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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 231 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    north of the 50 dma

    by toast22342000 Dec 29, 2014 11:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 30, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    forgot to add that tax loss selling is largely over for pm in October... so perhaps you meant trivial retail ownership/volume in this name somehow matters to a 5m shares/day tape?

    As noted several times here (though matrix dolt and his pal wet themselves over vocabulary LOL) box shorting mattered this Q -- right up until Xi Jinping left without killing the Golden Goose... but I digress

  • Reply to

    north of the 50 dma

    by toast22342000 Dec 29, 2014 11:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 30, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    huh? Go back and read your "you can't fight city hall thread" top to bottom... you posted that on december 17, the same day I suggested the retest of the July 2013 low was a big event in chart terms... and after repeating many times that the "coming reversal, in a matter of days, weeks or months" had the potential to be quick and sharp. The stock is up some 24% over the last 8 trading days toast... and GGR is sukin for the month and Q and has no observable turnaround just yet (except to repeat that still some 80% of VIP play continues and the noise in the mass numbers will take a while to sift well) as has been regurgitated for months now...

    Here's one of your many comments (Dec 17 -- 12 days ago) that VIP/GGR turning up is the only way this sector/stock are going higher -- into the teeth of my suggestion the entire sector has been ridiculously oversold and is way overdue for a reversal.

    "It should be noted that while 2015 GGR growth is predicted to be negative it is also predicted to pick up in the back half and return to single digit growth in 2016.
    To me all that stuff means I have to decide if I'm willing to accept MPEL is dead money for at least another quarter unless an unexpected turn occurs in Q1. "

    On the same thread, here was my comment on analysts/reversal:

    "So now, as even the shorts posting s head commentary here all month are pointing out that most analysts are sukin, those "listening to the analysts" are likely to wind up on thew wrong end of the reversal, just like they did in late 2012 and mid 2013 and early 2014 and reloading the dip before the retest/double top in March...

    Seriously toast, the "analysts" are F worthless on this sector. On the airlines, oil& gas, banks and many sectors there are several excellent analysts, but seemingly only Bain actually talks to the exec teams even... the rest can;t even get the facts correct most of the time, let alone share worthwhile insights.

    and "So far this month" -- this is the Xi Jinping month"

  • Reply to

    ICAHN's HUGE BUYS LAST WEEK AND IMPLCATIONS

    by squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 9:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 30, 2014 7:41 AM Flag

    This stock has another $5 to go near term, and then another solid bump when they get the financials filed and the equipment company spinoff done ahead of schedule.

    Our re-entry on CAR at $48 is running well too... close to closing that one out again but riding high for now. Those shorting these names at recent lows simply do not understand the business or the markets.

    Amazing this robbbeatch putz continues to post here all day long... Who is paying these morons trying to influence small retail holders when the tape runs 10m shares a day? Tragically stupid...

  • Reply to

    north of the 50 dma

    by toast22342000 Dec 29, 2014 11:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 29, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    One more comment on japan before we go off to dinner...

    Hard to say this is more than 2 cents of discounting here since the stock dropped on all the bs noise before AND after Abe's snap election. Again, N.B. that the Dec month GGR will be awful and so will the Dec Q, and the Macau stocks are now rallying hard on that very visible "bad news"... the stocks will smoke higher once THAT turns around, even if it takes until visibility improves on the 8 new properties coming in Cotai... but in the meantime, it is good to see that imbecilic "basher" putzes getting socks full of horse dung stuffed down their throats as their bosses' capital get thrashed. It could not happen to more deserving idiots.

  • Reply to

    north of the 50 dma

    by toast22342000 Dec 29, 2014 11:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 29, 2014 10:21 PM Flag

    Although you and one other quality longtimer here have suggested that the Macau stocks would not recover until VIP and GGR recover, that is decidedly not happening just yet. in fact, the casinos are about to report a really bleak December month and quarter... and yet, the stocks are rallying... sharply at that.

    You ascribe that to the buyback vand then the hope that Abe gets legislation done that will enable awarding concessionaire licenses to develop IR over the next 5 or so years earliest. Clearly those are not the reasons the stocks are rallying... MPEL's buyback went on for 12 consecutive days and only on the last few did the stock stop falling. In the end analysis, buying in the first $100m last Q at $27 was a statement, but buying in another $200m+ at ~$24 blended was a louder statement that the Packer and Ho brigade is #$%$ at the stock valuation and going to do something about it as discunting will soon begin on their big victories coming with Manila (that you continue to dis) and Cotai (Studio City, Tower 5 and phase 2 of both SC and COD manila).

