50 or so posts from Shirley's cabal since this yesterday? and not one of Shirley's or dougies little girlfriends worth reading. LOL
No one gives a rat's @## what these putz shorts -- several of whom known to use multiple aliases on this board alone -- are writing as they parrot what worthless/wrongway analysts have to say about weekly GGR guesses they use to project forward 18 months (LOL) and, it seems, think they can influence this tape of some 3-4m shares a day. There are about as important as the dip #$%$ girl who jumped Draghi this morning trying to
You must be paid to post as you do... clearly Shirley (janetate, toast, drjackoff, blaqnite, tahoejack and the fkuimbecile series) is not... and matrixputz and his girlfriend dthedufus98 are too stupid to be getting paid for their drivel. They repeat the same dog #$%$ over and over, but none of those clowns matter to the sector stocks.
So IVS limits might be held constant at 983 zillion mainlanders until the infrastructure projects are done, whereupon more mainlander daytrippers would be allowed? BFD... same on UnionPay ATM withdrawals... same on pay raises, same on mid-term review process.
On table allotments I've suggested since last Spring that the 3% limit cannot possibly be adhered to unless they want to discourage economic development, shooting themselves and the Golden Goose (Macau GGR) in the head. Capital will go elsewhere, and so will VIP play. If that happens MPEL and LVS are best positioned in Macau... but Manlia becomes even more valuable.
What macau wants and needs is visitors who come with financial wherewithal and stay overnight, game, dine in restaurants, go to HOD and drink/party in the clubs, etc, not group bu riders on organized "ultra cheap shopping tour daytrippers." The latter pack out Macau crevices on GWs, but they add little to the local economy, don't stay overnight, or eat or game in the establishments employing call it 98% of Macaunese people.
At $122, we'll play it again... round trip 10 or so since early 2009.
MPEL still by far the cheapest of the group given the Manila and Studio City contributions will offset the revenue crimp going on in Macau... COD manila will soon be a $1B+/yr revenue contributor -- no such offset for the others.
At present levels even MGM is too cheap now. Still, those harping that MGM is better off than the other 3 US listed Macau-centric companies apparently don't understand the difference between mass and vip, or that once WYNN and MGM have their new properties opened up next year, call it 80% of both companies' ebitda will be from Macau -- or their new properties will be a big bust.
COD manila will soon be a $1B+/yr revenue contributor...
Zhou’s trial is expected to be similar to the one conducted in August 2013 involving former Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai.
“I have a feeling the trial will be a bit like Bo Xilai’s, though I have a feeling Zhou will be much more stony-faced during it,” China analyst Raffaelo Pantucci told VOA via e-mail “I think the eagerness will be to get it done and out of the way, though with great public spectacle as the pinnacle of Xi’s new power,” he added.
Or is it more toward winding down now as Zhou and his cronies face sentencing?
"April 13, 2015
With China’s former domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang facing corruption charges after months of investigation, analysts say China is sending a stern message by making him the highest ranking Chinese official to face trial in the past three decades.
The 72-year-old former Minister of Public Security, Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission and member of the Politburo Standing Committee stands accused of bribery, abuse of power, and what is termed “the intentional disclosure of state secrets.” He was expelled from the Communist Party in December.
Zhou’s charges, according to an official statement, are “especially severe.” The statement says he “took advantage of his posts to seek gains for others, and illegally took huge property and assets from others.” Zhou “abused his power, causing huge losses to public property and the interests of the state and the people,” the statement continued.
The formal charging of Zhou came shortly after the National People’s Congress took place in March and his impending trail was announced earlier this month. Premier LI Keqiang told Congress delegates that President Xi Jinping’s fight against corruption will expand and spare no one.
Some analysts see Xi’s purge as directed as much toward neutralizing political rivals and opponents as it is toward punishing those engaging in malfeasance.
