The group is badly broken down here... but here I'll emphasize MPEL.
Despite best in the sector revenue and ebitda growth in percentage terms, and the fact that MPEL has the biggest footprint expansion in percentage terms over the next 2 years, the stock has not only broken down on a double top fail, it has now completed a head and shoulders hammering... the group has done much the same, to the point where both the MPEL's relative strength metrics are down hard now the group is following.
Against that, excellent to see the pummeled tech and consumer discretionary stocks and even heavy cyclicals begin to claw their way back up the right side of deep etch bases now too... just as the DOW and S&P 500 are zooming off to new all time highs.
The good news of all that is while temporary dislocations happen with frequency, exceedingly strong fundamentals and objective quant metrics/valuation always overcome temporary bs noise and errant analysis; and MPEL's fundamentals and hammered valuation are inconsistent with the chart.
What a great set-up for a V or U reversal given that the global economic indicators are improving -- even in China and Europe now...
We think WYNN and LVS are also set up for a snapback reversal... and note that no 13g selling is happening from either Crown Resorts (Packer's company) or Melco Entertainment (Ho's company), which together control 68% of outstanding MPEL shares.
An update to the Company's "on or about june 6" timing and estimated conversion amount for ADS shares...
MS just advised us the ADS shares will receive the dividend of $.128/share on June 13th (Friday the 13th LOL).
We all know that industry analysts are quoted by the media, especially when the news is either really good or really bad for a given sector or company... too bad really that ex Bain, the "analysts" following this sector are uniformly weak sauce... that is why the buyside research staff and pm pretty much ignore the sellside analysts.
But for those who have never worked on the street, you may not be aware that a primary objective for most research directors and their staff is avoid being apart from the analyst group on ratings, estimates and PT -- particularly when stocks in that group are dropping. It is okay to be "wrong" when the entire cluster of analysts is also wrong, but it can cost analysts and research directors their jobs when they are too bullish when everyone else goes negative and stocks drop.
As for missing the turn to the upside and or not being optimistic enough? Almost no one ever gets terminated for that, and often incentive payouts/spiffs in the research group are not even impaired on this error... so it takes some chutzpah to differentiate oneself on the upside of PTs and bullishness. And you can see that the weak analysts comprising this cluster F group all move together up and down with PT, rev/eps estimates and ratings... and few of them do any meaningful/detailed ebitda or adj ebitda work, and when they do, it is not value additive.
As was the case in 2009 and 2012 and now again, ex Bain they are lowering their rev and eps estimates, and PTs all together in a Kumbaya, chicken little cluster F moment -- PRECISELY when they should be focusing on the turnaround coming for GGR, mass outperforming conservative estimates, and ebitda beating top of street estimates (before lowering). Again, fundamentals and quant trump bs noise over time... and time is compressing here now.
they said the same thing about LVS at $38 and MPEL at $14 in 2012...
Old news, but the analysts in this sector are amongst the weakest of all sectors.
We do exclude David Bain from that broad brush... he's the only one doing anything other than following the penguin crowd.
Here's more news: Stock prices often reflect dislocation along the continuum of bs discounting of overdone concerns on one end and undue exuberance on the other.
The weak sauce analysts, excluding only Sterne Agee and MS from what we can see, are all focused on what is happening week by week, contrived and obfuscating headline by headline, and afraid to commit to sound fundamental analysis and valuation metrics that always trump bs dislocation over time.
Professional traders tend to focus their time and energy capitalizing on noise and bs... but the guys who actually understand the markets, this business and MPEL's singular position also understand the extraordinary opportunity the share price discount all this bs has wrought. They are the players who took out the hot money bailing as the stock pulled back to the 50 and then 200d ema and as Warren would tell you today (if he understood this business and MPEL), when others are fearful, it is time to be greedy.
The best party of all the recent bs is that in MPEL's case, even if VIP flatlines for the rest of the year, MPEL should be able to beat the consensus out there BEFORE all these idiots lower their published estimates. And for the longtimers here, when was the last time analysts were reducing estimates into a quarter end? For MPEL this is all a great set up for what is coming on footprint expansion and adj ebitda growth f24m.
Meanwhile, it can be said that zpackerr and Ho don;t care about the stock price near term and neither should SH, but that is lame. At $30/share, MPEL should be defending the stock by issuing debt to buy shares, confident that they can reissue equity later at double or even triple current levels as the adj ebitda growth curve continues on trajectory.
On analyst incompetence,, ex Bain they all say no catalysts until 2H this year; but market looks forward more than a week and next headlines guys, but you are all missing it today as bad as you did in '09 and then again in late 2012
The bs train ride is about to end...
