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squeezetracker 293 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 15, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    I see below the pedantic f head that called me 5th grade names (LOL) on mpel and then said it was his largest position is trying to dis me again. LOL

    Click on messages and read my last ten or so posts if you want a brief history... but we have been long a large core (hedged at times and others not) on round 3 since October 2013 at just below $13. We added a bunch at $22+/- during the first week in July 2013 (after it pulled back from $26 quickly for a couple of weeks), when we said it would likely get to at least $30 if not $35. Go to the MPEL board and click in $21.80 to read about it for yourself if you are as dopey as this yourdufusintheworld putz.

    We've also traded numerous sleeves in and out on MPEL, including the big slug at $34 when it pulled back from $37 late 2013. We said that would likely rip toward $40 by EOY (it got above $39 and then ripped further to a double top above $45. Yeah, go back this dolt's 6 months where we said, with the stock at $43+, there was a good chance the stock would break down below the $37 50d ema. THAT call was BEFORE the market took call it ALL growth/beta names down 20% or so, including this sector (WYNN from $250 to below $190), and then the onslaught of the noise parade as all the clueless journalists and sellsiders in this sector started their pantswetting sessions over bs that matters not to MPELs story.

    Those reading our posts right here for the last few years also know we think Steve Wynn and team are VERY good, almost as good as lawrence Ho who runs MPEL. But even Stecve has been tipping his hat to lawrence as "a couple years ahead of us" [on premium mass]. Ya, we also continue to flip trade WYNN in the portfolio. easy pickings -- read our posts here.

    From here fwd? MPEL is BY FAR the cheapest in group on cash flow metrics, has the biggest footprint expanison f24m (COD manila and MSC ph 1&2 and Tower 5 at Cotai COD, is the best managed, adj ebitda growth, etc. MPEL is THE stock to own f18m. PT $50+

  • Reply to

    ABSOLUTELY KILLED IT

    by squeezetracker Aug 7, 2013 8:30 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 14, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    Another fun look back...

  • Reply to

    I BOUGHT 100 OCTOBER $30 PUTS TODAY

    by cybercash34 Sep 25, 2013 10:16 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 14, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    a fun look back...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 14, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    just doubled the LVS trade w ave now 75.06... still small, but should be a fun Wednesday report as LVS is assuredly getting its shares of the June Qs mass GR, even if their share (incl VIP) of Macau's overall GGR looks to be only decent yoy.

    2H14 should be a fun party, just as seen in last year's impressive runup into EOY.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 14, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    thanks ed... yes, i meant 2013... i believe you were around during 4Q12 when we called MPEL a screaming buy below $13 since theyt had resolved the fear of a big secondary to fund out Manila then.

    And to be clear, we called for a PT of $25 at the start of 2013. That was raised to $30 when it pulled back to $21 (from just above $25) in early July 2013... Shortly thereafter we suggested the stock could rip to $35 into EOY and as it got to $37 and then pulled back to ~$34, we said we expected it may well blow back to $40 by eoy (2013) as the momo guys chase and pm pull of hedge offsets into EOY. That all played out just as called... and we'll suggest $39+ change as of 12/31/13 was, as a practical matter, close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades to our $40 PT on the upside. LOL

    You likely recall we were very concerned about frothy trading as it ripped toward $45, selling out our then trading sleeve and hedging the core as we thought a trip back to the 50d ema (~$37+) was looming... then that happened before the double top just above $45.

    We were very solid on all of that. what we missed in March was the thumping slammed on call it all growth stocks back to the 50d or even 40week levels, and below that on many names, notably MPEL as the bs noise purveyors threw S at the fan. All of that gave us the most delightful adds to core we can imagine here -- a pantload and another pantload below $35 as shared as we put it on... including the tentative and then firmly called retest bottom (see "bottom is in" post here).

    As noted today, our PT is still $50+ no later than when the Dec Q report is filed (early Feb).

    We've added a few more shares here since, but now have a small sleeve on for LVS into Wednesday... Shel must be #$%$ at all the bs noise and be desirous of doing some thumping this week...

