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squeezetracker 245 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2015 3:50 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 7:37 AM Flag

    Hey Dave,
    We look forward to the update... glad to have you, crjms and the 4-5 other longtimers here to make the board worthwhile and offer up real perspective vs intentionally deceptive bs and counterpoint to the dippy media and analysts' biases. Looking forward to far brighter days ahead for Macau and Manila -- and MPEL in particular.

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 7:34 AM Flag

    Jim,
    Prior to my comments yesterday, how many "analysts" or media outlets have pointed out this caendar effect this year? If you guessed none, zero, then you are correct. If you begin to see a few begin to make this point over the next few days, you'll have further insight that several of them -- along with exec management and IR of these companies and more than a few portfolio managers are monitoring these sites (even the LVS mess, and maybe even lvsforum). Sometimes you can lead a horse to water and he will drink; others times "bricking the #$%$" does the trick.

    On this board, "toast" (called out by "puthimon" here and on the IKGH board) as being one and the same poster calling himself a multitude of aliases here and on IKGH as well as other boards, is also drjackcar, JaneTate, dthe98, brinerbriner and at least a handful of other aliases) has several recurrent themes but is currently emphasizing the YOY drop in the first week of February as if it is going to be an unmitigated disaster for Macau and MPEL (and other cos). Although keeping track of his different "personalities" has caught up with him as those paying attention have now connected the dots in these forums, he continues to use many of the old ones and is now adding new aliases, the better to carry on his now trademark conversations with himself.

    Shirley Mason's posting makes it clear he is either personally short or being paid to spin that bias. On his JaneTate "glad to finally be short here" post, he makes the point himself. dth98's flailings here and on the WYNN board are equally transparent. In total, Shirley's posting, and makes a great case that yahoo should allow only one alias per board. That change would be the single biggest thing yhoo could do to improve their product, and make it so morons could not sign in 9 times to post thumbs up or down on posts at odds with their agenda. On that last point, if one uses the thumbs to screen, use the sum of up & down thumbs. LOL

  • Reply to

    not so great

    by toast22342000 Feb 9, 2015 8:57 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Funniest Part: "VIP is "on life support after 16% of junkets closed in 2014." Still the 10 largest junkets control 80% of VIP peak, and still those guys are all operating in compliance with the rules and do not have any witchhunt or even Foxhunt chasing them.... Not that VIP really matters to MPEL in Macau for much these days, but they are catering to a few big tours at Altira. As for all the little S junkets? They are gone from Macau and didn;t matter to MPEL anyway... BFD

  • Reply to

    not so great

    by toast22342000 Feb 9, 2015 8:57 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    The young lady who wrote that "Business Insider" is even weaker than Shuli Renn! and here is the rest of the incredibly weak sauce repeats rehashing the same old bs noise that Shuli must have covered at least 20x as if it was "new" every time.

    But you know better Shirley JaneTate and all the rest of yous... it is VIP in the marginal tours "missing" from GGR on Macau, NOT the big 10 tours controlling 80% or so of Macau VIP play, NOT visitation or gaming by mass players. So here you hack out the bs dthe98 (another Shirley Mason registrant) spewed about solicitation of mainlanders as if that is new and leave out all this blithering poo? Read my shout down of the bs there. ROTFLOL

    For everyone other than Shirley, on that predicate, read what this dip stick from Bus Insider wrote over the weekend. Should have titled it "The Sky is Falling as told by Shuli Renn 37 times and now here again as if relevant to the future of Macau."

    "And Chinese gamblers apparently won't be going to Macau as much to gamble, either. Xi's government has sworn to cut down on advertisements — sometimes in the form of annoying text messages — promoting Macau casinos. Visa restrictions will tighten, according to analysts, and even retail gamblers will have their money tracked as officials monitor UnionPay, the only domestic bank card in mainland China.

    The latest announcement goes above and beyond the pain Xi's administration has already put Macau's casinos, and the world's casino companies, through over the past year. The president's anticorruption crackdown has slowed the movement of mainlanders to the island — the world's largest gambling center — dramatically.

    Gaming revenue in Macau contracted for the first time since foreign companies were allowed to do business on the island in 2002. It plummeted 30% in December alone. The junket system, Macau's financing system for high rollers most affected by the anticorruption drive, is on life support after 16% of junkets closed in 2014."

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    Two more points...