Jun 10, 2014 5:16 AM ET
Hong Kong stocks rose, with the benchmark index erasing this year’s loss, amid optimism that Chinese policy makers will succeed in countering the nation’s economic slowdown.
The Hang Seng Index added 0.9 percent to 23,315.74 at the close today, taking its gain this year to less than 0.1 percent. The index hasn’t closed above its 2013 year-end level since the first trading day this year. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, also known as the H-share index, rose 1.1 percent to 10,518.80 today, paring its drop in 2014 to 2.7 percent.
The Hong Kong stock benchmark rebounded 10 percent from this year’s low in March as manufacturing reports signal Asia’s biggest economy is stabilizing after growth weakened to 7.4 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2012 and below the official annual target of 7.5 percent. The government has since announced a series of policies to support the economy, including reserve-ratio cuts for regional lenders and directives to accelerate home-loan approvals.
“China is restarting its stimulus program and boosting investor sentiment,” said Benjamin Tam, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at IG Investment Ltd. “The market is hoping the government will launch more stimulus later on and drive up growth in the second half.”
The People’s Bank of China yesterday announced a 0.5 percentage-point cut in reserve requirements for some banks aimed at supporting smaller companies and agricultural borrowers. The reduction will take effect June 16. The move will add 70 billion yuan ($11.2 billion) to the financial system and should help ease credit conditions, Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note dated yesterday.
Other stimulus measures include railway and housing spending and tax relief for small businesses...
LOL... They must have a few Asian hedge fund clients short a bunch to make it worth throwing themselves off the cliff with the stock already pounded down to at $31. We are surprised to see the stock breakdown further -- below our call that the bottom was likely in at $31.02 on May 15 barring a collapse of China's economy. Wait... is the sky falling down on China today?
Sold out AAL and ALK this morning (WTI back above $104 on , what?... "underlying economic outlook improving globally" and jet A cost soon to start hurting airline ebitda ) and now just sold out DAL when it broke down below $42 on volume... those stocks s/b coming in...
Now, other than pm boxing positions (offset short of the MPEL long) we'll see how stupid stupid can get on MPEL and keeping some powder dry, but we just added a small slug at $30.50.
You have to give the funds short this stock some credit for their orchestration of bs noise into the 13 points of nonsense the media and weak sauce analysts gobbled up... speaking of the turkey game, who is gobbling up those 7M + shares today? Our chunk was trivial. And these dopes posting nonsense here all day are a riot. Did 2k of that 8.6m bought today come from yhoo readers "panic" selling out 50 shares at a time? Or maybe we should say how frightening this has been since 45+. LOL
We understand that more than a few pm are now boxed out to 50% or so again. When the whistle blows (after everyone has digested "lunch" -- here the mass vs VIP implications), all of those box shorts will come off in unison as everyone jumps back in the pool.
Hopefully MPEL is using or will use the buyback authorization... shades of AAPL and others getting clobbered when they have the firepower to quash shorting and pm longs' concerns that ebitda may only grow about 30% this year on flattish VIP. LOL Seriously, though, time to roll out the buyback canon lawrence -- the share repurchase ROI is even better than MPEL's best in group ROIC.
We just blew out of TRIP splitting those proceeds between EXPE and PCLN.
We also just blew out AAL and ALK (holding onto DAL for now)... that gives us some wood to lay in on MPEL while the fire sale continues.
just sold this out -- including both sleeves, a very fun 25% pop in less than a month. Proceeds added to expe and pcln now.
And MPEL has the best execution on mass in the group... some 80% ytd (through March likely higher now) at COD and 75% overall...
where is THAT actual news being reported?
The media and these so-called "analysts" (again, we exclude Sterne Agee's David Bain because he is actually a solid analyst doing legitimate work on the sector and individual companies) apparently don;t think that matters to forward results.
Almost tragic to think the Telsey guy, working for Dana Telsy's retail/real estate property consulting agency
is the only firm other than Sterne Agee to actually focus on what the pm/buyside analysts taking up the bid side of the tape down here are thinking about this sector down here.
And still the pm paying for nonsense posts on this sector think it is worthwhile trying to shake out retail shares (less than 5% ownership of the company) while 3m+ shares trade daily? LOL
and has anyone read any analyst or media piece discuss Ho's quote regarding "Golden Week was PHENOMENAL"? No? We haven't either... of course, other than Sterne Agee's David Bain, it is hard to believe this sector's weak "sellside research analysts" do anything other than read Barron's dippy emerging markets blog and other vacuous media articles.
