I just went to read it because Shirley is so excited. A big yawn here...
It repeats old news discussed here various times prior that Galaxy 2 and Parisian are known and abuzz about being light on the current round of table allocations, in no small part because the two properties are not entirely model citizens in terms on new diversification.
No #$%$ they will be moving tables drjackoff... they are both rumored to be getting somewhere between 100 and 150 tables only at inception for those two properties. ho hum
Shirley aka jane tate toast drjackoff has gone full tilt on 20 posts a day with nothing to say on any one of them.
I liked him better as drjackoff and toast -- he shared bain's cheerleading more often on those than he has with this sheethead janetate alias... but he went full tilt as toast too... even moreso as tahoejack. LOL
My comments assume basic english language comprehension so that even the confederacy of dunces here should be able to figure out how stupifyingly idiotic their running commentary has been on this.
But just for you, I'll sum up the three key points made more succinctly. First, MPEL's Studio City certainly "checks all of the boxes" from Beijing, Macau and Leong Tac's desk with a big fat green felt tip permanent marker pen, and if any new property is to get a "fair and reasonable" table allocation, Studio City should top the list and be patted on the head by Beijing and Macau politicians for the overt effort to pursue diversification of tourism and entertainment.
Second, even if they do not get a robust table allocation for SC, it is certainly not going to be "lights out" or "reorg" or anything near those draconian levels for Studio City or the funding banks, and decidedly not for MPEL proper. There are many levers and switches at their disposal should they need them over the 17 months until the "400 tables" bogey even matters.
Third, the idiot brigade here led by Shirley Mason (goog that name for laughs and recall toast, drjackoff and janetate as well as many other alaises here are all that one #$%$ lad) continues to post dozens of idiotic repeats of the same headlines every day here... who must be paying him 2 cents per post? LOL
5. Another Fin101 concept is the notion of covenant waivers and consents. Assume that none of the foregoing framework or several other aspects are broguht to the fore to resolve any pseudo default getting less than 400 tables at inception might otherwise present. The lending group is highly unlikely to try to press MPEL on refinancing the entire line... what they want in terms of the development financing risk they are taking as a sundicated group is to have the best management team and operator possible building and then operating the IR they have extended credit too. Lawrence Ho likes to say that MPEL's employees are in good hands with MPEL... MPEL lenders are also in the very best hands in the business when it comes to Macau operations. In other words, there is likely NFW they are going to F around with MPEL's indentures and capital structure in the event the macau govt short changes property developers, incl MPEL in this context.
6. Have you noticed not a single detractor here or other blogs or even the dip #$%$ analysts have mentioned any of this stuff? That is because they have no idea what crop finance is all about... a final point on that is the real issue would be if MPEL were to try work an arrangement to take some of a fat allotment from SC to other venues (e.g., Altira's new VIP suite concepts after installing "at least" 400 tables... this is a real issue for the lenders in the event SC were to be able to work out a mod with its own partner.
Well, enough of this series... let the "big bad wolf" can huff and puff all day long on 400 tables -- he's not gonna blow the SC house down.
LOL at the morons already replying with their dog #$%$ here -- notice they have nothing to say except trying to dis me with 5th grade comments? F idiot cabal is right Shirley (aka drjackoff toast janetate). LOL
Further, there is obviously lots of slack in the current table counts and electronic tables on Macau, meaning that more tables are not really going to be needed until gaming velocity recovers hard, and then absorbs increased table limits on the private salons and public floors.
3. The 400 tables is a complete red herring for several reasons. First, it does not come into effect until late october 2016, not on the open during Q#15, October 2016. Second, MPEL can internal rework the partnership agreement should it become necessary/desirable to avoid a technical default. A simple example would be like this: if they get only 240 tables, they could transfer in 160 from other venues and modify the 60/40 GR sharing to 75% for MPEL at 400 tables. Third, study the opening sequencing at COD Manila. They have rolled out only about half of the approved tables so far... this is particularly relevant given that SC will be not so much about VIP -- a lot of mechanised tables will help with the target crowd, and adjustments will always be made as needed. I could go on but F that.
4. The banks on the financing incl some involved on LVS new rollup for Parisian. Does anyone really think a 7 bank consortium would try to press a debtor led default with cross collateral/cross default provision that may be caused by Macau govt's stupid policy (awards of tables) on table allocations if in fact they are going to be super light for Galaxy 2 and parisian and maybe even the richly deserving of tables SC? If so, you have no idea how corp finance works. They will not shoot themselves in the head we are "guessing." LOL If they do that, Tower 5, SC 2, Galaxy 3 and 4 and another 6-7 projects on the drawing boards will all become something like cultural art museums and the like -- some much for another 25-30k jobs and billions and billions of increased annual GR tax generation to build out Hengqin and surrounds.