    Similarly, a maybe on getting a japan nod and maybe getting it built in 5 years and getting to positive ebitda in another year or two is not worth a whole lot to buysiders laying in shares today... so why did the bs stock drop stop and reverse some 24% or so at today's high? I'll suggest it is all the reasons that have been discussed here as ridiculous discounts (to MPEL's intrinsic valuation on adj ebitda) being reversed with what is now becoming the pendulum swing back away from stupid levels. I'vs suggested it can and likely will be quick, and now you can see it for the fourth time since the ipo.

    Can it retest the recent lows? Sure, said a few times here... but a break below the July 2013 low is highly unlikely barring a big collpase now, especially since the tea leaves from Xi Jinping and the new macau leadership actually understands the business and need for reasonable/visible policy.

  • Reply to

    Manila !!!!!

    by whisperingpines1962 Dec 29, 2014 10:55 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 29, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    The full opening oif COD manila is scheduled for "prior to the CNY celebrations in February, and unless COD Manila is a massive fail (we'd give that a zero likelihood), MPEL's share of GR and mgmt fees should quickly more than cover the Q operating expenses of ~$30m ($120m+ annually) for the Sep Q... MPEL and its partner will also benefit from the GR tax concession granted to the four concessionaires earlier this year... less tax obviously improves the ROIC vs original plans for the resort when MPEL's two billionaire co-chairmen decided to step in with Sy (the richest man and commercial developer in the Philippines). If not obvious, the naysayers on Manila think it will never amount to much... good challenge for Lawrence leading up to the japan concession awards coming over the next year or so if Abe has his way in the legislature. LOL

    It may take a couple of years for the other two concessionaires (total of 4) and the new infrastructure developments, including construction of the U.S. Navy's new and permanent base in Manila, to help ramp COD Manila to full potential -- just about in time to begin developing the second phase of COD Manila (and Phase 2 of MPEL's Studio City IR for that matter)...

    Yes, and all of that will also coincide with MPEL opening Tower 5 at COD Cotai in early 2017.

  • LVS obtaining the permits they need to complete the Parisian IR across the people mover walkway from MPEL's ideally situated COD on the Cotai strip is great news for all IR developers with projects underway on Cotai...

    In their first major action since Tam;s departure last month, it is now a blaring siren that the new regime understands the importance of timely, fair and reasonable process for working as partners with companies deploying significant capital resources and responsible for generating economic development, jobs and commerce/future tax revenues in support of Macau, Hengqin and surrounds... good to see the stocks begin to respond to the news that Xi Jinping is not out to ruin Macau's "special competence/edge" (gaming), and rather continues to sponsor additional entertainment, retail shopping, restaurants and other innovative resort offerings to encourage tourism and leisure on Macau.

    See Shel's quote in the release where he outlines, just beautifully actually, how LVS (and MPEL and WYNN for those who understand the development efforts there) is building out its very large Cotai footprint in support of leisure, entertainment, shopping, MCE and hotel operations.

    Next thing you know, we should begin to see progress and indications that directionally compliant developers are going to get their "fair share" of tables for the new properties coming on line over the next 15 months or so (so Galaxy, LVS, WYNN, and MPEL)... after all, it is pretty difficult to build out an integrated resort centered on gaming without building the casino operations as the trims go in...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 29, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    Here's the Cooperman aspect if you missed it amongst all the bs of the blithering shorts here as they squirm on the 20% rally over the last 7 trading days.

    Those who took out the easy gains last january and march and or hedged along the course of 2014 when we talked about it did just fine on the macau names this year, but from this big reset low of late and given all the new product coming on line in Macau and LVS press release making it obvious the new regime and Tam's replacement are out to make things cook vs the prior obtuse nature of development administration, 2015 should be a far brighter story than 2014 played out for the Macau names.

  • Reply to

    13Fs: A Tale to Tell

    by squeezetracker Nov 15, 2014 10:44 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 29, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    All the guys laying in heavy shares last Q between $37 and $27, including Lee Cooperman and a dozen or so other rock solid hands, likely added along with us over the last couple of weeks, more lately fueling the V reversal off of the July 2013 low retest at $21.

    And now one of the longtime naysayers here suggests "emotional longs" (LOL) think this has "turned the corner" so he's itching to "short again"... great, glad to have guys out there thinking like that.