“We’ve seen at the top levels, Xi Jinping going after both of the two predecessor governments to try to keep them in check,” RAND analyst Scott Harold told VOA. “These [actions] constantly keep the pressure on those political groupings that are not already loyal to Xi Jinping and post a challenge for the Chinese government.”
Harold said the charges “suggest that what they are looking at is not simply moral failings, or engaging in corrupt activities with financial remuneration
LOL at shirley Mason ( drjackoff, toast,drjackoff, janetate,blaqnite and all the rest) full tilt below... poor little doug has been wrong on every blown "trade" until yesterday's... and now the little fella dougie tells us he "covered and then got short again today." Awesome trading, huh? 200 shares at a time per your last blaqnite slip here. LOL
But that stone throwing, adhominem glass house is still in evidence LMAO at his ridiculous commentary always and again below..
When spews about "another side to the story," doogie must mean like last january and again March 2014 when i suggested these little #$%$ trading club tarts that were hyping this would go to $75 in january 2014 -- right when I said it was overhyped and ahead of itself, explaining why we were hedging the core and twice blew out trading sleeves at just over $43... or maybe he meant the couple of dozen times I explained here why we were hedging the core with box shorts, paired shorts (and at times longs) on MGM LVS and WYNN, premium writes, etc. LOL
dicsl. We are unhedged long MPEL core at $17 (excluding the numerous hedging gains/offsets and trading gains since the big roll on in late 2012 which would drive adj basis below zero on the core) and the trade allocation just below $23), and close to putting back on an unhedged WYNN trade (long) after last week's flip out. OT Wading back onto the two fav airlines too -- trading at ~1/3 the market multiple.
One more point -- read these idiots making emphatic "sell" recommendations and note that nothing I have said is anything other than heads up points to think about -- long/short and neutral the sector names over time.... but do study the 13F players for where real capital is being committed as contrasted with these dippy daytraders using their mother's margin accounts and 200 share trades. LOL
These multialias clowns have posted at least 6-7 times herethis week that Shanghai trading has pushed the MPEL stock. LMAO.... Chinese nationals can't own U.S. listed stocks, and MPEL's shares are being delisted in HK and there is essentially no trading of the HK shares in HK, Shanghai or anywhere else.
Another example? This morning dthemoron98 changes the title of the GGR asia article to spin as if SunCity is going to focus on the arts in Macau. The real story? About two years ago SunCity's colorful CEO decided he was going to try his hand (and capital) at developing "Westernized" movies and tv through a tiny subsidiary of his well-capitalized junket (largest in the business and owning rooms in Altira, Wynn, Galaxy and others on Macau and now adding a salon in MPEL's COD Manila and Solaire). Apparently he has decided that the new focus (not of sunCity's junket operations, of that tiny media subsidiary that hasn't done anything notable since inception) is going to take up[ the banner of arts promoter in macau as part of their PR effort to remian in good stead with macau and Beijing officials.
This is not news for any of the Macau gaming companies -- more like a yawn for all of the operators.
What will be news is if the operators start scaling back capital commitment to new IR development on Macau... curtailing/mothballing further development plans will have long term impact of hengqin and surrounds, as well as Macau's little old self. Crimp hard enough on freedom to let high rollers game, party and play like high rollers (rules compliant to be sure) and the tours and operators and players will all go to places where they are welcome and where they need not avoid spotlight scrutiny.
And gee Wally, if overall Macau GGR is "flattish" as per Shirley Mason (toast/janetate/drjackoff Bain LOL), MPEL's GGR and adj ebitda will make big strides 2H15 as they will have the revenue streams not present 2H14 in Manila and from Studio City coming on 3Q.
How will the accelerating expansion of gaming in the region—in Macau, in Vietnam, in Cambodia and in South Korea— impact the Philippines?
Macau will always be number one. That’s a given. Vietnam is too far to matter in this market. Korea is foreign players only. For visitors, we have so much to offer in the Philippines. We have historical sights in the Philippines, we have beautiful beaches. As the advertisement says, “It’s more fun in the Philippines.” Tourism is showing double digit growth, but from a low base. There haven’t been official figures yet, but the total was about 5 million last year. We’re forecasting 6 million this year.
