation (gasoline and kerosene) growth should
    be strong, and fuel oil demand is under less pressure due to only moderate teapot
    crude import quota expansions. Moreover, lagged impacts of lower prices could see
    2016 product demand growth at least as strong as in 2015.
     Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stockpiling to be stronger in 2015 – The
    main brake on SPR stockpiling has been a shortage of coastal storage facilities. In
    2015, up to five new facilities and 100m bbls of capacity are likely to open. The
    combination of low prices and these openings will likely see strong filling in 2015.
     Crude oil net import growth to slow – We expect crude oil net imports to increase
    by only 200-k b/d (3.3%) in 2015, significantly slower than the 504-k b/d (8.9%)
    increase in 2014. A slower build-out of refining capacity and record commercial
    storage builds in 2014 are likely to limit growth in 2015, balanced in part by SPR
    stockpiling and continued weak domestic crude production growth.
     Product oil trade flow trends

  • Consistent with their comments from last week and the raise of rating/PT on MPEL Monday, today MS emphasizes the 2H15 GGR "recovery" theme (on Galaxy 2 and MPEL's Studio City (phase 1) openings on Cotai Studio) and WYNN's new Palace opening in another 15 months and so raises WYNN back to buy and increases the PT to $190, saying the stock is stupid oversold and #$%$ cheap. Who'da thunk that? LOL

    As with MPEL's Packer and Ho view demonstrated by the serious share buyback activity (2% of outstanding shares in December alone on top of the 1% taken out at ~$27 in September) and the slew of 13F filers adding during the Sep Q and on through today, we agree with MS coming out of the naysayer group they joined (dropping their BUY rating and PT) in late July. LVS is cheap too, even MGM is cheap --but not compared to the MPEL, WYNN, LVS order on ebitda metrics.

    For those worried about our trades (LOL), including the guy we know using 10 aliases to thumb his posts up and others' down, we blew out the LVS trade; MPEL is the only allocation again pending the 4Q updates.

  • Reply to

    "A Man with a Vision - Macao Magazine"

    by squeezetracker Dec 9, 2014 11:53 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 9, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    bump for those who missed Leong Tac's perspectives in this seminal article...

    good to see this guy off to a GREAT start in terms of understaning Macau's "special edge/competence (gaming/leisure) and intellectual approach to encouraging development of more diversified offerings such as MPEL's Studio City and House of Dancing Water at COD.

  • Macau's new finance chief, Leong Tac, just shared some BIG news for the two new "casinos" opening on Macau this year. This is all entirely consistent with rapid approval/permits given to LVS last week and a very public acknowledgement that it is time to get back to business in Macau. As for 1H less growth rate than last year? Known and old news -- last February's yoy comp was 42%, and Xi Jinping's arrest of Zhou (i.e., severity of "crackdown"/going after political enemies) was not known until last week of July -- and still ~80% of VIP continues (ex the weaker small junkets and questionable/squeamish players to be sure). Further, Jinping's visit is over (no damage done) and the CNY celebration crowds will be there next month, with this "golden week" ex the Hong Kong umbrella distraction.

    GGR recovery to start in 2H2015 at earliest: Macau govt

    Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance Lionel Leong Vai Tac (pictured) on Friday said that the city’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) was unlikely to return to year-on-year expansion until the second half of 2015.

    He called the ongoing downturn “an adjustment period”.

    Mr Leong said the GGR decline was “positive” as it could give the industry breathing room to promote a more sustainable development model for the long run.

    “Because we are now facing an adjustment period in the gaming sector, we don’t expect casino revenue for the first two quarters of 2015 to be similar to the same prior-year period,” Mr Leong said in comments broadcast by Radio Macau.

    He added that growth could return in the second half of 2015, triggered by the opening of new casino developments on Cotai. Still, Mr Leong called for “prudent” expectations.

    Macau’s two 2015 openings – both officially scheduled for mid-year – are Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd’s Galaxy Macau Phase 2 and that for Melco Crown Enterainment Ltd’s majority-owned Studio City.

    Mr Leong declined to provide estimates for GGR performance in 2015.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 8, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    Doug (toast/drjackcar and what else?)

