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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 294 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 10, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Crisply, well put.

  • On the other thread, apart from the strategic, ROIC and adj ebitda flexibility and simple math comprehension aspects fleshed out this compelling new capital distribution program, colgate guy had a nice recap. Several other posters made comments demonstrating they do not understand the capital markets, business, Lawrence Ho's clarifying reset (expectations and stocks) for the sector or the compelling math on this buyback authorization. Notice that no one refuted any of my comments with anything other than personal attacks? Same as it ever was here. LOL

    However, one does not need a finance background to understand the program... Below is CEO Ho's cogent commentary from the GGRAsia article:

    “We believe this capital management strategy provides us with the mechanism to return surplus capital opportunistically and efficiently, while maintaining flexibility to fund our current operations and future development pipeline,” Mr Ho said.

    The buyback allowance will expire at the company’s 2015 annual general meeting. The management said it would make use of the programme “opportunistically”.

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 9, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Most of the guys posting with learned commentary here have been around well over a year... and the stock was at $21 in July 2013... and the stock didn't get above $30 until late last year, so "most people" posting here -- including you -- who do not hedge their positions have temporarily lost some of their big unrealized gains on the run to double top at $45, but they have not "lost money" (realized losses) unless they paid more than $30 and sold out on the reset last week.

    I think most people investing in equities, especially high beta names, either have a good idea of how to manage their allocations or soon lose their investable capital... THAT is understandable.

    We know of not a single poster here or any analyst who thought this would get above $75 this year. Nor do we know any pm familiar with the sector who thought this stock would be above $60 on the Dec Q results... Assuming no global economic or broad market meltdown, and so a generally constructive market, as MPEL's puts up an ebitda run rate double the current level over the next two years, we think that $100 bogey will be in the crosshairs of many.

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 9, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    As i said, without calling you names (you didn't try to dis me with ignorance or stupidity, just made some inept comments demonstrating your lack of knowledge of the markets, the sector and this company as I wrote.

    I've never seen any of your posts before this lame view of the buyback here, but go read your aug 3 post again before telling us how you have called "everything correctly before it happened." Without calling you names (you didn't try to dis me with ignorance or stupidity, I aptly called out your lack of knowledge of the markets, the sector and this company with very specific info. Have a read back thru it.

    Also see what I said about the stock at $43 back in January when you "wish you sold." If you played as we did, you'd have sold out any trading shares and hedged any core back to the 50d then back with a good sleeve to $44 again (topped at $45.5), before tip toeing back in on the drop back to $40, adding more in the mid $30s, and getting back to large last week on the latest (very large for us) trade sleeve w/basis below $33 w ave.

    We still own the big core, and last week took off the paired hedge here -- primarily on the weak sister in the group (a day early LOL).

    You mention "smart"... As with my partner and the brightest staff we can bring along and feed lunch every day (they stay at the desk that way LOL), I am reasonably bright, very well educated (thanks dad), humbled by the market many times as is any pm who has been at this a while, exceptionally successful building wealth over time, and... absolutely not selling this stock down here.

    As for the stock will drop to the teens this year, must be fun macro market, macau, and MPEL assumptions for that, especially now that Manila is confirmed for a 4Q opening, MSC is capping off next month, and Tower 5 footings are done with construction crews going full bore on all three projects (vs idle at Parisian and obviously behind plan at MGM's Cotai site), and the buyback is in place.

    PT $40

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    This reply is OT and just for the idiot; don't want to offend anyone else.

    Look you little pos putzbreath, every dog s comment you made above has been asked and answered -- just to make fun of you, and at least 4 times. Keeping in mind the only reason I stomp you head is because you continually try to dis me, here is your daily abuse...

    So other than everyone enjoying you squirm over your moronic short today, here's the reply I'll repost every time you try to dis me as a request to be trampled.

    My stomp on what you consider specifying my "bull":

    1. Count to 2. Twice before yesterday I wrote the "bottom is in." First at 31ish when it was there; it rallied quickly back to 36 before caving to retest at $29.76, which I wrote was the likely bottom barring a left tail event to say $27 -- the full reset from Ho did that for the group; go back and read the threads you POS.

    2/3. In answer, to repeat myself, go read all of the comments i wrote on allocations (for you) over the last 24 hours. Our C2 allocation is blended to below $33.

