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squeezetracker 245 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2015 3:50 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • Blackrock (in several of their funds), Lazard and Harris (~doubled to almost 4% of outstanding shares) added large.

    Oppenheimer came onto a new position with 10,809,000 shares -- call it 2% of outstanding shares.

    Seems these high quality players all agree with Packer and Lawrence Ho -- who bought in some $200m worth of stock on top of the $100m done in September -- that MPEL shares were way too oversold between $27 on down to below $22...

    The stock is now up some 30% from the double bottom retest low... Here's some fun: up another 30% or so and we may sell out some of the trading sleeve (basis just over $25) on this.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    When they initiated paying the dividends on the 30% gearing concept, i made the point that the $ amts would be small for a while because earnings are certainly not the focus near term while they continue building out the "transformational" new properties. I also pointed out that the reason they were hopped up to pay some cash out was that Packer (co chairman and through his Crown resorts controlled sub owns 34%+ of MPEL following the buyback) and his separate company were in sore need of cashflow because Crown resorts was not generating much and they had several new properties planned near term. Since then, one of the Aussie deals fell apart for them, so that relieved some of the pressure on Crown's funding. MPEL also began the program with a one time special dividend... no doubt sized to cover Crown's need. Thankfully MPEL had/has HUGE FCF unless they need have Japan come about near term.

    Another point I made back then was that their largely institutional ownership (only about 5% is in retail hands as discussed a few times here), and any pm or individual in this for a legit ride much higher over the next couple of years, understanding taxes would rather have MPEL use tax efficient buybacks rather than paying cash dividends that are taxable to most U.S. (and likely Aussie) based shareholders. By their actions, management and the BOD agree; witness they spent over $300m on share buybacks between $22 and $27/share (on the way down and back up to $25) during September and then the three week cram in the 4th Q before they got going on the positive news flow of COD Manila.

    Better earnings are coming as Altira and COD Cotai make progress, but espec Manila and Studio City (2 phases on both of those) and then Tower 5 at COD Cotai come on stream, and some shareholders may want the bigger dividends. We hope they step up the remaining buyback (~$200m) and then add a new $500m authorization and stomp on that first. Longtimers all own another 2%+ of the company already!

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    Hey huzzbuzz and colgate,

    Good to have you guys both still here too... and glad to clarify the div huzz.

    a few comments re the capital distributions efforts in reply to colgate's point on a new thread titled "Capital Distribution Program"

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    huzzabuuz,

    The $.0171 you listed is per the "ordinary shares" which are the HK listed shares and is the amount, in USD, payable to those holding the HK shares while they are still dual listed. As discussed here a few times, the conversion to get the ADS amount is to multiply by 3 so like this: 3 x $.0171 = $.0513 per ADS share.

    Here is the part of the press release that just says the answer (without the explanation I just shared) that is relevant to U.S. listed shares -- the American Depositary Shares:

    "The Quarterly Dividend of approximately US$0.0513 per ADS, less any applicable fees and
    charges, will be paid on or about March 16, 2015 by the depositary, in cash in US dollars, to ADS
    holders of record as of March 4, 2015 in accordance with the deposit agreement."

  • Payable on March16 ( 2-3 plus slop days for U.S distribution) to shareholders of record as of March 4. They don't specify, but likely goes ex div on March 2. Ask your advisor if it matters to you.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    ot

    for anyone who cares, we own 3x as much TRIP as PCLN, but added to both this morning. No current position in EXPE, but adding a bunch to AAL and UAL now.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    Part 2

    7. Midterm Review Process: Lawrence explains why they are looking forward to the midterm review. Thinks MPEL will come through the review with "flying colors and at the top of the group based on MPEL's involvement to diversify Macau, develop its people, engage/db with and encourage growth of local establishments, comply with all applicable rules, laws and governmental directives.

    8. Best in Group EBITDA 9relative to footprint): Despite low holds and slightly lower mass hold (win rate) on table games vs PY, MPEL's COD ebitda was over 85% mass, and ignoring that some of Altira offline for repositioning and all of the noise/corruption crackdown, over 80% of overall ebitda was mass/direct credit play. That reamins best in the business on Macau.

    9. COD manila: Ho said this is going very well and he's really pleased to have the "exciting, transformational COD Manila" opened now and looking forward to sharing the early results on that on the next call.

    I'll share more later, but listen to the call before selling any shares at these ridiculously discounted levels.

  • Longs ought to listen to the replay if you missed the call just now, but this conference call handling was excellent with great updates on many important aspects of this company's future.