Gaming License cont.
Seems people forget one has to have ALL casino properties vetted and fully reviewed and approved PRIOR to construction, which, while subject to mods, certainly makes it abundantly clear macau has approved all casino floors and capacities. In context, it is completely ridiculous for anyone to suggest MPEL has "no license" nor entitlement to host gaming activity at SC.
SC Table Allocation and "New" Disclosure
As for the 400 tables that need to be in place no later than October 2016? Posted on this many times here prior to them disclosing the relatively new bond indenture (prima facie red herring -- see below -- handled like that intentionally just now), but that indenture has been on file over a year now. See why reading documents as they are filed matters to serious money mgmt?
1. The 3% guidleine is not law or a rule -- it is guidance. SC ought to fare better than any other firm in terms of knocking themselves out to be responsive to the request for "diversification of tourism attractions and entertainment experiences" given all they have coming with SC when it opens 3Q. As Ho has quipped, their is going to be more diversity at Studio City than the rest of macau combined.
2. Do your own math with DICJ data, but on the established baseline, the 3% annual AVERAGE works out to some 1800 tables plus the 80 decline reported for 2014 vs 2013 which we presume was the tables WYNN and MPEL had offline last year end as VIP rooms were being redone, or call it about 250 tables apiece for the resorts currently under construction with Macau-approved development plans. Albeit current distribution of tables is skewed heavily toward the large resorts on Cotai, consider the pro forma 250 tables/per coming new properties "average" allocation per property to the roughly 170 tables/operating casino currently in Macau.
Here and in other forums, including the weakest of analysts following the group, seem to think the sky is falling on the $25b or so of new Integrated Resorts being developed on cotai right now, incl Studio City. Not the least of expressed howling that the "big bad wolf" might blow the house down is comments such as Shirley Mason (mostly janetate these days but evidenced as toast and drjackoff LOL) what 30 or so posts repeating the table disclosures from the risk factors section of the annual report on 400 tables (by October 2016) and the joker "mr.taxxx" from the old yahoo board who used to hurl racist comments at poor "tony" (the gayiam character here) and has spewed forth here at least 5x that MPEL has no gaming license, and he and others have also said MPEL is not entitled to any tables for Studio City because it has no license and that Lawrence Ho always ducks the question. I am calling bs on those idiots. Hard to believe anyone write that #$%$ is dumb enough to actually believe any of it but a few quick points to make for those who are cowering in the brick house with their 100 shares.
MPEL has a subconcession from WYNN and is what Macau govt and gaming officials call "one of the six concessionaires authorized to conduct casino and related entertainment activities [on Macau]." MPEL pays an annual fee for that bestowed authority, pays some 43% of its gaming revenues over to Macau as "gaming revenue taxes," pays in annual fees on the land concessions underlying the land leases that have Macau govt oversight and control over their casinos, and is subject to constant and continuing inspection and monitoring of all gaming activities. As for Ho "ducking the chithead question?" No one with a brain is asking that question, and Ho has made it VERY clear on the last 2 calls and to those in contact with the exec team that moving tables to SC from other venues is complicated because of the profit sharing arrangements, not a lack of authority to do so.
Woo, Chairman of GEG said:
“We continue to experience the same macro challenges as all the concessionaires in Macau.
These are the result of a combination of factors and they are impacting customer spending
behavior. That said, our business remains healthy and we continually review our operations to
ensure that both short and longer term opportunities are maximized.
The current headwinds are not a surprise to the market or to GEG. As always, we are actively
managing our properties to leverage and mitigate market conditions, maximize revenues and
manage costs, in order to drive returns.
The apparent impact these challenges have had on financial performances in the first quarter
has been exacerbated by the strength of the all-time record trading period in early 2014,
against which our current performance is compared.
We remain optimistic in the longer term outlook for Macau despite the current challenges and
we are now absolutely focused on executing the openings of Galaxy Macau™ Phase 2 and
Broadway at Galaxy Macau.