    4. Our core at just thru $17 is the w ave of big buys below $13 in late 2012 on the way up after manila funding was done without a big secondary -- our expressed reason for bailing at $16 prior -- with the rest of the core being the addbacks (exlcuding hedge gains from 26 to 22 covered in) during early July 2013 when we said $21-22 was stupid cheap, cheaper than $13 was in late 2012 on a risk reward basis.

    5. Your every post screams you are a two bit moron... you likely don't have enough capital to buy a truckload of gardening equipment for your job, let alone any serious shares of MPEL..

    6. No, you are a putz... I'm co-pm of a very accomplishing fund.

    As for the weekend, we'll have a great one, trying not to rejoice too much that all the idiots shorting MPEL yesterday got mashed into the pavement today... But, as my partner quips, the crows need to eat too. ROFLOL

    Did I mention FY? Yeah, that and eat S you schmuck.

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    thank you Jim... one of the quality longtimers here...

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    "Guts to call my bull"? More like "Stupidity to keep saying the same numb F bs" that is entirely at odds with our running commentary and trades we share when done, not conveniently after the fact, or, as in your case, showing up to dis posters and the story when you put on stupid F short trades that tend to immediately bury you.

    You must really love having people stomp on your head... I've called you out on this buttwipe theme a few times too many already, but one more time for any newbs today.

    Just where am I "misleading" anyone and share a big laugh for all of us where you think anything I said was "bull" comments and analysis tend to be entirely objective and verifiable unless I've made it clear it is opinion. And note that ex a few pm reading here, all the retail shares period, not just the ones on the board, don;t matter to more than a few algo trade slices.

    Yet your continued dog S on our allocations here demonstrates you are more than stupid. You are incredibly pigheaded. Our core blends to less than $17. C2 now below $38. At least a dozen sleeve/hedge trades done profitably since 2011, most of which shared here as we did them. Read the posts as we put them up or summarized just for you a few times now -- the math does not require even 9th grade algebra.

    Lastly, anyone buying or selling based on anyone else's comments without doing their own work is just as imbecilic as your incessant attempts to dis me. And anyone selling out down here is doing so at the bottom, give or take peanuts.

    Did I mention FY? yeah... I did

  • Reply to

    New World Order for the Group

    by squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 4:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    That is not quite what Ho's tea leaves are about.

    MPEL began the conversion shift two years ago and now has done a lot of harvesting of the low hanging fruit (signing up direct credit for premium mass players coming in off the tours, whether they or the player initiated the set up). Aided by the "agnostic" tables games shifting now being done by all the elite companies, they further ramped COD mass tables games (the vast lion's share of mass and VIP revs as i think you know) in this latest Q -- a 38% jump! Ho is telling the world the cow's milk production is going to slow down and, to mix metaphors, going to require ladders to get the higher fruit now. He also had the ancillary input that further infrastructure and plant needed to house additional players will help those adding that capacity, and didn't articulate the real piece for MPEL, that such progress for MPEL in particular on Cotai will drive a higher capture of the existing and ramping mass base than any of their competitors relative to footprint f2y or so.

    So MPEL still has room to make progress in Macau and building COD as THE place for this stay and play part of the franchise, but Ho's encrypted discussion makes it plain that WYNN is now chasing its game ( which savvy pm knew from Steve's cagey comments on the cc last week and quant), and LVS is not really capturing the players that MPEL and WYNN are focused on. Murren's comments incl reference to how they are doing the convert better than anyone else (huh? that is the hit his head on something part I noted during their cc), and while no one pressed him on that, their 3% GGR growth said it all and so has the stock performance since despite surprisingly decent if short lived progress in Vegas. Given the VIP piece in Vegas for WYNN and MGM and MGMs weakest in group Macau numbers, pretty clearly they brought some of their Asian tours into Vegas last Q.

    Today pm are figuring out reset mass growth at 20% a good story with WYNN and MPEL winning

  • Reply to

    New World Order for the Group

    by squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 4:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Good to see some stapling this morning as pm figure out the Q and reset news, hedges come off and some intrepid (LOL) pm start adding a few shares. Looks like WYNN is going to claw back a bit today too.

    And hey matrix... We are making room to add more here (just sold out the latest sleeve of PCLN put on on the last retest to $1200 even though they should have GREAT numbers/conservative guide again this Q) to bring our trading sleeve down from ~$33, but we will NOT be selling any shares below say $40ish as this gets going again...
    We've tended to be effusive here about our thinking... fun to contrast the drivel media and "analyst" updates.

