See my other post on this topic a few days ago for more discussion, what Macau wants to change around is the group visa issuance in favor of more individual visas. That will have the smae effect that shutting down the "ultra cheap shopping tours" did two years ago, i.e., then making it difficult for shopping tour promotors to bring in shoppers on cheap tours when those shoppers don't add much to the revenue base and "cost" the destinations mashing crowds and diaper changes in the streets and frustrating crowding everywhere.
Macaunese (and HK officials and residents too) are not saying it directly, but what they want is to curtail what they view as "locusts" (i.e., riff raff from the mainland) coming to these two "independent" territories because such visitors don't really have any money of substance and do not spend any money on dining, shopping or hotels or anything else... they merely clog the streets and make Golden Weeks miserable for everyone, even causing the would be spenders to shy away from coming during these important weeks.
The pickup in Macau gaming revenue during the last few days of February to well beyond the gloom of the "analyst consensus" makes the point.
See the Bloomberg piece for quality discussion and comments from several analysts, but it is obvious that some real players returned for the last few days of February and that the management teams of the Macau operators think the new resorts this year and reduced glare from Beijing may manifest in the form of improving business now, especially 2H14. Fun to see the reference to better than 20% ROIC again... Ho's comments from last month imply MPEL's sees them not only getting to profitability in Manila this year, but also attaining better than the 20% ROIC hurdle at COD Manila next year.
Wait, maybe there is something to the calendar last month and the worst of the glare in macau will continue to ease now??
The useless blitherings of Shuli Renn and james detar and other pseudo-journalists knowing nothing about the markets, these stocks or the industry but foaming the stories as told by short hedge fund interns (LOL), or our own Shirley Mason, desperately it seems attempting to dis people posting anything worth reading here and distort facts and conflate issues on all of her aliases (drjackoff, toast, idiotpumper, matrixtrade, janetate, blaqnite, fcaholley, fcanyc, fcaimbecile and all the rest, including now trying to use a fake "tony" alias after tony himself dissed drjackoff for months on end here), may give some casual readers here a cluttered view of every relevant issue. A really funny one recently was Shirley's dthe98 alias suggesting Philippine residents can't gamble in Manila - they are 70%of GGR there.
There is no "new" non-solicitation initiative. It has always been "illegal" for foreigners to solicit Chinese Nationals for the purpose of encouraging mainlanders to go gambling in casinos away from China's own Macau. The recent and marked proliferation of gambling venues in Vietnam, Cambodia, Russia on top of the pre-existing venues (Australia, Singapore, Manila, Vegas, Korea,) has intensified competition for players from all categories, but the particular renewed enforcement of the standing non-solicitation issue is with regard to promotors from away actively advertising group tours of mainlanders to travel to China adjacent properties by the busload. See the dovetail to the group vs individual visa
The big, high quality, well-funded, rules compliant VIP tour promotors will continue to dominate whereever they set up, responding to clients requests to take them, esp right now while Beijing has Macau under spotlights. Even so, the big tours control ~80% of RCV there. Sun City now has at least 19 cage rooms in Macau, incl a new floor at MPEL's Altira and just opened in WYNN's refurb VIP area, but also has expanded to Manila, Korea, and other venues.
Feb GGR numbers get reported probably Tuesday and, again old news, they will be awful as everyone knows, but from a quant valuation perspective (just ask the 5 largest holders other than Packer and Ho LOL) that is more than discounted in the oversold shares already... Meanwhile, fun to document again that it is more than a few other pm see "value" here: Blackrock, Oppenheimer, Harris and another 7 or so well established value funds taking up all they can get sub $30, and all began buying/adding large last summer too.
Herro's Oakmark Intl fund is the largest holder of MPEL now. Portfolio mgr Herro bought 10m+ shares in the Sep Q (so between $27 and $37/share), and another 11.3m+ shares during the December Q (so between $21 and $27), and now owns 21m+ ADS shares.
Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change (%) Value (in 1,000s)
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P 12/31/2014 21,063,500 11,307,300 115.90 505,945
Noted a few times here since last summer -- value funds are returning/adding hard to MPEL shares as the momo guys left: "we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and Packer via the $300m of buybacks since September."
Here's what Oakmont Int'l's pm (Dave Herro) told VI journal (before the December 13F was published two weeks ago showing that Herro's fund aded 11m shares of MPEL 4q and now has 21m+ shares largest holder):
"The keys to investment success, says David Herro, are skill in valuation and having the discipline to actually buy low and sell high. He would know.
He’s seen it all from his vantage
point as one of the industry’s top
international investors – Morningstar
named him Foreign Equity Manager
of the Decade in 2010 – but even
David Herro is impressed with the level of
economic turbulence today. “There’s always
a lot going on,” he says, “but we’re
probably closer to a peak than a trough on
that front right now.”
Herro has proven more than capable
in navigating turbulence. He manages or
co-manages some $55 billion for Chicagobased
Harris Associates, and the Oakmark
International Fund he’s run since 1992."
"We recently bought shares [MPEL], one of six
license holders to own and operate casinos
in Macau. Macau-related stocks have
been hit by a variety of concerns regarding
corruption, visa restrictions, credit conditions
and regulatory changes. None of
that, however, impacts our view that the
Macau gambling market is a double-digit
grower long-term as increasing supply is
comfortably absorbed by insatiable gambling
demand from China’s rising middle
class. This is a typical type of idea for us:
there’s an industry under pressure, we find
a player in it with distinguishing features
we find appealing, and we place a bet that
short-term problems are not indicative of
structural tailwinds going forward."
goog title for article to learn that the author joins the pile of journalists noting that Feb gaming numbers will be awful... he quotes Wong as "shocked" that Feb is likely down some 50% because VIP and other high rollers did not play during Golden Week as compared with 2014? Someone ought to show him the calendar scheduling of CNY YOY. As most posters who understand the dynamics have discussed here since October, we can expect February numbers will be awful, and that will likely continue on for the quarter if not into the 2Q numbers... More towel tossing ahead, or are the bulls such as David Bain correct that the GGR bottom is in now that February is over? We know Vegas had a bump in table play from April through July last year (esp May and June), and we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and packer via the $300m of buybacks since September.
One thing is clear now, only half of the analysts following the group still have BUY ratings on the group -- that is just about the level this pack had in 2012 with LVS, MGM and WYNN stocks all down to about half their 52 week highs at the time. More recently, recalling that the 100% OF THESE ANALYSTS had BUY ratings on group until Lawrence Ho reset mass expectations in early August (while Steve Wynn, Jim Murren and Shel Adelson were still calling for a turnaround 4Q14), and then only 3 lowered their ratings to neutral/hold, deja vu contrarian nature of the "consensus" analyst ratings on the Macau names (group think) round 5 since early 2012?
goog "Melco Crown’s Ho Sees Pick Up in Manila With New Casino" for the other referenced Bloomnberg article.
Also good to see macau's new "social secretary" clarify his comments on visas -- they want less of the "ultra cheap shopping tours" ilk mainland visitors, and would like to see more visitors coming into Macau on "individual visas" -- you know, the kind that actually stay and play, and spend some money on restaurants and food while they are there... This guy also made special note of using the new 24 bridge to ease congestion during cruch periods, and told reporters they want Beijing's help spreading mainland scheduling over times other than Golden Weeks, as well as the need to accelerate infrastrucutre projects to ease friciton and getting around for tourists and Macaunese people alike.
Seems he was directed to clarify the misguided remarks Shuli Renn and many other journalists and weak analysts spewed about regarding his earlier remarks that they want to reduce mainland gaming on Macau. One day soon the bs will be over and Macau can regain a sense of normalcy...
