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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 541 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 7 minutes ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Like I said, somtingwong wid dat math. [sic]

    45/30.8 is 146%, or the base plus 46% -- a 46% increase since the stock was at $30.8. But that is not what you were writing about.

    You were writing about the "Since March, Mpel -42%" [sic]. The 3rd grade math for that -- the decline from 45 to 31 -- is like this: $(45 - 30) = a drop of $15, and that number divided by the peak of 45 would be this math: $-15/$45 = (33)%.

    Again, what that highlights is that MPEL has dropped a ridiculous amount and those who can do math and comprehend what is shared here of late know that MPEL is now the single cheapest stock in the group on cash flow and growth curve metrics.

    That said, now this alias will join your 15 others on ignore.

  • Reply to

    Wow, what a reversal for MPEL

    by ironbar_nov8 Jun 10, 2014 2:36 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    On the risk reward matrix, we called the downside tail out as $28, with the upside tail at $60+.

    We may see a reterst of today's low (I doubt it), but we may also see the right side tail come about no later than the Dec Q results are out.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    You've posted that errant calculation on at least 6 or so aliases I put on ignore, but you are wrong on every one of them. What kind of math do they teach over there in somtingwongville?

    Try more like around 31% down from the top for MPEL... but just what is it that you are trying to emphasize, that MPEL has the best overall execution and financial metrics and yet trades at the biggest discount of adj ebitda? LOL

  • Reply to

    Wow, what a reversal for MPEL

    by ironbar_nov8 Jun 10, 2014 2:36 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    the group is bouncing... those who want to add might want to wait to see if those dumber than dirt can push it down to a retest of today's new low while some of us stand around with the knicleball catcher's mitts. LOL

    We think anything below $35 is cheap vs what is coming for MPEL. Our PT remains $50+

  • Reply to

    sorry Squeeze but..

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 10, 2014 1:18 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    LOL... you certainly don't nee to apologize to me for having a different view than mine... best case, I can learn something when knowledgeable people disagree with me. On the other hand, when people who know far less than I do on a topic and share opinion as if it is fact, that is good humor for me and anyone else in esotericaville.

    From your comments, unless you were being ironic, you would be surprised to learn of my quant and street background -- and the list you cited has nothing to do with modern quant methods involving financial markets and instruments analysis or technical (i.e., chart) analysis, the latter being a distinctly separate discipline with all major sellside firms having their own technical groups in addition to quant and fundamental analyst groups. Many are brilliant -- none follow this sector. LOL

    Further, those reading my commentary on technical analysis here and in more serious venues over time know my view is that technical analysis (charts) are nice for identifying entry/exit points and confirming price/vol trend analysis, but they are no more than an ancillary tool vs the primacy of fundamental and quant analysis which are determinative.

    WRT technical analysis, I've also made the point that for every breakout or forward perspective on charts that works, there is one that fails. None of those discounts renders chart analysis "disgraceful or a complete joke" though... in fact, I can inform you that the vast majority of money managers that have been at it successfully for any length of time refers to charts regularly (Bill O'Neil, whom I first met in 1984, founded O'Neil Data Systems as a daily overnight Fedex chart service to call it 100% of serious money managers back in the days before the internet)... again, not as a primary trading guide, but as an important reference point since many traders are trading the charts, and essentially every professional manager is referencing them as an adjunct to fundamental/quant work.

  • Reply to

    Now you watch and see..

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 10, 2014 1:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Well said

  • Reply to

    this is going to shake the sector to its core

    by toast22342000 Jun 10, 2014 1:02 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Holy S is that funny... tears running down my face.

    Is that blood or celebratory red wine running down the streets?

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    The group is badly broken down here... but here I'll emphasize MPEL.

    Despite best in the sector revenue and ebitda growth in percentage terms, and the fact that MPEL has the biggest footprint expansion in percentage terms over the next 2 years, the stock has not only broken down on a double top fail, it has now completed a head and shoulders hammering... the group has done much the same, to the point where both the MPEL's relative strength metrics are down hard now the group is following.

