So wait... does anyone know how many Nigerian healthcare workers are high end Macau gamers?
Have a look at the airlines... the Asian bird flu hurt that sector 10 years ago, and seek medical advice if meaningful to you personally, but this ebola requires fluid transmission (don't treat anyone with ebola if you have an open wound, but fret not about aerosol effects that bird flu (like any airborne flu). The airline stock collapse seems to be a cooked goose in recent minutes... maybe more than just us are adding to airline positions while they are on sale too? LOL
As for the gaming companies, we think even LVS and MGM are oversold down here so we just finished covering in the hedge shorts paired with the MPEL long. As for MPEL, they report tomorrow, so those trying to retest (again) the recent low of $29.76 ought to be in a big hurry... and who is buying up all those shares being thrown out with the bathwater?
Get out those knuckleball mitts (again) if you have one and the risk tolerance... Steve already told us what one needs to know about Macau 2H14.
For MPEL, consensus revenues are down to flat for the Q... that would make sense if 60% of MPEL's rev stream was VIP and they had group ave table yields on their main and premium mass floors. LOL
So the "esteemed" (LOL) analyst group thinks MPEL is going to fare worse on macau revenue generation YOY than did LVS, WYNN and now MGM? That is um... unlikely in our view... but fun to see the JPM report suggesting the end of the Macau GR growth story because of the VIP influences of late, as if that is the end of anything at all. And how about the Zacks piece of work? IBD's "journalist" repeating his ignorance? Shuli raging on?
You know, if Macau VIP gaming revenue was going to zero (it is down to a mere 1/2 of $50b annual run rate currently LOL), then MPEL, who is well ahead of the group on locking down elite mass/premium mass franchise players, would fare better than its peers on adj ebitda... but don't tell any of the "analysts" or media filling their days and clients' mailboxes with Chicken Little pieces entitled "The Sky is Falling on Macau, and the Sun will Never Shine Again There" ... LOL
Those who have followed the sector going back almost exactly two years ago or more have seen this ridiculously lame "expert opinion" before... the street went to hold or sell ratings with MPEL at $12, LVS at $38, WYNN at $90, and MGM at $9. Longtimers will recall we couldn't believe it then either... not so much the stupidity-- this sector has always had weak analysts going back to Murren's time as a sellsider (which makes his dissing of analysts on the CC even funnier than most realize) -- but for the opportunity to get very long the shares on the cheap again.
On that note, PIMCO's guy was referencing MPEL was cheapest iun the group on adj eps... hey Pimco, do that math on ebitda and adj ebitda metrics... and consider that the adj ebitda run rate will be close to double present levels in little more than 2 years.
We'll pass on a detailed review as it rattles the cage of the yahoos focused only on LVS or WYNN or MGM or the older, slower growing HK listed companies, but here's a quick recap of what the three "other" U.S. listed companies have shared for the Q.
Consider the peers broadly to see they are generally improving in ebitda despite their specific weaknesses this ytd. LVS has shied away from VIP much like MPEL and also had very fat holds that are not sustainable or consistent with the haircut numbers carried into the CC by the street. Yes the properties are full and adr's are up, but not great and where is the prgoress to come since they suck at direct credit as amply shown... and Singapore is ok, too... just not fabulous as they had hoped. Surprised the stock didn't get set back a bit more than it has.
WYNN's VIP orientation is now morphing into a copy of MPEL's elite mass business plan, replete with Steve's tip of his hat to Lawrence as a "couple of years ahead of us" of late. And Steve no, we nor any other sophisticated pm thinks 45% mass/direct credit premium mass holds are sustainable, and we know you won't keep on sending your jet fleet after the Asian guys now that they are figuring out the central planners are not headhunting VIP tours or their players with all the noise bs now on fade.
As for MGM, good thing is that the blue hairs still pull slots and that the MCE business is alive and well (if maxing now) in Vegas, but for all of Murren's bs re coming clean on THEIR construction timeline concerns for THEIR properties, he really ought to mind his own problems when others do not have the same issues. MGM's 2Q numbers sucked in macau on VIP (50% of the business down 20% = down 10%) and was ok on mass (50% of the business up 40%= up 20% so blended to up 10% for the Q). The serous pm get it Murren, even if the media and "analysts" you made fun of as not even reading [SEC files] do not.
MPEL Q? 20% VIP down 20, 80% mass up 35%+ = -4 + 28 = up 24%? LOL
I posted about this until i realized the video was in the headlines, but I agree with your comments.
The best part is that the typically very conservative Pimco is now getting long equities but also involved in this sector internationally. When you consider they have arguably the most dialed in international research team in the business of capital management, it is less than obvious to realize the current discounting is premised on more than a temporary blip in gaming rev growth -- and Pimco obviously does not see it that way.
This guy interviewed doesn;t hve the details, but he got to some of the key points on capital, ROIC and adj ebitda... the research staff no doubt has it all right on BOTH phases (not just one) for MSC, Tower 5 at COD Cotai, COD Manila (not mentioned today), and increased dividends and buybacks coming down the road to japan.
Judging from your posts under messages, it is clear you know little about stocks generally -- and absolutely nothing about MPEL... just like Shuli Renn, the IBD tool, and this WSJ pseudo journalist who know nada about anything. You really ought to stick to growing coffee, chewing cocoa leaves, and bonging low grade reefer while the shorting the shitey stocks you wet yourself over.