  • I meant to post my thoughts on Dave Winter's interview in Barron's last week on this board, but errantly posted it on the WYNN board instead. I hope they enjoy my view. LOL

    Anyone who has been reading our perspectives for long knows we think MPEL is BY FAR the horse to ride this year and next, followed by LVS and only then WYNN. That said, we think Steve is the second best manager in the business (after Lawrence Ho) and continue to enjoy flip trading WYNN as an ATM machine as longtimers know.

    We also put on a small trade of LVS this morning going into the CC Wednesday... Shel and Mike were seen working at Woody Allen's horse manure socks factory over the weekend. They have a lot of throats to stuff this week, starting with Shuli ren, IBD and Zacks writers, and the bevy of weak sauce sell side analysts writing bs noise since March ended.

    As I alluded to on the other thread, Moody raisning its outlook to positive on MPEL is a telegraph that the June Q and 2H outlook is a lot better than the naysayers think is happening. LOL

  • Just got around to reading the Barron's article (written by Sarah Max, a real journalist -- not our darling "horse manure sock" bs slinger Shuli Ren blog writer for Barron's) from last week interviewing Dave Winter (Wintergreen fund) on why he likes Macau gaming and has a big allocation to WYNN. Seems he thinks WYNN is reasonably valued on today's [ebitda] metrics, but that the new Cotai Palace now under construction will come close to doubling [ebitda] and the valuation [when it comes on line sometime in 2016].

    Winter is a buy and hold, relative value guy with a small staff, but someone ought to tell him that MPEL has a dramatically better/bigger footprint in Macau, is about to bring the relatively open field running (i.e., competition free) COD manila online for this year's Golden Week in October, followed by opening MSC next year and then Tower 5 at COD Cotai about the time Steve opens his only cotai property (and that will be his second and final property on Macau... yep, right about the time MPEL gets going on the buildout of the "expansion phase" of Studio city -- which based on the anticpated budget, will be huge vs the initial phase opening next year.

    Yeah, Dave Winter and his minions ought to learn more about MPEL alright -- it is growing FAR faster than WYNN can even think about... and it has none of the U.S. market baggage.

  • Reply to

    good news, LVS will report next Wed.

    by drjackcar Jul 10, 2014 7:36 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 12, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    See my comments on LVS Q/buybacks this morning, but I agree it will be great to hear from LVS... they will be out to stomp on naysayers, dip S media and weak sauce aalaysts' perspectives on the sky falling in on Macau.

    Those who know Shel's story can also grin knowing they are coming a full week ahead of last year's June Q report date. We are expecting great news from them, likely to mash all of the bs noise into the pavement with thumping kicks in the head...

    I can hardly wait to hear Shel and mike all but snort listening to Robin ask dumb S questions about the weak hold purportedly suffered by ALL operators in June... yeah right... for those who have taken an introductory statistics class, that is about as likely as ALL Chinese familes having precisely 1.1 children. LOL

  • Reply to

    Just scratching the surface

    by grftt Jul 12, 2014 3:47 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 12, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    great stuff grftt...

    The fun for MPEL and LVS longs begins with LVS' reporting on Wednesday...

    VIP is likely going to be flattish for the Q for them YOY in dollar terms (yet still a huge part of overall GR and profitability as you understand), but the power of mass/premium mass revenues ramping up hard as those sources have grown 35% overall and likely MORE THAN THAT for LVS and MPEL is going to be a punch in the face for the shorts and dippy analysts lowering ebitda and adj ebitda numbers.

    During the March Q LVS bought in a bunch of stock above $80... they should be reporting the taking in of a tanker full below $75. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 12, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    You have made similar comments many times, but your comments "GGR for Macau gaming is nearly irrelevant," and "VIP has huge GGR and low margins, giving it a disproportionate and meaningless emphasis," "GGR of very minor importance in China gambling" and "A large drop in VIP/GGR has a very small effect on most Casino’s EBITDA and Profit" are wrong.

