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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 488 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    next week earnings..

    by matrixtrade123 14 hours ago
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 12 hours ago Flag

    WYNN "missed" revs because overall Macau VIP was down on the soup to nuts macau noise plus WC anbd VIP slide, offset hugely by their Vegas fly-ins from Asia (and "Latins" LOL as told by Steve) to Vegas and, more significantly than any of that, by converting a bunch of their former VIP book to direct credit "premium mass" as they all try to play follow [MPEL] the leader. Even more pointedly, that conversion from 3% of VIP revs before commisions to 45% (check it back if you want, but 45%) hold on mass incl premium mass last Q is what enabled them to beat EPS despite the rev shortfall. Steve and crew had a pre CC huddle to make sure no one discussied that series of confluences with any clarity, and on that thewy did a wonderful job of obscuring what the learned quant guys knew going in... LOL

    Contrary to moronic analyst "research" and general cluelessness, MPEL is going to report a robust rev and adj ebitda Q despite all of the bs hurled at them from the sell side and media dolts. Just as plain as day that is the outcome. If what you said was MPEL is all set from here forward on Manila opening 4Q and clear visionary leadership (mass and premium mass and legit entertainment/spa/resort visitation vs VIP gaming as the strategy key, then I agree completely.

    as for Bain's comments on hold, if MPEL has a weak hold of any relevance, he must be saying that similar to last Q, mass/premium mass was low relative to WYNN's 45%... but MPEL 36% was stunningly good considering the VIP conversion aspects... Ho and Sy in Manila have two very special books for VIP and direct credit there, too. As Bob Marley used to sing, "everything... gonna be alright"

    And hey cronjms, MPEL has been carrying all of the costs (expensed over $75m t18m) and capitalized a bnunch more interest into the property in manila as poart of pre-opening exp and capex and that will continue into the opening ~oct 1. What will change is that they will have revenues there in 4Q. The street has $0 4Q.

  • Reply to

    BUYBACK RESUMES TODAY

    by squeezetracker 19 hours ago
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 18 hours ago Flag

    Greg,
    Yes we did... As you know, open market purchases are making a BIG statement down here... the 16b program sales are not. Two days ago the redhead dimwit (she's a big Ackman worshipper and ridiculously biased for someone holding herself out as a journalist) had a guest on Bloomberg suggesting things might be over now based on "all of the insider selling"... he sounded just like all of the multiple alias and other idiots here tinkling all over themselves blithering stupidity at every post. No, those are not meaningful sales -- they are preprogrammed sales and no doubt they are all #$%$ to see very valuable options get taken out at this lame low levels.

    Down here, especially considering the committed sponsorship of at least 5 big players who want to ride this above $100 within 12 months, the risk/reward matrix looks good to us -- better than it did to us with the big core we had at $38 prior to hedging it out at $80 and then closing it out along with our last of a dozen or so trade sleeves (long and short as you know) we flipped here over the last 18 months.

    We did a couple of peanut trades here last week before and the morning after earnings making lunch money, but after yesterday, frankly, we are thrilled to have the chance to take another bite at the apple down here so stupidly discounted.

    Unbelievable and reassuring to see so many idiotic short posts here... a sure sign of the coming trampling of their positions, likely well before the FTC gives Bill his hat back with a pile of S in it and then letting Uncle Carl, Stiritz, Chapman, Perry and others box his ears with it, thus putting all that S back where it started (between his ears eyes nose and mouth) as he's begged for since the start of his "end of the world" bs -- more at "end of his fund" or at least end of capital-justifying returns" again this year than his "wish in one hand" demise of HLF. LOL

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker 19 hours ago Flag

    Short dopes calling for zero again? Hilarious.