Together, these two new openings will offer some of the most exciting and diverse attractions
in Macau, appealing to every member of the family. In particular, we are pleased to welcome
two additional world class hotels, The Ritz Carlton, Macau and the JW Marriott Hotel Macau to
join the family of hotels at Galaxy Macau™. Our truly integrated resort includes new signature
features such as: the new Skytop Adventure Rapids which complement the largest skytop
wave pool in the world; the Broadway Theatre; the Broadway street entertainment district; the
Promenade and a portfolio of new MICEE and meeting venues. We are confident that the
opening of these new facilities will drive returns...
GEG is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for Macau and the Group specifically in the
medium to longer term. This confidence is supported by unchanged fundamental drivers for
growth such as increasing domestic consumption due to a fast growing affluent Chines
Galaxy released a full month earlier than usual last week to point out that while the current yoy comp is tough (as all have known for the last for 10 months), the linked Q slip is not a disaster. G rev down 32% vs market 39% and their mass was down only 16% -- boding well for "mass-oriented" MPEL and LVS given G's VIP focus). More significant is the reason they emphasized for coming a month early: they are fully focused on getting their new Galaxy 2 resort opened on May 27th [and wanted to publicly yell about Galaxy 3 and 4 and their Hengqin project as counters to the prevailing view that Galaxy 2 does little to add "diversification" other than the cool wave pool on the roof shades of LVS' MBS (Singapore).
Given G has been in talks with govt officials a couple weeks over how many tables they will get (at inception) and the buzz has been that both Galaxy and LVS' Parisian will get light allocation (rumored at as low as 100 for those two properties) and, again, that G is coming later this year with Galaxy 3 and 4 plans (another $7B USD programmed as investment in Cotai) as well as their $1B+ Hengqin development, they may (should) fare much better than just 100 tables.
If so, that will be a good precursor for Studio City getting their "fair and reasonable" share given the differential in "promoting tourism and diversification" they have coming at Studio City. As Ho has quipped, "Studio City is going to have more diversification and tourism attractions than the rest of Macau combined" -- and that is just wrt the initial phase.
Macau needs to figure it out to be sure unless they want to trade many many thousands of jobs for a few more groundskeepers mowing lawns around a multitude of new art museums that operator will build instead of integrated resorts if companies do not get "fair and reasonable" table allocations right now.
More on the table topic later when I have time.
Riot to see these complete putzes posting dozens of times to say the same bs over...
We have seen ample demonstration not one of them knows jack (drjackoff, janetate, toast) about corporate finance, debt indentures (including consents and waivers) or anything else about operator posturing happening right now in Macau...did they shake out 200 shares on this 4m share/day tape yet? LOL
Meanwhile, Galaxy's telegram last week (earnings release a month early) was refreshing and entirely consistent with the perspective 13F and exempt pm are on while adding down here. Have a read through that if you missed it.
goog GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP to get to their webpage for the release.
50 or so posts from Shirley's cabal since this yesterday? and not one of Shirley's or dougies little girlfriends worth reading. LOL
No one gives a rat's @## what these putz shorts -- several of whom known to use multiple aliases on this board alone -- are writing as they parrot what worthless/wrongway analysts have to say about weekly GGR guesses they use to project forward 18 months (LOL) and, it seems, think they can influence this tape of some 3-4m shares a day. There are about as important as the dip #$%$ girl who jumped Draghi this morning trying to
You must be paid to post as you do... clearly Shirley (janetate, toast, drjackoff, blaqnite, tahoejack and the fkuimbecile series) is not... and matrixputz and his girlfriend dthedufus98 are too stupid to be getting paid for their drivel. They repeat the same dog #$%$ over and over, but none of those clowns matter to the sector stocks.
So IVS limits might be held constant at 983 zillion mainlanders until the infrastructure projects are done, whereupon more mainlander daytrippers would be allowed? BFD... same on UnionPay ATM withdrawals... same on pay raises, same on mid-term review process.
On table allotments I've suggested since last Spring that the 3% limit cannot possibly be adhered to unless they want to discourage economic development, shooting themselves and the Golden Goose (Macau GGR) in the head. Capital will go elsewhere, and so will VIP play. If that happens MPEL and LVS are best positioned in Macau... but Manlia becomes even more valuable.
What macau wants and needs is visitors who come with financial wherewithal and stay overnight, game, dine in restaurants, go to HOD and drink/party in the clubs, etc, not group bu riders on organized "ultra cheap shopping tour daytrippers." The latter pack out Macau crevices on GWs, but they add little to the local economy, don't stay overnight, or eat or game in the establishments employing call it 98% of Macaunese people.
At $122, we'll play it again... round trip 10 or so since early 2009.