What changes has Pagcor made as a regulator that have helped create confidence in the Philippines as a gaming jurisdiction?
The first thing is transparency. Everything we do is out in the open. Second, there’s a level playing field for everyone. We have to respect what has been agreed to under the previous regime even though that was done before our team came in.
Between Pagcor and licensees, everything should be win-win. The higher the share for them, the higher the share for us: win-win. There will always be some conflicts. When this happens, it has to be discussed, and we have to look for solutions that are beneficial to all...
Was the decision regarding income-tax an example of that?
We respected the contract. We are responsible for fulfilling the contract. The matter of the tax is still being adjudicated by our Supreme Court. [After this interview, the court ruled in favor of Pagcor’s exemption, but was silent on the licensees’ obligations.] Our decision made us a whipping boy for the media. But it was in the best interests of all involved."
Clearly Manila is a great place for MPEL to be partnered up with the richest family in the Philippines, one focused on commercial real estate and business interests, and subject to friendly, "all parties should benefit" type of thinking Pagcor is running on in Manila.
"Do you like one of these two resorts better than the other?
They’ll be catering to two different markets. City of Dreams has its own markets. Your guess is as good as mine if you try to answer which one is better. I think they’ve both exceeded our expectations. First we had Resorts World Manila introducing the concept of integrated resorts as they did in Singapore. Solaire raised the bar. City of Dreams has tried to go a step further. They’re spending a lot of money promoting City of Dreams. They’ve got lots of advertisements on television. Of course, whatever City of Dreams does will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the market. It’s not a standalone property. It has the Crown Towers, it has the Nobu Hotel, it has the Hyatt. It has DreamPlay...
What’s the impact of having Melco Crown as an operator in this market?
It’s a big plus factor for Entertainment City. Melco Crown brings its networking from Macau, its connections with junkets in Macau. We have Solaire, which is a local company, and we have City of Dreams from Macau. There’s efficiency in its preparations to tap into that market. City of Dreams gives us a direct line into Macau.
...the proposition of a $10 billion [gaming] market is unlikely to be hit by 2018. Every year, we still project double digit growth. Off a low base, VIP is up 50% [for 2014], and with City of Dreams that’s a no brainer again this year.
Where will the growth come from?
Everybody is saying their focus is on the Chinese market. We have a very small attendance from the Chinese market. We’re starting here from a low base. It’s a no brainer that it will double this year. Our foreign tourism overall is growing. We get a lot of visitors from Korea, from Indonesia, from Japan and ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations], also from China. We’re not competing against Macau. We just want to be in the loop.
How will the accelerating expansion of gaming in the region—in Macau, in Vietnam, in Cambodia and in South Kore
Goog title for quality article illustrating PAGCOR's open arms vs Macau/Beijing's desire to shoot themselves in the foot for the time being as they cede VIP and premium players to alternate AP venues. MPEL in the A1 slot...
"As Manila’s Entertainment City spurs growth and regulatory challenges, Pagcor chairman Cristino Naguiat wants all sides to profit
Friday, 10 April 2015
Pagcor Chairman and CEO Cristino Naguiat isn’t a man of many words. But he doesn’t need to be. The progress of Pagcor speaks for itself since President Benigno Aquino handpicked Mr Naguiat for the top job in July 2010 [where he] has to balance Pagcor’s diverse roles as gaming regulator, casino operator, government revenue generator and driving force behind Entertainment City, a master-planned district in Manila Bay that’s developing into the largest cluster of integrated resorts between Macau and Las Vegas...
In February, City of Dreams Manila held its grand opening as the second resort in Entertainment City. The first was Solaire Resort and Casino, a US$1.2 billion project spearheaded by Philippine ports billionaire Enrique Razon Jr, which opened in March 2013 at the 120 hectare (300 acre) district that will also include commercial and residential developments...