    HLF'S 3 day wait post earnings release is over as of last night... gee, do you think they might be buying bunch today now that the stock is hammered to below Chapman, Perry and Stiritz's basis, and $20 cheaper than they thought was cheap last Q? LOL

    We'll even consider putting on a small trade sleeve while the pantswetters and moron shorts try to push it down some more. ROFLOL

  • Reply to

    Going for Osaka

    by grftt 22 hours ago
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 19 hours ago Flag

    grftt,
    This is great news... Ho calls MPEL's mission "shaping the future of Asian gaming" and he's certainly been brilliant on Macau and likely to show EVERYONE what he can do in Manila in terms of developing legitimate entertainment and resort accommodations in addition to best in class gaming operations.

    MPEL's has earned a spot on the roster in japan, and great to see him out there riding high.

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 31, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    now how do you like those apples? PCLN next in queue...

  • Reply to

    CHART FUN: PCLN READY TO RIP (AGAIN)

    by squeezetracker Jun 28, 2014 12:39 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 31, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    "Retail and commercial travel is soaring these days -- the airlines' rasm, casm, load, ebitdar and eps data for the 2Q and increased guidance info is going to be stunning too. Do note the hoteliers and car rental agencies, the other big pieces of business for PCLN and the other OTAs, are also cranking. PCLN will be reporting record numbers this Q and the smart money is setting up for the blow out Q and ripping move coming."

    Is anyone reading here surprised EXPE has excellent results? LOL PCLN is next

  • Reply to

    Shuli Ren steps in it again

    by drjackcar Jul 29, 2014 9:46 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    Lake Mead is a great place to go boating, just 30 miles from Vegas... The drought is kind of ruining it these days though.

    Steve could sell a boat there after the water is completely drained by a very thirsty So Cal -- leaving only a Mirage (pun intended) out there in the desert.

    But you are right toast as is drjack: Steve's excitement about Cotai is not misplaced... delighted that his new water feature "Palace" there will be what Bellagio is to the Vegas strip... a landmark traffic draw, benefitting other properties while they benefit the Palace. And Studio City (phase one that is) will be done at least 6 months before the new WYNN property. All great news for MPEL's franchise development and adj ebitda growth.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Looks like the box hedges are about all off now... and even the dumbest of the analysts are figuring it out after Steve raved about July being off to a GREAT start in Macau...

    the bs shorting gig is up now...

  • Reply to

    Shuli Ren steps in it again

    by drjackcar Jul 29, 2014 9:46 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Her entire body of work is dog S. Same for "analyst" McKnight. WYNN's earnings beat was on the very large bump in mass play and mega hold of 45% on same! They also put up way better than forecast Vegas because of their flown in Asian players. Steve also commented on Latin players -- never heard him talk about that before. LOL.

    Listen to the whole call incl Q&A to appreciate it, but they are very focused on and doing a good job converting VIP players to direct (premium mass VIP). They are also committed to not talking about how much VIP is now shifted over to premium mass. I wonder how many people think that is a trivial shift... we certainly do not! In fact, check back to last Q's report to note Steve tipping his hat, sincerely, to MPEL's leadership in this regard. Steve says he's confident WYNN will get its share of premium mass players or "his name isn't Steve", and i am confident he will too -- as I have said, he's a brilliant operator, almost as good as Lawrence. LOL

    MPEL's going to get it share too -- a comment Ho said in an eloquent yet understated way on MPEL's 1Q call, and MPEL's mix is about 30% ahead of WYNN as of last Q and likely working on making further progress this Q. Everyone at the party should understand by now that Macau VIP was weak last Q on this conversion aspect as well as the action to use the private jet fleets at WYNN (and perhaps MGM) to bring Asian players into Vegas as an opportunistic response to all of the Tam and noise bs of the media and weak analysts covering the sector. Steve shared his contempt for all of that in a careful way on the call... fun to listen to if you understand Steve.

    August 7 should be a fun day for MPEL longs.