    Macau has certainly NOT yet turned any corner on fundamentals, and still, it is clear, all of the tigers and foxes Xi Jinpinig's welathy friends and family do not want to participate in China's reconfiguration of their economy are not going to return to Macau. Simple reality... Although I've suggested we may yet see another retest of the July 2013 low, in recent days it looks a bunch more like the smart money is laying in additional shares in the sector, ready to go large as it were for the extremely positive catalysts coming for Macau as phase 2 of Cotai's development plays out and begins to be discounted NEXT year... not yet to be sure -- next year.

    On that score, I've noted for some time we think the entire group is ridiculously oversold, with the latest part of that assessment being that MGM is now the only one not taken to the woodshed... but now even LVS is cheap enough to buy a few slugs. Come and get us shorts... ROTFLOL

  • As noted many times here, unlike the HK shares for the other U.S. listed gaming companies, the MPEL listed shares essentially do not trade any volume there in no small part because Lawrence Ho and Packer (co-chairmen of MPEL) control 68% of the shares through their separately owned companies -- and essentially all the remaining float is institutionally owned and traded as ADS shares here. This dynamic is manifested in typical daily volume of the ADS equivalent of less than 15,000 shares...

    Still, good to see all of these companies shares rise 2-3% today on the strength of Chinese construction companies and banking names running as Beijing moves to stimulate lending, real estate and international and regional commerce. Bloomberg has several good aeticles on these topics this morning.

    MPEL shares have rallied almost 20% since the July 2013 low rejection last week as discussed on my recent thread on the topic. The stock danced around the 50d ema at $25 yesterday, and the 200d ema is down below $31 as the fog begins to show signs of lift again in China... all of that on top of no negative surprises from Xi Jinping and was obviously understood to be good news last week as hedge programs came off contemporaneously with MPEL buying back more than $200m worth of shares.

    Better days ahead for MPEL and the other Macau names as all the bad news is known and has been repeated 700 or so times... and the pendulum shift to a good news cycle is now overdue in 2015.

    Merry Christmas to all of the quality guys and your families!

  • Reply to

    Phone betting Macau

    by grftt Dec 24, 2014 8:33 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 25, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    Merry Christmas Dave!

    You flagged out phone gaming a few months back and this update from ggrasia is interesting, but the HK exchange filing (from Galaxy maybe as they are still heavily reliant on VIP -- can't find it with a quick search) suggesting 20% of aggregate VIP GR in Macau is in the form of phone bets has to be far too high.

    It may be that the two houses that formerly allowed phone gaming have recently dropped out have lost 20% or more of their business, but for them to suggest it is 20% of overall VIP and infer that others are either have or are now going to pull it under the glare of intensified scrutiny is to suggest that VIP has suffered no declines from other factors on a YOY comparison basis.

    The other factors? (1) 100 or so of Xi Jiinping's political enemies (millionaire/billionaire "tigers") have fled to U.S. seeking political asylum and wealth protection based on their versions of how they got there, (2) last year in excess of 190 junkets had rooms/tables in macau; some believe that is cut by 75%+ now and likely going to less than 15 tours on a large drop off in number of small tour operators, (3) many former VIP tour patrons are now the highly sought/valuable "premium mass" players on direct credit with the various casinos, (4) many allegedly "corrupt" officials have been identified following the 75,000 reviewed per Beijing's release of info on it two months ago -- at least 690 of those guys have either been taken out, had their careers ended and wealth taken, or fled China... but it is highly likely they won;t be coming back to Macau for any reason, (5) as a result of all the foregoing and the "chilling effect" Xi Jinping's anti-graft initiatives have had on not just "bad guys" but also legitimate business people in china, it is clear many continue to lay low -- perhaps especially during Dec leading up to Xi's visit.

    Chinese player VIP has been clipped, but 80% of peak VIP GR is still happening on legit/legal and rule compliant tours.

  • Reply to

    ICAHN's HUGE BUYS LAST WEEK AND IMPLCATIONS

    by squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 9:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 23, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    ain't today's move special? Hope all of the idiotic bashers here are enjoying themselves.

  • Reply to

    Chart and Buyback Program Update

    by squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 8:39 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 23, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    MPEL continued the string of consecutive daily buybacks yesterday (12 days in a row now), adding another 403,260 shares thus bringing total buybacks this quarter to 8,508,794 ADS equivalent shares.