MPEL still by far the cheapest of the group given the Manila and Studio City contributions will offset the revenue crimp going on in Macau... COD manila will soon be a $1B+/yr revenue contributor -- no such offset for the others.
At present levels even MGM is too cheap now. Still, those harping that MGM is better off than the other 3 US listed Macau-centric companies apparently don't understand the difference between mass and vip, or that once WYNN and MGM have their new properties opened up next year, call it 80% of both companies' ebitda will be from Macau -- or their new properties will be a big bust.
COD manila will soon be a $1B+/yr revenue contributor...
Zhou’s trial is expected to be similar to the one conducted in August 2013 involving former Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai.
“I have a feeling the trial will be a bit like Bo Xilai’s, though I have a feeling Zhou will be much more stony-faced during it,” China analyst Raffaelo Pantucci told VOA via e-mail “I think the eagerness will be to get it done and out of the way, though with great public spectacle as the pinnacle of Xi’s new power,” he added.
Or is it more toward winding down now as Zhou and his cronies face sentencing?
"April 13, 2015
With China’s former domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang facing corruption charges after months of investigation, analysts say China is sending a stern message by making him the highest ranking Chinese official to face trial in the past three decades.
The 72-year-old former Minister of Public Security, Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission and member of the Politburo Standing Committee stands accused of bribery, abuse of power, and what is termed “the intentional disclosure of state secrets.” He was expelled from the Communist Party in December.
Zhou’s charges, according to an official statement, are “especially severe.” The statement says he “took advantage of his posts to seek gains for others, and illegally took huge property and assets from others.” Zhou “abused his power, causing huge losses to public property and the interests of the state and the people,” the statement continued.
The formal charging of Zhou came shortly after the National People’s Congress took place in March and his impending trail was announced earlier this month. Premier LI Keqiang told Congress delegates that President Xi Jinping’s fight against corruption will expand and spare no one.
Some analysts see Xi’s purge as directed as much toward neutralizing political rivals and opponents as it is toward punishing those engaging in malfeasance.
“We’ve seen at the top levels, Xi Jinping going after both of the two predecessor governments to try to keep them in check,” RAND analyst Scott Harold told VOA. “These [actions] constantly keep the pressure on those political groupings that are not already loyal to Xi Jinping and post a challenge for the Chinese government.”
Harold said the charges “suggest that what they are looking at is not simply moral failings, or engaging in corrupt activities with financial remuneration
LOL at shirley Mason ( drjackoff, toast,drjackoff, janetate,blaqnite and all the rest) full tilt below... poor little doug has been wrong on every blown "trade" until yesterday's... and now the little fella dougie tells us he "covered and then got short again today." Awesome trading, huh? 200 shares at a time per your last blaqnite slip here. LOL
But that stone throwing, adhominem glass house is still in evidence LMAO at his ridiculous commentary always and again below..
When spews about "another side to the story," doogie must mean like last january and again March 2014 when i suggested these little #$%$ trading club tarts that were hyping this would go to $75 in january 2014 -- right when I said it was overhyped and ahead of itself, explaining why we were hedging the core and twice blew out trading sleeves at just over $43... or maybe he meant the couple of dozen times I explained here why we were hedging the core with box shorts, paired shorts (and at times longs) on MGM LVS and WYNN, premium writes, etc. LOL
dicsl. We are unhedged long MPEL core at $17 (excluding the numerous hedging gains/offsets and trading gains since the big roll on in late 2012 which would drive adj basis below zero on the core) and the trade allocation just below $23), and close to putting back on an unhedged WYNN trade (long) after last week's flip out. OT Wading back onto the two fav airlines too -- trading at ~1/3 the market multiple.
One more point -- read these idiots making emphatic "sell" recommendations and note that nothing I have said is anything other than heads up points to think about -- long/short and neutral the sector names over time.... but do study the 13F players for where real capital is being committed as contrasted with these dippy daytraders using their mother's margin accounts and 200 share trades. LOL
These multialias clowns have posted at least 6-7 times herethis week that Shanghai trading has pushed the MPEL stock. LMAO.... Chinese nationals can't own U.S. listed stocks, and MPEL's shares are being delisted in HK and there is essentially no trading of the HK shares in HK, Shanghai or anywhere else.