    Against that, excellent to see the pummeled tech and consumer discretionary stocks and even heavy cyclicals begin to claw their way back up the right side of deep etch bases now too... just as the DOW and S&P 500 are zooming off to new all time highs.

    The good news of all that is while temporary dislocations happen with frequency, exceedingly strong fundamentals and objective quant metrics/valuation always overcome temporary bs noise and errant analysis; and MPEL's fundamentals and hammered valuation are inconsistent with the chart.

    What a great set-up for a V or U reversal given that the global economic indicators are improving -- even in China and Europe now...

    We think WYNN and LVS are also set up for a snapback reversal... and note that no 13g selling is happening from either Crown Resorts (Packer's company) or Melco Entertainment (Ho's company), which together control 68% of outstanding MPEL shares.

  • Reply to

    Dividend pay date

    by cronjms Jun 6, 2014 10:28 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    An update to the Company's "on or about june 6" timing and estimated conversion amount for ADS shares...

    MS just advised us the ADS shares will receive the dividend of $.128/share on June 13th (Friday the 13th LOL).

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    We all know that industry analysts are quoted by the media, especially when the news is either really good or really bad for a given sector or company... too bad really that ex Bain, the "analysts" following this sector are uniformly weak sauce... that is why the buyside research staff and pm pretty much ignore the sellside analysts.

    But for those who have never worked on the street, you may not be aware that a primary objective for most research directors and their staff is avoid being apart from the analyst group on ratings, estimates and PT -- particularly when stocks in that group are dropping. It is okay to be "wrong" when the entire cluster of analysts is also wrong, but it can cost analysts and research directors their jobs when they are too bullish when everyone else goes negative and stocks drop.

    As for missing the turn to the upside and or not being optimistic enough? Almost no one ever gets terminated for that, and often incentive payouts/spiffs in the research group are not even impaired on this error... so it takes some chutzpah to differentiate oneself on the upside of PTs and bullishness. And you can see that the weak analysts comprising this cluster F group all move together up and down with PT, rev/eps estimates and ratings... and few of them do any meaningful/detailed ebitda or adj ebitda work, and when they do, it is not value additive.

    As was the case in 2009 and 2012 and now again, ex Bain they are lowering their rev and eps estimates, and PTs all together in a Kumbaya, chicken little cluster F moment -- PRECISELY when they should be focusing on the turnaround coming for GGR, mass outperforming conservative estimates, and ebitda beating top of street estimates (before lowering). Again, fundamentals and quant trump bs noise over time... and time is compressing here now.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    they said the same thing about LVS at $38 and MPEL at $14 in 2012...

    Old news, but the analysts in this sector are amongst the weakest of all sectors.

    We do exclude David Bain from that broad brush... he's the only one doing anything other than following the penguin crowd.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 10, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Here's more news: Stock prices often reflect dislocation along the continuum of bs discounting of overdone concerns on one end and undue exuberance on the other.

    The weak sauce analysts, excluding only Sterne Agee and MS from what we can see, are all focused on what is happening week by week, contrived and obfuscating headline by headline, and afraid to commit to sound fundamental analysis and valuation metrics that always trump bs dislocation over time.

    Professional traders tend to focus their time and energy capitalizing on noise and bs... but the guys who actually understand the markets, this business and MPEL's singular position also understand the extraordinary opportunity the share price discount all this bs has wrought. They are the players who took out the hot money bailing as the stock pulled back to the 50 and then 200d ema and as Warren would tell you today (if he understood this business and MPEL), when others are fearful, it is time to be greedy.

    The best party of all the recent bs is that in MPEL's case, even if VIP flatlines for the rest of the year, MPEL should be able to beat the consensus out there BEFORE all these idiots lower their published estimates. And for the longtimers here, when was the last time analysts were reducing estimates into a quarter end? For MPEL this is all a great set up for what is coming on footprint expansion and adj ebitda growth f24m.