    Even dismissing the offline/refurb parts of the WYNN property down on the Penninsular (they have no Cotai property until the Palace opens mid 2016 they say now) ,those with a little bit of comprehension of the difference between WYNN.LVS and MPEL's business plans and execution last year certainly expected WYNN to fare poorly vs LVS given that the vast brunt of the GGR drop has been from the smaller junkets getting clobbered out of business or going where they have less scrutiny over their operations and clients, and the chilling effects the noise and corruption crackdowns on macau have had on VIP play there.

    On this note, MPEL's COD on Cotai is the only company that ran at 100% occupancy throughout 2014, with a 30-40% average turnaway rate. We also know they have continued to further de-emphasize VIP at COD, meaning that the VIP slowdown has crimped MPEL's overall revenue and, far more importantly, overall ebitda far less than WYNN and even LVS. Old news, but MPEL likely ran on the order of 90% of its ebitda from mass and adjusted (for smoking rooms) premium mass play (direct credit players).

    Looking forward to more color on COD manila come Thursday too... Ho has said a few things the analyst community is not yet taking note of, including that COD Manila is "already exceeding our expectations" and that he expects Manila overall to exceed the Philippine gaming regulator's forecast of GGR for 2016 and that COD Manila will add more than another 1/3+ to that baseline forecast. Do your own math on what that means to MPEL, but if Ho is correct, every analyst out there will be increasing their estimates for COD MPEL before long...

  • To clarify for those who don't know, the 1-2 week lull before the annual CNY celebrations were in January last year because the CNY fell on Friday, January 31,2014. This also at least partially explained why jan. 2014 GGR growth of 7% was soft enough for the weaker analysts to lower estimates and ratings saying Macau GGR growth trend of mid teens% was over, precipitating the drop in the secotr during Feb with MPEL going from $45 back to $37 as chronicled here.

    Longtimers know that set up the buzzsaw of February's GGR growth of 42% YOY due to the full month og GGR falling after the CNY, the crescendo ramp of LVS' new properties on the Cotai Strip, and no Beijing Foxhunt or Tigers and Flies crackdown yet announced, no shady VIP killed off or chill effect yet, nor any roof jumpers/shut down private clubs, or any of the other, less meaningful "noise" (e.g., unauthorized Unionpay card swipes, smoking bans, visa restrictions not understood, Hong Kong Unbrella protest, 25th anniversary Tianamen square observance, World Cup games, Vegas houses pulling VIP tours to Vegas for April through June, and then Zhou arrest making the real statement that crooks are done absconding with illicitly obtained PRC funds, whether they were off to Macau or anywhere else.

    This year the CNY falls on February 19th. That means the lull before the CNY celebrations begin is going to be entirely in Feb's run up to the 19th. In context, the combined effects of the lack of new properties coming on line over the last 18 months, the 1-2 week "lull" shift ahead of the CNY and lapping of the big big comp from Feb 2014 means the February numbers vs last year will be tough.

    Some may want to think thru whether a tough Feb comp is a good reason to sell out Macau names ahead of the catalysts coming right up now in the form of Macau having a very wholesome, cleaned up act, new properties coming on line in '15 incl MPEL's Studio City and mass visitation and play running solid despite all the bs.

  • DreamWorks opens first indoor theme park in City of Dreams Manila
    goog title for cool pics and article

    February 7, 2015 1:44pm

    Kids and the kids at heart can soon learn how to fly a dragon and cook some cookies with Gingy at DreamWorks DreamPlay, the animation studio's indoor theme park at the newly-opened City of Dreams Manila.

    Dubbed by Gist.Ph as DreamWork's first theme park in the world, the interactive play space offers attractions from its various animated franchises, themed activities, and even 4D theaters.

    Munchkins wishing to learn kung #$%$ with The Furious Five and Po can climb the Vertical Wall of Awesomeness and tackle Shi#$%$'s Training Hall.

    Fans of How To Train Your Dragon can become a dragon rider with How To Fly Your Dragon, while those more fond of ancient reptiles can try fixing a few dinosaurs with the DinoTrux Repair Game.

    Shrek fans can help the grumpy ogre grab his keys after stomping through his swamp, but if hiking seems too bothersome, then the Penguins of Madagascar would gladly accept help in building a new boat.

    After a long day of play, parents and kids can eat at the DreamWorks Cafe or even hold a party at themed private rooms fit for 70 persons.