    1. Mkt share: Taking share across the board: mass, RC (VIP) and machines.

    2. Record Table drop and machines at record levels at COD Cotai.

    3. Altira: has had many VIP rooms offline during repositioning effort to focus on the biggest, quality junkets, but they will all be back operating as of next week. Sun City is ready to go there now, and another large operator (no announcement as of yet) will make it 3 of the 4 largest tour operators doing business at Altira now, with 2 all new salons. The naysayers can't figure it out, but those bringing legitimate (non-crooks) in on quality tours in compliance with all applicable rules/screening/funding sources are continuing to play in Macau, and MPEL is taking share these days.

    4. Studio City Tables -- Expect to get at least 400 tables, optimal is 500, but if less, "as licensee" (says Lawrence) they can still move tables from other locales, but the comments about MPEL shareholders first tells macau officials they need to be "fair and reasonable" to avoid crimping style for SC. In other words, MPEL will continue to focus its table allocations on its 100% owned properties if forced to allocate them within all of its properties. See #5 below.

    5. "Diversification and Other "Tickmakrks": Ho explains here why SC offers up more "tourism/family entertainment diversification than the rest of Macau COMBINED." Makes the clear case MPEL should do as well or better than any other company on getting tables for SC (not mentioned was Phase 2 in the balance).

    6. Macaunese People Development: Big tickmark here. Says LT retention plan was a smash hit vs ST bonuses and that MPEL is developing its employees and has excellent relations with them and the "happiest employees on Macau." Says not concerned about finding new staff for needs.

    cont

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    great update this morning!

  • Reply to

    Anyone else go short at end of day, yesterday?

    by dthe98 Feb 11, 2015 10:21 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    ok ShirleyJaneTatetoastdrjack,

    Just "feeling good" about shorting the absolute top yesterday? Ya, okay dude.

    What happened to your "happy to be short" at $20? and you must have forgotten that under this dthe98 alias you used to feign being an old #$%$ with Fox News conservatism as your point of knowledge and point of view on world currency markets, economic policy and political posturing of china and the U.S. govt. Now you have migrated to where all of your aliases are just a little smart #$%$ who sucks at debate, makes a jack#$%$ out of himself with all of them, and hides behind 10 or so known aliases trying to avoid everyone seeing what a little dip S you are.

    As for your little trading insights here today? LOL What of the desperado "bashing" (more at little girl squirming) of WYNN results down about $10 last week? Short that one last night at the top too? ROTFLOL And the items you list that will cause vomiting over the next two months? All known items JaneTate/toast/drjack... they were the premise for morons to short this down to $20 twice, where smarter money went large and pulled hedges on this again.

    Just a hunch, but the vomit likely ahead is going to be all over your own little lap and shoes while you spew more of your multialias dialogue with yourself in a brew of bs contrition, conflation and ad hominem bs.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo vs Union gaming

    by dthe98 Feb 10, 2015 9:35 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Shirley,
    nothing new there... in fact, most of that was said by Lawrence Ho on the June Q conference call.

    But read your #$%$ agin... the "new normal" is actually the bull case for companies focused on Macau mass play -- MPEL front of the pack on that metric with 85% of adj ebitda coming from mass last Q, a number (adj for smoking rooms that is) sure to increase for them on Macau rolling forward.

    More? The "value guys" are already in hard here... these guys (LOL) are the ones scooping up shares the shorting geniuses have been sourcing for us. ROTFLOL The "incremental buyers", the momentum dopes that chased this above $40 last yer (twice) and then shorted it below $26 (twice) are all conflated and buried on their shorts, just like you here.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    You (casinos, VIP tour operators, banks, customers) play by the rules, or you will be found out...

    And no Shirley, they don't execute people for gambling... that is why mass is still going solid (adj for smoking floor reclasses of VIP tables), and why some 75% of VIP RCT continues in the ten largest VIP tours that dominate the Macau landscape, even though your little IKGH catastrophy (how about that conflated contrition boy) has you bewildered. The violent and otherwise abhorrent crimes Lui Han and his pals were convicted of is what got them their fates... not money transfers, some of which may have run through Macau bank channels and were found through Beijing/Macau's longstanding review policies.

    Anyone paying attention (and not trying to deceive folks here) can discern that VIP is not MPEL's story on Macau -- they are ahead of EVERY OTHER COMPANY, including LVS, in terms of deriving best in group table revenue and adj ebitda relative to footprint because they have been (for years now) and will remain focused on "the premium end" of mass visitation, entertainment and gaming.