    As those reading my comments here know, we think the shares get back to $40+ (haircut from our $50+) by the time the Dec Q CC rolls around. fwiw, We also think WYNN will be pushing new highs by then (on Macau progress).

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    3. Shel was focused on smoldering Spain while MPEL locked into Manila. Shel also had the Okada conflict at odds with the Manila opportunity and is still talking about Vietnam and Korea while manila is a closed group with just the four concessionaires there. Steve (Wynn) has said he wished they had gone to Singapore when they could have (not recently as it has stumbled a bit for LVS) and likely will say the same when MPEL succeeds there. MPEL saw the chance to grab the key slot in a market with excellent potential and barred new entrants. They want to be where they can have "impact", and they will soon be showcasing what that means in Manila.

    5. His laundry list of Macau issues is all known and exaggerated stuff... yawn. As for corruption, lots of real cases (pharma, food, cement etc... but only illegal card swipes on unauthorized machines and two bit players arrested on all that UnionPay bs. Notice it is out of the headlines now? And media warning investors? On what, Visa, UnionPay, down VIP, and the rest of his list? All of that is noise and fading now...

    The secular growth rate coming in as explained by Ho yesterday resolves the "soft" numbers a drill down analysis yields on the Q reports as we've been discussing here since LVS and the others reported over the last two weeks. The "reset" aired at length here yesterday is the result.

    and jim, as for Ho's credibility, see my note back to matrix last night.

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Not to be disagreeable, but to offer counterpoint.

    Anyone who has a 5th grade education reading my posts can discern I was anything but "positive as ever" yesterday.
    First of all, I have never S down your neck or anyone elses who didn;t start by attacking me and or my credibility.

    As for anyone writing incoherent nonsense regardless of where they are from, they deserve ignore and get it right away from me unless they try to dis me -- then I reply with vigor. This blackqnight putz has tried to dis me dozens of times and been thumped with factual replies for it. To wit here:

    I have been generally positive on the stock since october 2012 at $12. We hedged at $26 early last summer when it popped up too hard, and we called it a screaming buy at $21 when morons tried to stuff it too hard. We said it should get to $30 (trading around the core when it did), then 35 and maybe even $40 by EOY. We also wrote why we sold out the big trading sleeve at $43 and hedged the core back to the 50d ema we said was in sight and that the stock was overbought as the momo crowd rushed in. Does that sound one way positive to you? Forget that we have explained it to a few times... this reply is to explain why he is full of S to others who may not know better. Look, MPEL is cheapest in group on quant work, and also has the biggest % incr in footprint and adj ebitda coming f18m. It is a screaming buy below $30 -- best upside in the group that is now low enough to buy any of them.

    Dopey comments on optimism too. The stock won't be a chart buy until it's back above the 50dema as a minimum -- so one actually has to have conviction about the fundamentals, quant and mgmt and spec capital to buy the stock down here. Count us in.

    As for the rest?
    1. We've said japan is worth 2 cents/sh until legis and co selection. The earliest completion dates are 5-6 yrs fwd. Key point is MPEL will be in the game.

    2. Manila opens 4q. They will have more than no revenue.

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    BUYBACK cont.

    2. ... carrying the ramping costs associated with Manila in 4q this year and Studio City mid CY15 as confirmed by Ho yesterday.

    3. You say you "would be a seller down here" -- what is holding you back? Have at it man; short your gnads off! Others might suspect that when the dust settles on Ho's revelations over the next couple of days, and barring a likely temporary and perhaps bigger than seen yet big leg down for the entire market on geopolitical events, the guys who are long the group with hedges still on likely are pulling box shorts starting this week, and paired shorts, yes, even on MGM are likely going to come off quickly now. All the bad news is in for the sector. Maybe ambitious buying will wait for data sets for some pm, but the left tail risk discussed the last time the stock touched $29 is now on the screen... even WYNN broke below $200 yesterday and LVS broke to post earnings call lows be for an untold number of hours or days to go. LOL

    4. The key point is that MPEL has already monstrous adj ebitda relative to footprint and huge operating leverage (BIGGER adj ebitda) rolling forward as the new properties double the footprint f12m and they start producing revs to go with the preopening exp being carried. Then they will finish up iconic Tower 5 which will become the premium mass site of choice on Cotai. Then they will proceed with expansion phases of Manila and Studio City... and then the Japan program.