    My "glass house"? I use "Eddie" only for quasi-confidential email purposes and never posted anything about MPEL under any other alias. My partner stopped posting on yhoo, incl this board, back in 2012 as mentioned here a few times since. Unlike you, I don't give anyone bs grief (as you have tried to do to me here under an unknown number of aliases including "toast" repeatedly) unless they try to tool on or discredit me first and repeatedly. You have done that now in spades., ironically asking me not to tool on you with your "ad hominem" bs. You'll have great difficulty finding anywhere my comments are deliberately deceptive, underhanded or misleading -- those are obviously specialties of yours. Talk about "F hypocrite"...

    You had me duped as to your Shirley Mason leanings until you started trying to dis me under "toast" -- that's the thanks I get for giving you requested info on SWKS? And doug, you really sukk at debate as well as dissing and now reveal your real colors. Crazy to think you think it is worthwhile trying to dupe retail holders to sell out shares here at the bottom when, as I have noted many times, this is a dark pool algo/heavy volume stock... one where retail trades don't mean "jack."

    But hey, while we are having fun, other than your "toast" and "drjackcar" handles here and on sites including IKGH, SWKS and SUNE where you post back and forth to yourself, I now wonder how many other aliases you use here. Thinking about it, now that you shown your colors, I wouldn't be surprised if you were blaqnite,dthe98,mytek, tahoejack, idiotpumper, fyimbecile, fynyc, janetate (with her Bain report access that you said "doesn't show up much"), and all of the other deliberately diversionary and intentionally offensive aliases that guy uses... like I've said, "tony" is a joy in comparison, and actually has some relevant posts.

    Alas, integrity must be a real #$%$ when one doesn't have it... even shaving must suk.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 8, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    MPEL and LVS in particular do not depend on GGR getting back to positive growth as you continue to suggest on both aliases... what will matter over time is ebitda progress. On that relevant scoreboard, MPEL is singularly situated this year.

    but, along with the einsteins paying Shirley Mason (aka darknite, idiotpumper, fynyc, fyimbecile,mytek, tahoejack... wait... is all of those you? LOL) stay short here as a "nut dice and fry" pair trade to go with your IKGH long. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 8, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    Those listening to Lawrence ho's comments on the Sep Q CC and other wise paying attention here and or with proprietary analysis from advisory work done in macau -- so including all the 13F filers adding this Q and on the early january selloff of the broad market -- with a little bit of comprehension already know this dynamic. See the MPEL transcript from last Q for details of their plans... and clearly others running properties in Macau are now following MPEL's lead to enable smoking areas for high rollers.

    Here's what I pointed out about MPEL's mass gaming revenue INCREASING in October and November back on Dec 15th right here:

    "... comments are entirely consistent with MPEL's mass gaming revenue (adj for the table swap from mass to vip for premium which data is now cluttered for the next few reports on MPEL and likely others) up YOY in both October and November... but anyone who has followed MPEL with any real work knows VIP is not the focus [of their] superb execution anyway."

    So those who can process information understand that MPEL is not being crunched on VIP or mass, even though following Ho's reset on mass expectations for the group (to half the ytd run rate) and saying VIP would not get back to growing well until 2H15) the loud analystsrepeating their doom and gloom every week for Shuli and Detar like wonderboy McKnight, I is Wong, and Karen Twang keep on saying all the casinos were hosed in 4Q and, now...will be all throughout 2015. Everyone listening to those three should be short as many shares of MPEL, WYNN, LVS and MGM as their margin account and leverage lines will permit. LOL

    Again, the entire group is ridiculously oversold down here, but MPEL has the most transformational footprint expansion underway f2years (Manila, SC, Tower 5 and then phase 2 of Manila and SC to follow) which means they have a massive room count bump just ahead -- and ebitda leverage that is woefully undiscounted... even if "adjusted" VIP is down next year.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 8, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    Doug,
    You've already demonstrated a lack of integrity here by using at least this and the other alias and on IKGH and SUNE, but are you now you trying to completely destroy your value as a quality poster on relevant topics here under both of the aliases? Your post I am replying to now sounds as stupid as one from putz breath blaqnite .. you know, Mr "I see value and bought at $25 (first position") followed by trying to dis me with a 90 iq and saying he'll "buy at $17 when it gets there" -- exactly at the busted retest of the July 2013 low LOL).

    yes, here it sounds like you are talking about yourself (doctor ironic?) with "puthimon" calling you out on the IKGH board as that went from $10 to $1 as VIP has faded, to wit:

    puthimon:
    "Where are ... DrJackOff, David Bain, and the rest today to discuss why the new 52-week low and good volume is a positive and demonstates a stock on the way to $6 or $17?"

