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Quiksilver Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 233 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 10 hours ago Flag

    bump for those who missed it -- also see recap comments in ggrasia article.

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 10 hours ago Flag

    No, pretty much you are the only idiot here.

    The other multiliias poster was a seller at the top and didn't reload until down about $10 before selling out in the high 20s and then reloading some at $25 as he documented here and elsewhere on various pseudo names and alaises. He's no idiot like you though -- he can actually write and is reasonably bright... he just lacks integrity and consistency, has no sense of couth, and is intentionally underhanded and deceitful as called out on this board.

    And several of those who considered my suggestion to sell or lighten or hedge out the double top (both times) above $43 last January and March thanked me for that perspective right on this board and on email.

    You really ought to find something to do with your time -- you sukk at dissing people and must simply like being stomped on. Thanks for the entertainment tho... fun to call it out your stupidity when i see it and have time.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 10 hours ago Flag

    goos,
    Great to listen to upbeat comments on LVS and Macau as the "Greatest gaming market in the world" (per Rob). They did a great job emphasizing the positives and fun to see them address "new Macau" by saying "diversification" at least 25 times on the CC... Also good to see their emphasis on adj ebitda... that is the important measure and why mass/premium mass is the future for MPEL and LVS. Shel still thinks absolute level of ebitda makes LVS best in class and all that matters though. He stills struggles with the difference between that and what matters more than total ebitda: adj ebitda/capital invested (cash ROIC). No one is ahead of MPEL on that metric in Macau, not even Steve now that VIP is haircut 40% or more at WYNN.

    LVS numbers (not so much the script) also make it obvious that Vegas is hurting -- as discussed here while the weakest of the bunch and the idiots on this board were dissing macau last summer, so much for the big Vegas "resurgence" the analyst group was touting last summer while the May and June fly ins from China were happenings, along with Steve's "Latins" LOL

    A point of departure: Shel's comments on HODW and entertainment at COD were out of touch. Shel does not understand that HODW is an "every visit" thrill for most of MPEL's "premium" end of the market clientele and that the show does change over time. He apparently also does not realize what MPEL is bringing to the party with Studiop City phase 1 and then 2.

    And Shel has in fact done a great "diversification" service to Macau with all the MICE facilities... hat off to him for that investment -- all of the companies benefit from big events and it helps other properties fill up rooms (MPEL's COD is the best occupied property on macau week in and week out as you likely know -- 100% last three Qs running).

    Again, good to hear an upbeat assessment on things going better than the bs media and weak analysts would have guessed, especially in the very soft Dec Q.

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    I see that below sheethead doesn't grip what an idiot he is yet... what a pos on all 10 or so aliases.

    Everyone here longer run knows we bailed on the trading allocation and hedged out the core at $43 in January 2014 and on the next trade chunk out again at $43 in March after $38 reload...

    Here's an excerpt (January 2014 with stock at $43.50 and dufusboy calling for $75 in 2014):

    "several of the nubs here trying to dis me (and other longtime quality guys like grftt) are also on that thread and other topics with ongoing examples of cluelessness. Eyes wide open folks; when dippy new #$%$ trading club idiots and other clueless individuals try to dis guys who have extensive knowledge of the markets, sector and individual companies are making points that putzes (see definition below) attempt to refute with ignorance, it is time to consider that this stock changing hands from high quality institutional sponsorship with extraordinary niche knowledge to those chasing [2013's performance here]. Be careful if you have serious money allocated here in an unhedged allocation."

    then, on that same thread I expanded on that for Bentley when asked for more info:
    "Those who have not been around or forget how several here tried to dis me for calling the stock "frothy" above $45 and suggesting, on january 18 and 19 (the first of the double top highss -- see comments below ) that some who had nice gains along with us might want to consider hedging or selling some along with more reasons for that assessment, might want to read this thread top to bottom."

    Everyone who can read beyond sheethead/mytek/tahoe/idotpumper/fcaholly/fcaimbecile/fcanyc/dthe98 and his other labels here can just laugh.