Another example? This morning dthemoron98 changes the title of the GGR asia article to spin as if SunCity is going to focus on the arts in Macau. The real story? About two years ago SunCity's colorful CEO decided he was going to try his hand (and capital) at developing "Westernized" movies and tv through a tiny subsidiary of his well-capitalized junket (largest in the business and owning rooms in Altira, Wynn, Galaxy and others on Macau and now adding a salon in MPEL's COD Manila and Solaire). Apparently he has decided that the new focus (not of sunCity's junket operations, of that tiny media subsidiary that hasn't done anything notable since inception) is going to take up[ the banner of arts promoter in macau as part of their PR effort to remian in good stead with macau and Beijing officials.
This is not news for any of the Macau gaming companies -- more like a yawn for all of the operators.
What will be news is if the operators start scaling back capital commitment to new IR development on Macau... curtailing/mothballing further development plans will have long term impact of hengqin and surrounds, as well as Macau's little old self. Crimp hard enough on freedom to let high rollers game, party and play like high rollers (rules compliant to be sure) and the tours and operators and players will all go to places where they are welcome and where they need not avoid spotlight scrutiny.
And gee Wally, if overall Macau GGR is "flattish" as per Shirley Mason (toast/janetate/drjackoff Bain LOL), MPEL's GGR and adj ebitda will make big strides 2H15 as they will have the revenue streams not present 2H14 in Manila and from Studio City coming on 3Q.
How will the accelerating expansion of gaming in the region—in Macau, in Vietnam, in Cambodia and in South Korea— impact the Philippines?
Macau will always be number one. That’s a given. Vietnam is too far to matter in this market. Korea is foreign players only. For visitors, we have so much to offer in the Philippines. We have historical sights in the Philippines, we have beautiful beaches. As the advertisement says, “It’s more fun in the Philippines.” Tourism is showing double digit growth, but from a low base. There haven’t been official figures yet, but the total was about 5 million last year. We’re forecasting 6 million this year.
What changes has Pagcor made as a regulator that have helped create confidence in the Philippines as a gaming jurisdiction?
The first thing is transparency. Everything we do is out in the open. Second, there’s a level playing field for everyone. We have to respect what has been agreed to under the previous regime even though that was done before our team came in.
Between Pagcor and licensees, everything should be win-win. The higher the share for them, the higher the share for us: win-win. There will always be some conflicts. When this happens, it has to be discussed, and we have to look for solutions that are beneficial to all...
Was the decision regarding income-tax an example of that?
We respected the contract. We are responsible for fulfilling the contract. The matter of the tax is still being adjudicated by our Supreme Court. [After this interview, the court ruled in favor of Pagcor’s exemption, but was silent on the licensees’ obligations.] Our decision made us a whipping boy for the media. But it was in the best interests of all involved."
Clearly Manila is a great place for MPEL to be partnered up with the richest family in the Philippines, one focused on commercial real estate and business interests, and subject to friendly, "all parties should benefit" type of thinking Pagcor is running on in Manila.
"Do you like one of these two resorts better than the other?
They’ll be catering to two different markets. City of Dreams has its own markets. Your guess is as good as mine if you try to answer which one is better. I think they’ve both exceeded our expectations. First we had Resorts World Manila introducing the concept of integrated resorts as they did in Singapore. Solaire raised the bar. City of Dreams has tried to go a step further. They’re spending a lot of money promoting City of Dreams. They’ve got lots of advertisements on television. Of course, whatever City of Dreams does will have a trickle down effect on the rest of the market. It’s not a standalone property. It has the Crown Towers, it has the Nobu Hotel, it has the Hyatt. It has DreamPlay...
What’s the impact of having Melco Crown as an operator in this market?
It’s a big plus factor for Entertainment City. Melco Crown brings its networking from Macau, its connections with junkets in Macau. We have Solaire, which is a local company, and we have City of Dreams from Macau. There’s efficiency in its preparations to tap into that market. City of Dreams gives us a direct line into Macau.
...the proposition of a $10 billion [gaming] market is unlikely to be hit by 2018. Every year, we still project double digit growth. Off a low base, VIP is up 50% [for 2014], and with City of Dreams that’s a no brainer again this year.
Where will the growth come from?
Everybody is saying their focus is on the Chinese market. We have a very small attendance from the Chinese market. We’re starting here from a low base. It’s a no brainer that it will double this year. Our foreign tourism overall is growing. We get a lot of visitors from Korea, from Indonesia, from Japan and ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations], also from China. We’re not competing against Macau. We just want to be in the loop.
How will the accelerating expansion of gaming in the region—in Macau, in Vietnam, in Cambodia and in South Kore