    Fun huh? But to your "articulate" points here:

    1. All of the bs noise has been just that , crimping MPEL less than any other company as 95% of ebitda has been from non-VIP sources. And still !~80% of VIP continues despite the real issue, Xi Jinping chasing political enemies out of not just VIP tours, but China itself. That really did no set in for ANYONE, including the group CEOs or ANY OF THE ANALYSTS until early august 2014.

    2. This stock has already ripped 24% in days from the Dec 17 low and the context of my view of the future for MPEL is that as discounting of ebitda coming from Manila and SC will push the stock on the stock back to outperforming the group even without VIP recovery (i.e., above the !80% that continues on macau).

    3. Again GGR trend to mid teens is not needed for a sharp run higher and sustainably so.

    4. The recent 24% jump backed to mid teens -- but are you having fun today?

    5. Wrong on mpel? We've huge gains on mpel and hedged drops since 09 and suggested same timing often here. You must mean your losses on IKGH and SUNE?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 7, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    and speaking of entertainment and cork soakers, how about that darqnite putz...

    On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value", then he tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL

    "blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
    0users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
    I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here

    He invites abuse and is some cork soaker all right. He also has and hetrouble keeping track of all of those known aliases from over there in Thailand. From his “sheethead" posts reveling in the bs of the HK Post nonsense article last month (as in here where his aliases all come toigether saying the same bs on the same threads), he reminds us that the multitude includes: blaqnite, sheetwise, fckanyc, fkuimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, tahoedipshite, and I forget the other 4 or 5... Funny and ironic as hell this putz says our allocations are phantom when, as a few here know, we actually understand money management, taking/hedging risk and all of that.

    It gets funnier...On December 17th, he suggested (right at the retest of the completed head and shoulders but successful bounce at the July 2013 low for MPEL, LVS and WYNN I discussed that day) that this is almost down to where he'd buy it at $17. That’s our basis on the core alright — excluding numerous hedging gain offsets and all of the trading gains taken out since 2011 (many discussed right here as they were done) that have reduced our “economic basis" to below zero on the core. LOL. Yet his lame post reminded me that he had a previous post on where you bought the stock. Back on November 6th, he shared this stupidity with the stock at $25. Funny as hell this moron says my trades are phantom when as a few here know, that is "not exactly” our story.

    "Almost at your 17... my buy price... you can call me names when i buy...lol" RTFLOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    Douglas douglas douglas (get it?) -- I do...

    More ad hominem bs directed at me (this alias only?) talk about ironic while you tell me not to "attack" your attempts to dis me.

    The "gun" that we have stuck by on this story is that MPEL has the (i) best biz plan, (ii) top adj ebitda and win per table, (iii) biggest expansion from now through Tower 5 opening, (iv) Manila, worth more than your dismissal of it, and (v) brighter days ahead.

    Our "optimism" is that all of that is correct. Moreover, we don't think the sky is falling on China or Macau, nor do we agree with you that the stock won't possibly recover until VIP and GGR are running significantly higher in YOY terms -- the 24% rally over 9 days in December showed that, right up until McKnight publishes that GR will not be anything other than negative yoy throughout 2015 and guys like you and Detar with IBD conflate market events, currency concerns and panic oil pricing with Macau prospects.

    As for the rally, on at least three separate posts you try to dis me by saying the "sharp rally" has faded... again, conflation aside, I called it a sharp rally because 24% is a lot in 9 days. On the same thread I emphasized it can easily retrace. I also said the Dec results were dreadful on X's visit -- old news.