COD Manila brings Macau casino operator Melco Crown Entertainment to the Philippines. Working in partnership with SM Group, controlled by Henry Sy, the Philippines’ richest man, Melco Crown increased its investment in the $1.3 billion project and took over operations after Pagcor reinterpreted its terms of reference for licensees’ projects, basing its allocation of gaming tables and machines on total size of lodging areas as well as number of rooms. That revision increased the resort’s permitted number of tables by 50% to 384 and more than doubled the number of electronic gaming positions...
Pagcor fought the BIR decision in the courts and pledged to negate the impact on licensees. Last year, it agreed to cut license fees...
By Zinnia B. dela Peña (The Philippine Star) | April 13, 2015 - 12:00am
MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines is on the cusp of a casino boom with more foreign firms placing their bets on the Southeast Asian nation that has attracted increasing numbers of the wealthy overseas high rollers and big spenders amid China’s crackdown on corruption and slowing economy..."
Soon it will be clear that there is a $1B+ pot inuring to COD Manila annually in Manila... they have more than 4000 Philippinos on the payroll at COD Manila already, are currently adding another 430 or so based on Phistar reports (and see COD website for large listings still open) and that is before getting VIP operations fully up and racing -- and well before they build out the recently disclosed "expansion phase" there with the Sy family pals going 100mph on commercial development surrounding the property, all as the new "permanent" US Navy base is built out in Manila Bay.
How much longer will Macau/Beijing cede half of last year's VIP revenues to other venues in the AP, especially as the Foxhunt/Skynet thrashing about winds its way down as the corrupt politicians and political foes of the current regime are dealt away. otp, MPEL generates less than 15% of COD Cotai revs from VIP, and, despite all the bs media coverage, actually joined Galaxy last Q in reporting a serial increase in VIP RCT and win 4Q vs 3rd.
Meanwhile, LVS is now telling the street thay are actively promoting VIP play in both Macau and Singapore... seems they are tired of ceding away that business, even with its appurtenant low margins and scrutiny. Certainly the crooks and political foes of Xi Jinping are not coming back to Macau, but the worst month since last June still reflects 50% of all time peak RCT... and the new salons at Galaxy, WYNN, LVS and MPEL are just now getting going there, right ahead of the new product coming on stream with Galaxy 2 and MPEL's Studio City.
LVS has a different ownerships structure than does MPEL as some here understand, but see their press release from a few minutes ago.
Despite the difficulties Macau properties present as discussed prior, LVS has also consistently suggested they believe a structured REIT program will one day pencil for their resort properties and malls. Are they telegraphing they are coming now with a novel structure for Macau? Clearly that is where the majority of their commercial ebitda emanates from, and perhaps they are thinking through MBS as well.
So maybe they and their lenders do not think the sky has or is falling on Macau? LOL The press release from a few minutes ago discusses how pleased the company is with the vote of confidence their lenders just joined them with on the $1B expansion of their credit arrangements adding "balance sheet strength and flexibility" (to do more capital distributions they write), but they have something more to say beyond noting they will pursue more integrated resort development: "We will continue to execute our plans to [further] enhance our balance sheet strength and financial flexibility.
Oakmark's David Herro commented extensively on China's ongoing political winds, corruption crackdown (including reference to former security minister Zhou who is now convicted of fraud and awaiting sentencing -- reportedly he stole some $15B+ in his capacity as a key member of the former regime) in his March 2014 quarter letters to fund investors. Herro and everyone else except for the forbes guy and a couple of hedge funds guys sharing site visit recaps, continues to say nada about COD Manila, however, those actually studying know they had $9m of revenues from Manila during the December Q (when they were only partially soft opened for only the last couple of weeks and they will obviously have more to show and say as they were soft opened through Feb 1 when they did the "grand opening" -- the latter of which still not including the 300 VIP suites in the Crown Hotel property and several of the other attractions there. The entire resort should be up and running within days now...
