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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 500 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    listen to the Pimco guy's interview

    by toast22342000 Jun 20, 2014 8:16 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 20, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    "Get your motors running"!

    He's one of the new deputy cio guys so he's not the lead on analysis of the sector or making the decision to own Macau companies, but he is there as the spokesman sharing the macro view of those key ideas in the now expanding equity mgmt business. Easy to give him a pass on not knowing the details but his reference to being very willing to invest in companies trading at 10-11 ebitda relative to [rev] growth of 15% was "correct" and pointed -- as long as one realizes he talking about overall street estimates for GGR being the 15% part.

    As toast notes, those who know the details, including Pimco's buyside research guys (I've been suggesting the buyside/pm on the sector largely ignore the sellside analysts in this sector) and, anyone comprehending the legit posters on this board over the last couple of years understands, MPEL is growing revenues and ebitda at significantly more twice that 15%rate! He also mentioned Macau Studio City is coming online in Macau next year, but he did not know (or at least mention) that COD Manila should be up no later than October this year (in time for Golden Week) and represents and outstanding new growth venue for the company (including the little noticed second big bump in budget for Manila -- some 25% all in this week), nor did he mention that Tower 5 at COD, what will be THE ICONIC property on the Cotai strip, will be online in 2016 or that Phase 2 of MSC will be on the heels of that... or that MPEL will likely fare brilliantly in terms of getting a concessionaire seat in Japan when it is ready for gaming there.

    Brian Sullivan's comment was revealing -- most of the street doesn't know the MPEL story up to now! Hey Sully, Packer's "Crown Resorts" is trying to build a new casino in Australia, not MPEL which is "Melco Crown Entertainment Limited". LOL

    We also love Pimco talking airlines now. Pals know we've owned DAL and ALK since late 2012, and AAL t6m. Lots of room to run higher still on those too.

  • Reply to

    the downgrades ARE GOOD..

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 18, 2014 12:15 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    matrix,
    lots of good comments here today... as for "early loss on Manila", from Jan 2013 through March 2014, they incurred in excess of $50m of preopening costs expensed through the income statement, not including the financing costs of the Manila sub or the opportunity costs of using MPEL's working capital to the extent they did.

    In that sense, the aggregate earnings picture is going to soon be improving DRAMATICALLY as they have continued to carry the staffing up costs all year now, as well as other preopening costs, without having any coincident revenue stream associated with actually opening the property prior to the Golden Week target starting october 1 this year. Remember too that the analyst group is carrying ZERO for Manila revenues -- we agree with grftt that COD Manila will hit the road running hard and they will do more than ZERO revenue there!

    As you said, $40 should be quick; our PT of $50 by the week of the Dec Q CC is feeling very solid as mass gaming is running 35%+ yoy, stronger than any analyst is carrying, and MPEL leads the pack on mass... while the weak sauce analyst group has pretty much zeroed out VIP growth yoy which will likely prove too spooked...

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Up $28 since I posted out active buying down between $1189-1191 right before lunch... we put back on all of the trade sleeve shares sold out last week at $1260...

    Hope the short putzes here are having as much fun here as they are on EXPE and TRIP... eh longs?

    MPEL about to tear out some hearts and lungs too. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    EXPE up 4% today... but some 18% since my post on May 6th. LOL

    how are all you short putzes doing on this and PCLN?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    I hope the putzes veiled out on ignore below are enjoying themselves with all the other morons short this stock.

    The tide is turning when a once well-regarded sellsider throws himself under the bus trying to help clients with a jackass downgrade this morning.

    Get your motors running...the RIP is coming now.

    p.s. to the ala3471 f head -- "a rough 3 month run ALWAYS PREDICTING THE BOTTOM AND SUCH" ???

    Just because you tried to dis me with little 6th grade girl bs, I'll call out your stupidity. I called the top was at hand at $44 and then the double top over $45 back to the 50d ema below $38, remember dufus? Ya see, that was about 3 months ago moron. As for the bottoming process, I SUGGESTED THAT OTHER THAN TAIL RISK TO $28 IN A WORSENING CHINA ECONOMY SCENARIO THAT $31.09 WAS LIKELY THE BOTTOM AS OF MAY 15 -- we did not foresee a flat GGR last week of May and evermore media and analyst bs from clueless morons such as you and the pack of dirt bags here... then a a temporary blip to just below $30 and immediate snap reversal back above $31 the next day.