    Reread #4 a few times... MPEL is already cheapest in the group on adj ebitda metrics, and ebitda will be amply growing for years to come. And just think, mgmt and the BOD believe they have sufficient capital and adj ebitda generation to not only do their buildouts over time... they can cover the new buyback program and do the dividends.

    btw, are you aware that Packer and Ho's companies own 67% of MPEL? THEIR INTERESTS ARE DIRECTLY ALIGNED WITH LONGS HERE!

  • Reply to

    Buyback not as good as it looks.

    by dav_ing01 Aug 7, 2014 10:24 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 8, 2014 7:24 AM Flag

    Congratulations! In the crush of incredibly stupid posts seen here, especially of late, yours is one of the most mind-numbing of all time! It demonstrates a comprehensive lack of knowledge about the capital markets, this business and this company in particular. Let me guess -- you have been involved in this stock since shorting a whopping 1000 shares yesterday at the open, or you are a first year at a lightweight trading firm and have WAY too much of your peanut sleeve short this stock at the open yesterday. LOL I'll discuss your points as if they are meaningful just for comic relief of the group malaise seen over the last two weeks in particular.

    Buybacks ALWAYS make sense when they make sense, and as I discussed extensively when and why they initiated a geared common stock dividend, a buyback program would have been a better capital distribution program... a point even more relevant today than it was late last year. Particularly in light of the Macau GGR expectations and group stock resets shared by Ho yesterday, a meaningful buyback initiation for MPEL is VERY compelling. Why?

    1. Buybacks done chasing stocks ever higher when organic, tactical and strategic growth opportunities are waning often don't add shareholder value over time. This buyback is being introduced when MPEL has one of the best footprint and its organic, tactical and strategic growth opportunities are monstrous. Your $25 is wishful thinking for longs (even more than shorts in this context), but at $30, the $500m would take out 3% of the stock -- a very nice chunk when that "use" of forward free capital from adj ebitda accumulation will likely drive ROI in excess of MPEL's best in class overall ROIC metrics. As anyone with a corp finance background understands, this will be the first of a series of authroizations.

    2. MPEL's numbers fell short of consensus rev and eps yesterday largely because of the VIP slowdown... yet their adj ebitda remains rock solid, despite carrying the rampi

  • Reply to


    by matrixtrade123 Aug 7, 2014 5:05 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    hey matrix...

    Good to see you back on balance here. Your posts are those of someone who knows the gaming business and, except for when you are out of sorts going off on me, worth the time to read.

    Better days are ahead for MPEL and for the stock, even if we have a few days of silt settlement on Ho's candor today. Do see my post on the "New World Order"... the entire group has gone off together, right at 10%, over the last 10 days as the market has tried to figure out the difference between cagey, unsure and ignorant ceo presentations followed by Ho saying, essentially, "Sorry guys, but now we see that things are going to a lower but more sustainable run rate faster than we and everyone else thought just 3 months ago."

    On that note, one of the analysts thanked Murren for his forthrightness discussing how no one building in macau really knows how long things will take. Credit Murren for saying THEIR projects has some as yet unquantified delays in completion coming, but chuckle at the concept of projecting his anxiety to others' construction schedules over their very weak Q in Macau, likely fading whale play real time in Vegas vs last Q, and their own construction mgmt process in Macau.

    For cronjms and tberry, also quality guys posting here, I don't think Lawrence deliberately misled anyone on his May guidance outlook for macau. Rather, i think he likely saw they were light in April and hoped they could "fix it" in May and June which did not play out that way. Consider that Ho had no motivation to over promise the Q or the year (no secondary planned or done, no personal holdings sold, etc) when his entire track record has been excellent UPOD and execution.

    As i said, everyone long this stock and sector got hurt today. And the year has been tough generally -- consider that ave hedge fund returns are below 3% ytd. But not many companies have 20%+ ebitda growth.

    The footprint enhancement is going to be spectacular f12m. The stock will respond.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    MPEL's revelations today shook up expectations Macau growth but good today, and certainly not just for MPEL but for the entire group evidenced by the stocks taking another leg down. WYNN is now thru $200 with volume and LVS and MGM were hit again too, both down over 10% including today's punch. In context, all four names are down more than 10% since mid last week. See good comp chart

    Ignore that the broad market is down 10 of the last 12 days for this thread and things in the Ukraine and ebolaville as well as espionage "allegations" (might both sides be cybernetic pirates?) and the talking heads beginning to whisper "time to panic again" rising in the backdrop. The broader topics aside, it will be a few days, and really more data points over time, before the silt settles out, but good to see MPEL stock hold up relatively well once the pm figured out the Q and what Ho had to say. Obviously there is some good sponsorship for the shares as buysiders filter out the noise and shifting sand and think through bailing, staying in, pulling hedges, adding shares or some combination of all that.