    As noted above, very sector knowledgeable "smart money," including the guys running this company and owning 2/3s of it, are gobbling up all the shares people will sell down here... and still they have roughly $200m of authorization remaining on the initial $500m buyback plan.

    Good to see them make this statement about how they feel about trading at the lowest fwd ebitda multiple since they started the company, particularly given the Macau room count will almost double and between that and the COD Manila rooms opening right now, MPEL's footprint (room count) will increase a total of some 140% between now and August.

  • NYT this morning
    HONG KONG — The former second-highest ranking official in the Hong Kong government and a property tycoon were sentenced on Tuesday to seven and a half years and five years in prison after their convictions in a high-profile corruption case.

    The former official, Rafael Hui, served as chief secretary, the city’s top civil service job, from 2005 to 2007. He became involved in illicit dealings that led to a jury’s finding him guilty on Friday of five charges, including misconduct in public office. Thomas Kwok, one of two brothers who were co-chairmen of Sun Hung Kai Properties, was also found guilty in a conspiracy to commit misconduct in public office.

    “You were highly regarded, articulate, diplomatic and obviously able,” Andrew Macrae, the judge who announced the sentence, said of Mr. Hui. “You were blinded by the desire to sustain the high life to which you’ve become accustomed.”

    Raymond Kwok, who is now the sole chairman of Sun Hung Kai Properties, was found not guilty. Two additional defendants, found guilty of helping to pass on the illegal payments, were sentenced to five years and six years in prison.

    Lawrence Lok, Thomas Kwok’s lawyer, said outside the High Court on Tuesday that he would consider filing an appeal in the next few days, but he conceded that the sentence was “proper” and “quite lenient.” Edwin Choy, Mr. Hui’s lawyer, said as he left the court that he did not yet know whether his client would file an appeal...

    goog title for full article, these guys were in trouble before Xi Jinping became president, so they were not "fox hunted" as "political enemies" or "dissenters"... but if they were baccarat players, they won;t be back to macau playing tables games for a few years.

    The trial and sentencing of Mr. Hui and Mr. Kwok came at a turbulent political time for Hong Kong. Beginning in late September, tens of thousands of dem

  • Reply to

    The die is cast for Macau

    by dthe98 Dec 21, 2014 9:11 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    below is one of the dumbest posts of the week...

    Here is my "declaring victory" as the putz writes from the other thread. LOL

    "Can it retest recent lows? of course... but good to see the hard bounce off the July 2013 low at $21 and MPEL still sopping up discarded shares down here. $200m or so remains on the first leg of the Company's buyback plan..."

  • Reply to

    The die is cast for Macau

    by dthe98 Dec 21, 2014 9:11 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    fraught with misconceptions and errant thinking... or is it all just a lightweight writer repeating the bs a hedge fund is feeding him for a fee? The only thing he said that made sense is that mass is holding up, but he doesn't even have that data correct. He, and all the other media outlets that clearly have no understaning of junket operations, continue to talk about how patrons use the junkets to direct money away from the mainland on an illicit basis. LOL It is decidedly not "illicit transfer" to go to Macau to play and then settle debts with aboveboard tours when one returns to the mainland. Nor is that illegal in any way... nor does that "shift billions" inappropriately away from China. If it was so stupid it would be funny.

    Actually, perhaps simply reflecting his lack of sophistication about how VIP works and the reality that VIP is now largely limited to the big operators, he does indirectly make the point that VIP is STILL running at 80% of last year's peak/record levels... not bad considering that roughly 100 smaller operators who have no funding and or have lost clients to bigger junkets and conversion to the "direct credit" stay and play premium mass bucket.

    Same as for the seemingly endless barrage of stupidity that Unionpay cards have been used to inappropriately and illicitly divert funds away from China through the evilness of gaming in macau. Holy S stupid... The 14 idots using unregistered/unauthorized card swipers out of their trunks were arrested last summer -- along with confiscation of their $400,000 USD worth of money... that is hardly the "more than 25 Billion USD worth of gaming money Reuters reported last summer... a number repeated several times by Shuli Renn, James Detar, the dumbest of the analysts in this sector, and this Hong Kong Post paper that published the dumb #$%$ articles last week about the Fox Hunt.