Also good to see WYNN has apparently gained comfort that phone betting by VIP is not a problem as long as the bets are placed through representatives in the cage rooms, another sign Beijing and Macau govts are rethinking how far to press the Golden Goose that Macau represents for Macau and China, say nothing of Macau's employment and economic development there and in surrounding areas. Perhaps the success of other venues is gaining the central planners' attention now.
missed this fun note last week... goes along nicely with Ho commenting that he expects COD Manila will do better than McQuarie's published estimate of 26% of Pagcor's estimated $4.36B of GGR for 2016.
MANILA, Philippines - Leisure estate and gaming firm Belle Corp. expects revenues to grow bigger in the near to medium term especially due to the lease and operating agreements with Macau casino giant Melco Crowne Ltd.
Belle CFO Manuel Gana said in the nine months ending September last year, the company booked P1.2 billion in revenue from the lease to Melco of the 6.2 hectare property where the City of Dreams Manila stands. In 2013, Belle realized revenues of P1.3 billion from the lease.
These figures, Gana said, are seen to rise further as City of Dreams IS BEGINNING TO ATTRACT HIGH ROLLERS [emphasis added] and consumers and generate foot traffic.
For this year, lease revenues from the City of Dreams property is expected to hit P1.4 billion.
Apart from the lease revenues, Belle will also be realizing a share in earnings from City of Dreams’ gaming operations through its 78.7 percent subsidiary Premium Leisure Corp., which has an operating agreement with Melco.
City of Dreams Manila soft-opened on Dec. 14, 2014 and had a grand launch last Feb. 2. It covers about two hectares of gaming space, more than 900 hotel rooms operated under three hotel brands (namely Crown, Hyatt and Nobu), the DreamPlay indoor amusement park, and approximately two hectares of restaurant and retail space.
Belle also owns significant real estate assets in and around Tagaytay City, encompassing about 800 hectares of land available for future development.
The Sy family consolidated its gaming assets including its stake in City of Dreams Manila under PLC...
City of Dreams Manila is one of the four integrated resort and casinos licensed to operate in Entertainment City, which is expected to become a prime new leisure destination in the country.
Now Shirley (drjackoff, toast, janetate, matrixtrade blaqniteet al) is posing as Tony? What an idiot will do with his time. LOL
Legit posters/readers here will notice that Tony's posts have actually been sincere of late while Shirley's posing as Tony here includes reference to "art thou", an anachronistic and decidedly western concept. Tony is Asian and has never used such vernacular.
Looks like they may have lit up the lamp on the buyback program again today. Having done $300m since November, they have another ~$200m to go before the upcoming shareholder meeting. It would be greatto see them spend it all and reload another $500m or more and get a lot of "round two" bought in before the group valuations improve meaningfully.
Given that Packer and Ho are a couple of the richest billionaires in the world and together already have beneficial control of 68% of the stock and are both very bullish on the MPEL franchise, an aggressive repurchase program right now, just ahead of numbers ramping on COD Manila (phase 1 opened this month) and opening Studio City (phase 1 opens 3Q) would be entirely consistent with they have called their "sophisticated board," especially since Japan is seemingly on stall.
As MPEL and WYNN focus their VIP efforts down on the Penninsular and on the big, high quality junkets, they are not much concerned with the little, underfunded junkets that were once active in macau. As per the comments in the article below, it is no surprise to see some 16% of last year's registered operators pass on renewing their licensing in Macau... why bother if they don't have funding and have lost their clients to the bigger tours (top 5-6 still controlling the big majority of RCV), direct credit astanding with the houses, or they were part of the "Tigers and flies" crackdown (incl political enemies of Xi Jinping), pals of the guys executed for murder and massive fraud and other criminal activities, jumped off of building for well publicized reasons, fled China to escape Jinping's "Foxhunt," or are lying low to escape scrutiny. DICJ's Neves haa comments below that say it all... [some] "analysts" are concerned defunct tours won't play? LOL
"Macau junket market to shrink further amid closures, expansion elsewhere
Macau’s junket market is expected to shrink further in 2015 amid tight liquidity and falling VIP revenue, with some analysts warning that the system that helped create the world’s biggest gambling hub may be near broken.
