As noted a few times here, this stock won't be a "chart buy" until the stock crosses back above the 200d ema on heavy volume, but the chart is suddenly looking constructive for those who can process what I wrote last week about the successful retest (rejection) of the July 2013 low last week -- not just for MPEL but also LVS and WYNN as noted then. These shares are up some 14% since as the buysiders pull hedges on the difference between "illicit money transfers" and Chinese law compliant VIP operations/money transfers and the quality/texture of Xi Jinping's scripted remarks endorsing Macau and encouraging further diversification. Those who are dialed in to MPEL's business plan and "best in group diversification of offerings" of Macau's Integrated Resorts understand MPEL is accomplishing Beijing's objectives better than any other operator on Macau; the cinematically-themed Studio City (phase 1) will be further transformational for MPEL, almost doubling MPEL's room count on cotai (and macau for that matter) and quickly become the pedestal example of new world order diversification.
More excellent news on was filed on the ongoing buyback program to reflect additional buyback activitiy on Friday. While Jinping was at the microphone, MPEL took in another 836,012 shares, bringing the cumulative total to 8,105,534 shares (ADS equiv) purchased over the last consecutive 11 days in a row. Great to see the two co chairmen/billionaires controlling some 68% of the outstanding shares make this statement about the future of MPEL and its stock... on top of the ~$100m repurchased last Q around $27/share, so far this Q they have invested another $200,000,000 of recent ebitda in the discounted shares....
Lucky 8s.... LOL
This dthe98 has been a "negative commentary only" comedian all along here, starting last year when he told us how China was going to collpase on providing stimulus (right when they were reining in bank lending and real estate development and imposing realty investment restrictions). He is one of the naysayers herewho didn't get the memo that Jinping is very supportive of macau and its value to itself, surrounding commercial development and china, and that, unlike Taiwan and Hong Kong, Xi is very supportive of Macau's new leadership and program ahead.
The only thing getting slammed in Macau during Xi Jinping's visit and commentary is those geniuses shorting the stock are getting their padoinks slammed in the door.
as you drill into the "crackdown with about a dozen or so new articles from around the globe, you'll quickly learn that the new regime has shut down internet broadcasting into China by Bloomberg, the Guardian, the NYT, and other reputable media outlets that have had the berries to point out just how hypocritical this "corruption crackdown" really is... comforting to note that despite all of that, at least the 15 or so largest VIP tours continue to game with about 80% of the aggregate $ played at peak... even if the real estate crimping (now being reversed on bank loosening and rate cuts as well as easing restricitons) and bank flexibility curbs put in place a year ago have essentially eliminated all of the marginal/smaller junkets.
Btw, did I mention that it is not "illegal" to transfer money to settle debts, or to transfer money within the established Chinese rule of law, or to settle debts with tour operator on the mainland, or to settle debts with the IR operators with funds from any of many possible other established banking relationships that elite wealthy Asians have set up with gaming establishments around the world?
How about an article recapping Xi Jinping's praise of things going well in Macau, including the very real efforts of companies actually doing MUCH to diversify Jinping's favored ideas on "diversification" in addition to casinos, incl entertainment, retail shopping, theaters (yes, see his press kit)... one can think of all of that as a tip of the hat to MPEL's business plans and unique entertainment offerings (COD's House Dancing Water, Studio City, retail mall overhaul, etc)...
There you go Shuli and Detar... write an article about that... just be sure to avoid talking about Xi Jinping's wealth or you will likely get shut down by Beijing as has happened to real media outlets.
At least 3 morons here continue to reveal how little they know about the "corruption crackdown" and Xi Jinping's desire to eradicate "corruption", particularly as it involves political figures. These same putzes continue to broadcast their ignorance about how VIP is permanently smashed (apparently they do not understand that still some 80% of last year's peak junket revenue is still happening in even the three worst/most recent months) and now adding in clueless comments like new "permanent anticorruption office" will forever shine intense scrutiny on things such as transferring money, bank account reveiws, and, OMG, Unionpay clearing accounts.
What a bunch of dog S.
Xi jinping has now made it abundantly clear, such that the buyside began pulling hedges last week, that what Beijing seeks to stop is the "illicit transfer" away from China of ill-gotten wealth. Here's the news these F head intern bashers and apparently their dip #$%$ HF mgr bosses do not grip: it is not illegal to play baccarat in Macau on legitimate junket tours. Reality: the "crackdown" is all about quashing airing of Xi Jinping and his family's wealth, eliminating dissension (stuffed HK tents and the umbrella brigrade who thought they would go to Macau to protest for Jinping), "Fox Hunting" and punishing enemies of the new regime (incl seeking extradition of the 100 or so political refugees from China now in the U.S., which the Russian press suggests is the U.S. being unwilling to send political enemies of Jinping to their execution in China) -- not about crushing
Macau, the Golden Goose.