    Meanwhile, it can be said that zpackerr and Ho don;t care about the stock price near term and neither should SH, but that is lame. At $30/share, MPEL should be defending the stock by issuing debt to buy shares, confident that they can reissue equity later at double or even triple current levels as the adj ebitda growth curve continues on trajectory.

    On analyst incompetence,, ex Bain they all say no catalysts until 2H this year; but market looks forward more than a week and next headlines guys, but you are all missing it today as bad as you did in '09 and then again in late 2012

  • The bs train ride is about to end...

    Jun 10, 2014 5:16 AM ET

    Hong Kong stocks rose, with the benchmark index erasing this year’s loss, amid optimism that Chinese policy makers will succeed in countering the nation’s economic slowdown.

    The Hang Seng Index added 0.9 percent to 23,315.74 at the close today, taking its gain this year to less than 0.1 percent. The index hasn’t closed above its 2013 year-end level since the first trading day this year. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, also known as the H-share index, rose 1.1 percent to 10,518.80 today, paring its drop in 2014 to 2.7 percent.

    The Hong Kong stock benchmark rebounded 10 percent from this year’s low in March as manufacturing reports signal Asia’s biggest economy is stabilizing after growth weakened to 7.4 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2012 and below the official annual target of 7.5 percent. The government has since announced a series of policies to support the economy, including reserve-ratio cuts for regional lenders and directives to accelerate home-loan approvals.

    “China is restarting its stimulus program and boosting investor sentiment,” said Benjamin Tam, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at IG Investment Ltd. “The market is hoping the government will launch more stimulus later on and drive up growth in the second half.”

    The People’s Bank of China yesterday announced a 0.5 percentage-point cut in reserve requirements for some banks aimed at supporting smaller companies and agricultural borrowers. The reduction will take effect June 16. The move will add 70 billion yuan ($11.2 billion) to the financial system and should help ease credit conditions, Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note dated yesterday.

    Economic Support

    Other stimulus measures include railway and housing spending and tax relief for small businesses...

  • Reply to

    Union Gaming...........classic stuff

    by drjackcar Jun 9, 2014 12:01 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 9, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    LOL... They must have a few Asian hedge fund clients short a bunch to make it worth throwing themselves off the cliff with the stock already pounded down to at $31. We are surprised to see the stock breakdown further -- below our call that the bottom was likely in at $31.02 on May 15 barring a collapse of China's economy. Wait... is the sky falling down on China today?

    Sold out AAL and ALK this morning (WTI back above $104 on , what?... "underlying economic outlook improving globally" and jet A cost soon to start hurting airline ebitda ) and now just sold out DAL when it broke down below $42 on volume... those stocks s/b coming in...

    Now, other than pm boxing positions (offset short of the MPEL long) we'll see how stupid stupid can get on MPEL and keeping some powder dry, but we just added a small slug at $30.50.

    You have to give the funds short this stock some credit for their orchestration of bs noise into the 13 points of nonsense the media and weak sauce analysts gobbled up... speaking of the turkey game, who is gobbling up those 7M + shares today? Our chunk was trivial. And these dopes posting nonsense here all day are a riot. Did 2k of that 8.6m bought today come from yhoo readers "panic" selling out 50 shares at a time? Or maybe we should say how frightening this has been since 45+. LOL

    We understand that more than a few pm are now boxed out to 50% or so again. When the whistle blows (after everyone has digested "lunch" -- here the mass vs VIP implications), all of those box shorts will come off in unison as everyone jumps back in the pool.

    Hopefully MPEL is using or will use the buyback authorization... shades of AAPL and others getting clobbered when they have the firepower to quash shorting and pm longs' concerns that ebitda may only grow about 30% this year on flattish VIP. LOL Seriously, though, time to roll out the buyback canon lawrence -- the share repurchase ROI is even better than MPEL's best in group ROIC.

  • Reply to

    Added @ 30.71.....

    by edwardejenkins Jun 9, 2014 9:48 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 9, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    We just blew out of TRIP splitting those proceeds between EXPE and PCLN.