    Manila? Early days and VIP will matter there, especially if Beijing continues to press the "golden goose" there with restrictive policy mandates while routing out the bad guys... but Manila is already surprising the naysayers, they just don't know it yet.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    Shirley Mason (dthe98/JaneTate/toast/drjackcar etc) suggests that no one with money will game in Macau for fear of being executed. That is sounding incredibly desperate now Shirley...even as the stock is up some 30% from the double bottom retest where you told us you were "still short and very happy." Close to stupifying...

    EVERYONE knows that endless noise elements (smoking bans, unauthorized UnionPay card swipers and other scrutiny, visa "restrictions", triad money transfers, review of all bank transfers and a host of other items that have been under review for years now) and certainly Xi Jinping's "corruption crackdown" has had a chilling effect on VIP and premium mass (direct credit) play in Macau. That is not news. It is why GGR is down by what Lawrence Ho called a "plummet"... what is news is that the group is now moving up (again, MPEL up 30% despite the WYNN/LVS "bad news" on Dec Q and the Vegas news awful to boot) long before even mass GR begins to turn up, let alone VIP RCT.

    Here's what this desperate little Shirley Mason guy fails to grasp (at least with his underhanded postings here and on other boards/forums) about GGR. EVERYONE is figuring out that guys like Lui Han, convicted of complicity in murdering at least 8 people, harboring military grade weapons and explosives, conspiracy charges involving blackmail and interaction with cronies -- the latter now serving time after "ratting out" Han and 4 others executed two days ago -- and "protection" from the former Minster of Security (Zhou) who, along with lots of Xi Jinping's politcal foes, has been in PRC detention as noted here going back to last summer... are not going to be gambling in Macau or anywhere else for a long time if ever. None of the Beijin tiger and flies that went the way of roof jumping are going to be gaming either.

    And yes, it is clear that anyone who interacted with these guys and others in same boat want to be seen anywhere with money on display. The message is clear...

  • Reply to

    Turnaround

    by grftt Jan 27, 2015 7:38 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    great share here Dave.

  • Reply to

    "City of Dreams Manila Visionaries"

    by squeezetracker Feb 3, 2015 9:51 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    in case you missed it

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    If you missed it, see my follow up thread on the 5 really "corrupt" murderers, weapons abusers, fraud conspirators, blackmailers and subversive activities that the Beijing regime decided to execute yesterday...

    The former Security Minister of china (~ the equivalent of the U.S. CIA/FBI directors) has also been in detention since late July, timed about to the day the macau names began to really drop... now that the key Tigers and Flies surrounding these corruption lynchpins are going down hard together, and all of the noise about corruption throughout china is perhaps peaking as we write, just maybe the worst of the bs media and lame analyst reporting on the "crackdown" will begin to abate in time for the smartest of them to save what they have left of their face...

    Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has all their big clients back in the shares as of their january call that (1) the sky is not falling on Macau, (2) there is no big bad wolf unless one is a #$%$, and (3) it is time to get back in the pool for the ride to a materially stronger 2H15.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    another perspective worth thinking about...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    bump for those just hearing the MPEL name... it won;t take you long to figure out the handful of posters worth reading here...

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Read this and then read the dip #$%$ article from james Detar in IBD. Look for Shuli renn to write about how awful February comps will be at least 4 more times before march as well. LOL

  • goog that title to read more about why Lui han was a big tiger... but his connectivity the biggest "tiger" as the real target of Xi Jinping, is telling. Former national Security Minister Zhou being the BIG BIG target of Xi Jinping's corruption crackdown. And for all the dip #$%$ media and analysts regurgitating their nonsense about Macau being the target of the "tigers and flies" corruption witch hunt and also the "foxhunt" running down billionaires the PRC is chasing around the world to get back the allegedly stolen money they "illicitly transferred" away from China, give a good hard read to the articles in the WSJ, FT, Guardian and The Economist on "execution of Lui Han" over the last two days. Some may appreciate, as we do, the fact that those real publications writing about the execution yesterday and the pursuit of Zhou and his lesser cronies has no mention at all of Macau or gambling per se being the issue that Beijing is hunting. Rather, the focus here is all about murder, conspiracy, subversion, other violent crimes and extortion/blackmail, and weapons charges as well as defrauding the PRC and stealing the people's wealth. Well, one of the articles does point out that Lui Han was infamous for flaunting his mink coats and exotic cars and fancy dining habits.

    Some of the long time readers here may enjoy that focus as much as we do... and the reality that Macau is being rendered a whistle clean place for tourists to visit grandeur, entertainment and luxurious relaxation, shopping, dining and recreation -- and MPEL is leading the charge on meaningful "diversification" with Studio City.

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