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squeezetracker 259 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 18, 2015 7:34 AM Flag

    Thanks tfbery.
    One thing successful people in china have figured out is that those flaunting their promo activities in china will be shown that playing by the rules is required. The real VIP players wanting to go outside of macau on tours do not need to be coaxed... they will find their own pathways.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Feb 18, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    Our resident Shirley Mason here is quite the piece of work on all of his moronic incarnations:
    toast/drjackcar/janetate/darqnite/mytek/idiotpumper/tahoejack/fcaholley/fcanyc/fcaimbecile/matrixtrade and all of his other numb effer alaises.

    Shirleydrjackcar made it clear he sold out at $28, then bought at $26 (as darqnite) then, stock at $24, says will buy at $17, then, as JaneTate, says he's now short at $25 (JaneTate so "happy to finally be short") as, after being called out by puthimon on the IKGH board that drjackcar and several of his Shirley Names there) have hyped for over a year while that stock went from $8 to $1, (he stops sharing Bain's increasingly useless opinions as toast and jane (using precisely the same paragraphs to cut and paste as drjackcar on the lvsforum -- LOL), then fails to cover here at the $21 retest, then, last week prior to the CC posts 30 or more times about how one would have to be an idiot to stay long into the disatrous CC coming (same on his ill-fated WYNN shorting), and, funniest to date, based on bs premarket prints and the first 20k shares of open tape prints tries to dis me that he'll cover at $21 -- less than a minute before the stock jolted higher and continuing the 30% plus run from $21. And, "blieve it or not", he now expects readers here to believe he is long now, and suggests he will sell it out at $30 and go short.

    "Shirley Mason" really ought to stick to hyping IKGH on his various new aliases... notice the brinerbriner one there sounds just like "drjackoff" as "puthimon" a quality poster who called out Shirley's bs and many aliases over time and also called IKGH a great short over a year before it dropped 90%.

    So now today Shirley suggests Grant Govertson is an idiot young guy living in the midwest and knows nothing about China or Macau, when Grant actually lives in macau. LOL

    The little dufus and his endless stream of bs is more ridiculous than previously thought... "happy he is short" though. ROTF

  • The utmost aim of the executives is to attract high roller players and offer unique facilities that would increase Goog title for the full article, but here is another fun article about COD Manila's prospects industry rag "Casino News Daily"

    ...the number of tourists visiting the Philippines and therefore, diversify country’s economy.

    However, the opening of City of Dreams Manila is not going to be just another event that will be forgotten by the communities within a week and they will be informed about its financial performance every now and then.

    On the contrary, the opening of the mega resort will have a great impact on the future development of the gambling sector in Asia.

    The company has already consolidated its positions on the Macau gambling market but in the Philippines, things are going to be slightly different.

    It is a common knowledge that the majority of Macau-based venues rely on gambling activities in order to generate decent revenues while the revenues from non-gambling activities are considered not too profitable.

    However, Lawrence Ho, the CEO of Melco Crown, said that the newly opened resort will generate excellent revenues from non-gambling options since the demand for leisure and entertainment was really high.

    What is more, Ho expects 50% of the total revenue to be generated from VIP players and 50% from mass market players.

    The biggest issue existing casinos will have to face is the shrinkage of their market since City of Dreams is perfectly capable of attracting large number of players.

    Not to mention the fact that the resort has the support of SM Group, the most prominent operator of shopping malls on the territory of the country.

    In addition, the complicated situation related to the revenues of Macau and Singapore-based casinos makes the chances of City of Dreams to triumph on the Asian gambling market even higher.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 17, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    part 2

    The optimistic forecast of Mr. Naguiat comes at a critical moment for the Asian gambling sector. Last month, the Chinese President announced that he is going to intensify the anti-corruption campaign, which is believed to be among the main reasons for the issues that have befallen the Asian gambling sector.

    However, the head of PAGCOR announced that the local gambling sector will continue developing regardless of the complicated situation in China because the Philippines’ gambling market does not rely solely on the Chinese players in order to generate a stable income.

    In conclusion, Mr Naguiat said that the more Chinese players come to the Philippines-based casinos, the better but the local gambling officials are hopeful that they will attract foreigners from all over Asia.

  • February 16, 2015 8:13 am·
    hotelviewAccording to the information revealed by the head of the Philippine Amusement Gaming Corp, Cristino Naguiat, the local gambling sector is going to experience further development and become even more competitive on a global scale.