We're pretty sure that as MPEL has been maintaining its overall share of GGR of late, they are well ahead of the pack on mass and mass GR has been growing in the mid 30s% during April and May... big news coming on what that means to MPEL's ebitda and adj ebitda...
If some of the longs here didn't see drjack's grftt's recent posts on mass and Tianamen Square influence on travel in china during the last week of May amidst all of the intense desperado and nonsense posting here over the last few days, consider finding and reading them -- great comments from them both.
p.s. We'd love to see the short interest of Union Gaming's clients as of last Friday. LOL
It was finally uniformly negative... most of the analysts had gone from BUY to neutral or SELL even... only a couple of the analysts had the foresight (competence) to realize the stocks were at the bottom of the extended shakeout and that it was time to buy again. ALL four of the U.S. listed companies have gone up hard since (MPEL is still up some 200% despite the pullback from the double top at $45).
Some of the longtimers here know we went back to 100% net long on LVS at $38, and that we waited until November to come back onto MPEL as the fog lifted on funding for Manila, but it was a great run for the group from that bottom.
Over the last 5 days, a handful of this sector's very poor quality "analysts" have recapped all of the bs reasons they think VIP and GGR will drop to about half the 15% referenced by Ho and other company CEOs for 2014. This latest round of towel tossing and weak-minded penguins all jumping together was triggered by the poor GGR for the last week of May, but the cites now rehash all of the bs noise put up over the last two months and counting now: China gdp collapsing all the way to 7.4% (LOL), China's banking, shadow banking and real estate all going off the cliff, UnionPay cards under siege (as if), corruption crackdown on all of China, VIP tours consolidating, smoking bans, lions and tigers and bears, oh my... dragon boats, school exams, the moss on trees and the kitchen sink.
It is going to be fun watching them all issue, "Ummm, Nevermind, now we think the sector is a screaming BUY" reports, probably no later than when the companies release the June quarter results and as soon as June GGR results and particularly some of the power of the mass gaming impact begins to be understood.
Special thanks to all of them for letting us reload large down here... and while the tail risks (MPEL low $28/high $60+) remain there for this year, we like the risk reward picture right here, especially with Manila coming on line before Golden Week.
great article drjack... a nice contrast to the weak sauce analysts issuing "research reports" latewly on all of the nonsense reasons the "sky is falling" on china and macau business. LOL
great posts grftt...
when you consider the incidence and desperation of the new aliases bashing here on Asian time, going so goofy as to reference the HK shares following the U.S. shares last Friday and that somehow the equivalent of 33k ADS shares in total for the day, including a push down down on the last couple of peanut trades somehow indicates the sky is falling, and a repeat of all of the other dismissed nonsense... you know, they might "scare" another couple retail holders into selling 25 shares apiece...
unreal to think anyone would pay this guy(s) for such inanity.
it is terrific that the ignore box seems unlimited, seemingly the only thing yahoo does well. LOL
Thanks for the comments... Love this part: "The Tiananmen Square anniversary was the lone source of slump the last week of May IMHO." Interesting drill down into our speculation on this topic.
Just think... with your update on this topic , now we can expect several analysts to issue a follow up first call piece to say Tianamen Square remembrances and somberness caused the softness in overall tourism and traffic flow to Macau during the last week in May. Likely they will ewait to see early returns on June GGR... but do you suppose they will try to do a bit more work on mass play? LOL
When everyone figures it out, MPEL will be back above the 10W ema, en route to new highs before long and into the manila opening.
And great to see them select Hyatt as door number 3 for Manila... a nice choice. All future business meetings and travelers will now have a choice play to stay, meet and dine... and game a bit at COD Manila on their free time while there.
Although the strong hands (beyond Packer and Ho's 68% that id) do understand the mass piece, the press does not, most of the sellside analysts do not, and NFW do the morons daytrading this 5 x per day understand what you just summarized.
Further, absent quality input from those sources, and the dimwits on this board and shorting the stock give witness to, there is plenty here for the pantswetters and hand wringers to fret about... the previously inexplicable dropoff over the last week of May was spooky for many in that regard, certainly all of the people focused on weekly GGR as a relevant metric. Remember that most of the companies are no where close to MPEL in developing premium mass play (direct and no commission high rollers with private jet service in to Macau and or helicopter service in from Hong Kong) and emphasizing mass and entertainment... that is why MPEL COD did 80% ytd in mass while WYNN and MGM are running more like 2/3s VIP -- less than they did last year, but almost the inverse of COD. The upshot of that on first blush is that those two co's should be trading off a bit if VIP was really going to trend flatline from here on out, especially since some choice tours will be booking into manila later this year for something new. The next derivative is that apart from MPEL, a flatline in VIP means that WYNN and MGM are likely picking up some of the less important junket crumbs sloughed off by MPEL, so maybe their VIP is going to continue to represent enough growth to hit expectations even as they try to emphasize mass play.
grftt's extension of my comments on Tianamen Sq quelling effects during the somber 25th anniversary of were of note as well.. things will likely be back to normal through June in terms of visitation as mass continues to more than offset any VIP easing.