"China's next president has amassed a fortune running into hundreds of millions of pounds, according to a hugely damaging new report. The revelation comes as the Communist party faces increasingly difficult questions about how its leaders, who are paid ministerial salaries of just £8,000-a-year, live such gilded lives"
goog the article and search "XI Jinping family wealth"
Through the close in China yesterday, MPEL has repurchased shares 10 days in a row, buying back a total of 7,269,522 shares. with a total value in excess of $175,000,000. How about those last four days at 895,000 all four days? We know 8 is a lucky number in chinese culture, and fun to point out that 7 of the 10 days of activity had "8" as the first digit of 800,000+ shares for the activity level. :)
As note on other threads, we pulled the WYNN hedge a while back and both the partials with MGM as the offset to the group takedown in recent days and have been back to 100% long MPEL since the idiots shorting pushed this down to the retest of the July 2013 low at $21. Just can't thank them enough for that chance to add to MPEL so incredibly dislocated as well.
What a prelude to Xi Jinping's visit today and MPEL essentially doubling its footprint with manila (right now) and Studio City (phase 1) in about 7-8 months.
The stock is up 13% since my post on this chart perspective two days ago... and gee, Xi Jinping hasn't said a peep about shutting down gaming yet. LOL
hope all the "cee unty" bashers here are having fun since. Getting their little heads caved in couldn;t happen to dumber awipes.
From the party recap this morning:
"...Amid a tune of welcome played by the Macao Police Band, the smiling president waved to hundreds of representatives from various walks of life and school children holding national flags and Macao SAR flags to greet him.
Xi told reporters at the airport that he was delighted to visit Macao again since his last trip to the SAR five years ago.
The president said he was glad to be here “to celebrate with Macao compatriots the festival of great historical significance and convey the good wishes of the central government and all Chinese people to Macao compatriots.”
Xi said he was willing to visit local residents, review with them the development of the Macao SAR over the past 15 years and discuss plans for Macao’s long-term development.
The president expressed his belief that Macao will progress in a more steady manner on the right track, guided by the “one country, two systems” policy and the Basic Law."
Jinping is also reported to have banned Umbrella there today, even though it is drizzling. LOL He has also expressed total confidence in the new regime, including Leung, the new Finance Minister of Macau.
Recall he is also interested to see the progress toward diversifying the elephant in the pink tut toward learning new dance steps (diversification) to have more entertainment, shopping, dining, MCE and other tourist/cultural attractions since his last visit [in 2009]... LVS (MCE stuff), MPEL (House of Dancing Water and soon Studio city, the cinematically themed IR, and WYNN (with the Palace's new coliseum and exterior 8 acre lake shades of Bellagio's lake on the Vegas strip) should put all three of those in fabulous position to garner praise (and seriously large table allocations)... as for the other operators there? Not so much in the way of "diversification" away from gaming.
good to hear from you grftt... we have also added here and as you can see, the dweeb hedge funds and their little multialias, intern "bashers" are back here. Good to see that as the squirm is likely just starting, and fun to note the shares MPEL and others (incl you and us) have been sourced by new algo sell program trades over the last two weeks. Matrixputz/blaqnite/idiotpumper/fcaunyc/fkuimbecile/sheetwise and whatever his other 5 or so aliases calling for $17 now is especially noteworthy, a siren at the successful retest of the July 2013 low at $21 as noted on another thread yesterday. btw, also covered in the offset short on MGM (again) late yesterday on the late drop (along with WYNN, our pair hedges for MPEL of late) -- the big picture is that all of these Macau names are washed out and while the nutty HF shorts can push them down while 13F players are hedging global events and even convince rags like the HK Post to publish bs articles like the one they did Monday, those who can think are on the buyside of the shorting/panic selling. We do not want to be short anything in the sector with the new Finance Minister coming in tomorrow along with Xi Jinping's visit.
Great trade on BABA. As you know, we ran yhoo from w ave $40 to $51+. Following that trade, we opened on BABA at $106 last week, a few days early in hindsight, but with a pair short on yhoo. Covered in yhoo yesterday, long a good slug of BABA anticipating a runup into earnings.