    What made the PAGCOR official so convinced of the revival of the Philippines’ gambling segment was the increased number of VIP players attracted by the junket operators.

    The chairman of PAGCOR expressed his hopes that the local gambling sector is likely to undergo “another double-digit growth”. Apart from the success achieved by junket operators another key factor for the rapid growth of the casino industry is the opening of the mega resort City of Dreams, managed by Melco Crown Resorts Corp.

    An important specification has to be taken into consideration, though. Despite the optimistic prognosis, the Philippines gambling industry is not as well-developed as the Singaporean one.

    However, it is developing with a tremendous speed, while the neighboring gambling hubs keep reporting problematic revenues and decline of players.

    In comparison, Macau-based casinos have been reporting decline over the last couple of months, while the Philippines reported an increase equal to 16% YOY.

    In addition, the VIP and the junket players visiting the Philippines-based casino venues increased by 50% in one year.

    Despite the fact that the Philippines casinos are thriving, while the majority of neighboring venues are declining, it does not mean that the venues are going to operate without being pressed by the competition. It is a well-known fact that the South Korean and Vietnamese gambling markets are fast developing as well.

    Yet, City of Dreams Manila is expected to make the region a well-attended and appealing to players in spite of the rivalry.

    The expectations for the next few years are the gaming revenues to go beyond US$4 bi

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 17, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    thanks grftt. Good to see MGM putting up some good numbers on their MICE book and, weak table numbers in Vegas aside, their best conference call handling since 2007. Also fun to see them (as with WYNN and LVS) flattering Lawrence Ho some more with the (i) shifting of tables from VIP to mass and (ii) conversion of VIP players to direct credit play.

    As some here have agreed, the entire group was ridiculously oversold back when Shirley was saying "you can;t fight city hall", so good to see the progress put up by MPEL and even MGM as the group bounces hard on the others' "bad news" and fear-mongering about February and 1Q/1H comps while McKnight and the other really weak analysts and media dopes and coy Shirley Mason continue to talk about VIP and GGR being forever hosed. LOL

  • Reply to

    you can't fight city hall

    by toast22342000 Dec 17, 2014 8:02 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 17, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    mpfsld,

    How was your trip to "Mac"?

    p.s. Fun thread to revisit... fun to point out that on december 17th, with the stock printing $21.10 -- the lowest since the big poullback in July 2013 -- our Shirley Mason (aka toast/drjackcar/janetate and all the rest of his coy aliases) and his endless stream of bs dissing attempts directed at all posting anything worthwhile here, was trying to advance how dreadful the outlook was for Macau while I suggested those "following the weak analysts" in this sector was likely to be expensive for them turned out just as noted:

    "...selling in panic drops usually benefits no one except for the unhedged shorts. In fact, it may be that brighter times are just ahead... in the volatility chop this week, seems to some that the smart guys are buying all the daytraders and algo programs will short to them, including MPEL's aggressively taking in shares down here...
    So now, as even the shorts posting s head commentary here all month are pointing out that most analysts are sukin, those "listening to the analysts" are likely to wind up on thew wrong end of the reversal, just like they did in late 2012 and mid 2013 and early 2014 and reloading the dip before the retest/double top in March."

    Fun to note that the stock is up more than 32% since that perfect contrary indicator call he made here. LOL

  • Reply to

    Tourist double prior to CNY

    by grftt Feb 15, 2015 9:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 17, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    same tfbery!

  • MPEL and LVS are responding with very brightline measures to expand their efforts to "expand and encourage macau tourism with new attractions" apart from the ubiquitous integrated casino resorts on Macau... such activities are clearly differentiating MPEL and LVS from others if the UBS Asia analyst group is correct here.

    "Galaxy to get less tables than hoped, UBS says
    Macau’s Galaxy Phase 2 may only be granted up to 150 new gaming tables, far less than what it can accommodate, USB analysts argue.
    “There have been rumors that Galaxy [phase two] can accommodate 500 [new gaming tables]. The management [of the resort] hopes that they can have 300 [new gaming tables]. The market predicts that they get 200, and it is possible that ultimately they only get 100 to 150. The result will come out as soon as March or April,” said UBS Securities Asia analyst Anthony Wong, quoted in the media.
    The analyst quoted Macau government policy which has set a three percent target for the annual growth of gaming tables in the next decade, meaning the six new casino projects that are set to open in the coming years will share a total of 1,800 tables. Table allocation will be depend on how many operators already have and the extent their non-gaming facilities.
    Wong predicts that year-on-year gaming revenue in February will slump 37 to 42 percent.
    Comment: AGB has argued that while table count is a calculating factor, labour is a far greater issue facing the local operators."