  • Reply to

    ot hlf

    by squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 10:28 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    just closed out at $59.77... mpre lunch money LOL

    enough tooling on the idiotpumper s head.

    p.s. this trip was in at 59.39

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    WYNN's entire call made it clear that the bs noise is just that, and the short gig is up on Macau. Check it out when you can.

    When you get a chance to listen to the call, note the disgenuine comp/compliments leveled at LVS. funny... but notice they don't compare themselves to MPEL.... chasing MPEL's tactics on premium mass conversion from VIP -- and not sharing the math, telling the furst analyst, who must be reading our papers, "you are ahead of us on this Tom." lol

  • Reply to

    ot hlf

    by squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 10:28 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    just blew it out at $60.01. LOL

    we'll buy it again if the morons will short it down to below $59.5 pre call... but enough tooling ion this idiotputz.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    I see the putz who follows me around thinks we lost money on our HLF trade last night... nope... LOL we were out with lunch money for the staff on a 4k trade before the release hit the wire last night. As those who do click on our posts to see what we are trading/investing in understand, we are actually good at this money mgmt thing. LOL

    Well, I should say those who are not gumptarded surely understand... we are glad this idiotpumper s head is short here... and just for fun now, we'll trade hlf (long) again going into the CC at 11:00. Right here at 59.25 looks good -- we'll do just 2k shares for fun.

    done...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 29, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Listening to the cc now, but Steve is explaining that things are going along just about exactly as we have been suggesting. And now, as he clarifies that Macau is just fine and all of the noise is plain bs noise and that "VIP is stabilized and mass/direct is growing very nicely in macau" and how excited he is about the new Palace and, oh btw, the smoking room builds are going to solve that topic and, ahem, have been a bit disruptive to the floors while the construction is going on but that will soon be history and how labor is not going to be a butch for any operator either... well... the stock has gone from down $10/share when I started this thread right before the call started to green $1/share now. LOL

    It will take some time for the street to process what Steve is telling them, but the bs is over. Great news for MPEL stock.

    P.S. It was a no b rainer to take off the quick trade on WYNN this morning, but MPEL is still on moron sale. LOL

  • WYNN released this morning and as noted on prior threads, the supposition that Steve convinced his top tour operators to bring the VIP players to Vegas for the Q as a good place to avoid the glare of Tam and other corruption/UnionPay/visa bs "crackdowns" is more than a good hunch... LOL

    We'll take in the call for sure, but their numbers on mass play were excellent, significantly more than enough to overcome the revenue shortfall from VIP in Macau and to drive a solid EPS beat for the Q.

    Given MPEL's business strategy puts them well out in front as the lead dog in the direct credit (premium mass) and mass player franchise development theme, the WYNN report is indeed a great preview of what MPEL will have accomplished in a Q where VIP was down and mass play was up more than 35% overall... MPEL should be better than WYNN on all counts -- again.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 28, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    agree with the gist of your comments, but China's economy is a far cry from being in trouble, even if we cut the reported 7.4% GDP numbers in half.

    Beyond that, some still seem to think VIP and Shuli sentiment is the end all to forward performance... weary of pointing out that tour operator visits to Macau are almost unimportant to MPEL... not so for macau broadly, but very much so for MPEL vbased on the business plan, the reduced level of VIP in MPEL's mix, and Ho's running commentary (last in May) that overall GGR will push mid teens for the year, but mass will be more than double that and MPEL will get its share enroute to being the dominant participant for elite mass play in Macau.

    That said, between the partner in Manila and the MPEL proprietary database of tour operators and premium mass players from Asian venues apart from HK and mainlanders, we are pretty sure VIP is going to be a big part of what Ho calls the "100%" hitting the ground running in Manila. Looking forward to his update on August 7...