    As for being "touchy?" LOL Here you confuse my willingness to call out your bs coyness here with being "touchy." You apparently don't recall or understand the many times we've shared right here (and otherwise as you know "Douglas") that we have hedged the core and trading positions many times since January 2014, including at $43, reload at $37.50, sale of trading slug again at $43 in March and so on... yet while you may have read those posts, you must not have processed or understood what terms like "box hedge", paired trade (offset shorts on WYNN, LVS and MGM at varied levels) and for the different reasons often shared right here, or writing option premium for the monkeys. Been at this awhile...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    doug,
    As for ad hominem comments... mine are not that -- yours were precisely that as they have been under this alias you use for several months. Go back and read them as well as my retorts when you have done so. My replies to your comments directed at me have not been disrespectful or full of angst directed at you (you comments don't p#$%$ those filters) -- I've tried mightily to reserve stomping for putzes are attacking me prior to stuffing themselves away on ignore.

    Like it or not, your "observation" above read like an insecure smart #$%$ comment trying to dis me which is why I laid out the very specific and detailed reply pointing out how hollow your comment was.

    And same applies to your last comment... Did you read my reply? It answers your question in spades. My perspectives have been entirely consistent; MS' have not. MS, as with essentially the entire group, went from positive for way too long, to negative too late, and now has some redemption potential by getting back to constructive/positive on the group before the stocks light it up -- likely to be followed, belatedlly, if past is prologue, in getting back to positive, by the "brilliant" pack of dunces following this sector. That is the "legitimate" observation of my views on the nalayst group and MS turning back to positive early and in time -- and obviously ahead of the group.

    doug, I don't care if you don't like my comments -- put me on ignore if you want... but when you repeatedly try to dis me and now extend that to try to tell me what to write or not, if i see it and have time, you are likely to get a reply discussing what I really think of that entitlement as done here.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    re the 2014 PT comment above, to be clear, that was the published level and generally about the f12m target in early August. That may prove to be a good estimate of where things get to assuming china's conversion continues well and the sky does not collapse on their economy...

    MPEL is easily the best positioned company over the next two years in terms of transformational footprint/ebitda change coming as a company in total... Moody's C+ students don;t get it... but Moran's analyst group has come away from the darkness now. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    continued

    as a group even after MPEL's Ho said VIP would not be back to positive growth until 2H15, and that mass GR growth would be more like half the 30%+ rate seen ytd following the third Q. Still 2/3s of them retained their buys, and only then did the consensus target for 2014 drop to below $50 ($49 then).

    Then too, they were, as a group, entirely wrong-headed on saying that "Vegas resurgence" made all the Vegas names a far better place to make a bet on gaming stocks. We made fun of that too...and following the big drop off in august (-12% tables games yoy and now negative for the year despite the big head fake bump in may and June), we see that Vegas is back to blue hair bus tours and flat slots/neg table games growth.

    There is the history... the "analysts" have generally sukkked on turning points. What is not discussed is that Bain has remained steadfast in his enthusiasm and while he has been too optimistic near term, we give him credit for having some balls and conviction. As for the Morgan Stanley group? Hat is off top them for their comments last Friday and detailed first call report update today -- nothing has changed at all about Macau influencing our view except for Jinping leaving without damaging the macau franchises further and the new regime making it clear they are going to move with authority to get things done as seen on LVS' approvals granted within a week of being seated, and closer now to SC and Manila openings!

    But today Morgan Stanley has drawn a line in the sand that sentiment is too negative, things are soon going to be far more constructive as to sentiment, and the new projects coming on line will be a powerful catalyst toward Macau GR growth restoration. Time to buy they say... we agree, even if the light volume selling continues for another day or lucky 13... but anyone selling down here on "december weakness" (conflated with market events) you have posted on many times is not paying attention.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    doug,

    Not sure what you sound like on this alias other than someone either wetting his pants because he is long -- or really short and trying to be coy while just sounding insecure at every post... but it is one or the other of late.

    Getting past the bs of your comment, here is a recap of what I think and have said about the analysts following this group for years -- i.e., other than David Bain whose reports you have shared here over time.

    Excluding Bain, the analysts on the gaming stocks have almost entirely entirely missed every important turn in group direction... for YEARS!