  • There are various reasons MPEL's occupancy and ebitda/table and relative to footprint top the group, including hotel floorplates/layouts, design motifs, "happy" and elite service-oriented staff, catering well to Asian tastes, and operating many of the finest restaurants in Macau.

    "Melco Crown wins Forbes awards for Altira and Crown

    Melco Crown Entertainment’s Altira Macau and Crown Towers casinos have once again received the Forbes Travel Guide Five-Star Awards, taking the total to eight, the most a company in Macau holds.
    The Forbes Travel Guide assesses properties around the world on their hospitality and awards those that meet the highest standards.
    Among the nine restaurants in Macau awarded the Five Stars, four are from properties of Melco Crown Entertainment – Aurora, Tenmasa, Jade Dragon and The Tasting Room – while Altira Macau and Crown Towers at City of Dreams are two of the eight hotels awarded.
    “We are very proud to receive these accolades from Forbes Travel Guide. I am especially delighted that our efforts to achieve the highest standards in service continue to be recognized internationally,” Lawrence Ho, CEO of Melco Crown Entertainment, said in a statement."

    COD Manila will soon begin collecting "best in class" awards in Manila too, even before building what will assuredly be the iconic new tower under planning as Phase 2 of the COD Manila complex.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 16, 2015 7:49 AM Flag

    One does not need a "pitch" when facts are presented. What Lawrence shared about "diversification" is a simple statement of fact.

    As for Adelson, you guys reading the lvsforum board need to be mindful that reading myopic perspective tends to lead to myopic perspective...

    You can eagerly await Shel baby's response to what Lawrence had to say, and old boy Shelly did a good job articulating how building MICE facilities is all about "diversification" while he tried to marginalize COD's HODW as a "one time" visit thing... then there is reality. Gaming rev is the 90% of Macau's revenue base, whether Beijing or anyone else likes it or not... that will not change as there is no big footprint left to do something otherwise. And no, retail nor restaurants nor MICE nor rides are ever going to make a big landscape change. The golden goose is as Leonel Tac said -- a gaming mecca -- and elephant in a pink tutu is forever not that.

    HODW is a sold out show because it is forever dazzling and constantly updated/varied to keep it the singular show on Macau. MPEL now has the Dreamworks piece coming in as per top of this thread.

    Whether you LVS cheerleaders on lvsforum understand it or not does not matter, but the street has long discounted Shel as an eccentric, self-aggrandizing carnival shouter who doesn't have a clue how to interact with the street. LVS' hiding the sausage on the MBS proprty tax rebate is case in point, as is Shel's forever lack of understanding that having the "most ebitda" is not nearly the metric that adj ebitda/footprint . Shel's answer to GS analyst last yr that "we don't need a cfo because we all know what is needed there" made the point of the question: the buyside and analysts think LVS needs a real cfo who understands the idea of "birds of feather need birds of a feather to talk to." Hats off to spok and bd on that forum though -- note they often present counterpoint to myopic LVS bullishness... but you guys have at yourselves otherwise.

  • Reply to

    Tourist double prior to CNY

    by grftt Feb 15, 2015 9:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 16, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    thanks Dave... and great comment from you here as usual. I have yet to comment on VIP... while the multialias Shirley Mason continues to wail bs such as "VIP is dead", VIP is gone and not coming back" here, the reality is that rules compliant VIP is going a lot better than some think at select properties on Macau, especially the "large, quality" operators MPEL is catering to in Altira, having redone several salons for Suncity and other to pten outfits that still control some 75% of peak play. Fun update by MPEL for those paying attention on that... and another new refurbished floor at Altira opening this week -- just in time for the CNY celebrations (as you know, the tours tend to avoid the front half of the CNY week).

    As discussed here prior, last year the CNY felll on the first weekend of February... the celebrations this year really do not begin until this weekend. VIP play has tended to wait until after the first part of the CNY week, so we will see how the 2H of February goes...