As you know, we've also minted on PCLN, EXPE and the airlines several round trips over the last few years. Pulled the box short on PCLN yesterday at $1050 and currently running SAVE on the bs drop last week (long at $68.50). Reloaded CAR at $49 (stupid cheap on cfo comments at conference) and back to long on HTZ and TRIP again as of yesterday -- like the gamers, just too cheap on bs shorting/hedging of late.
OT to gaming...
Lee was on cnbc today and commented on SD (less than thrilled and sitting on a big loss) and Atlas (which he is adding too)... but remember that Lee and his team certainly understand hedging downsides and likely have either boxed them or paired them against other names that have gone down with the group.
My partner flipped a small trade on the afternoon drop on BBG today (out with a mere 4% scalp LOL), but still early to play with real allocation and for more than a trade. Again, we'll be running the big cap E&P names if things go way off before this oil and gas collapse is over (today's short-covering rally in oil may prove to be a head fake... the Saudis are not playing bush league ball here).
excellent, erudite comments... are you from the region?
I don't waste my time with thumbs up or down, but i just gave you thumbs up on that!
Now you sound just like matrixputz. "Promoting?" Is that what suggesting some might want to sell or hedge some or all of their shares at $43 last january was? How about reloading the trading allocation at the $37-38 level for the run up into the double top retest in march where I explained why we sold out again there?
Your comments are thin here toast... I'm not "promoting" anything, more at sharing perspective with respect for all but those tools trying to dis me -- they deserve their share of kicks to the face.
fwiw, I have yet to cover the MGM hedge... there is lots of room for market chop, and anyone who has concerns about the downside here should have been hedging or sold out long ago. Down here, it is time for spec capital to get back to long or add to positions -- unless you think Xi Jinping wants to turn Macau into a ghost town ala Atlantic City... his new finance minister being sworn in on Friday has a far better outlook for Macau and its "edge" if you have been doing some remeidal reading shared here.
toast, you have long been one of the quality posters here with pro and con perspective.
While matrixtrade, the moron who was hyping his PT of $75 for MPEL this year -- the same week i explained why we sold out the then trading sleeve at $43 and hedged the $17 core back to the first dip to the 50d ema around $37.50 then) continues with his blithering stupidity about how the analysts are brilliant, the reality is that all but one of them still had a BUY rating and the consensus target was $51 until the first week in August when Zhou (China's former security chief succeeded by the new guy in the news this week with dippy HK "newspaper" saying they are going to Fox Hunt all the crooks and review large/suspicious money transfers in Macau and mainland banks which was already happening all year) was arrested for gross fraud and Ho reset expectations on mass (from 35%+ ytd and for 2h VIP "recovery" to VIP staying subdued and mass to run at half that rate (before the recent table reclasses to VIP for smoking purposes).
So now, as even the shorts posting s head commentary here all month are pointing out that most analysts are sukin, those "listening to the analysts" are likely to wind up on thew wrong end of the reversal, just like they did in late 2012 and mid 2013 and early 2014 and reloading the dip before the retest/double top in March...
Seriously toast, the "analysts" are F worthless on this sector. On the airlines, oil& gas, banks and many sectors there are several excellent analysts, but seemingly only Bain actually talks to the exec teams even... the rest can;t even get the facts correct most of the time, let alone share worthwhile insights.
and "So far this month" -- this is the Xi Jinping month... LOL
Have a study of a quality log chart on these and MGM and you'll see why MGM is the step down hedge of choice vs the MPEL long of late (WYNN is beat enough) tumbling the hardest this week. For it to catch up with the other three, MGM needs to test $13 -- down another $4. Market savvy players know that when groups are trading on panic and disinformation, the stocks all want go together, whether that is to the downside (currently on FUD and the bs that "illicit money transfers by those committing fraud against the Chinese govt" somehow means Beijing wants to kill wealthy people gambling in Macau) or to the upside.
Since then, MPEL has gone from 70% of its revenues being from VIP to last Q where only 5% of ebitda was from VIP for MPEL... and Manila is opened, Studio City phase 1 opens in 7-8 months and Tower 5 at COD is under construction.
and oh, last time I checked, MPEL has no shady VIP tours illegally transferring money through Macau banks, let alone in any way involving MPEL's treasury operations..
Looking forward to Xi Jinping's media kit and speeches in two days.
It is no fun owning shares when they drop, but you might search the terms "box short" and "paired trade" here... those who have hedged to reduced net longs or neutral exposure positions over time, even if only when I've noted we have here, use those hedge positions to eliminate, mitigate losses in chop periods...