    In 2013 2/3 of total revenues for Macau were from VIP. This year VIP GR are running roughly half (50%) of total GR in Macau revenue and will continue to figure prominently in overall gaming revenues for years to come in Asian venues.

    Focusing on MPEL, last year VIP was roughly half of gaming rev; this year it is running at less than 25% of total revenues, but that is because MPEL is WAY ahead of the pack in converting VIP to direct credit -- so called "premium mass." Search grftt's and my posts on that term to learn more, but that is MPEL's business plan which is being "copied" by others and is a key aspect of understanding why VIP is diminishing in importance to those companies that succeed in following MPEL's lead/execution.

    Your suggestion that "costs for mass are low" is also wrong. VIP margins are lower because VIP players are technically better (lower holds) and also require house payment of tour operator commissions and other concessions (comp rooms, F&B, tickets, entertainment, jet/helicopter transport, etc). Mass players are filling the rooms, shows, restaurants and clubs... all of that is more expensive than VIP per dollar of gaming revenue, but mass players are technically worse (i.e., lose significantly more to the house per dollar bet) and also drive the revenue series from the list at the top of this sentence.

    Your comments on currency, "illegal card swipe and phony loan shop transaction" [sic] are being the reason for "VIP crackdown" are also wrong. THAT is what we were calling "noise" 2 months before Shuli Ren, IBD and some analysts figured it out. They should all should curtsy on your take.

  • Reply to

    squeeze re: MPEL Q2

    by drjackcar Jul 10, 2014 7:31 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 11, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    We are completely unconcerned with outlier holds... anyone who is does not understand the business. That said, analysts who suggest that all companies had weak holds for June or the Q must not have taken even an introductory course in statistics.

    Bain's slight clips to 2015 an2016 estimates are largely related to revised depreciation and amortization schedules in his modeling of future gaap basis expense levels; as you infer, those do not impact ebitda, adj ebitda or adj eps... so they frankly do not matter to anyone who understands the business.

    As for GGR, I have discussed the conversion effects (VIP to premium mass/direct credit) several times over the last two years here. MPEL's business plan is to make that happen for themselves in Macau, initiatives LVS tried and did a miserable job with in Macau and Singapore two years ago (credit charge offs and alienation of VIP resulted) but is apparently now doing better with, and which Steve Wynn is now learning is the way of the future and tips his hat to Lawrence. That the media and other morons, sellsiders included, continue to talk about VIP and GGR as the thing Macau is in trouble on is a screaming indication they do not know S from F, about like idiotic Sybil holding conversations with herself on this board (an aside was that on yesterday's new aliases she talked about HK traders shorting or not there as if they matter when the ADS equiv trade was less than 10k shares LOL).

    These dippy posters apparently continue to think they are influencing retail investors, but as I have said many times here, retail holders control only about 5% or so of the stock, so the tape is a study in pissant sleeve daytraders flip trading multiple times per day. It is a big yawn.

    Ya the stock has been choppy, but remember what we said in early July 2013: at $21 the stock is stupid cheap and will be above $30 by EOY (it hit $40). This yr, caveat being out to Dec Q report, we think $50 is about the same feel from present levels.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 10, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    Bain is a smart guy; Citi has been a key bear and is now twisting back to a bull longer run on 2014...

    But as I have said many times here, we know a few of the other pm long these shares, and pretty much all of us ignore the sellside other than to know what they are talking about.

    As for Bain's eps numbers, he is one of the few with connectivity to the MPEL C suite and has likely has dialed in a bunch on what mgmt wants him to know and publish, consistent with Ho's "beat and raise" idea of investor relations. We also have a known item that expenses are ramping up for Manila without any revenue in their models for the year (certainly not in 2Q) and most recently we know they have increased the budgets for manila (right when they signed up Hyatt after already raising the budget last october) and also for MSC initial phase.... right along with disclosing that they are now going on 8 cylinders planning the "expansion phase" for Studio City.