The number of licensed gaming promoters in Macau – also known as junkets – shrank by 34, or almost 16 percent last year, from the previous market total of 217, according to figures updated earlier this month and obtained by public broadcaster Rádio Macau.
Manuel Joaquim das Neves, director of Macau’s gaming regulator – the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) – attributed the reduction partly to the loss of some smaller players, which were largely inactive and had not applied for their licenses to be renewed. He stressed the reduction should not be a cause for special concern.
However, analysts are less sanguine and expect more shrinkage in the system that still accounts for the majority of the VIP market in Macau."
fwiw, a few notes on adj made in the current chop. But first, a few notes on the media.
Shuli Renn writes that the 3rd and 4th days 'after" the CNY (19th) didn't go so well when at most only the 23rd was in the data set she regurgitated from the bush league analyst report on mtd February results YOY. Super lame when buysiders have expected an awful result for Feb especially but up through 1Q and maybe April vs 2014. And still no calendar comments? Almost as stupid as Shirley nonsense on 10+ aliases.
And now Cramer's 'Street" quasi journalism rag repeats Shuli's dippy regurgitation yesterday of the GGR Asia piece from two days ago? Lions and tigers and bears oh my! So a local politician makes some comments to suggest he understands that Macaunese people don;t like the golden Week crowds (and have long been frustrated by the slow to come LRT and other infrastructure developments needed to make things flow with far less friction about town) and that maybe there should be some kind of crowd volume constraints during heavy holiday periods? Ramifications are dreadful says Shuli!
huh? If mainland daytrippers, who, as buysiders know, don't play table games and maybe pull a few slots passing through the premium casinos on Macau (kinda just like Vegas these days), are subjected to visitation constraints during the super busy periods that legit VIP and mid/premium mass players are now passing on, somehow that means that macau casinos are in deep trouble and the stocks should get thrashed? precisely the kind of bs noise we love to go in heavy on... of course, we already own a bunch here... but this bs drop should npot last too long as the distortions in YOY comps/calendar effects are deciphered and things begin the claw out of the noise.
Covered the WYNN offset this AM. WYNN is likely getting hurt more the other US co's in Macau as the VIP reliance is rough for them but everyone hurling themselves overboard with the baby's bathwater have likely already jumped off.
LOL Everyone here is making there own decisions unless they are idiots like you Shirley Mason (aka toast, janetate,drjackoff,matrixtrade, blaqnite, tahoejack, fcanyc,fcaholley,fcaimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, brinerbriner and 5-6 other aliases he has mistakenly revealed carrying on deceptive conversations with himself over time here and on the IKGH board. Thanks to "puthimon" who has been making fun of drjackoff and Bain they hyped IKGH while it crumbled from $8 to $1.
THAT irony is really funny though Shirley. Hold onto your pretty little hat too.
Shirley (drjackoff -- coinage courtesy "puthimon" here and on the IKGH board -- darqnite, dthe98,janetate, fcaimbecile,fcanyc, fcaholley and all "yous" other alaises),
Why not make all of you posts on a new alias calling yourself "shirleymason"... that way guys like grftt,edjenkins, crnjms, and everyone you have intentionally misled or tried to dis like a little girl on AOL would know to say FY and put you on ignore.
Now put all of your heads back up your %&@ and continue eating everything in sight.
bellow Shirley suggests "mark my words"... he forgets we already have right here where Janetate,toast,drjackoff, idiotpumper,tahoejack,mytek, matrixtrade and all the rest of his coy cork soaking on his other bs aliases' posts.
I already did "mark your words"
From january 7th:
and speaking of entertainment... how about that darqnite putz...