As for Herro's outlook for China and MPEL? Steady he goes with his other China investments and wrt his allocation to MPEL, as of 12/31/14, Herro's international fund is the largest holder of MPEL (other than Ho and Packer's beneficial ownership that together comprise over 68% ownership of the shares) as noted prior. He was down some 20% on the position during the March Q... but the recent runup has cut that by a bunch...
Here's his comment on MPEL:
"...Casino revenues in Macau were weak due (January thru march 2015) to China's anti-corruption campaign, difficult year-over-year comparisons and a weaker macro environment... we remain optimistic about Macau's long-term prospects, given low penetration of Chinese visitors, continued wealth creation of Chinese citizens and large infrastructure projects, which should help facilitate the growth of Macau."
They are focused on Asia and not going to Spain or anywhere else in europe or the overdeveloped US market Jim...
See the preliminary annual report for some fun reading though. They have morphed from calling macau the world's gaming mecca and primary focus for the company as late as February, to now articulating that developing the Integrated resort franchise throughout Asia as the world's fastest developing market is the objective. As you know, a few of us thought Shelly was nuts for even considering it with LVS (we sold out the shares becauses of it before the big drop, and then piled back in to that name for the run back to $72 (out early) when they called off the gaff of going to Spain. Fully 56% of Spain's citizens under age 25 are unemployed... and they can't all work in casinos like is the case on Macau.
This afternoon BAC issued a dazzlingly insightful (not) ratings update suggesting the stock will likely trade in a range of between $21 (low) and $31 (high) over the near term. That is some insight... LOL and now there are almost as many sells as buy ratings.
So his impact took out yesterday's gain over the last two hours of tape painting...wonder how long his "15 minutes of impact" will last tomorrow...
On another note, obviously the company has decided to do other things with their capital besides buying shares in down here this Q... maybe they have news coming on where they will redirect their development efforts first (e.g., accelerating the expansion phase of COD Manila or perhaps building an art museum for now on the Studio City site)? LOL
There are precious few analysts and even less pseudo journalists who understand anything about this business, especially the fragmented Asian market. So if you are asking why are the dopes at Zacks, Shuli Renn and james Detar so weak covering the sector, it is simple... Shuli is just regurgitating what analysts have to say. She herself wrote she was far too bullish on the group through June 2014, and it wasn't until then that Grant Govertson (Union Gaming) was early to pull his buy rating on the group,followed by EVERYONE freaking out when former security minister and noted "political foe" of Xi Jinping as part of exiting regime, that Lawrence Ho said -- in the first week of August last year -- that mass growth was going to be more like half the 30%+ seen ytd through July, and VIP would likely remain pressured until after year end. The coverage cut estimates, but still around 14 of the 18 publishing analysts retained their BUY ratings on the sector. Now, only about 1/3 still have buys -- the biggest sentiment washout seen since 2008, and the quality value guys have been buying stock as the group has rolled over and down hard.
In sum, this journalist group adds little except to learn what hedge fund short the stock are pressing into them as parrots.
Manila is a special case though. They really did not open until Feb 2 -- not the whole Q... and even at that they did not have the VIP suites open until about now. The forbes writer (cohen) and calvin ayre get it -- good those names and COD manila to read knowledgeable input.
The analyst have discounted Manila's propects from the start and continue to have low expectations. Good for the story when they begin hitting it out of the park -- but that may take several Qs to accomplish. Again, they have yet to even step up to the plate with VIP efforts at COD, but that is underway right about this Q.
meant to add that when you wrote "VIP went away," those who know the data understand you mean the corrupt pols playing with PRC money illicitly garnered, and the political enemies of Xi Jinping's regime and those concerned with being caught up in the former Zhou's (China's former National security minister now being prosecuted for massive fraud) sphere of influence, along with anyone else who is concerned with being seen playing high stakes table games while having careers inconsistent with the resources needed to play like that. As for the legitimate elite wealthy that never left -- you know, the other 60% or so still playing on macau in the big, legit and open to scrutiny VIP junkets? Those guys never left as you know... still they control about 80% of play and what is "gone" is all the little VIP junkets and the buckets outlined above.