    Good to hear Ho affirm capping for Studio City (initial building) next month and on schedule for mid CY!% opening. Subtle, but Ho also said Manila will be opening 4Q (ready for Golden Week?). We think even the weakest of the weak analyst group will soon be thinking about Macau GGR in the sustained 10% or so range as the infrastructure comes on and more venues are opened, which will redirect the conversation to which companies are best poised to take advantage of those dynamics. No one has the footprint expansion MPEL has coming f18m; Ho's street cred took a hit today (going from 15% to single digit GGR estimate for Macau this year in 3 months time), but so did Steve along with Adelson and Murren with their updates and posturing ranging from cagey to out of touch on VIP, mass and crossover impacts ytd and 2H14.

    MPEL should do at least as well as the best of the rest f12m.

  • Reply to

    luck adjusted property EBITDA

    by drjackcar Aug 7, 2014 3:15 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    they said there was another $5m of one time costs on top of those pieces, but your conclusion is spot on... Still amazed to see Altria down roughly 1/3 yoy... that $100m was a big piece of the pie here when COD mass was still up 38% YOY.

    Unfortunately for the other U.S. and HK listed companies, Ho told everyone the Macau GGR outlook was lower for this Q and perhaps into EOY... not just for MPEL, for all US and HK listed macau names -- so everyone is in the pool together now. it may take a few days for the silting process on other names, but good to see this hold up on a rough market day where they delivered really rough news.

    Glad to hear that manila is still 4Q14 and Ho still talking about Studio City for mid year CY15. Hey Dave! Ho said they will cap MSC (the first phase) next month. contrary to Murren's view that no one knows how things will go in Macau buildings, MPEL/Ho seems to have a grip on construction contracts/timelines.

  • Reply to

    sifting thru the commentary

    by drjackcar Aug 7, 2014 12:10 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    lots of angst there matrix... jusdt because you have generally been a quality poster and are pals with Dave, a quality guy and friend here, I'll reply to your angst

    My call for $30 (54 weeks ago with the stock at $21) seemed optimistic to many here, just as $40 does over the last few weeks as i have reigned in our optimism from $50 back to the original PT of $50 for CY15. Our $50 PT came about as the stock ripped past $35 and we said, late last fall, momo guys chasing it will likely press $40 by EOY -- they did and if you go back in time, you'll find we have been VERY good at calling turns in this name, despite your negative commentary suggesting otherwise. Those who bought when we shared we were, hedged when we explained why we thought that was indicated, and sold out trade sleeves have done brilliantly well here because we have. Those who trade blindly often get caught, especially when a company stumbles as Macau and other drivers have caused for WYNN, LVS, MPEL and others in macau of late. Ho's reset has been amply aired by us even if others don't grip the story. The stock has held up well because the story is not about disappt mass growth, it is about manila, MSC ph 1 and 2, and tower 5 at cod, al;ong with confidence Ho's team will do at least as well as others in asia gaming.

    As for "we" -- shared here more than once is to my co-pm partner and team. As with any other guys mm for more than one cycle, we make mistakes, but in our case they usually do not cost us much. As for what anyone net short knew that we did not since ho's update? That is called insider info and people go to jail for that. Those making money unhedged short here took huge risk thru this morning. But Ho told all the real story on macau today.

    Disagree entirely that WYNN and LVS are "executing" better than MPEL. LVS numbers are up on ramping the big footprint growth and fat holds. WYNN up only on VIP converts to mass. Street catching on the real story now so the group is in reset

  • Reply to

    sifting thru the commentary

    by drjackcar Aug 7, 2014 12:10 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    You are a bright guy and actually understand the quant here, but Ho's commentary today really clarifies and bridges the gaps between Steve's group not wanting to clarify anything about converting VIP to mass, Murren's confusion over their 3% ebitda Cotai performance (compare with over 20% at COD) and Shel's discussion of only the low holds while ignoring the overline holds in explaining why things were softer there than anticipated. It's also pretty clear LVS didn't use the private jets 2Q the way Steve did either...