    The longtimers since 2009 know our long time success with this stock, and that we own the core at $17, and the current trade allocation right at $25 now... unhedged long the core at $17 and trade chunk at $25.

    Again, just for Shirley Mason, the $17 and $25 #s are before hedge gain numbers.

  • Reply to

    Turnaround

    by grftt Jan 27, 2015 7:38 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 11 hours ago Flag

    Dave,
    Even Steve Kent (Goldie Suchs LOL) is back to bullish this week after repeating his BUY in July (WYNN AT ~$200 and LVS at ~$78) and then again in mid Sep on WYNN and LVS (at around $187 and $65 or so) before backing down his rating on both just before the bottom last month. The two multialias tarts here think the analyst group had the doom for 2014 called out in January, a month after the dumbest of the two was hyping MPEL would get to $75/share last year. Talk about funny... that was right when I suggested selling some/hedging out at $43+ (as we did and i know you did too Dave).

    Listen to the LVS call tonight, Shel had fun kicking Kent in the nuts and all the exec guys chuckled about it. Maybe the LVS execs don't realize these guys get fired if they miss 5-6 important group turns in a row? LOL

  • Some new joiners to the "turn is here" parade -- 5 published reports this saying that things are now on the mend in Macau and china citizenry sentiment on the economy is improving.

    BBN issued this article too.

    Jan 27, 2015

    Macau casino shares jumped in Hong Kong trading after gaming revenue in the world’s biggest gambling hub gained last week, which analysts took as a sign the industry may be out of its free-fall of late last year.

    The industry’s gross gaming revenue for table games rose 6 percent for the week ending Jan. 25 from a week earlier, which “could further indicate stabilization” after President Xi Jinping’s Macau visit last month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts led by Billy Ng wrote in a note. The measure still fell 7 percent compared with a year ago.

    Xi’s visit coincided with government efforts that included plans to crackdown on illicit funds funneled through Macau amid his anti-graft campaign, leading to seven straight months of declines that peaked at a 30 percent plunge in December. Union Gaming analyst Grant Govertsen upgraded the sector to a buy rating yesterday, writing that evidence is mounting “that we’ve finally reached the bottom,” and Macau gaming names “are poised for a rally”.

    Shares of Wynn Macau Ltd. (1128) jumped 8.4 percent to end at HK$21.90 by the close of trading, the biggest increase since last April. MGM China Holdings Ltd. (2282) and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. (27) both gained 6.5 percent, Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (MPEL) was up 5.6 percent, and Sands China Ltd. (1928) increased 3 percent. The benchmark Hang Seng index fell 0.4 percent.

    The Bloomberg Intelligence Macau (China) Gaming Market Index slumped almost 40 percent last year, amid policies that included restrictions on the use of UnionPay’s debit cards at casinos, making it harder for bettors to buy pricey items that they exchange for cash to gamble with. The index closed 1.8 percent higher yesterday, and gained a further 5.9 perce

  • Reply to

    About Union Gaming's new research piece...

    by squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 26, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    They see VIP becoming less important over time because the chinese govt and investors and mgmt teams will all want the reduced risk of having blow ups on corrupt players/tours/activities in macau. Union Gaming, as more of a boutique consulting firm for private funds than meaningful research unit for brokerage purposes, is focused on all of that integrity stuff for macau operators because clients have asked them to look into it. Those who have read their report know they don;t really give much thought to December or 4Q results -- for the reasons I have discussed many times as noted above... what matters is that they think mass will soon be back in stride and that the 2H numbers will be back to growth trend... and, while dthe98 and all of his opther aliases have suggested "VIP is DEAD" forever, Union Gaming essentially says ~"corruption and illegal money transfers and concealment of dubious players is forever dead, but real VIP will remain in good stead, and so will premium mass, esp as new properties come on 2h.