    If not obvious,we don't really care what most analysts publish and hope they ensure MPEL beats. It is of minor relevance to MPEL what Macau VIP/GGR or even MPEL's GGR is for the near term; composition is what matters and VIP is close to meaningless for MPEL. EPS numbers don;t mean much either this year as long as they are not crushed out vs consensus... our focus remains ebitda and adj ebitda. MPEL ought to be able to hit the current consensus on eps even if VIP is down 25% YOY... mass + premium mass should be excellent this year-- even if not enough to drive last years 62% increase in adj ebitda yoy.

    Again, MPEL will be close to doubling their adj ebitda run rate f18m... trading at less than 12x current ebitda is patently ridiculous unless the china economy is going to collapse... we'll focus on helping grind the wheat vs panicking that the sky is falling.

  • Talk about irony...

    Barron's weak sauce blog writer on emerging markets, Shuli Ren, has spent much of her energy spinning even positive news on Macau gaming with a negative bias since March, with many articles discussing how awful things are and the gloom and doom of the how things are bound to worsen and beat up the stocks.

    And yet in today's article she gives air to the swelling perspective of many sellside "analysts", the very same idiots that have been used by short selling pm as tools along with the media to disseminate all of the bs noise (UnionPay "clamp down", corrup[tion witch hunt, dimished china economic prospects and growth, loss of credit availability and pending collpase of shadow banking system, the doom of china's real estate market, VIP junket fraud, Visa restrictions coming (not), and all other manner of slung poo these dolts have fired up) that maybe the names have been unduly thrashed by the incessant parade of bs noise, and that, almost like Rasana Dana, it's about time to say, "ummnnn, Nevermind."

    She is seemingly oblivious to the role she has personally played in all of this -- maybe she is simply so ignorant as to not understand she has been instrumental in sharing the spew she now calls "noise"? If it was not so ridiculous, it would be laughably funny.

    Too bad her piece today is ignored as everything she writes should have been all along. so much for her mission of writing about "real time, market moving news"... That per se is ironic and funny.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 10, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    grftt...

    Now everyone reading this will have some idea of:

    1. What "premium mass" and direct credit and franchise development centered on "stay and play" for elite wealthy patrons and their entourages" means;

    2. Why "premium mass" has such outstanding table yields -- including "best in group" from MPEL;

    3. An inkling of how and why Steve Wynn acknowledges that some very enterprising and bright guys have better connectivity and dial into the elite wealthy of China and how he and the other U.S. based competitors are "a few years behind but working to catch up";

    4. Why MPEL has built its franchise and new developments to cater to "premium mass" patrons including Alktria and especially COD on Macau -- and why the new Studio City (initial phase opening next year and expansion phase now in planning), as well as Tower 5 at COD (which will be solely about "premium mass" catering) and at least 300 deluxe suites (out of a total of 970 or so rooms) at COD manila will be for the elite players.

    5. If they have not read anything else we've discussed here, this explains why VIP growth slowing doesn;t mean much to MPEL.

    Still, ignoring all of that, if I could not do math and thought that with mass+ "premium mass" growing at 35% for the june Q and VIP flat or down slightly yoy meant MPEL's ebitda was going to be hurt because only 20% or so of MPEL's revenue is from VIP (funny, huh?), well... then i would be a certifiable idiot and think that shorting MPEL was a sound trading idea... yeah... and I might even use that enormous stupidity trying to figure out how to come up with 30 different sign in aliases and spend all day logging in and out to make comments back and forth to myself the way our latest drivel-meister does. LOL

  • Portugal's weak banks need capital, but the sky has not fallen on China yet... LOL

    BEIJING—Chinese exports grew in June on the back of strengthening U.S. consumer demand, in a positive sign for China's factory sector and for the global economic outlook.

    The pace of export growth disappointed some economists, though others blamed the lingering impact of distortions in last year's Chinese trade numbers used to make the comparison.

    "The global demand recovery is still on track but the momentum is very modest," said Ma Xiaoping...