    WYNN's report tomorrow will also prove useful... we bet Steve is doing a lot better in Macau than the naysayers hope. LOL

  • See the GRAsia article of that title for the whole article, but almost a month after we drew the picture, Union Gaming's analyst has begun to figure out the 2Q softness in VIP in macau as the junkets laid low about playing in Macau --opting for private jet trips to WYNN and MGM instead as I suggested was happening in my July 7th post. The central planners have since told Tam to #$%$, no doubt... they just can't kill the Golden Goose that macau gaming represents for them. Hey Union Gaming research director, you really ought to tell your underlings to connect the fact that MPEL and LVS, in particular, are converting lots of VIP play over to the more obscure and massively more profitable direct credit (premium mass) play, and that their ytd VIP reduction is likely call it about 1.5B in the second Q alone. btw, tyhis dynamic is also likely benefitting WYNN and MGM there.

    From my post on July 7th here:

    "the good news about Vegas VIP last month is that Steve and Shel must have done some "old school" charter flights bringing in the Asian players. That let Tam pound his head into the pile of bs he helped mound regarding UnionPay machines (that is all about nothing of meaning to the elite venues), Visa nonsense (5 vs 7 days), smoking "bans" (that will turn out to be a benefit to those who do not want to be in smoke-filled casinos and yet a convenient place to smoke for those who do want to breath tobacco air all night), "corruption" crackdowns (yawn, but good comedy from Tam), table limits (that really aren't remotely adhered to even as rough guidelines), and so on and on... and since then he's clarified that UnionPay restrictions are just bs and tried to make the soccer excuse for why things looked slow for VIP last month.

    ...Tam and all of the central planners over there likely have had a huddle or two about protecting the Golden Goose that is Macau gaming, visitation, tourism, travel, restaurants, credit fees, etc.... All good news for Macau's future GGR growth."

  • Reply to

    listen to the Pimco guy's interview

    by toast22342000 Jun 20, 2014 8:16 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 27, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    another real topic as contrasted with the endless drivel from the multi alias putz

  • Reply to

    COD Manila Opening Coming Right Up

    by squeezetracker Jun 27, 2014 8:10 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 27, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    Those who are unfamiliar with the COD Manila project should read all of grftt's posts and also the 10k to learn more, but following the first phase of Manila, the second phase is already in the planning process.

    COD Manila Phase 1 is built on 15 acres; the expansion phase will be built on the adjacent land owned by the development partnership -- an ADDITIONAL 42 ACRES... and as announced by MPEL's partner last week, the partner is now looking to acquire additional adjacent land there.

    As also discussed in the 10k and the now in planning stage bigger expansion phase of Macau Studio City is on the same program...

    MPEL's
    Vision: "The Future is Ours"

    Mission Satement: "We shape the future of gaming and entertainment in Asia"

  • Click the title below to watch the full interview and read the article, but here are a few exceprts on why Mobius is bullish on China .

    Part 1

    [Templeton's] Mobius Says Not Too Late to Buy China With 20% Upside

    July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets, talks about the outlook for markets, central banks' policies, and his investment strategy. He speaks with Angie Lau and Rishaad Salamat in Hong Kong on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge." (Source: Bloomberg)

    Mark Mobius says it’s not too late to buy into the rally in Chinese stocks.

    The executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group predicts the nation’s equity market will climb another 20 percent, following a 19 percent surge in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index from March 20 through yesterday. Mobius, whose $12 billion Templeton Asian Growth Fund has outperformed 94 percent of peers this year, favors state-owned banks and energy companies because of their cheap valuations and the government’s plans to open up state-dominated industries.

    An extension of the rally would give investors another chance to profit after they pulled almost $700 million from U.S. exchange-traded funds tracking China stocks since the advance started, the biggest outflows among emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg. Chinese shares are rebounding as policy makers accelerate spending and loosen some banks’ reserve requirements to keep economic growth from slipping below their 7.5 percent annual target.

    “Usually when you enter a phase like this, you’re looking at at least 20 percent upside” from current levels, Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $40 billion in emerging markets, said in an interview yesterday in Hong Kong. “If you look at the valuations of SOEs, you’ll see that they are very cheap.”

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