This stock is going to mohawk, HAM, those stupid enough to short one of the best growth stories of this year and next... but then we whatever you do, stay short until after the earnings release this week... the F dufus crew at Zacks thinks MPEL is going to miss. LOL
and Steve isn't flying the junket crowd into Vegas this month... LOL
Looking forward to MPEL's update this week... MGM's mass numbers were solid for them... MPEL's should be best in group.
Ignoring that VIP has declined almost 20% yoy for Macau and that much of that "decline" actually sits in converted "premium mass" of the top venues these days, it is interesting to note that Steve said WYNN was picking up VIP in July and that MGM said that "political issues" in China are compressing VIP play in Macau.
Those differing perspectives are borne out in the july market share data for those two companies... WYNN grabbed an additional 1.7% of the overall GGR (i.e., incl VIP) while MGM saw its shares of Macau GGR drop by 1.5% of the market to only 8.8% in total.
In the context of MPEL (and LVS) fading intentionally away from VIP in Macau, essentially ceding that business to others ytd (having gone from 50/50 VIP and mass last year through June) to more like 80%+ mass and only ~20% VIP in MPEL's revenue mix, it is great news to see MPEL holding share above 12%, especially if Steve is correct that VIP is now ready to lift over the 2h14, however gently.
For the 2Q14, MGM's China adj ebitda was up 10.3% incl the $14M "rebranding" costs there. 10.3%...
During the first Q, despite MPEL's strategic shift away from VIP (which ran at over 50% of GGR last year but was down to less than 25% of MPEL's GGR during the March Q) MPEL's adj ebitda growth yoy was 31% -- THREE TIMES the growth rate seen at MGM for the June Q and done without any increase in Macau footprint.
MPEL continues to throttle back from VIP in Macau and will likely report that VIP comprised less than 20% of total GR during the June Q.
MGM's cc had several comments fun to chuckle about, but nothing to suggest the sky is falling on macau. LOL
just took off the 5k at 49.50 at 50.20... no need to piggy... we have no core here these days, but we'll trade small chunks like a bandit as this rallies back above $60 near term.
And just for the putzes, we'll even share our trades when we have time. LOL
Takeoff is done... now for the long flight at high and ascending altitude
This is great news... Ho calls MPEL's mission "shaping the future of Asian gaming" and he's certainly been brilliant on Macau and likely to show EVERYONE what he can do in Manila in terms of developing legitimate entertainment and resort accommodations in addition to best in class gaming operations.
MPEL's has earned a spot on the roster in japan, and great to see him out there riding high.
"Retail and commercial travel is soaring these days -- the airlines' rasm, casm, load, ebitdar and eps data for the 2Q and increased guidance info is going to be stunning too. Do note the hoteliers and car rental agencies, the other big pieces of business for PCLN and the other OTAs, are also cranking. PCLN will be reporting record numbers this Q and the smart money is setting up for the blow out Q and ripping move coming."
Is anyone reading here surprised EXPE has excellent results? LOL PCLN is next
Lake Mead is a great place to go boating, just 30 miles from Vegas... The drought is kind of ruining it these days though.
Steve could sell a boat there after the water is completely drained by a very thirsty So Cal -- leaving only a Mirage (pun intended) out there in the desert.
But you are right toast as is drjack: Steve's excitement about Cotai is not misplaced... delighted that his new water feature "Palace" there will be what Bellagio is to the Vegas strip... a landmark traffic draw, benefitting other properties while they benefit the Palace. And Studio City (phase one that is) will be done at least 6 months before the new WYNN property. All great news for MPEL's franchise development and adj ebitda growth.
Looks like the box hedges are about all off now... and even the dumbest of the analysts are figuring it out after Steve raved about July being off to a GREAT start in Macau...
the bs shorting gig is up now...
Her entire body of work is dog S. Same for "analyst" McKnight. WYNN's earnings beat was on the very large bump in mass play and mega hold of 45% on same! They also put up way better than forecast Vegas because of their flown in Asian players. Steve also commented on Latin players -- never heard him talk about that before. LOL.
Listen to the whole call incl Q&A to appreciate it, but they are very focused on and doing a good job converting VIP players to direct (premium mass VIP). They are also committed to not talking about how much VIP is now shifted over to premium mass. I wonder how many people think that is a trivial shift... we certainly do not! In fact, check back to last Q's report to note Steve tipping his hat, sincerely, to MPEL's leadership in this regard. Steve says he's confident WYNN will get its share of premium mass players or "his name isn't Steve", and i am confident he will too -- as I have said, he's a brilliant operator, almost as good as Lawrence. LOL
MPEL's going to get it share too -- a comment Ho said in an eloquent yet understated way on MPEL's 1Q call, and MPEL's mix is about 30% ahead of WYNN as of last Q and likely working on making further progress this Q. Everyone at the party should understand by now that Macau VIP was weak last Q on this conversion aspect as well as the action to use the private jet fleets at WYNN (and perhaps MGM) to bring Asian players into Vegas as an opportunistic response to all of the Tam and noise bs of the media and weak analysts covering the sector. Steve shared his contempt for all of that in a careful way on the call... fun to listen to if you understand Steve.
August 7 should be a fun day for MPEL longs.
WYNN's entire call made it clear that the bs noise is just that, and the short gig is up on Macau. Check it out when you can.
When you get a chance to listen to the call, note the disgenuine comp/compliments leveled at LVS. funny... but notice they don't compare themselves to MPEL.... chasing MPEL's tactics on premium mass conversion from VIP -- and not sharing the math, telling the furst analyst, who must be reading our papers, "you are ahead of us on this Tom." lol
just blew it out at $60.01. LOL
we'll buy it again if the morons will short it down to below $59.5 pre call... but enough tooling ion this idiotputz.