Being long MPEL and MGM magnifies your downside exposure to one or the other... that is just the opposite of mitigating risk. Our step down hedge pairs have been WYNN and especially MGM as noted here prior. That said, MGM is certainly playing catch up this week... down 8% today -- about to cover that again as even MGM is too cheap down here, especially given Jinping is unlikely to say Macau needs to be eliminated when he arrives Friday and the new Finance Minister is seated the same day.
On hedging and playing the upside when the group stops vomiting on itself on bs headlines fed to the media and weak analysts by HF net short the stocks (while MPEL and LVS stand on the buyback throttles), you might also want to study MPEL's ebitda... that WYNN, MGM and Galaxy have large exposure to VIP dropping perhaps for more than a few weeks or months in Macau (the market is now beginning to figure out that those stocks need to come down a bunch vs LVS and MPEL moves to date) is not the same thing as "GR getting worse," nor is it a reality that "gaming is past" [sic] in Macau, though I agree the Vegas heydays ended when Asian players had better places to play without flying 15 hours each way to play in Vegas for one night.
That is the same (highest to date) number as the day before and makes it 8 days in a row and a total of 5,479,522 shares....
Apparently Lawrence Ho and Jim Packer think buying more MPEL stock down here is worthwhile.
Xi is coming Friday... out to kill Macau and its surrounding $100B+ investment in economic development, or bringing some logical and conciliatory comments that Macau has a bright future along with China in the area... but no one who is a criminal should try to divert ill gotten money away from China and their Fox Hunt...
Re "fighting city hall," why fight when you can think instead? It certainly has been a rough time for macau names, but lots of stocks are in the s'er these days -- for how long and the turnaround, if any, timeframe is what is relevant. In the interim, no one is forcing your or any of the 13F owners to buy or hold this or any other stock. If you don;t like the upside risk reward here, you should be out, literally or synthetically at least. Ultimately, risk reward is the totality of every quality decision to allocate/protect capital.
Noted many time here, but you could have sold out/ hedged a bunch of low basis shares last january and march when I suggested it may make sense for many to do, or after Ho's "reset" of mass expectations in early August, or as the Zhou arrest news was hitting the tape at the same week as shared right here.
Those would have all been good times to think about gain preservation/ selling calls and or shorting the box to eliminate, neutralize or merely buffer your downside... or pair the long here with a short on other names that have far more downside expsure if Beijing is, in the end, actually out to eliminate VIP play. THAT is a far different objective than hunting down criminals ("fox hunt" targets -- who have fraudulently garnered megawealth in china and then transferred it out of China via "illicit" channel;s having nothing to do with VIP cages and baccarat.
All that said, high beta names across the board (NFLX, TSLA, AMZN, GPR , many retail names, gaming companies, railroads, tanker/shipping cos, the oil leassees/frackers have been hammered this year and especially lately)... and selling in panic drops usually benefits no one except for the unhedged shorts. In fact, it may be that brighter times are just ahead... in the volatility chop this week, seems to some that the smart guys are buying all the daytraders and algo programs will short to them, including MPEL's aggressively taking in shares down here.
Congrats to Shuli Renn - she actually wrote a balanced piece this morning, the totality of which is to make fun of the "news" of the South China Morning Post article that created more FUD for Macau stocks over the last couple days in the US markets. But read it all well before jumping out any windows... the "Fox Hunt" concept of tracking down ILLICIT money transfers is decidedly NOT NEW, nor is reviewing suspicious bank transfers through macau or anywhere else in China.
Some may realize that it is NOT illegal for junkets to legally raise money to fund client play in Macau... that is how things have long worked in Macau.
As for other markets, Sy and his pals in the Philippines likely do not engage in massive fraud or illegal money transfers, and China does not control non-Chinese banks anyway... same for wealthy Japanese, taiwan or Korean patrons playing baccarat anywhere they want to.
Good to see MPEL continuing to buyback stock with both hands while the getting is cheap... 7 days in a row with serious buys, and yesterday's the biggest yet. More IMF today as well, and Jinping is coming Friday. Haven;t seen the press kit yet...
Chewy market these days, back on chop with step offset MGM as the pair again (short), the favorite for this since MGM is still overvalued vs the group, and LVS and WYNN have already caught up with MPEL...
Given 95% of MPEL ebitda last Q was mass play and continues to have the highest table yields, MPEL remains the best positioned to weather this chop of the broader market and group... so it is overdue to see the other three US listed compnaies come in hard.