    DreamWorks DreamPlay will open its doors in March. — Rie Takumi/VC, GMA News

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 7, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    If you are long and missed this important update from MPEL's CEO amongst the diversionary bs posts here, goog the article and enjoy this very bullish update from Lawrence -- shared just one week ahead of their quarterly conference call this coming Thursday... Ho is telegraphing that sellside analyst estimates for what he and co-chairman Packer think they can accomplish in Manila are seriously too low.

    Gee, maybe these two billionaires know a little bit more than the naysayers? LOL

    They may not be ready just yet to discuss more forward news, but soon we'll be learning more about MPEL's plans for a new Manila tower (on twice as much land they have adjacent to the current COD footprint) of iconic proportion and architecture... same for Studio City Phase 2 (with plan for more rooms than the "initial phase" as the MPEL lleads the way toward the "new normal" on Macau.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 7, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    The illicit transfer of funds is just that... perhaps you can explain what your other aliases never have here: How do you gamble $1B, losing 3% to the house and somehow "illegally transfer" that $1B out of Macau? Hint: the $1B is NEVER TRANSFERRED ANYWHERE!

    And, some might realize, the Macau government keeps some 40% of the house win in the form of gaming taxes, say nothing of taxes and fees on food, retail sales, visas, Unionpay transfers, bank profitability, etc.

    But c'mon man, tell us all a funny story -- your expalnation of how "a [money laundering] corrupt guy can move a billion YMB by gambling with these guys." We can all use a good laugh while we wait for the Macau names to further quash the shorts and then keep on going on improving infrastructure projects, business fundamentals and conciliatory progress from local and Beijing policies in support of Macau and Hengqin's economic development.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 7, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    You are a persistent joker to be sure, but your assertion is NOT news or new -- it has long been illegal to solicit mainland players to foreign casinos.

    And, unlike your increbily ironic, endless bs and name calling here, Grant Govertson is knowledgeable about gaming, lives in macau, and knows what he is talking about. And while you are a name calling joker likely sourcing your narrow political biases and "analysis" of the world by watching Fox broadcasts (LOL), Grant is not a "young kid" having "no clue"... neither are the Morgan Stanley and now even Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse and also Deutsche bank analyst teams now suggesting it is time to own these stocks again -- days, weeks or months? as I wrote a few weeks ago -- before the stocks begin discounting a brighter 2H and future for Macau. Fun to point out MPEL is up some 20% from the recent double bottom low.

    Those who want to read the antithesis of what dthe98 asserts here can see the article copied in ggrasia for just that:

    Crackdown on casino marketing in China not [NOT!] policy change: CS
    Feb 06, 2015
    Reports that China is having a “crackdown” on foreign casinos that try to set up marketing operations in mainland China is not a departure from the country’s existing policy, said a note from Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong on Friday. There have been signs for several months that high stakes...

  • There is no new "crackdown," but despite the nonsense postings of the multialias jokers here, Beijing's "corruption crackdown" (and international "Foxhunt") is not about Macau or gambling; rather, it is about the pursuit of enemies of Jingping's regime and others who have illegally confiscated PRC wealth and transferred those illicitly obtained funds away from China.

    Those shouting nonsense on many multiple aliases such as dthe98s "VIP is gone and never coming back," even though 70-80% of total Macau VIP play is controlled by the 10 largest operators and has never gone away, simply have no idea what they are talking about. The "billions" wagered are not being transferred anywhere, only the net house win (through junkets or directly) is being "transferred" to Macau and the subject resorts via totally legal, uncontested payments that are reviewed (not new) by Beijing and Macau banks, regulators and security people working for the PRC. The rules compliant VIP tours operating within the established Beijing rules continue to do just that. Only crooks dumb enough to steal money from a junket or illegally taking bribes engage in targeted "illicit transfers" and they are being hunted and prosecuted. The top 10 junkets controlling the meaningful VIP tours in Macau today continue to conduct their business within the rules and have NEVER been prosecuted for anything "ILLICIT," nor have any of the principals been taken down for fraud.

    The mandate out of Beijing is clear: Gaming will always be what Leonel Tac, the new finance secretary calls "Macau's edge" or special purpose and competence, but while that will always be the key driver of Macau's economy, employment, tax revenues and underpinning for Macau and Hengqin and surrounds, they want new resorts to continue to develop alternative attractions to encourage international and mainlander tourism for the benefit of commerce growth for China and Macau.

    MPEL is doing exactly that with COD and especially Studio City.