    The bs noise is played out here folks -- the smart money is taking up the shares being gifted down here.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Lee's hedge fund was one of the 11 of the to[p 15 holders that either added to or began a new position during the Sep Q. As pointed out prior, these guys (and several other fundamental/quant value funds) put these shares on between $37 and $26, and notably the stock did not drop below $27 until the last day of the quarter.

    As p'ointed out a few times here, this stock won;t be a technical buy until the stock pivots back above the 200d ema in the low $30s on heavy volume, but fundmental and quant guys -- and MPEL itself -- are doing the buying on all shares the shorts and towel tossers will cough up down here, and by now the momo longs are all long gone, replaced by the "momo" short idiots who came late to the party. The quality replacement ownership is quietly taking off the hedges in recent days to maximize the upside on the reversal to higher levels.

    Can it retest recent lows? of course... but good to see the hard bounce off the July 2013 low at $21 and MPEL still sopping up discarded shares down here. $200m or so remains on the first leg of the Company's buyback plan... great to see them use it hard to wet the back of the shorts' necks.

  • Icahn now has three henchmen on the board studying the business plan, financial modeling, and monthly financials. They also have full knowledge of the realities of restating prior period financial statements -- other than settling out at D&O policu limits on bs derivative class action suits, restatement down here is a big yawn.

    Further, Icahn's personal choice of new CEO is in place now. Most significantly, Uncle Carl and his henchmen's original 13d (activist) filing revealed the day HTZ announced that they were going to further delay the equipment rental company spinoff and restatement for those financials, Icahn's crony group owned over 7% of the stock above $31 (including all of their option positions). That was followed by the other new 13D filer, Jana Partners, going from 3% at Sep 30th to over 7% in the mid $20s. Now, just last week per his filing, Icahn took his position up another 2,633,000 shares at a w ave cost of $21.36, bringing his aggregate position to 11.3% of outstanding shares (51,922,000+ shares) with a weighted average basis of $27.25 -- in line with Jana partners' basis.

    So smart guys owning some 18% of total shares put on very recently with better than public info access have put up 84m shares --some $42.3B of fresh money on a big bet here. This stock is seriously oversold and ready to move higher throughout the run up into the equipment company spinoff and HTZ progress on merger synergies and revenue/ebitda growth.

    Shorts are going to have their little padoinks slammed in the doorway from down here. Judging by the putzes posting drivel here dozens of times/day, it is about time.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    As noted a few times here, this stock won't be a "chart buy" until the stock crosses back above the 200d ema on heavy volume, but the chart is suddenly looking constructive for those who can process what I wrote last week about the successful retest (rejection) of the July 2013 low last week -- not just for MPEL but also LVS and WYNN as noted then. These shares are up some 14% since as the buysiders pull hedges on the difference between "illicit money transfers" and Chinese law compliant VIP operations/money transfers and the quality/texture of Xi Jinping's scripted remarks endorsing Macau and encouraging further diversification. Those who are dialed in to MPEL's business plan and "best in group diversification of offerings" of Macau's Integrated Resorts understand MPEL is accomplishing Beijing's objectives better than any other operator on Macau; the cinematically-themed Studio City (phase 1) will be further transformational for MPEL, almost doubling MPEL's room count on cotai (and macau for that matter) and quickly become the pedestal example of new world order diversification.

    More excellent news on was filed on the ongoing buyback program to reflect additional buyback activitiy on Friday. While Jinping was at the microphone, MPEL took in another 836,012 shares, bringing the cumulative total to 8,105,534 shares (ADS equiv) purchased over the last consecutive 11 days in a row. Great to see the two co chairmen/billionaires controlling some 68% of the outstanding shares make this statement about the future of MPEL and its stock... on top of the ~$100m repurchased last Q around $27/share, so far this Q they have invested another $200,000,000 of recent ebitda in the discounted shares....

    Lucky 8s.... LOL

  • Reply to

    Xi Slams Macau!

    by dthe98 Dec 21, 2014 9:13 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 22, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    grftt,

    This dthe98 has been a "negative commentary only" comedian all along here, starting last year when he told us how China was going to collpase on providing stimulus (right when they were reining in bank lending and real estate development and imposing realty investment restrictions). He is one of the naysayers herewho didn't get the memo that Jinping is very supportive of macau and its value to itself, surrounding commercial development and china, and that, unlike Taiwan and Hong Kong, Xi is very supportive of Macau's new leadership and program ahead.

    The only thing getting slammed in Macau during Xi Jinping's visit and commentary is those geniuses shorting the stock are getting their padoinks slammed in the door.

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