    Golden Week timing aside, and repeating myself now as said a few times since December, but better days ahead for Macau and the group, but especially for MPEL as it positions itself as the model citizen in terms of being responsive to what Beijing is asking for by way of diversifying its Studio City property and adding the new Dreamworks tourist attraction to COD in Cotai.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 16, 2015 7:13 AM Flag

    Below, Shirley (jane tate, toast, drjackcar, dthe98, blaqnite, fcanyc, fcaimbecile, fcaholley, tahoejack, mytek, sheethead and all the rest) calls it "ironic" that i "left out" what he calss the "most important" comment on the call. The update to his macau GGR update is decidedly not that...

    Talk about ironic. This awipe is the moron who has said I told everyone to buy the stock at $45, when the reality is here for all to read Jan 14 and March 14 is I explained why we were selling/hedging trading and core positions at those levels. He's also the dufus who said it was going to $75 in 2014. ROTFLOL

    Unbelievable that he continues to make a complete jackass of himself on all of these aliases; this dolt with no integrity whatsoever thinks everyone else here is stupid and I'm being deceptive because that is who HE is. What a pos.

    Here he says Ho is painting a "rosy picture" and makes the imbecilic comment here I left out something important when the reality is that Lawrence reset the entire group 's expectations for VIP and mass recovery in the first week of August after Zhou, the biggest "tiger" of them all, was arrested for conspiracy. Ho told all that mass would run at leass than half the then ytd level for a while, and that VIP would remain subdued for several Qs. Then, this Q he made it clearthat he thinks the smoking ban is actually going to be a negative, and that the chill of the corruption crackdown will keep GGR subdued for longer than he previously thought (i.e., out to 2H15), but that will result in "only a slight neg YOY growth % for the year"... that is as compared with the "analyst" consensus of significantly worse YOY results for 2015. He is a moron an jackass alright; glad he stayed short from the double test low at $21.

    To be really clear, our core at $17 and trading slug just above $25 are unhedged. We think the group is cheap and the risk reward on MPEL today (i.e., SP relative to forward ebitda prospects) is very compelling. So do our pals.

  • Reply to

    just goes to show ya

    by toast22342000 Feb 12, 2015 9:33 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 15, 2015 8:17 AM Flag

    ok Shirley Mason (aka toast/janetate/blacknite/matrixtrade/drjackcar/dthe98/fcaholley/fcanyc/fcaimbecile/mytek/tahoejack and at least 3-4 others on this board alone)...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 15, 2015 7:33 AM Flag

    Another key point to expand on was Lawrence "clarifying", at the request of a few pm I'll say, what he meant by calling table shifting/allocation for Studio City "complicated" on the Sep Q cc in early November. Read the both transcripts for yourself, but the update is that their current concession authority is premise they can shift tables, they just do not want to do that since the Altira/COD tables are 100% owned by MPEL shareholders (notably Pack and Ho together have beneficial ownership of 68%+ of the shares) and the SC revenue sharing arrangements means they need that property to get its own richly deserved/economic Q of tables. Again, Ho's comments on the midyear review, employee contentment/compensation, Macaunese people and community as well as local business support/development and SC diversification said it all.

    That should render mrtaxxxxxx silent on the table allocation topic and the the Woody Allen sock he's earned on it... for those who don't know mr taxxxxxx is the longtime MPEL disser in various forums on MPEL not having a gaming license or tables for Studio City at least 4-5 times right here while he touts LVS shares all the way down from $75 to $36 three years ago and then again from above $80 back to below $50 in 2014. He's also dissed me several times for calling out his bs (LOL).

    As I have said a few times here of late, brighter days are ahead for the group and all of the U.S. based stocks are ridiculously cheap, but none moreso than MPEL. This story has the Manila, Studio City and Tower 5 catalysts coming as well as the extreme dislocation vs the group in adj ebitda valuation/quality execution. It should be fun watching MPEL lead the group into the next up cycle.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 14, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    More later, but the "rumor" that the first new property opening on Cotai this year (Galaxy's new Galaxy 2 casino resort) will get only a light table allocation makes sense when considering MPEL serious entertainment offerings coming to COD and Studio City 3-4 months after Galaxy 2 opens... and LVS is certainly making an effort with the new "J" theme park too ahead of opening their new Parisian early next year.