    So to your particularly stupid bs, a crisp FY is my reply. Enjoy yourself in the ignore cesspool with the aptly self named putz idiotgoofball and all his multiple alias putz pals.

  • Reply to

    Common Sense

    by rsaxton26 Jun 16, 2014 1:06 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    No one who saw the movie would say it sucked... Chinese prostitutes say sucky sucky big time though. LOL

    TD2 will win the Oscars...

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    adding a bunch today... 10%+ bump coming between now and day after earnings...

  • Reply to

    Report by Morgan Stanley

    by grftt Jun 18, 2014 9:02 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    good comments guys... now we are down to just one analyst worth his salt in the sector -- Sterne Aghe's David Bain...

  • Reply to

    Report by Morgan Stanley

    by grftt Jun 18, 2014 9:02 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    They likely have prop desk positions and a few important clients short below yesterday's close. LOL

    This bs is at the end of the rope... let'em dangle.

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg Asia Japan casino vote

    by grftt Jun 17, 2014 10:51 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    the last five paragraphs make the point i was making on Rob Cox's essay in spades... thanks grftt

  • Reply to

    Macau China tolerance won't last forever

    by grftt Jun 17, 2014 11:01 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 18, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    grftt,
    Agree that this guy made many fun points about macau infrastructure and growth for years to come. Yet he apparently does not understand Macau's economics. The taxes on everything about macau, incl gaming revenues, travel and currency transfer, are the source of tremendous employment for the central planners to take credit for...

    Tianamen Square happened 25 years ago, representing the reality that chinamen were willing to die to express views contrary to the central planners ideas on control.

    One of the most insightful talking heads I've seen commented at 2:00 AM (PT) today to the effect that all of the recent noise [UnionPay, corruption crackdown apart from gaming, Visa modifications without meaningful effect] are attempts to assert influence, but in the end Macau gaming will grow rapidly and for many years to come as properties and offerings are expanded.

    Moreover, gov't officials realize that they need to appeal to other, non-Chinese patrons because other venues (incl Japan and the Philippines) are coming hard over the next several years and they will be the advantaged destinations for other ethnicities and ALSO Chinese people to the extent Rob Cox's idea of a constrained policy future for Macau unfolds "someday."

    Whether Cox or even the most controlling of Chinese govt officials like it or not, the genie is out of the bottle and will remain so if China is to get its share of the global GGR pie.

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 17, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    hey bud...
    As for conversion of OPEN shares into pcln, you don'' have that choice; it is a taxable, cash only deal. It has been fun to hear several talking heads suggest ebay or others will come with a higher bid... I doubt it, but our call to mgmt will advocate taking the breakup fee and laughing about the "one that got away" as pcln has other options and more are coming in this soon to be highly competitive referral fee restaurant service. One thing many should consider is that even if no other bid shows up prior to a 3Q close, it may be worth it to hold on if that gets one over the 12 month hurdle for LT Capital Gains treatment, regardless of whether a dreamy second bidder comes in. Our guess is that our own 2 cents shared on overpaying for OPEN was roundly said to mgt by other pm. Doubt pcln will raise the bid.

    That you minted on OPEN is another nice trade by you -- not our cup of tea.

    My wife uses pcln principally as a pricing comp tool, but often books trips (flight, hotel and car) for my kids because she believes pcln is consistently better than other OTAs or hassling directly with three different providers and cancellation/rebooking fees, etc. I know she thinks if it is flights only, she can always do better with our FF miles and Admiral's club perks.

    In the end, pcln is a growth AND value story, has ample capital and FCF, shareholder oriented mgmt, best in class execution (though EXPE's new platforms close the gaps) and is again trading cheaply relative to ebitda (you know this is a theme we love) and earnings growth. We have a serious core here, and as seen since early 2009, love to trade catalysts here. Sound familiar? Yeah, about like the gmcr, sbux, dnkn, cmg, mpel, lvs, expe, trip, dal, aal, ual,htz, car, bac, gs, wfc, and another couple handful of names we've discussed openly on various boards over the last few years.

