This stock is up 9% since, so is pcln. Both have more upside from tonight than TRIP which is up 15% since my post. LOL
Much higher share prices coming on EXPE and PCLN... up another 10%+ forward a few weeks.
It took two weeks a few days to turn up, but PCLN, TRIP and EXPE are all raging now.
Did I mention shorts were hosed on these names? EXPE and PCLN have the greatest upside from here as TRIP has run 15% since my thread start and the other two are just shy of 10% as of the close today.
TRIP up 15% over the last two weeks, and PCLN and EXPE up 9% and 8% respectively.
All three will be up substantially higher within another couple of weeks... but in percentage terms EXPE and PCLN have the most upside from here forward.
Did I mention shorts are hosed on these names? LOL
and TRIP is 15% over the same 14 trading days.
Face it deutcheebagette, you are a f gumptard and suk at trading. LOL at you trying to dis me with your obvious lack of capital markets, OTA and PCLN knowledge...
See you up another $100 over the next month. LOL
You calling me a moron is absolutely hilarious. There you are, a complete dufus, and here i am, a genius running on of the top performing private funds on the West Coast.
For everyone else besides this putz and his pal moniapp23 and radmonkie, PCLN is up $90 over the last 14 trading days -- isn't it great to have morons such as these twits opposite your position? LOL
re: "Steve Wynn has been a brilliant operator for many years and we've often owned the shares (long a 4k share trade again currently") ...
For any one curious, we just blew the 4k WYNN shares out up $12.30 in a week... that sounds like a great quick trade, until we do the math that MPEL is up almost twice that in percentage terms. We think WYNN has room to run and will move with the group, but none of the stocks is as mispriced as is MPEL down here.
To be clear, we have no present intent to sell out any MPEL shares, at least until we hit our PT of $50+ no later than the Dec Q conference call.
This is one of those days it is fun to think back on how stupid and wrong all of the pseudo journalists, "analysts", other talking heads, and complete dufus pm paying these moronic bashers using multiple aliases here have been as they race to cover in the unhedged shorts that the smarter guys used to add to positions as per the latest 13Fs. LOL
Just blew out the 4k shares up $12.30, a quick and easy $49.2k in a week thanks to the ridiculously stupid pm short the macau stocks, and no doubt paying peanuts to the the foul-mouthed putzes to post dog S here all day for the last couple of weeks.
Fun to pint out that MPEL is now up ~10% since last week... and so are most of our key allocations (PCLN is up $100 in a little over a week, but EXPE, TRIP, DAL,AAL SBUX are all smoking again, just as we suggested would happen when the drop mohawking the momo stocks and taking the REAL growth stories down with them.
How are you putzes trying to dis me for saying it was a screaming buy at $37 while yelling this was going to $20 doing these days? If you hurry, you can still cover below $60. LOL
of mass play on overall net gaming revenue growth, ebitda and earnings.
2. Most VIP players fly in to play and then leave. Ho's family has an investment in a helicopter company that brings in players from HK for one night stays and then sends them back... they don't need a lot more rooms to cater to the key VIP/premium mass players.
3. Although many elite properties have outstanding occupancy stats, there continues to be slow midweek lulls and capacity is not an issue then or during lull periods before and after Golden Week spurts.
4. A bigger potential effect on overall GGR is the concerns voiced roundly late last year and into this year on China GDP and liquidity, financing, shadow banking, etc perhaps going to have some impact on the propensity and frequency of wealthy players going to Macau to play. While that remains an ongoing point of relevant discussion, what got going hard, as readers here know, is the crush of irresponsible/ clueless journalism thrashing around on topics incl UnionPay cards, passports, the Malaysia Air incident, and the kitchen sink on top, all to the effect that the sky is falling on China and Macau this year... the numbers are now coming in to refute all of that bs, but the momentum player exodus and broad market swoon down through the 50d ema and approaching or thru the 200d ave for many names certainly had their cumulative effect on the stocks from late March up through early May.