    Shuli's article again underscores that she and her sources have no idea what they are even talking about. Premium mass players with the house have direct credit arrangements -- they are not out in parking lots swiping UnionPay cards on unauthorized card machines... and, as noted on other threads in more detail both today and prior, once the conversion of a bunch of the VIP to premium mass is done, the pool from which to draw additional conversion is depleted. Perhaps hard for some to sift through, but Ho told the world today so much as others are now pursuing the same tactics they have a two year head start on, but from here forward it will not be as easy to add to the pool of desirable high end players -- for MPEL or any other companies. Do your own math, but if mass is going to grow at Ho's reset of say only 20% for Macau (before considering the market share slice up implications of coming footprint expansion for MPEL and others) and VIP (now down to say 55% of total macau GGR vs almost 70% last year) is going to flatline for the near term, that speaks to mid single digits GGR for Macau, again, a big change from his 15% guidance in May.

    It has been a tough couple of weeks and day for all sector longs, even those with box or paired trade hedges of say 50% or more vs long positions, but good to see the stock holding on quite well considering the magnitude of Ho's reset outlook today.

  • Reply to

    sifting thru the commentary

    by drjackcar Aug 7, 2014 12:10 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    All of us are disappointed with the MPEL reset of expectations and execution shared today, but trying to dis me as wrong on this story is the commentary of a dolt. You must not recall you were the one suggesting back around year end, that $75 was going to happen on this stock this year?

    Here's a review of my reply to the last time you tried to dis me.

    "Since your posts discussing $75 was coming this year, pretty much all of your posts have been worth reading -- one of the handful or so of posters here in that category. Alas, on this thread, your appeal is to two of the putz aliases rating thumbs up.

    You have since "adjusted" your PT thinking, I know, but we suggested that $75 was far too ambitious for 2014 and repeated then, and now again, that our baseline PT remains at $50 as shared in late November with the stock pulling back to ~$33, and which we said may well surge up to $40+ by EOY as paid bashing was likely to fade to paid hyping consistent with momo chasing and more than just us were pulling box hedges and the stock had gotten too cheap again.

    All that happened into EOY and the chase ran up the pole to mid $45 in the new year -- after we bailed out at $43 on the trade sleeve and hedged the core suggesting 50d ema would soon be in play -- remember? You even had a thread noting it if I recall. In fact, since 2012 this story has pretty much gone right on script with the add-on of the double top at $45+ in March and then the china economy noise/sky is falling bs from media, analysts and paid dip S bashers all converging on the sector incl MPEL, all to the effect of giving those who can think a brilliant chance to add shares down here."

    N.B. the 50d ema was about $37 back then. As amply discussed here today, Ho has seriously reset expectations today - not just for MPEL, but all companies and also explaining the group drop. Pending further sector updates (this is all about quant) , our reset PT is now set at the single point at $40 by the Feb CC week.

  • Reply to

    the only positive I see is the buyback

    by toast22342000 Aug 7, 2014 8:24 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 7, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Same... but give that some more thought...

    Easy to be #$%$ at their unbridled enthusiasm on May12th CC: "Golden Week was phenomenal", unconcerned with competition, no concerns about VIP recovering later in the year and generally super positive on the Q underway including being entirely dismissive of the noise now "reclassified" as the various uncertainties over china's players, suggesting they were comfortable with Ho's prior estimates of 15% overall GGR growth for Macau CY14, etc.

    Now all of that has morphed into: solid/market-matching mass revenue growth (35% ytd but going to 20% he suggests with flattish VIP meaning single digit GGR for Macau -- about half what he said 3 months ago), 20% ebitda growth for MPEL (solid considering the 10% ramp in compensation costs yoy and ongoing ramp of preopening/carry costs for MSC and Manila gear ups without any rev to show in those venues yet) , and suggestion that VIP is likely to remain subdued for the near term, perhaps resuming enough to drive GGR growth for Macau early CY15.

    Altogether, there has been a sea change and clearly Ho is resetting the bar on where they see things unfolding, and no, not just for them but Macau broadly, but those lowered sights are still dramatically better than Vegas (incl the puff Q just ended).

    Clearly they knew things were going to come up a punch in the face short of what the street was expecting for the 2Q before they had June results in (so at the latest say on May 13th if one is not a cynic) -- and not just for them but Macau broadly.

    In this context, it is really interesting to see the BOD authorize the share repurchase plan in between. If I knew things were going to soften up to the extent they saw by week, I'd have waited to announce beginning a buyback too... until right after we got a chance to reset the bar as I've been discussing here today. Yeah... especially if I owned 67% of the Company as Packer and Ho's other companies do.

    they are all in here for years not days.

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