    As we've noted on LVS, WYNN, MPEL and MGM boards over the last 5+ years, this analyst group missed the collapse in 2008/09 (e.g., having uniform BUYS on MGM at $98), they missed the turn on MGM at $2 back to the teens before returning to $9 and then back to the high teens before getting bullish. They missed the Macau stocks rallying from the lows in early 2009 (e.g., double plus on MPEL). Then they missed the strong rally from 2010 through summer 2011 (to 16+ on MPEL and $70 on LVS), and again in 2012, and they completely missed that late Fall of 2012 was a GREAT time to load heavily on all of these names. They also missed the pullback from $25 to $21 on MPEL in July 2013 being another great time to add, and they were not nearly bullish enough on the group as it more than doubled through january of 2014 - remember? Right when I suggested, at $43 on MPEL and above $80 on LVS, that some might want to consider selling and or hedging some of the easy money gains that had already been made?

    A month later many issued "big concerns" after january 2012 GGR was soft (7% GGR growth after teens in the preceding several months as all the new product came on to Cotai) just in time for February's 40% GGR growth number and sending the stocks back to the january highs and renewed/reupped PTs to a consensus of $58 for 2014.

    They also missed the March double top, and didn't pull "buys" ratings con

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    Studio City is going to soon be the premier showcase place of an entertainment themed property on Macau... almost a joke that Moody's has the debt structure under review -- as if MPEL and its partner are not going to bring the project to fruition and positive cash flow in a hurry once opened. For that to happen, one must expect Macau to go up in flames first, unlikely given that unlike Vegas, 80% of VIP remains intact and overall GGR is still running at solid levels and may soon begin to show signs of progress as MS suggests.

    If VIP and so GGR remain subdued in Macau, Moody's will soon place all of the Macau names ratings under review and, based on both COD and Studio City's lack of reliance on VIP, MPEL arguably fare better on ebitda than any other company there. Your favorite Macau name, LVS, has more to lose than any other company in Macau unless the stocks begin discounting GGR turning around quickly as Morgan Stanley is now suggesting...

    Separate from the SC debt funding structure (which Moody's has blessed twice prior), MPEL was singled out this morning by Morgan Stanley on the Studio City and Manila catalysts to the upside on ebitda... and while MS gives a tip of the hat to WYNN's Palace coming on line in 2016, they might have noted that MPEL's iconic Tower 5 at COD is going up now and will be opened in early 2017 -- that Tower will be 100% about premium mass -- no VIP cage rooms.

  • Reply to

    north of the 50 dma

    by toast22342000 Dec 29, 2014 11:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    doug,
    Get a copy of the Morgan Stanley report from this morning's first call piece... seems MS may be finding their courage and wits and after fielding a few calls from 13F filers (and letting key clients finish covering box shorts). LOL

    Interesting to think that after pulling their BUY ratings on Macau stocks in august, they may now be "early" enough calling the turn on Macau names to avoid round 3 of being late and drunk to the party.
    Conflating broader market events with December GGR results in Macau while the "Linus blanket" clouding the landscape in the form of Xi Jinping's visit is right up there with reading last month's newspaper...

    As noted prior a retest of the July 2013 low is still possible given the global "trickiness" prior to the start of earnings season, but increasingly unlikely as even the analysts and Shuli are now beginning to talk about the worm turning in Macau.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 6, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    3 pages in between that intro and concluding with MPEL comments:

    "We upgrade MPEL to OW: Our call is driven mainly by attractive valuation and supply increase (Philippines in December 2014 and Studio City in September 2015). MPEL could also raise its dividend if overseas opportunities such as Japan are delayed and the restricted cash becomes available.

    We expect interest expense to decline over the medium term if it refinances existing borrowings.

    Wynn Macau could see the worst 4Q EBITDA decline (-27% QoQ) among peers, but we expect recovery in 2015, driven by refreshed product and more tables before Chinese New Year 2015. We expect the company to show a significant increase in table/room in 1H16 from Wynn Palace, which could be the best product in Macau."

    WRT the last comment on WYNN, they meant toss up between the Palace and coming tower 5 at MPEL's COD. LOL

GOOG
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