    Joining first "back in the water" Morgan Stanley, Union revised their rating from neutral to BUY, raised their price target to $31 (MS is at $28 -- easy bogey for 20% upside needed for BUY)and later raises) and suggests owning them before they all take off as the street gains comfort with the forward progress.

    Lots of good news to come from here forward, esp for MPEL and WYNN... or you can focus on what the idiots at Mcquarrie,Zacks, karen Twang, Isis Wong, and dippy KcKnight as well as Shuli Renn, James Detar and the multialiasssess here have to spew about macau being a sell...

    But a hardy F off to all of those putzes-- they deserve what is coming as I wrote with the stock at $21. And yes, the stocks certainly can still retestrecent lows, but serious money sentiment is shifting back to positive on the group and hedges are largely off if my optics.

    Did i say F off to the two idiots with 10 aliases here? Yeah -- go F yourselves, all of yous. LOL

  • You have Shirley mason comments trying to dis Union Gaming's piece on macau on another thread here (unless he deletes them), and I called out his bs on that aliasss solely because prior to signing in I see he wrote some juvenile bs about shoving quant up my sleeve -- what a little F cork soaker -- on all 10 or so aliases he uses here. On this topic (his thread) his comments are disgenuine and lacking in knowledge as usual, but they comically reveal his lack of sophistication about the markets... come to think of it, he does just that on all of his aliases used here.

    A prelude to what Grant had to say in his piece though, as i have said since November on many threads, the month of December will suck and so will the quarter -- but that has little to do with anything about what will unfold in 2015 -- a very tough comp for Q1 (last Feb was the end of ramping the new LVS cotai central and first CNY with all of the new Cotai properties up and ramped and this was all pre July's revelations on "tigers and flies" and jinping's "Foxhunt" for his political foes, say nothing of all the bs noise on visas, smoking bans, Lisboa's Goldfish Bowl, car trunk card swipes and closeout of a hundred or so marginal VIP tours that don;t matter to macau long term as the big/legit/ quality VIP tours are still running as discussed here often. Rough comps aside, the quality buysiders in these names know what matters is sustainable ebitda, and no one is doing that better than MPEL with the premium end of mass play.

    Here's my take on what union Gaming's report says...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 25, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    thank you Ed... with at least two multiple aliases aholes here, iy is good to see a few longtimers including grftt and yourself are still here. Better days ahead for Macau, and MPEL is better positioned than any other company for what is unfolding in Macau and Manila.

  • along with his 6+ other aliases he uses to make an #$%$ of himself everywhere on yahoo. too stupid... 78 posts on this new pos since Thursday. Click his messages to see EVERYONE tells him to go F himself on all aliases.

    Here's what I stomped in November when he #$%$ on himself on pcln, expe and hlf:
    "This is the fifth alias this twerp (he goes by various known names including idiotpumper/mytek/tahoe/blacknite/) has used on this board. You know, the moron who say he made billions short/long NFLX, TSLA/HLF and every other stock jumping around all decade. LOL I'll point out how stupid his moronic comments are just once on this heretofore unseen here alias...

    EXPE did crush earnings (and revenues) that is why the stock jumped from below $80 to above $85 last Friday -- where we blew out half and the other half yesterday on the afternoon fade ahead of PCLN's news to pare risk trade allocations on the fade into the elections and oil going nuts south.

    PCLN also beat on earnings and revs. No one need fret for little old us -- those who have been reading along as we go know we've run PCLN many times in recent yrs, and owned most of the PCLN below $1040 on the recent gift pullback (sound familiar? ring any bells?...) We blew out of half of PCLN at just below $1200 yesterday (biggest position of the 3 OTAs) and TRIP (smallest trade) yesterday. Out of PCLN just below $1200 and the other half today at $1110.

    HLF? Out of the core at $80..." [and hedged out the trade piece last yr at $80 too a year ago... then a few small trades on the bounces before the capitulation].