    We also just blew out AAL and ALK (holding onto DAL for now)... that gives us some wood to lay in on MPEL while the fire sale continues.

  • Reply to

    Just getting going again -- EXPE and PCLN too

    by squeezetracker May 23, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 9, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    just sold this out -- including both sleeves, a very fun 25% pop in less than a month. Proceeds added to expe and pcln now.

  • And MPEL has the best execution on mass in the group... some 80% ytd (through March likely higher now) at COD and 75% overall...

    where is THAT actual news being reported?

    The media and these so-called "analysts" (again, we exclude Sterne Agee's David Bain because he is actually a solid analyst doing legitimate work on the sector and individual companies) apparently don;t think that matters to forward results.

    Almost tragic to think the Telsey guy, working for Dana Telsy's retail/real estate property consulting agency
    is the only firm other than Sterne Agee to actually focus on what the pm/buyside analysts taking up the bid side of the tape down here are thinking about this sector down here.

    And still the pm paying for nonsense posts on this sector think it is worthwhile trying to shake out retail shares (less than 5% ownership of the company) while 3m+ shares trade daily? LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 9, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    and has anyone read any analyst or media piece discuss Ho's quote regarding "Golden Week was PHENOMENAL"? No? We haven't either... of course, other than Sterne Agee's David Bain, it is hard to believe this sector's weak "sellside research analysts" do anything other than read Barron's dippy emerging markets blog and other vacuous media articles.

    We're pretty sure that as MPEL has been maintaining its overall share of GGR of late, they are well ahead of the pack on mass and mass GR has been growing in the mid 30s% during April and May... big news coming on what that means to MPEL's ebitda and adj ebitda...

    If some of the longs here didn't see drjack's grftt's recent posts on mass and Tianamen Square influence on travel in china during the last week of May amidst all of the intense desperado and nonsense posting here over the last few days, consider finding and reading them -- great comments from them both.

    p.s. We'd love to see the short interest of Union Gaming's clients as of last Friday. LOL

  • It was finally uniformly negative... most of the analysts had gone from BUY to neutral or SELL even... only a couple of the analysts had the foresight (competence) to realize the stocks were at the bottom of the extended shakeout and that it was time to buy again. ALL four of the U.S. listed companies have gone up hard since (MPEL is still up some 200% despite the pullback from the double top at $45).

    Some of the longtimers here know we went back to 100% net long on LVS at $38, and that we waited until November to come back onto MPEL as the fog lifted on funding for Manila, but it was a great run for the group from that bottom.

    Over the last 5 days, a handful of this sector's very poor quality "analysts" have recapped all of the bs reasons they think VIP and GGR will drop to about half the 15% referenced by Ho and other company CEOs for 2014. This latest round of towel tossing and weak-minded penguins all jumping together was triggered by the poor GGR for the last week of May, but the cites now rehash all of the bs noise put up over the last two months and counting now: China gdp collapsing all the way to 7.4% (LOL), China's banking, shadow banking and real estate all going off the cliff, UnionPay cards under siege (as if), corruption crackdown on all of China, VIP tours consolidating, smoking bans, lions and tigers and bears, oh my... dragon boats, school exams, the moss on trees and the kitchen sink.

    It is going to be fun watching them all issue, "Ummm, Nevermind, now we think the sector is a screaming BUY" reports, probably no later than when the companies release the June quarter results and as soon as June GGR results and particularly some of the power of the mass gaming impact begins to be understood.

    Special thanks to all of them for letting us reload large down here... and while the tail risks (MPEL low $28/high $60+) remain there for this year, we like the risk reward picture right here, especially with Manila coming on line before Golden Week.

  • Reply to

    tax structure in Manila has advantages over Macau

    by drjackcar Jun 7, 2014 10:01 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 9, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    great article drjack... a nice contrast to the weak sauce analysts issuing "research reports" latewly on all of the nonsense reasons the "sky is falling" on china and macau business. LOL

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