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value", then he tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL
"blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
0users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here
He invites abuse and is some cork soaker all right. He also has and hetrouble keeping track of all of those known aliases from over there in Thailand. From his “sheethead" posts reveling in the bs of the HK Post nonsense article last month (as in here where his aliases all come toigether saying the same bs on the same threads), he reminds us that the multitude includes: blaqnite, sheetwise, fckanyc, fkuimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, tahoedipshite, and I forget the other 4 or 5... Funny and ironic as hell this putz says our allocations are phantom when, as a few here know, we actually understand money management, taking/hedging risk and all of that.
It gets funnier...On December 17th, he suggested (right at the retest of the completed head and shoulders but successful bounce at the July 2013 low for MPEL, LVS and WYNN I discussed that day) that this is almost down to where he'd buy it at $17. That’s our basis on the core alright — excluding numerous hedging gain offsets and all of the trading gains taken out since 2011 (many discussed right here as they were done) that have reduced our “economic basis" to below zero on the core... Funny as hell this moron says my trades are phantom when as a few here know, that is "not exactly” our story.
"Almost at your 17... my buy price... you can call me names when i buy...lol"
time to begin cramming out the exit you blind mice that don't have any idea what you shorted this morning... and to further mix similes, take chicken little with you, you filthy animals, before Henny Penny kicks sand in your face. LOL
Shirley was worried for us, but we had lots of company this afternoon... gobble gobble was all we could hear on this and the airlines almost from the get go this morning.
Gee, are we alone in thinking that things are going a lot better for MPEL than the VIP oriented parts of the group, even before considering the Manila benefit this quarter?
We won't be surprised to see that Lawrence's treasury unit was busy scooping up shares while the discount lasts either. Love the idea of cork soakers shorting limited public float to the two billionaires controlling 68%+ of the stock.
Shirley "Sybil" Mason,
dougie, amazing what a putz you have shown yourself to be...
Here's your update today. LOL Added large to AAL, UAL and DAL while the bs drop was in process... and have now done 5x today the add to mpel yesterday (and still tiny relative to core @$17 and trade sleeve @$25 and pennies). Stay short all of these trades now... and let's see where these close out the week and quarter.
but cmon dougie, tell us the one about IKGH again... wait... is that you David Bain? rough go coming for you if that is so... The Carlyle Group's brokerage amalgamation (Stiffel/KBW/Sandler and now dippy Sterne Agee deal for peanuts announced) likely haa a big red pencil out drawing lines through the names of analysts with no institutional following at that little third tier firm... but maybe BYD is looking for an investor relations associate, one good with presentation charts. LOL
Oh geee Shirley (drjackcar, toast, jane tate, mytek, tahoejack, blaqnite and all the rest of your underhanded, deceptive and zero integrity aliases here and elsewhere. You are one ironic little cork soaker alright calling our highly successful efforts (only two down years) "imaginary" when you are using 10+ aliases here and elsewhere carrying on conversations with yourself on yhoo and lvsforum and who cares where else. Short away here-- good having you opposite our thinking.
How is that "gonna add at $17" bs working out for you, or your IKGH hyping on at least 5-6 aliases there as it crashed from $8 to $1? Special thanks to "puthimon" on this and that board for calling you out as the moron that you are. btw, we are adding today -- 3x yesterday's level and still peanuts and below MPELs w ave buyback levels... given the dippy analysts lowering numbers to almost where the buyside has them LOL, some here may want to do some hedging for a few days while the bs plays out and then reverses. We have.
You trying to dis my career record? Really? Put you head back up your #$%$ and keep eating. We are off to another solid start. You tried to dis the pcln, expe, trip, and two year run on the airlines on the bs ebola dip right here, but no mention of our big gains (long and hedges shared) on MPEL, WYNN and LVS or the banks and round trips you studied on AAPL, TPX, AMGN, SBUX, or the big shorts on several retailers and the oil complex after playing long several trips on many names in those spaces? It really is ironic when you have zero credibility and actually try to dis me here, when my posts are never trying to f over the unsuspecting as you do daily.
speaking of paired trades... love yours: short MPEL/long ikgh since July 2013. comedy`