  • goog title for yesterday's L A Times article and photos of COD -- this thread was deleted too? great service this yhoo. LOL

    Article:
    If your idea of a "dream city" includes a massive gambling casino, a Nobu Hotel and nightclubs developed by Michael Ault, head to the Philippines.

    That's where you'll find City of Dreams, a casino-entertainment resort created by Melco Crown Entertainment in Manila that opened Tuesday. Fireworks, celebrities (Kelly Rowland and Ne-Yo walked the red carpet) and high rollers of the corporate kind welcomed guests to the new $1-billion site.

    NeYo
    Ne-Yo performs Tuesday at the opening of City of Dreams Manila. (Graham Uden / PR Newswire)
    The mega-casino's sleek glass towers surround a huge golden egg, called the Fortune Egg, which creators hope will become a city landmark.

    City of Dreams in Parañaque along Roxas Boulevard is part of a much bigger Entertainment City that's intended to go up against popular global gambling venues such as Macau, Singapore and Las Vegas. When completed, it will feature four casino complexes.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that the Philippines' gaming agency predicts gambling revenues of $10 billion a year by the end of the decade -- outpacing Las Vegas and Singapore.

    Back to City of Dreams. The egg will house two nightclubs, Pangaea (there are several, including one in Singapore) and Chaos.

    There's an entertainment bar with live performances on the casino floor, three hotels -- Crown Towers, Nobu Hotel and Hyatt City of Dreams Manila -- and dining options from Nobu as well as the Crystal Dragon, which specializes in Chinese dishes to woo top gamblers from China.

    Shopping runs to luxury brands such as Hugo Boss, Montblanc, Rolex and Roberto Cavalli. An interactive entertainment play space designed by DreamWorks will open later this year.

    Info: Dream City

  • host deleted the original post without a link? goofy

    Goog title in quotes to see a great article from bloomberg discussing why MPEL's billionaire CEO and his co chairman Packer (another billionaire) are telling the world COD Manila is poised to be a whole lot more successful than the street is modeling so far -- for 2015, but particularly in 2016.

    In the article, Ho shares that he thinks MPEL "could get to profitable this year" (2015). That is big big news for MPEL. Those doing any kind of modeling should begin to figure out that means they see significantly more ebitda than any publishing analyst is modeling for Manila, as that means they see sufficient revenue coming to cover non-cash items, the big opex number and debt carry as well as gaming taxes and the partnership sharing. Ho also shares the brightening framework for what he thinks the property can do for 2016... great stuff.

    For longs, it should be fun to hear some details on this topic on the earnings call update next week .

    Also see the new articles from the LA Times and the Manila paper today. Great stuff about: "it's more fun here" [in Manila because taxes are significantly less than in Macau, says Lawrence.

  • MANILA - The second licensee to open a casino resort at the Entertainment City of state-run Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor) plans to cross-market the newly-opened facility to its customers in Macau.

    During the grand opening of the City of Dreams Manila, Melco Crown Philippines Resorts Corporation president Clarence Chung said the new casino will provide an additional choice to overseas customers.

    "With our very strong connections and the customer base we have in Macau, we will promote and cross market this property to our customers," Chung said.

    Melco is the only Pagcor licensee that also operates in Macau, considered the biggest gaming destination in the world.

    "It's more fun here," Lawrence Ho, co-chairman of Melco Crown Entertainment said during the launch, as tax rates in the Philippines are lower than in Macau.

    "The vision was always to find the greatest locations in Asia to build integrated resorts. We’ve been very selective. Other than Macau, the Philippines has been the first place that we decided to go into," Ho, son of gaming mogul Stanley Ho, said in a press conference held today in Chaos, one of the night clubs of City of Dreams Manila.

    "It's no wonder that the Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies anywhere in the world in the last few years. We've definitely seen the market really pick up. And we think this market, in terms of tourism, and overall economy in the Philippines, just consumer spending, is going to be consistently on the rise going forward," Ho...

    Chung said the Philippines caters not only to the Chinese market, but also to a diverse mix of foreign tourists.

    "I can see tourism growing hugely in the Philippines," Melco co-Chairman J

  • original post without a link? goofy

    Goog title in quotes to see a great article from bloomberg discussing why MPEL's billionaire CEO and his co chairman Packer (another billionaire) are telling the world COD Manila is poised to be a whole lot more successful than the street is modeling so far -- for 2015, but particularly in 2016.