There's more to GGR for Macau, but enough here. Remembering MPEL has best in group mass/premium mass, MPEL's ebitda and operating leverage, and new properties coming on are the real story for the shares. We continue to model macau GGR between 15% (baseline) and 20% this year -- same as last year, with MPEL's revenue and ebitda growth smoking that rate if only ~holding share of GGR in macau pending MSC coming on next year, and COD Manila expectations floored is great fun. Our PT remains $50+ no later than the week Dec Q results are out.
a few thoughts. part 1
I think his best and spot on thoughts were that the Macau stocks ~"accelerated late last year and early this year as momentum took over" [as quality longtime pm sponsors box hedged and or lightened into the weaker/hotter momentum players chasing the sector and especially the outperforming MPEL]. We commented on this aspect real time here as those reading along here know, explaining our hedge trades between tops and back to support twice before the bigger breakdown on the media bs and all the momo guys bailing while the quality players -- those who actually understand the sector and the individual companies -- were scooping up more sharesa between $37 and $45 last Q, again, likely concentrated around and thru the 50 d ema on both pullbacks. We also agree with his take that the stocks ought to get moving again as the year unfolds.
As for his views on Macau growth, we continue to think Ho's guidance of 15% GGR for 2014 is out of his consistent UPOD framing andthat we Macau will again push 20% this year as it did last year despite "analysts" -- let alone a Bloomberg journalist -- suggest it won't get that high. Further, we don't agree the most difficult part of continuing ramp in GGR is that aggregate capacity growth is slowing in percentage terms. Several things are at play here...
1. While VIP growth is still happening despite its reduced emphasis for call it all companies now, the rate of overall VIP growth so far has slowed not on capacity growth reduction (tables allocated to VIP have actually declined as casionos move tables from private rooms/floors to mass/premium mass play), rather, VIP growth in percentage terms is slowing on the bigger base and moreso because all of the companies are now attempting to follow both MPEL and LVS in capturing an increasing percentage of their GGR in higher margin premium mass and mass play. This reduces rolling chip volume from what could be, obviously, but does not begin to capture the power...
the comment about Japan has been echoed elsewhere...
"The question was raised if Japan comes online will it hurt Macau. Zarnett said that the customers coming to Macau are not from Japan and the Chinese customers are still primarily from the southern regions of country."
As you know, MPEL understands this is gearing up top serve the elite japanese player at COD Manila.
"Executives here in Macau told The Philippine STAR that apart from luxury hotels, the best in fine dining and other amenities, the new City of Dreams Manila aspires to be the leader in world-class entertainment because that is the unique competitive edge of City of Dreams Macau and they also see entertainment as one of the inherent competitive advantages of Philippine society.
According to young Macau entrepreneur Lee Tiong Thay, City of Dreams is excelling due to the competitive spirit and vision of its CEO Lawrence Ho, and Macau’s vibrant competitive environment. Grand Hyatt Macau official Angel Lei said, “Every year you can see new ideas and new projects coming up here in Macau; it’s a colorful and dynamic place.”
Strategically located in the heart of Cotai, between Coloane and Taipa, the dazzling City of Dreams offers everything from the best hotels — Grand Hyatt and Crown Tower — to the most enthralling shows. Cotai is near Macau’s ferry terminals, border gates and airport, with direct flights to Manila as well as other cities. As a dynamic centerpiece of the fast-developing Cotai, City of Dreams has decisively taken Macau’s entertainment industry to new heights with new ideas and glamour.
Macau is the only place in China officially allowed to have gambling businesses. It is a unique autonomous Special Administrative Region (SAR) and one of the Asia’s leading travel and leisure des...
On the table topic... I recently posted about tables since the new conceptual annual limit of 3% table growth kicked in for the annual periods beginning on March 31.2013. repeating myself, the "limit" is not a legislated, enforceable max, and that is not their intent. To make the point, for the first 9 months of that initial 12 month guideline limit, tables granted exceeded the "maximum" by some 50%... clearly Macau's intent is to emphasize that they want more than just big casinos going up with all new property development, and we think MSC's cinema theme will include not just cinema but also the Dreamwork's piece as is now announced for Manila and likely other entertainment ideas which Ho has already pioneered at COD (e.g., dancing water shows).
Steve Wynn has been a brilliant operator for many years and we've often owned the shares (long a 4k share trade again currently), but we were surprised to see him so openly say he is "highly confident" in getting ~500 tables for the new Cotai property opening in 2016. Clearly WYNN's recent agreement to give employees there big comp increases and stock was done as part and parcel of his "negotiations" with Macau officials and to show Japan what they will do to accomplish end objectives in a Machiavellian mode.