Revisiting the critical part for MPEL, VIP matters less to them and LVS than any of the other operators on Macau, and they are not actively pursuing it on Macau... yet the efforts to redo salons for three large tours (e.g., the three new salons incl one for SunCity at Altira) are yielding results as seen in Altira's VIP actually up serially last Q. obviously Galaxy is doing just fine catering to VIP as they are showing YOY increased VIP as LVS and others try to redirect efforts to mass as LVS and MPEL have done more successfully than others than others.
You know better than most that MPEL's VIP program is now going to big serious at COD Manila in the Crown Suites -- some 300 of them in that premier hotel. All of Sy's family's pals and the connectivity that Ho and Packer can bring to bear, showcasing what they can do in Japan for example -- are going to be on display over the next year or so as they ramp up Manila with VIP and quality mass.
Good comments Dave... precious few posts with any value here of late.
Galaxy will be an interesting case, to be sure. They continue to emphasize VIP and have actually ramped share on that premise as I am sure you know Dave, but that focus along with the theater in G1/redone "broadway" and "shopping/dining" don't really ring the bell on "diversification". Just the opposite really -- G2 positioning in the market is entirely consistent with the buzz in early November that they will get only 100 tables with Galaxy 2.
As you know well, Studio City is a different story on "diversification." LVS desrves some big green checks on diversification for all of the big convention spaces, but GFL getting them to be cost effective anytime soon pending the infrastructure projects and all the bs noise on group visas and grind mass spending per visit. Re Studio City and MPEL's focus on entertainment at COD and SC, though, if any company is going to be rewarded and held up as the "poster boy" player for responding to what Beijing and Macau govt has asked for in terms of building entertainment and tourism attractions, MPEL is in the pole position... Additionally, the recent Li Gang and session notes on "not sacrificing" MacauGGR (the Golden Goose) really need to be followed up with good policy actions by the SAR and Beijing... lots of investment capital will rapidly be diverted to other venues if Macau and central planners are not supportive of Macau's "special purpose" and distinction of being and remaining the biggest gaming and entertainment resort in Asia and the world.
see my email Dave...
Fidelity has not filed a 13g and the only place I see your number is in a recap on yhoo as of January 31 AND THAT FIGURE IS "SHARES HELD" -- NOT A "BUY" in their international diversified fund. I would not rely on any such disclosures on yhoo for anything important. Pending a 13d or 13g update, the year end 13F is an objective source to reference.
Past that, unless Fidelity holds ADS shares in another fund, it seems close to certain they were one of the big sellers between year end (stock was at $25.40) and now, having reduced holdings from 5,926,000 shares to 3,429,500 shares, roughly 2,499,000 shares sold chasing the price down. It is highly likely that as soon as a sloppy seller like that stops buzzing on the trading desks, other quant algo players see it and turn on the buy programs again...perhaps about the same moment that Morgan Stanley put out their screaming buy note which they then yanked the rug on some 30 days later on Feb 20 or so. In fact, a reasonable and repeat scenario could have been that the MS desk decided to play a big reversal prompting Fidelity to then resume sloppy selling. Fido may well be out by now, with the MS quant guys using Fido's shares to cover. This is how the hft world plays...
We'll see where Fido is if they file a 13G or D (over 5% holdings first) or the next 13F in mid May, but I suspect they are down to no more than the 3,429,500 and would be unsurprising to see them out altogether. It would not be novel either to see that they are back to buying again now, sensing that the worst of the selling is over, even though it may well have been their own liquidation that led to all the quants front running fido down into March 31,2014. It would not be the first time a big mutual fund kicked itself in the head down and then up over and over again.
If you want to see some impressive conviction, see harris and Oppenheimer adds last Q. Both added more than 10m shares between $36 chasing down to low $20s now retested again.