    In the article, Ho shares that he thinks MPEL "could get to profitable this year" (2015). That is big big news for MPEL. Those doing any kind of modeling should begin to figure out that means they see significantly more ebitda than any publishing analyst is modeling for Manila, as that means they see sufficient revenue coming to cover non-cash items, the big opex number and debt carry as well as gaming taxes and the partnership sharing. Ho also shares the brightening framework for what he thinks the property can do for 2016... great stuff.

    For longs, it should be fun to hear some details on this topic on the earnings call update next week .

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 5, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    City of Dreams Manila may account for about 26 percent of the nation’s $4.36 billion in projected gambling revenue by 2016, Macquarie estimates. The property could exceed that projection by 2016, and add one third to the Philippine gaming market, Ho said today.
    The Philippines betting industry is expanding to meet regional demand after Macau and Singapore successfully built resorts that combine luxury hotels, shopping, entertainment and gambling.
    Tourism will “grow hugely” in the Philippines, James Packer, Melco Crown co-chairman, said today in Manila...
    Philippine gaming revenues could reach $4.8 billion by 2017 when three of Entertainment City’s four casinos are running, according to Macquarie. City of Dreams Manila and a $500 million expansion completed in November by Solaire, the district’s first resort, will help lift revenue to $3.94 billion this year from about $2.98 billion in 2014, it said.
    “The potential gaming revenue of the Philippines is probably massively understated,” said Julian Tarrobago, who holds casino shares as fund manager ATR Kim Eng Asset Management Inc. “Las Vegas, Macau, Singapore exceeded original expectations. The same could happen in the Philippines. This market’s international leg is just getting built.”
    City of Dreams Manila had drawn more than 600,000 visitors since it began operations on Dec. 14, according to Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corp., operator of the 6.2 hectare complex and unit of Hong Kong’s Melco Crown. The resort attracted [30,000] visitors on its first day, it said."

    btw, Ho's comment that Manila "could be profitable this year" means they see ebitda of substantially more than any published estimates are carrying for COD Manila this year. Do the math and grin (i.e., to do that they need to cover run rate opex and 15% gaming taxes) if you are long the shares. Also good to see the group "greening up" again today on WYNN's [not so] "bad" news yesterday.

  • Reply to

    The "bad news" is not all that bad for WYNN

    by squeezetracker Feb 4, 2015 12:07 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 5, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    looks like the street is beginning to figure it out.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 4, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    The best part of WYNN's news is to think through that the aspects of their story that are solid these days are about, as Ho has said, the flattery of others now copying MPEL's strategy to emphasize mass as the future of Macau.

    Looking forward to MPEL's refreshed outlook on feb 12th and learning how Manila is going so far...

  • Reply to

    This is about to fall off a cliff

    by jane_tate Feb 4, 2015 1:21 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 4, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    That is one lame ashhh "analysis" by this Shirley Mason guy. Just to stomp on the bs, despite WYNN's 40% falloff in VIP january YOY, Steve told us that mass is up 26% YOY, and profits are up some 15% YOY for the month... clearly it ain't about just the hold as Steve discussed, its the mass volume surging as rooms for them come available and corresponding mass margins WYNN is now pursuing -- and MPEL has a 2 year head start on. And jane, jane, jane (funny huh) it already fell off the cliff, twice, and is now clawing its way back up... but you just think, if it drops another buck you can cover in without a loss on your short, but not on your long at $26. LOL

    As seen in the refreshed 25% bounce yesterday off the $21 double bottom, this stock has and will likely further lift a bunch, months and months ahead of any recovery in Macau GGR -- as discussed right here with this guy's other aliases before he went over the wall on several aliases here.

  • As lawrence Ho made clear in early August when he said VIP would remain subdued and that mass, then running above 30% YOY growth, would be more like half of that until the 2H15 and into 2016 as new properties open and ramp on Cotai, no one with a brain is expecting a sharp recovery in VIP play any time soon... but as Morgan Stanley called out recently, the stocks may soon begin a sharp recovery, especially those emphasizing mass play for more than a few months now.

    You wouldn't know it to skim the thread titles here (talk about blithering bashing from multialias dweebs), but WYNN's quarterly update was very encouraging for most of the companies, especially those focused on mass as WYNN is now trying to get onto..

    While we wait, see my thread titled "WYNN's "bad news" is not as bad as some anticipated" on the MPEL board... YHOO will not let me repost it here.

    Holy crud though, this board is now as worthless as the once quality LVS board, but then we all know yhoo is poorly run other than its fortunate BABA holdings courtesy jerry's brilliant acquisition thereof.

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