Lawrence Ho has previously made mention of the "Asian way" on this topic [self-assured, confident but not forthcoming or almost brash as Steve was on the table topic], and our hunch they'll get a big chunk of tables for MSC is let's say up there with our "hunch" that the stock buyback would be resoundingly approved (that is now done at over 99% approval). MSC as with Manila is all about hitting the buttons on "something other than just gaming" diversification consistent with developing Macau's broader appeal for new IR approvals... but the decision makers also know the companies need to be able to offer gaming for patrons -- it is Macau after all.
Great promo article for MPEL re Manila and Macau; good to see this effort underway as they begin final approach sequence for COD manila grand opening... goog title for Phil Star article and photos
DreamWorks project in City of Dreams Manila ‘first of its kind in the world’
The Philippines’ “shopping mall king” Henry Sy (left) of SM and Belle Corp. teams up with Melco Crown billionaires Lawrence Ho (center) of Macau and James Packer of Australia to create City of Dreams Manila.
MACAU — A great example of how competition benefits the economy is the gaming industry of Macau, which used to be a one-company monopoly under Portuguese colonial rule. Ironically, it took the Communist rulers of Beijing, who are the new rulers of Macau, to break up the monopoly system and grant casino licenses to six competing operators. Macau has since then exploded in economic dynamism, investments, tourist arrivals and higher revenues, making even the former monopoly much richer because the overall economy expanded phenomenally. Macau has not only surpassed Las Vegas as the world’s biggest casino and entertainment hub, it is already six or seven times bigger in revenues.
One way to excel in a competitive environment is to join forces with world-class experts. This is the strategy of SM Group founder Henry Sy of Belle Corp., whose family is the Philippines’ leader in shopping malls and banking. They teamed up with Macau’s successful City of Dreams tycoons Lawrence Ho and his co-chairman, Australian billionaire James Packer, through the duo’s Melco Crown Entertainment Limited, to build the US$1.2 billion City of Dreams Manila.
In the glitzy City of Dreams Macau, Steven Spielberg’s DreamWorks project in the soon-to-open City of Dreams Manila was launched. The project is said to be “the first of its kind in the world.”
Due to competition from other mega-casino complexes in Entertainment City, which is rising in the Manila Bay...
thanks for the warning! Without you morons bashing the sector; we'd probably not have been able to get back on another trade below $201 this week. Too bad only 4k shares this trip, but MPEL, by far our largest position, has not even begun to mash the shorts yet. LOL
"If gaming is going to ramp" in Manila, COD is going to lead the parade with easily the finest property and best mgmt team involved there.
MPEL has more than 100 VIP tour operator relationship to fill the 300 premium suites as it opens COD Manila this year... Ho is a master and this showcase is his baby as a prelude to MSC Phase 1 and later Phase 2 and also a property or two in Japan.
As for what "some expect" -- to our knowledge of published reports, no analysts have any GGR scheduled in their COD Manila MPEL estimates for 2014. Moreover, Bain, who is clearly the most on his game of the sellside group, has the biggest number in there for 2015, and we think his number is light to what MPEL will deliver. Citi and CSuisse's weak sauce groups are the only other analysts with any GGR for manila even next year... hard to believe serious research directors would pay people for such "analysis".
Our sense on Ho's upod delivery has been correct for three years running... so we love that only a few serious pm understand the dynamics here -- those are the guys adding during the March Q between $37 and $45, and continuing to sop up all the lame shorting of late.
COD is focusing on destination family resort activities, shows etc for everyone in the family... and DWA is finding new ways to drive revenues out of the fgilm library characters as DIS has pioneered, except without needing to build out their own parks.
We look for more from both companies over time, as this is likely to drive more colab news between both companies, especially at MPEL's Macau Studio City, the entertainment/cinema-themed resort that will open next year.
OT to MPEL:
fwiw, we also own a small sleeve of DWA on the strength of the Cannes review notes from last week on their new movie "Dragon 2" and the reality that it will likely be the next $1B+ hit, restoring some luster to the DWA franchise story and the battered stock.
More "big" news about the draconian "crackdown"... soon there may be a peanut shortage on macau. Yeah, see... these two guys were arrested with two of the unauthorized and modified to circumvent registration handheld devices. They were caught in a taxi with the UnionPay machines (card swipe) machines and cash and casino chips and will be prosecuted for their crimes. These two guys bring the number of arrests in macau all the way up to 12 morons.
goog title for article... But where is Shuli Renn (Barron's "market impacting real time news"? LOL
"Macau police arrest 2 with China UnionPay mobile devices"