    Here's news for the little cork soaker -- back to very long PCLN on bs dip last week. Currency hits indicated, yes, but lots of travel to Europe this year on the currency advantage and fuel impacts putting consumer discretionary back in daylight now.

    Anyone reading here knows the mpel story-- core at $17 (excl hedge gains) - trade chunk basis $25 excl hedge gains and pair trade offsets. 100% long again.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 25, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Good to read this exec team's perspectives considering that Galaxy is "not worried" about tables, visas, diversification, employees, GGR or even VIP growing again soon, when they are in a significantly weaker position on all of those fronts than is MPEL. D'YA THINK JUST MAYBE THEY UNDERSTAND 9 OR THE 10 LARGEST JUNKET OPERATORS ARE NOT CLOSING DOWN ANYTHING, AND THAT DAVID GROUP ONLY CLOSE 3 OF THEIR 7 ROOMS ON MACAU? (caps not intended, but F retyping. LOL)

    “We were lucky to be given the opportunity to enter the Macau market in in 2002,” said the chairman, adding that the company’s aims were “aligned” with the Macau government’s goal of developing the city as a “world centre of leisure and tourism”.

    Diversification effort

    Galaxy Entertainment’s vice chairman Francis Lui said the firm’s commitment to diversifying the local economy was strong. He said that the company would also be giving more detail shortly on its plans for non-gaming facilities on neighbouring Hengqin Island – a special economic zone of mainland China, next door to Cotai.

    But he said the city “needed to address” its logistics and transportation systems before it could become competitive globally in the conferences market.

    Mr Lui added: “Because of the huge denominator in the gaming segment, it takes time to see a clear shift with more and more non-gaming.”

  • Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
    Jan 23, 2015 Newsdesk Latest news, Macau, Top of the deck

    Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
    A senior Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd executive on Friday said he believed the Macau government would think “very carefully” before deciding whether to increase Macau’s effective tax rate on gaming from its current level of 39 percent. A possible four-percentage point rise to 43 percent was mentioned recently by brokerage CLSA Ltd.

    Mr Lui stated regarding the tax issue: “We are realistic [enough] to say the government will look into all aspects before making a decision. This is a major decision to be making, and I think the government would be making such a decision very carefully.”

    Galaxy Entertainment said at Friday’s press conference it is aiming to open Galaxy Macau Phase 2 with “the majority” of its facilities on offer to the public.

    But there was no detail on how many new-to-market gaming tables the scheme would have either at its launch on May 27 or after launch.

    Galaxy Entertainment has said in previous public statements that Phase 2 has capacity for 500 tables and 1,000 slot machines.

    Government talks

    Robert Drake, chief financial officer of Galaxy Entertainment, told the media briefing in Macau: “Our intention is to open with the majority of our operations as we have done historically with Phase 1. But as far as tables are concerned… we are going through that process right now of working with the government on the submissions… and we are quite confident we will get a sufficient amount of tables to generate the returns we have been forecasting.”

    Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
    Jan 23, 2015 Newsdesk Latest news, Macau, Top of the deck

    Galaxy Ent bosses upbeat on tax, govt relations in Macau
    A senior Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd executive on Friday said he believed the Macau government would think “very carefully” before deciding whether to in

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 22, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    let's hope the rest of the "wrongway" analyst group remains negative until the reversal is well underway... they will if Maquarrie, Credit Suisse, WFC's Mcknight and Isis Wong and Karen Twang drivel along with Shuli's bent is any indication.

    and check out the press on what Li (Beijing overseer) had to say tuesday... he makes it clear that they want diversification and oversight to eliminate illegal money transfers, fraud and prostitution (MPEL has no institutionalized prostitution or "Goldfish Bowl" such as the longstanding Lisboa's "protection" organization for the working girls there LOL)... but Li's comments make it abundantly clear that Beijing wants to avoid restraining the growth of Macau (i.e. tax receipts) in the process.

  • Good to see them pump some liquidity into the small and medium sized banks in china today... good to see them use some of their treasure chest to patch some leaks in the hull.