    Chinese exports expanded by 7.2% year-over-year in June, compared with the 7% year-over-year increase in May, according to China's General Administration of Customs on Thursday. This was below the median forecast of 10% growth from a Wall Street Journal poll of 21 economists.

    Some economists shrugged off the shortfall. "A number over 7% is quite decent, quite real," said Lu Ting, economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "I think it's the right pace for China based on global demand. Forget about expectations"

    Others cited strong import data, which suggested solid demand from Chinese consumers and a positive impact on China's efforts to speed up infrastructure spending and loosen credit—moves economists call a ministimulus.

    "We saw imports go up quite a lot," said ANZ economist Li-Gang Liu. "And the strong trade surplus will vindicate the U.S. view that the Chinese are still accumulating a large trade surplus, suggesting that the renminbi might not have reached its fair value."

    ...export momentum does appear to be returning, analysts said. U.S. imports of goods from China increased in each of the past four months to reach $37.99 billion in May, according to Commerce Department data. Despite tepid global economic growth in recent years, China has continued to pick up market share. Nearly 20% of goods imported globally by the U.S. now come from China, up from 16% in 2008... [big share of pie on a much bigger base we'll add]

  • Reply to

    quick review of where things stand

    by drjackcar Jul 9, 2014 3:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Re "Anything else?" We could use a Woody Allen horse manure sock factory for the media... add Zacks to the Barrons' and IBD "hall of stupidity" crowd.

    doc, the conversion of the most desirable stay and play patrons from VIP tours to direct credit relationship "Premium Mass" players is poorly understood by call it almost everyone -- but certainly most analysts and sellsiders from a significance standpoint. Premium mass and VIP trendlines at MPEL are more than expressed by MPEL's results -- this conversion dynamic is the PLAN and why MPEL is mashing competitors on a pound for pound basis. It is also a serious piece of why MPEL remains in fabulous standing with the political leadership in Macau... catering to these highly valuable visitors is valuable to MPEL, but it is also that to Macau's politicians, shop owners, restauranteurs and other cultural development aspects for the island and surrounding buildouts.

    We don't think credit availability is an issue for most quality tours or players, but losing the cream players to direct Premium Mass is not going to be good for tour operators dso/collection stats. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Part 3

    "Our development pipeline continues to progress, with Studio City on-budget and on-track to open in mid-2015, while the timing of our Philippines Project remains unchanged and is expected to open around the middle of next year. Both of these exciting development opportunities are key components of our strategy to maximize return on invested capital and drive long term shareholder value."

    Reread that last sentence for emphasis -- do you think they are going to Manila to dilute their ROIC? We sure do not as discussed at length here by us a few times since 2012.

    "Macau continues to deliver robust growth across all gaming and non-gaming segments in 2013, highlighting its unique position to cater to the rapidly evolving Asian consumer and expanding middle class. Similarly, our Manila project is well positioned to address this segment in the Philippines and the broader region providing another destination to a wider array of consumers seeking a broader leisure and entertainment proposition. Both of these markets are expected to benefit meaningfully from wide-reaching development plans and significant infrastructure improvements, helping to improve access and enhance customer experience."

    Here is more reference to doing more than just gaming in Macau and Manila -- and identifying and capitalizing on the emerging trends in mass and PREMIUM MASS that MPEL is leading the pack on. Ring any bells about what Pansy was calling her visionary thing in the article this week? LOL More like she is trying her level best to think of what brother Lawrence would say and ascribe that "vision thing" to herself whenever she finds herself standing next to an open microphone.

    We look forweard to the june Q results and updated outlook from MPEL... we like Lawrence's upod framing of 15% GGR growth for Macau this year (said knowing VIP was being crossed into Premium Mass by MPEL) and can hardly wait to see more info on their "PHENOMENAL" Golden Week that began May.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 9, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Part 2

    "Adjusted EBITDA(1) was US$330.1 million for the second quarter of 2013, as compared to Adjusted EBITDA of US$203.8 million in the comparable period of 2012. The 62% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA was [primarily] attributable to strong growth in the mass market table games segment at City of Dreams..."