We're glad to add while the gifting continues.
Enjoyed your additional color on Tianamen Square on the other thread grftt... the sector and MPEL dislocation has limited days remaining...
Recent posts demonstrate that several posters here understand that GGR is not the key metric these days. The valuation will follow as the street figures it out and the daytrader and hedge fund sleeve shorts meet the logical end coming.
Mass GR, with its attendant lack of commissions and far better win rates and ancillary benefits to occupancy/F&B/shows is running 75% and growing in MPEL's properties, and mass GR on Macau is growing call it 35% for the Q (last week of May aside), while operating expenses are contained at say 10% ramp (gearing up for Manila opening in a few months and then MSC next year), so even if MPEL's RCT matters less and less over time and MPEL will still outperform the group on operating leverage (adj ebitda ramping).
The ADS div is $.1293/share, "on or about June 6th." It did not hit our Morgan account on Friday... Monday seems likely.
From the 6k
"Declaration and Payment of Quarterly Dividend
Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that on 8 May 2014, the Board considered and approved the declaration and payment of a quarterly dividend of US$0.0431 per ordinary share of the Company for the first quarter of 2014 (the “Quarterly Dividend”).
The Quarterly Dividend will be paid on or about 6 June 2014 to the shareholders of the Company whose names appear on the register of members of the Company (the “Shareholders”) at the close of business on 26 May 2014, being the record date for determination of entitlements to the Quarterly Dividend."
blaqnight just can't help himself...
Those with some intellect and who respectfully disagree with us create on any aspect of life create interesting conversation learning opportunities. His comments never qualify on either score.
When this idiot and the other awipes here try to dis others with stupidity and make it personal? That calls for the occasional stomp or just simple shorthand "FY" and pointing out the inanity of his continual blithering bs. You may notice that our dialogue with about 5-6 quality posters here is often civil disagreement or point counterpoint -- it is called conversation and debate.
He does qualify as board comedian with no clue about this company though. Now he suggests we all brace ourselves for a big drop. GFL on that from down here. Last week he said he was shorting was down below $32 as it ripped to $34.50 the next two days. Here's some fun rhetoric for the esoteric group here, but since he is obviously not any kind professional save for perhaps being paid for diversionary nonsense, I wonder how many accounts are he is using to do the purported box shorting, and (as if you have any idea or are doing that) how do you report it for tax purposes? LOL
Again, FY for thinking you are entitled to tell me what to do.
directed at blacqtart's below
As for "following me blindly", you must assume everyone is as stupid as you continually demonstrate yourself to be. Anyone who has paid attention to our entry levels ($12, 20 and latest sleeve now blended to less than $34) and suggestion that the above $43 this year was frothy momo chasing at the time and merited hedging or taking off the trading chunk as we did) is doing just fine and has no loss. those who purchased higher and did not hedge this are in the same bucket as the group and many other high beta/growth stories this year, pending a sustained turnaround for those stocks that will lead the charge higher and drive yr end incentive returns. Anyone short in a fund here will lose capital, beginning any day now. But then, some 500 or so registered funds are fail this year anyway -- just as well it be your bosses boss.
Given that, and the reality that this stock is controlled 68% by Packer's Crown and Ho's Melco, conbined with the other 25% controlled by professional mm means that only 5% or so of the stock is owned by individual shareholders. Peanuts ya morn... peanuts. Of those, the only people losing money are those who bought higher and are selling out down here below $35... we expect those who sell out on this shakeout, likely to end soon and from which we believe the bottom is already in (again, the tail risk is likely $28 on the low end and above $60 this year on the high end) will likely soon have years to regret bailing out at the bottom.
Beyond that, our only "advice" has been to avoid margin and weekly options in the market chop. We will continue to share our investment themes (long, short or hedges) on bigger cap stocks whenever we feel like, and it is not to influence trivial retail holdings as you morons think is worthwhile here (we'd be surprised if retail vol gets to 1% of daily tape). Anyone playing along is well outperforming -- because we are.