    Fun year ahead, but pcln will be fine without any OPEN shareholders using their after tax proceeds
    to buy pcln. LOL

  • Reply to

    the cacophony of noise

    by drjackcar Jun 16, 2014 11:15 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 17, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Bedwetters? I think thsat is new usage here. LOL

    My reference has been to the nervous nellie handwringers and pantswetters, certainly including the disgenuous morons paid to bash here or doing so -- likely against policy if working for a hedge fund required to file with the SEC -- as entry level traders on pissant sleeves or interns on a demo sleeve of capital. ROFLOL

    Today was an important day in our minds... another attempt by the hedge funds/daytrader shorts to create dissonance and shakeout of retail holdings which are trivial on this company, with, as drjack called it out, more bs noise. The best part is that as I said last week, the smart guys have taken box hedges off and continue to write puts for those who want paper that will expiry worthless. LOL

    Even funnier, now even Shuli Ren ("EM" blogger at Baron's) has apparently decided she has been made a fool on the sector but has intent to redeem herself by pointing out the reality that people don't go to Macau for extended stays... a night or two is plenty for most players, even the high end players with their entourage in tow. That said, her title today reveals her true color. LOL

    For us, this morning's bs made for a great chance to add a few more chunks. Anf fun to see a few last straggling moron multialis putzes post some blithering bs... the dumbest of the dumb still involved with idiots short this name.

    Also fun to see some differentiation on MPEL/LVS vs WYNN/MGM... some apparently think the ltter two will be hurt by VIP softening... yet they don;t realize even those two are benefitting from the emphasis on mass and conversion of some VIP tours to direct (premium mass)... and that the tour operators are likely being catered to by WYNN and MGM as they pickup the slack of less focus on VIP by MPEL and LVS. June Q results will wash out the rest of the idiots who think shorting these stocks is a good idea. LOL

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jun 15, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Looks like the sky is NOT falling on china's economy after all...

    For May, retail sales rose 12.5% yoy, above the 12.1% consensus estimate. Capex was up 17.2%, also above consensus, and industrial output rose to 8.8%, level with consensus expectations. All three of these data points are best performance ytd, and note the May results also overcame the numerous one-offs and Tianamen Square quelling of travel and tourism over the last week of May.

    Given that China's VIP and premium mass players own the businesses driving this growth, looks like the doom and gloom crowd are going to have to find another sector to issue "real time market moving news" to report about. LOL

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 15, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    best to you too! I'm off to play golf with my three sons home for the weekend. As good as it gets!

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 15, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    I see under yahoo ignore veil that my little stalking putz bongload redleaf/fteetmyself from the dnkn board is still stalking. ROFLOL what a moron will do with his time. I'll have to cut and paste this respone on any new board he stalks on. Comedy and LOL

    I didn't read whatever the dope wrote here, but dippy little redleaf is likely dissing our run on dnkn from $30 to 52 as a loss (LOL) and just for fun, I'll point out that anyone who understood what we have had to say on call it every stock we've discussed on yahoo over the last three years is hugely outperforming the market - because we are.

    Those who want to audit what we have shared (it speaks for itself about our market and stockpicking success) can have fun clicking through our calls on PCLN (latest trip on at 952 after selling out the prior trip on at 595 in Dec 2012) , EXPE (long the core since last summer at 48) , TRIP (just bailed out with a quick 20% pop) , CAR (on from 9 to 29 so out too early), HTZ (22 to 28 on the core), DNKN (see above), DAL, AAL, ALK and even UAL (all except alk more than doubles), SBUX (still long from $52) , GMCR (long from 19 to 72 then short from 88 to 59 and a few positive trades since), CMG (from 65 to 240 or so -- out way too early), BAC (long since $6), GS (long from 89 to 142 so out too early), ISRG (major win from 29 to $330 and many trades around the core; recently back to long a trade and blew that out up $22 in three weeks), MGM (short from 85 to 55 then long from 6 to 14), WYNN (a dozen or so trades -- all green), MPEL (own the core at 12 but lots of quality trade sleeves -- going to $50 or so by the time Feb 2015 rolls in), ZQK (a multi-trade short party)... and so on.

    Have fun if you want to go audit that but know the recap was off the top of my head and that we posted those as we did them, not afterward. LOL I'll add that anything you might think we lost more than 5% needs further digging; you'll see that we quickly hedge or blow out ideas not working.