    Another nice subtlety on the conference call was Lawrence noting that they have all needed permits and approvals (building and labor) needed to finish up Studio City on schedule. That is a great reassurance on MPEL regulatory/governmental standing vs LVS' delays on both (now resolved by the new Macau regime as noted here prior so good for LVS), and WYNN's news last week that new Palace property on Cotai will be pushed back at least 3 motnhs or so because of permit/approval delays that the new govt in macau has just advised them was happening.

    Seems there is something to Ho's "Asian Way."

  • Reply to

    Capital Distribution Program

    by squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 7:31 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 14, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Thanks forthe note... several quality posters here.

  • From the forbes article:

    "Melco Crown Entertainment’s City of Dreams Manila expects to open the world’s first DreamPlay theme park, featuring DreamWorks characters and settings later this quarter“...

    Sands [LVS' Macau sub] is building a large theme park too, though the forbes article gives air to the view that Macau is and always will be, first and foremost, a gambling mecca as Leong Tac (Macau's brand new finance secretary) as said in so many words a few times. Whether politicians from Beijing like it or not, as commented here prior, Macau is never going to be a dancing elephant in a pink tutu. LOL

    "Planet J forecasts it will attract 3 million visitors during its first year of operation. We’ll see. While visitors such as CMRG’s Rein complain about the lack of family entertainment or more broadly about Macau’s lack of non-gaming attractions and Macau and mainland China officials talk about diversification, resort operators say they’ve learned the vast majority of visitors are interested in gambling and little else.

    The operators may be right, or it may be that be that they simply haven’t found the right non-gaming attractions yet... Planet J is a noble experiment at a time when Macau, with eight straight months of falling revenue in the books, could use some magic."

    We'll see is right, but good to see that LVS (with Circle J) is now piling on with MPEL (at both COD and Studio City) to give "diversification" a legit investment. If you missed the MPEL CC, give a listen -- as Lawrence said on it, Studio City is going to have more [legitimate] diversisfication/entertainment attractions than the rest of Macau properties combined... and that is on top of COD's HODW and the Dreamworks "Theme Park" noted above.

    The CC also covers rumors rumbling that the "first new resort on Cotai this year [i.e., Galaxy's huge new casino property] will get only a "light table allocation." Perhaps Galaxy needs to follow MPEL and LVS' lead with other "attractions" for patrons.

  • Blackrock (in several of their funds), Lazard and Harris (~doubled to almost 4% of outstanding shares) added large.

    Oppenheimer came onto a new position with 10,809,000 shares -- call it 2% of outstanding shares.

    Seems these high quality players all agree with Packer and Lawrence Ho -- who bought in some $200m worth of stock on top of the $100m done in September -- that MPEL shares were way too oversold between $27 on down to below $22...

    The stock is now up some 30% from the double bottom retest low... Here's some fun: up another 30% or so and we may sell out some of the trading sleeve (basis just over $25) on this.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    When they initiated paying the dividends on the 30% gearing concept, i made the point that the $ amts would be small for a while because earnings are certainly not the focus near term while they continue building out the "transformational" new properties. I also pointed out that the reason they were hopped up to pay some cash out was that Packer (co chairman and through his Crown resorts controlled sub owns 34%+ of MPEL following the buyback) and his separate company were in sore need of cashflow because Crown resorts was not generating much and they had several new properties planned near term. Since then, one of the Aussie deals fell apart for them, so that relieved some of the pressure on Crown's funding. MPEL also began the program with a one time special dividend... no doubt sized to cover Crown's need. Thankfully MPEL had/has HUGE FCF unless they need have Japan come about near term.

    Another point I made back then was that their largely institutional ownership (only about 5% is in retail hands as discussed a few times here), and any pm or individual in this for a legit ride much higher over the next couple of years, understanding taxes would rather have MPEL use tax efficient buybacks rather than paying cash dividends that are taxable to most U.S. (and likely Aussie) based shareholders. By their actions, management and the BOD agree; witness they spent over $300m on share buybacks between $22 and $27/share (on the way down and back up to $25) during September and then the three week cram in the 4th Q before they got going on the positive news flow of COD Manila.

    Better earnings are coming as Altira and COD Cotai make progress, but espec Manila and Studio City (2 phases on both of those) and then Tower 5 at COD Cotai come on stream, and some shareholders may want the bigger dividends. We hope they step up the remaining buyback (~$200m) and then add a new $500m authorization and stomp on that first. Longtimers all own another 2%+ of the company already!

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