    Separately, unreal to see Shuli at it again in Barron;s today.

    MPEL is not exiting HK exchange for any unsettling reason as discussed here when they did it and by Lawrence ho last week. What Lawrence did not discuss was that NASDAQ rules do not require 25% ownership apart from designated insiders as does the HK listing agreement.

    The second "scary" thing she ridiculously repeats from the clowns at McQuarrie Research (who must have clients remaining unhedged short down here at these washout levels just ahead of major upside ebitda catalysts coming for MPEL in particular) is that a "major VIP operator" is pulling out of Macau. She first regurgitated that incorrect comment last week when mcwquarrie or another cheeseball analyst (I'll pass on looking for the stupidity) first reported that "news" and while Shuli corrects herself in the next paragraph to say only 3 of 7 cage rooms are being vacated ("temporarily" they said -- until things settle down as the David Group clarified for the asking the next day), she also includes the reference to her errant earlier piece on that bs. Too stupid to laugh.

    The third item involving Sands exec retiring, as if under a cloud, is a ridiculous attempt by rto spew uncertainty in my view... a professional publication really ought to talk to the company before writing such spew and doubly so for Shuli to repeat since Shel Adelsen has already made it clear (again, for the asking) that the guy is retiring for personal health reasons. That guy has been a great player for LVS over time, and his latest hat trick was to get the new regime to immediately remove the permit/approval hurdles put in front of LVS by Francis Tam re completing the Parisian on schedule.

    p.s. for the peck worried about us, back to 100% net long on the gift this morning

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 21, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    Jim,

    Good comments. let's review... especially given darnite's joke that "VIP is gone" (sounds just like dthe98s "never coming back huh .. diversionary nonsense repeated dozens of times on his many aliases no matter refuted with facts. Although "adj" VIP doesn't really matter to MPEL (95% of ebitda is mass and will be even better once SC is opened on macau) , VIP play is continuing along quite well all considered at the largest VIP tours... onlyone has had its license suspended (over a year ago for fraud) and now David Group has scaled back to just 4 from 7 rooms

    If you have not, see Morgan Stanley's recent first call pieces on why that group (that was pretty good until they lost their minds on the noise last summer until the real news of Xi Jinping's "crackdown" on political foes and gov't officials on the "shady deals" all came to bright lights with former China Security Minster Zhou's arrest in late July) is now bullish on Macau.

    As noted then and subsequently here, that MS turn to brightly negative last summer was timed directly with Jinping reemphasizing that they were now going into "Fox Hunt" mode, seeking to recover funds illegally taken from govt interests and "illicitly transferred" out of China. Some of that money and those "tigers and flies" found their way to Vegas for May and June and up through July... but that all ended the 21 analysts freshly touting the "Vegas resurgence" -- precisely at the end of July. Fun to point out again that Ho's reset was also at this time... when he told the world mass was going to run at more like half the 35% or so seen 1H14 (largely on conversion to direct credit play away from small to large VIP tours).

    Now MS has come in out of the woods to say the stocks will soon begin to discount coming 2H catalysts -- as soon as during THIS MONTH.

    Looking forward to the update from the exec teams on the U.S. listed companies over the next couple of weeks..

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 21, 2015 8:24 AM Flag

    I thought I already had you on ignore putz breath, but you calling me clueless is probably the most ironic thing ever posted here.

    The point of the analyst's report (and the article if you can read at the 4th grade level) is that she and others have blown UnionPay WAY out of proportion and that is not just with respect to last month's "new measures" but going back to last summer. As she writes in her update, the "new review measures" are really nothing new at all; instead they merely restate the reality that ALL ILLICIT MONEY TRANSFERS are going to be found out as they are carefully scrutinizing all large transactions. And "large" here is in the context of debit/credit card cash withdrawals -- here's some more "homework" for you -- VIP cage room players are not going out to pawn shops for cash.