    A ceo focused on quant and FCF generation?

    Ho:
    "I am pleased to report another successive quarter of record earnings and EBITDA, building on the strong momentum in the first quarter of 2013.

    "Highlighting the ideal strategic positioning of our flagship property, City of Dreams, this premium-mass focused property once again captured meaningful market share in the mass market table games segment which, in turn, has been the major driver of our impressive group-wide performance in the second quarter of 2013. City of Dreams' unique ability to cater towards these highly discerning, premium mass market-focused customers is highlighted by our market-leading mass table yields, which is increasingly important in a table supply constrained market."

    "Premium mass focused property" is pointed here... as the most desirable players and MPEL have forged their very own direct stay and play relationships including credit arrangements settled up every 30 days, you need not wonder too much why VIP GGR growth has diminished in macau YOY, quite apart from all of the other headline bs and particularly as other venues try to follow MPEL's leadership on this dynamic.

    Here's more from ho on that: "We continue to move forward with the fifth hotel tower at City of Dreams and anticipate to commence construction by the end of 2013. This iconic additional hotel tower represents another powerful addition to our wide array of amenities and attractions that City of Dreams already offers its premium-mass and high end customers, providing another tool to further extend our leading position in this key segment."

    Tower 5 is rolling on schedule as poer subsequent updates.

  • This is fun stuff for longs... LOL

    Start by reading my latest "Quant fun" post that Sybil, who is dumber than dirt from all visible references and can't do 3rd grade math as we've seen before, apparently doesn't like. (ROFL) Yeah, if mass is growing at 36% in macau and MPEL is leading the pack on that piece of the pie and now pushing 80% of revenue from that vs VIP, matrix got it right 80% up 36% is (net) gaming rev growth of around 28% [(0% x 20%) + (36% x 80%)] for MPEL this Q -- even if VIP is flat/zero % growth for them during the 2Q14.

    Compare that framework to the range of brokerage estimates out there for the June Q. The consensus number gets to around 3.5% growth, while the highest number of $1.51B drives growth of 17% yoy for the June Q. There's some room for upside surprise here, huh?

    Sounds too optimistic? Maybe so (wry smile). Everyone who has more than 10 shares long here ought to go back and study last year's June Q a bit. Lawrence Ho's quote in the PR were all about how ideally positioned MPEL's COD was for pursuing their premium mass and mass gaming growth with constrained table growth for everyone. Seems he understands the ebitda and margin numbers on all these little quant details...

    Without footprint expansion, during the June Q13, net revs grew 37% YOY! Reflecting the operating leverage, adj ebitda grew 62% YOY fir the Q ended June 2013. 62%! One might study the terms if they are a mystery because that is driving what Ho called MPEL's key objectives of "maximizing ROIC" and further expanding their ideal position in Macau and coming with COD Manila and Macau Studio City on schedule. Sybil and unhedged shorts can pass -- they don't know how to do math. LOL

    Here's some more from Ho with my color comments:

  • The idiots at Zacks obviously has no idea what an "Integrated Resort" is or what the difference is between flat VIP for the Macau IRs vs MPEL growing mass/premium mass AT LEAST as much as Macau's reported 35%+ for the 2Q14 overall.

    Here's quant fun in the form of a 3rd grade math quiz one can use to help develop an understanding of the MPEL story. If 20% of their gaming revenue stream is growing at 0% for the quarter (i.e., VIP is flat yoy), and the mass gaming portion (some 80% of MPEL's revenue -- by far best in class) is growing at 35%+ for 2Q14 yoy with a margin of more than 3x the VIP business, then how much will MPEL have for increased gaming revenue expressed in percentage terms yoy?

    Answer:

    a. 0%

    b. Negative 3.7%

    c. 28%

    d. No one can tell so it is best to sell the stock, especially since a complete idiot posts dog S under 30 or so aliases here all day long.

    Soon to come: a fifth grade math quiz on what operating leverage means to adj ebitda growth for MPEL.

    ROFLOL

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