  • Macau spotlight, but reference other smaller markets someday -- Someone ought to tell them about COD Manila. LOL

    "Gross gaming revenue in Asia reached $63 billion in 2013 and is likely to almost double to $110 billion by 2018, helped by a rising middle class and a growing number of tourists, Goldman Sachs said in an in-depth report on the region’s gambling jurisdictions.
    There has been a 32 percent compound average growth rate in gambling revenue in Asia since the global financial crisis in 2009, compared with just 2 percent growth in the U.S., it said.
    Goldman pointed out that in the U.S. gambling took off in the 1980s, once disposable income per capita exceeded $10,000. There are now more than 75 million mainland Chinese earning that amount, with 183 million in the rest of Asia, it said.
    The Asia region will see an explosion in new supply over the next few years as new casinos are built, with 21 projects under construction, or undergoing upgrades. However, the existing pipeline suggests no excessive competition, it said, adding that may change after 2020 if Japan and Taiwan legalize casinos and new resorts are built there.
    Despite the increased competition, Goldman said Macau is unlikely to be unseated as the world’s top gambling hub and the territory remains its top pick. At the bottom of the list is Malaysia, which is seen as a mature market with declining returns. Among the smaller markets, Goldman pointed to Cambodia and Vladivostok as offering considerable opportunities.
    Goldman says Cambodia is likely to be the second-best performing market in Asia, with 19 percent CAGR in GGR through to 2018, albeit from a low base. The investment bank said low tax rates and low labour costs are giving the country an edge, offsetting the higher junket commissions being paid to attract high rollers.
    Vladivostok is also seen...

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 14, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    adavidsonnyc
    Re bailing on the trade sleeve, as in golf, sometimes lucky is better than good. LOL

    but forget that... the rest of your comments are clear thinking... and note that our far bigger core long here is at $950 which we did NOT sell that out at $1260 for two reasons. First and foremost, we expect the shares to be materially higher by EOY.

    Second, as with most hedge fund incentives, tax efficiency matters to us and we don't want to trigger the gain on one of our best ideas and biggest positions this year.

    All else equal, PCLN is one of the best big cap growth stories going and it is trading at a significant discount relative to foreseeable growth. This OPEN deal may work out well over time, but relative to ebitda, ROIC and overall growth, it doesn't really matter if it only works out marginally.

    Our baseline PT modeling comfortably supports $1400+ by EOY, and if you have been around since even just $595 in December 2012, you know we are decent stockpickers. LOL

  • Reply to

    WHY IT'S TIME TO GET LARGE ON THIS AGAIN

    by squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 4:20 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 14, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    idbtc dip S,

    "Saying it the way I'm seeing it" is a riot...

    Your comments reflect ignorance and stupidity, and you calling me dumb is also a riot. You have no idea how much I know about valuation, deal making and tax free reorg... but I was not trying to explain any of that -- simply point out what pm would have preferred if they are long OPEN. Those long PCLN got the cash deal they would have preferred as is obvious. I'll also pass on discussing incentive payouts for hedge fund pm... but taxes figure large in after tax efficiency. LOL

    As for stock vs cash, the only reason to prefer cash is if you think yesterday little trim was permanent. Those who want out for "cash" won't get more than the tender; in a stock deal, they would have been able to hedge out the downside, sell out the OPEN stock, or let the upside run as PCLN ROARS up $100 or more by the end of July.

    Remember I sold out the trade sleeve at $1260 (put on again at $1120) on Wednesday and then suggested the stock would see $1200 or even $1175 yesterday while the premarket tape painted up $8? Yeah, see, that's because I understand the capital markets, this sector and this company.

  • Reply to

    Macau tourism.....

    by grftt Jun 13, 2014 5:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jun 13, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    great stuff grftt... VIP may be in a brief lull (the growth curve is certainly being flattened by MPEL and others hooking up premium mass directly... but as you shared above, mass visitation is up 10%+ and that data set has a long ramp years into the future.

    A while back I posted some ytd date on MCE growth this year... MCE activity is up significantly -- early days on that too, incl sporting events that will continue to take the book away from Vegas.

    Mass GR is cranking over 35% growth ytd, and MPEL's positioning to dominate Manila with COD opening there later this year and to have a dramatic increase in overall Cotai footprint (Studio city, then Tower 5 at COD and then Phase 2 at Studio City) combined with GR growth in the existing footprint will enable MPEL to ramp hard and more than double the adj ebitda run rate by EOY 2016. EPS growth for MPEL is also poised to grow faster than any of the U.S. listed companies...

    Before long, we'll all be having fun saying things like "Wasn't it ridiculous when all the dip S "analysts" and pseudo-journalists were recuding ratings in early summer 2014, just like they did in 2009 and then again in 2012 -- each time RIGHT BEFORE THE STOCKS TOOK OFF AGAIN as the niche is exceedingly well positioned to outperform most all other sectors." Yeah, these people are terrific contra-indications when they yell "the sky is falling"... it happens over and over again, right at the bottom.

KKD
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