    Since you are the new moron here, you really ought to do some remedial "homework" reading on these terms "unauthorized swipe machines" -- it is all old news and fun to see an analyst who has written negatively on it 5-6 times suggest that VIP play is reliant on swipes for 15% of volume. Too funny.

  • Reply to

    Mid term review comments

    by squeezetracker Jan 20, 2015 11:43 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 20, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    Reviewing the math seriously, the 8 properties currently under development will essentially build out the remaining entitled Cotai land bank (except for follow on phases of Studio City and ???), so using the current table count, that would mean an average of about 240 tables per property would be available. From there, they could "extend" the 3% ave increase in table count for years... Since there will be no land left to develop on Macau that would mean a couple hundred tables per year could be split up amongst the existing properties.

    I wonder how much of what Leong Tac said was lost in translation to English in the Macau press this morning. One can take away that the table limits are not really a problem for the developers, more of a tool to ensure they know macau officials really do want some quality tourism attractions beyond fabulous casino facilities.

    On the gaming tax topic, beyond the Laffer curve perspective, and quite apart from the draconian gloom one can hope is there if one is short these Macau names, it may be that in his native tongue the new Finance Secretary merely commented that they will review taxes in a couple of years to see where things stand. That is entirely reasonable perspective... and not saying they plan to ruin GGR permanently and then make up for taxes on the lost revenue by raising the rate on a smaller revenue base.

  • Goog that title to see the Credit Suisse analyst making fun of herself... incredible to think people that incompetent can retain their jobs, even if they work 90 hrs a week in grimy little cubicles.

    And check out those dazzling stats she spews forth on how much UnionPay cards fund for mass and also VIP -- 10-15% on the latter she says. Talk about clueless.

    That said, she does say the "concerns may be overblown" that this meeting to review existing information sharing between originating and settling banks somehow means anything to Macau, and there she goes again, saying the "corruption crackdown on Macau" is what this is all about.

    Unless one is a political enemy of current leadership in Beijing or a known "shady deal"/private club #$%$ being hunted down by the new security minister, there is no "corruption crackdown on macau" unless one is talking about executives organizing "protection" in the form of skimming from the working girls at Lisboa's now vacant "goldfish bowl" where #$%$ parade around the loop, or those involved in illicit (i.e., illegal/non-compliant with established rules) transfers of money away from china. Again, gaming on a VIP junket is perfectly legal -- just ask the big tours, including David Group, that continue to take clients to play in luxury facilities there daily.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 20, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Jim,

    On the David Group note, they are shutting down only 4 of their 7 rooms -- likely some of that VIP play is being redirected to Manila. :) That leaves 9 of the top 10 junkets still running the same number of rooms, David Group with 4 of 7 still running, and only one former big junket in Macau under investigation for criminal fraud (compare with less severe compliance mistakes) against the party.

    In total then, the politicians have a long way to go to "kill" the golden goose, but they do continue to throw rocks at it of late (makes you wonder if "they" have hedge fund pals short for a day or two more? LOL)... and should have given a bit more thought and care to the new "politically sensitive" comments on ~"gee, in a couple of years we will review how the concessionaires have done with diversifying away from just gaming, and, depending on how things are going up through our 'mid term review', maybe we will review our tax policy then too."

    Based on Leong's Tac's previous public relations efforts and visible policy leanings, it has been easy to say he "gets" what Macau needs to continue developing the economy, tax revenues and employment... He was a math major in college but the news from the press conference yesterday reflects a basic lack of understanding of economics. Someone ought to send him some of Art Laffer's baseline curve charts/thesis on what happens to collected revenue (and derivatively, capital investment and employment) when taxes are increased...

    Then maybe someone can sit down with Tac and show him a comparison of what Macau has now (taxes and revenues) and to reduced taxes happening in Manila and elsewhere in the AP and what Abe is likely to do in Japan. Butching policy in Macau would be shortsighted.

    That said, a few percentage points on gaming revs doesn't materially change the picture in Macau -- at least not for model citizen MPEL as Studio city comes into focus.

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